What's the case for Pace?

[Capper Al]

Okay, the question is rhetorical. As far as myself, I started a C++ class at the local community college to write a handicapping program. I used to code many years ago. I need to review my assumptions before I start coding. That's why I post things like "Why use Speed figures at All?" and now "What's the case for Pace?" I know there are some hard held beliefs about these topics. That doesn't excuse them from being examined. If these beliefs are good then they'll stand up under the light of examination.

When a capper says a horse has early speed, do we really know what he means? Quirin looks at first call by position. Many look at the second call by velocity. There are many more other schemes out there using velocity at the first call, or position/lengths at the second, and some factor last call into the picture.

We've been talking about the book "The Match UP 2". Take a look on page 68. BRIS has running styles posted from race 8 at Pimlico on May 20, 2006. Here's BRIS (Quirin) -- The Hat next to each other for each horse in the race:

P 2 -- S
E/P 5 -- E/P
E 7 -- E/P
E/P 3 -- S
E/P 2 -- E/P
P 4 -- S
E/P 5 -- E
They're not the same fellas. The horse in post #4, Our Peak, gets an E/P from BRIS while an S from the Hat. That's a big difference. Horse #5, gets an E/P from both BRIS and The Hat with a speed point rating of '2'? '2' is slow and by definition shouldn't be considered an early horse. Is this consistency? If pace analysis has merit should not both camps come to about the same conclusions? This might explain how many times our Early Speed horse ends up at the back of the pack at the first call. I have witnessed what Andy Beyer said that when Speed fails Pace can usually explain why a horse won. But how would we know this before the race? And by whose pace figures? If they differ so much whose would we use to make our selection by? Is there a case for Pace?

[DJofSD]

Wow! Too many questions for me to tackle.

The observation about BRIS designation differing from what Jimmy assigns is a good insight. It's one I've posted before. If you understand the fundamentals of the two different approaches use to derive the label then you are ahead of the crowd.

When speed fails the winner can be explained by pace? What? Who says speed is not a pace factor? If you've ever heard Jimmy explain how he looks at a race, he'll tell you in that Okie way 'one horse goes out in front and the others try to catch him.' Certainly understanding when a so called early horse is at a disadvantage in todays race is a way to find a false favorite.

Is there a case for pace? You tell me. (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=38859&page=1&pp=15) Is it the end all and be all? No. Can you use it for every single race? No. But it is a great arrow to have in your quiver.

[joeyreb]

is the Bris rate from their PPs??

So, I noticed that the Bris Rating [in their PPs] relays way too much on the horse's previous race...

I 've used their PPs in the past, I saw an example last year where Bris rated a horse that was classic E/EP horse an S because the horse has trouble at the gate and gave the field 5-6 lgths in her last race.

I think in rating a horse a running style you need to look at several races and use the style the horse is the most effective or what pattern shows up the most

[GaryG]

BRIS running style designations are best ignored. It doesn't take long to do them yourself and then you know they are correct. Running style assignments are the first thing that I do when analyzing a race.

[Cratos]

Okay, the question is rhetorical. As far as myself, I started a C++ class at the local community college to write a handicapping program. I used to code many years ago. I need to review my assumptions before I start coding. That's why I post things like "Why use Speed figures at All?" and now "What's the case for Pace?" I know there are some hard held beliefs about these topics. That doesn't excuse them from being examined. If these beliefs are good then they'll stand up under the light of examination.

When a capper says a horse has early speed, do we really know what he means? Quirin looks at first call by position. Many look at the second call by velocity. There are many more other schemes out there using velocity at the first call, or position/lengths at the second, and some factor last call into the picture.

We've been talking about the book "The Match UP 2". Take a look on page 68. BRIS has running styles posted from race 8 at Pimlico on May 20, 2006. Here's BRIS (Quirin) -- The Hat next to each other for each horse in the race:

P 2 -- S
E/P 5 -- E/P
E 7 -- E/P
E/P 3 -- S
E/P 2 -- E/P
P 4 -- S
E/P 5 -- E
They're not the same fellas. The horse in post #4, Our Peak, gets an E/P from BRIS while an S from the Hat. That's a big difference. Horse #5, gets an E/P from both BRIS and The Hat with a speed point rating of '2'? '2' is slow and by definition shouldn't be considered an early horse. Is this consistency? If pace analysis has merit should not both camps come to about the same conclusions? This might explain how many times our Early Speed horse ends up at the back of the pack at the first call. I have witnessed what Andy Beyer said that when Speed fails Pace can usually explain why a horse won. But how would we know this before the race? And by whose pace figures? If they differ so much whose would we use to make our selection by? Is there a case for Pace?

Early speed by any definition is a horses innate ability to run fast early in a race. However speed is always bounded by CLASS. That is a lower class horse with early speed will probably not show that same speed at a higher class.

