Betting MARKETS and Events

[Robert Fischer]

every race is a betting market. The whole card is a market. the whole simulcast schedule is a market. the whole year is a market.

every few years someone does a paper on the Favorite-Longshot bias.

A general study that says extreme favorites are underbet, while longshots are overbet... Now they mostly do replica studies of Ziemba ...Gramm...

Del Mar & Saratoga yadayadayada

Large Pools (ie. feature race or grade1 classic)
They attribute the decrease in Favorite-Longshot bias within Large-Pools to an increase in Professionals("informed bettors")


This is all very interesting.

As someone who has worked to make a profit on betting against or "laying" longshots, I can say that at least a good portion of the regular Fav.-LS bias can be written off on the accumulation of wagers on horses with nearly zero chance to win the race.


But what happens after an "Event" in the market? It sure is hard to beat a 1/5 favorite - but what happens AFTER he does get beat? How do the participants react if the 1/5shot gets beat in the feature race of the day???

do they bet longshots on the last race of the day?? do they fold and go home? Do they over-bet the favorite?

What if that 1/5 shot WINS the feature? do the market participants bet more on the final race?

How does the betting public react to events?


:p

[betovernetcapper]

As far as on track betting is concerned, I'm sure there is a certain reaction, maybe more stabbing to attempt to get even on the last race.
Off track US daytime racing starts on the East coast and gradually goes through 4 time zones. People start betting at 10 am CST and continue to 11 pm CST. Now that you've brought it up does what happens in one market, say New York, effect the betting later on Ca races? If so how much and in what way?

[Robert Fischer]

As far as on track betting is concerned, I'm sure there is a certain reaction, maybe more stabbing to attempt to get even on the last race.
Off track US daytime racing starts on the East coast and gradually goes through 4 time zones. People start betting at 10 am CST and continue to 11 pm CST. Now that you've brought it up does what happens in one market, say New York, effect the betting later on Ca races? If so how much and in what way?

That is an excellent point.
We have to treat the whole simulcast schedule as a market. Where is the money as a whole going? What happens after "Events"? Is it predictable?

[rokitman]

every race is a betting market. The whole card is a market. the whole simulcast schedule is a market. the whole year is a market.

every few years someone does a paper on the Favorite-Longshot bias.

A general study that says extreme favorites are underbet, while longshots are overbet... Now they mostly do replica studies of Ziemba ...Gramm...

Del Mar & Saratoga yadayadayada

Large Pools (ie. feature race or grade1 classic)
They attribute the decrease in Favorite-Longshot bias within Large-Pools to an increase in Professionals("informed bettors")


This is all very interesting.

As someone who has worked to make a profit on betting against or "laying" longshots, I can say that at least a good portion of the regular Fav.-LS bias can be written off on the accumulation of wagers on horses with nearly zero chance to win the race.


But what happens after an "Event" in the market? It sure is hard to beat a 1/5 favorite - but what happens AFTER he does get beat? How do the participants react if the 1/5shot gets beat in the feature race of the day???

do they bet longshots on the last race of the day?? do they fold and go home? Do they over-bet the favorite?

What if that 1/5 shot WINS the feature? do the market participants bet more on the final race?

How does the betting public react to events?


:pSmart thinkin, Bobby.