In summary, speed and class are “joined at the hip.”

[Kelso]

a lower class horse with early speed will probably not show that same speed at a higher class.


I've seen this thought expressed in other PA threads and can't yet understand it.

A fast-but-cheap horse will very likely be overtaken by a "slower" but classier horse. That makes sense. But why won't the cheapie still run up to his ability against the other? In fact, I would expect him to run faster against tougher competition than he would in an "easier" race.

Would someone kindly venture an explanation of the logic at play here? Why are horses expected to slow down against tougher competition? Thank you.

[DJofSD]

Call it horse psychology.

The classier animal looks the other in the eye and intimidates the other.

Out in the wild, those at the rear are more likely to be preyed upon. Faster, high ranking animals are closer to the front with the alpha members.

[The Judge]

Clearly BRIS is using some math formula and "The Hat" is using eyeball scan to determine running style. I think eyeball is best.

Pace explains how a race run, it explains why 110 flat run 44 to the half is better in most cases (not all) then a 110 flat run 45 to the half, when these two horses meet. It shows that it matters how a horse expends its energy and how the track itself my determine the best running style for a horse to be successful. All things being equal fast early is a plus.

Beyers does make the concession that when speed rating fail pace can usually explain why. How do you tell before a race? I think its a matter of choosing your weapons before the race is run, if you believe in pace stick with pace if you believe in speed ratings stick to those, if you use both more power to you. Using both most people have a minimum that a horse must meet even if a horse can run 45 flat to the 1/2 he must be able to come home insay 26 flat or he isn't a play or must be able to run a 74 speed rating or he isn't a play.

[Kelso]

Call it horse psychology.

The classier animal looks the other in the eye and intimidates the other.

Out in the wild, those at the rear are more likely to be preyed upon. Faster, high ranking animals are closer to the front with the alpha members.

Thank you, DJ. That makes sense to me as to how the lesser horse is passed more easily than his raw ability might otherwise suggest; but I think it leaves open the question of why a horse should actually run slower (than previous races) as a consequence of being outclassed. (Guess it also makes a case for blinkers on the speed horse ... the later to catch "the eye" of the alpha?)

[Greyfox]

Okay, the question is rhetorical.....That's why I post things like "Why use Speed figures at All?" and now "What's the case for Pace?"

So offer something different. The fact is you don't.
Rhetorical threads are only useful to masssage the needy.
The exception to that is when they have an actual
insight to improving anyone's handicapping skill.


Your last post on Speed took hundreds of arguments.
This one will too.
The bottom line is you are asking, the rhetorical.
My prediction is that this thread will end up will going hundreds of posts.
My prediction is it will not change anyone's handicapping ability one iota.
If you don't want to use Pace and Speed, then tell us what you want to use.
And I'm not into astrology.
I'll check back at post 200+

[GameTheory]

So offer something different. The fact is you don't.
Rhetorical threads are only useful to masssage the needy.
The exception to that is when they have an actual
insight to improving anyone's handicapping skill.


Your last post on Speed took hundreds of arguments.
This one will too.
The bottom line is you are asking, the rhetorical.
My prediction is that this thread will end up will going hundreds of posts.
My prediction is it will not change anyone's handicapping ability one iota.
If you don't want to use Pace and Speed, then tell us what you want to use.
And I'm not into astrology.
I'll check back at post 200+And if you don't want to talk about the subject of the thread you are posting in, why do you? Let the thread go its 200+ posts and you can feel free to ignore it...

[46zilzal]

We've been talking about the book "The Match UP 2". Take a look on page 68. BRIS has running styles posted from race 8 at Pimlico on May 20, 2006. Here's BRIS (Quirin) -- The Hat next to each other for each horse in the race:

P 2 -- S
E/P 5 -- E/P
E 7 -- E/P
E/P 3 -- S
E/P 2 -- E/P
P 4 -- S
E/P 5 -- E
They're not the same fellas. The horse in post #4, Our Peak,
All of this means nothing without a track profile and the distance along with the segmental velocities.

There are "degrees" of early that have to be considered and by velocity not position.

[46zilzal]

They're not the same fellas. The horse in post #4, Our Peak, gets an E/P from BRIS while an S from the Hat. That's a big difference. Horse #5, gets an E/P from both BRIS and The Hat with a speed point rating of '2'? '2' is slow and by definition shouldn't be considered an early horse. Is this consistency? If pace analysis has merit should not both camps come to about the same conclusions? This might explain how many times our Early Speed horse ends up at the back of the pack at the first call. I have witnessed what Andy Beyer said that when Speed fails Pace can usually explain why a horse won. But how would we know this before the race? And by whose pace figures? If they differ so much whose would we use to make our selection by? Is there a case for Pace?

It is the STYLE that the horse can adapt to that is considered. You have to find that style to which the horse best adapts then decide if that is the place he will be today. Can this one change? if not it is a simple pass.

The vast majority of the time, if it comes down to two, the earlier horse wins 8 out of 10 times at the courses I follow.

[Hosshead]

Thank you, DJ. That makes sense to me as to how the lesser horse is passed more easily than his raw ability might otherwise suggest; but I think it leaves open the question of why a horse should actually run slower (than previous races) as a consequence of being outclassed. (Guess it also makes a case for blinkers on the speed horse ... the later to catch "the eye" of the alpha?)
The late Ray Talbout used to use the situation you just described as a classic example of being outclassed.
He said that class was the reason that the lessor classed horse would get beat in a time that was slower than he normally runs.

Plus keep in mind that running styles are also changed by the class makeup of "todays" race.
For example a classy speed horse can come from off the pace in a field he outclasses. (Because the jock is just sitting on him, letting him run well "within himself").
However IMO, cheap speed moving up in class, almost always HAS to go wire to wire to win.
They usually don't pass a classier horse in the stretch.

[Spiderman]

The pace designations provided by brisnet are never revised. A runner may change racting tactic in the course of his career.

I utilize real race time to a mucher greater extent than the ep and lp #s. Knowing the 'run-up' time for separate tracks is an important factor: a runner may go the half at MTH in :44, but don't expect that clocking to be repeated at BEL.

Comparative analysis of each entrant is required for basis of selections.

[DanG]

Call it horse psychology.

The classier animal looks the other in the eye and intimidates the other.

Out in the wild, those at the rear are more likely to be preyed upon. Faster, high ranking animals are closer to the front with the alpha members.
While I agree with DJ & Cratos that there is an unspoken class hierarchy within the animal kingdom that horses are not immune to…I don’t agree that this necessarily manifests itself early in a sprint for example.

The true “class” of a thoroughbred is played out exponentially over distance. The difference in standard deviation at 6f for example is 75% greater in the 3rd fraction than the 1st on average.

I submit if their was a 1f BC race you would see a far different “class” of animal have a legitimate shot than at 2f...A far better shot at 2f, than at 3f…etc.

[nobeyerspls]

From the example shown it seems that pace figures, like speed figures, are subjective. On that earlier long thread, many that use speed figures pointed out that they do not use the beyers, either adjusting them or making their own. That may be present here as well.
I read some material on pace figures and, for lack of a better way to say it, they seem to put a very fine digital point to an analog event. In the first segment of a race horses will stumble at the gate, rear up, hop, or just be slammed. Then too, the outside lone speed will run diagonally to the rail thus taking a longer route through the first quarter. In the last segment of a race not all horses are hard ridden. If third place is locked up with no chance of being second or fourth, the rider might just ease the horse to the wire. During the middle of a race horses will swing wide or some will check and take another route. Within this, the pace analysis is done using 1/100ths of a second and a judgement most be made regarding the condition of the surface, wind speed and direction, and temperature. A daunting task at the least.

Having said that, there are some pace handicappers on here who are very good at finding winners and, more important to me, they can find some at a decent price.

There are non-quantified ways that people incorporate pace, the middle-move for example, or the Z pattern, or uncontested lone speed. Some turf handicappers are very interested in the raw time of the final quarter. So, perhaps subjectivity rules the roost with pace, quantified or not, just another piece of the puzzle. At another level, the past performances, including pace and speed, are not relevant. There will be something very subtle present that predicts an otherwise unexpected superior performance that must be accepted in a counter intuitive way.

[john del riccio]

While I agree with DJ & Cratos that there is an unspoken class hierarchy within the animal kingdom that horses are not immune to…I don’t agree that this necessarily manifests itself early in a sprint for example.

The true “class” of a thoroughbred is played out exponentially over distance. The difference in standard deviation at 6f for example is 75% greater in the 3rd fraction than the 1st on average.

I submit if their was a 1f BC race you would see a far different “class” of animal have a legitimate shot than at 2f...A far better shot at 2f, than at 3f…etc.

Dan,

I agree, even cheap 5k claimers can run 21 & change opening splits, the longer they go after that, however, is what seperates the wheat from the chaff.

John

[Capper Al]

Wow! Too many questions for me to tackle.

The observation about BRIS designation differing from what Jimmy assigns is a good insight. It's one I've posted before. If you understand the fundamentals of the two different approaches use to derive the label then you are ahead of the crowd.

When speed fails the winner can be explained by pace? What? Who says speed is not a pace factor? If you've ever heard Jimmy explain how he looks at a race, he'll tell you in that Okie way 'one horse goes out in front and the others try to catch him.' Certainly understanding when a so called early horse is at a disadvantage in todays race is a way to find a false favorite.

Is there a case for pace? You tell me. (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=38859&page=1&pp=15) Is it the end all and be all? No. Can you use it for every single race? No. But it is a great arrow to have in your quiver.

Actually, the Hat isn't so clear on how he comes to his determinations of running styles. He does seem to parallel speed points better than BRIS. If you or anyone could explain the Hat's method, I would appreciate it. I know how Pizzolla and Quirin do it, so I'm not asking for much of an explanation.

Beyer was looking for a reason to explain why his Speed figures could be off. He found several times that he could explain it with Pace and Trip analysis. I agree Speed and Pace are joined at the hip.

[Capper Al]

is the Bris rate from their PPs??

So, I noticed that the Bris Rating [in their PPs] relays way too much on the horse's previous race...

I 've used their PPs in the past, I saw an example last year where Bris rated a horse that was classic E/EP horse an S because the horse has trouble at the gate and gave the field 5-6 lgths in her last race.

I think in rating a horse a running style you need to look at several races and use the style the horse is the most effective or what pattern shows up the most

Several races or only the competitive race? The example in post #1 does show an E/P BRIS horse classified as a S by the Hat. I seem to favor the Hat, intuitively, over BRIS.

[Capper Al]

BRIS running style designations are best ignored. It doesn't take long to do them yourself and then you know they are correct. Running style assignments are the first thing that I do when analyzing a race.

How do you calculate them? Do you follow Pizzolla, Quirin, The Hat, or some other model? If you have the book the Match Up 2, how would have you rated them on page 68?

[Capper Al]

Early speed by any definition is a horses innate ability to run fast early in a race. However speed is always bounded by CLASS. That is a lower class horse with early speed will probably not show that same speed at a higher class.

In summary, speed and class are “joined at the hip.”

Interesting. Some are inclined to believe Pace is the way to uncover hidden Class. Some big payoffs seem to justify this.

[Capper Al]

Clearly BRIS is using some math formula and "The Hat" is using eyeball scan to determine running style. I think eyeball is best.

Pace explains how a race run, it explains why 110 flat run 44 to the half is better in most cases (not all) then a 110 flat run 45 to the half, when these two horses meet. It shows that it matters how a horse expends its energy and how the track itself my determine the best running style for a horse to be successful. All things being equal fast early is a plus.

Beyers does make the concession that when speed rating fail pace can usually explain why. How do you tell before a race? I think its a matter of choosing your weapons before the race is run, if you believe in pace stick with pace if you believe in speed ratings stick to those, if you use both more power to you. Using both most people have a minimum that a horse must meet even if a horse can run 45 flat to the 1/2 he must be able to come home insay 26 flat or he isn't a play or must be able to run a 74 speed rating or he isn't a play.

This brings us back to the comprehensive player or data modeller as I call them. Speed verse Pace could be determined by which one did better over a 100 races for today's race conditions.

[Capper Al]

So offer something different. The fact is you don't.
Rhetorical threads are only useful to masssage the needy.
The exception to that is when they have an actual
insight to improving anyone's handicapping skill.


Your last post on Speed took hundreds of arguments.
This one will too.
The bottom line is you are asking, the rhetorical.
My prediction is that this thread will end up will going hundreds of posts.
My prediction is it will not change anyone's handicapping ability one iota.
If you don't want to use Pace and Speed, then tell us what you want to use.
And I'm not into astrology.
I'll check back at post 200+

What's your point? One of the joys of going to the track with your fellow handicappers is discussing this stuff. Rarely, or until a losing streak, will anybody change their ways based on another capper's opinion. Have you ever been at the track and told your friends that you believed this horse was going to win because of Speed and a Jockey change (or whatever reason) and have a friend who believed in another horse tell you too bad? That's part of the fun of the game, tossing around those big ideas as we go broke.

[Capper Al]

All of this means nothing without a track profile and the distance along with the segmental velocities.

There are "degrees" of early that have to be considered and by velocity not position.

I appreciate the complexities that can be used in pace analysis, but the point is do we really know what a capper means when he says a horse has early speed? These complexities are ignored by most and applied differently by most. Even in our example in post #1, BRIS and the Hat differ -- two so-called experts.

[Greyfox]

What's your point? One of the joys of going to the track with your fellow handicappers is discussing this stuff..

You must have different track friends than I do. The handicappers that I know would be bored to tears listening to handicapping theories about a race.

Yes. They ask what horse I like.
No. They don't want to hear my Pace and Speed approach. And I don't want to hear their breeding theories either.
A rhetorical question is usually asked to elicit an effect, not secure a reply.

Your question "What's the The case for Pace?" was presented as rhetorical.
I suspect that it was posed tongue in cheek.
Two hundred posts from now you'll be unveiling your use of it or lack of use of it. I happen to use Pace and Speed. If you're doing well with out them that's wonderful. To me making a case for either is like making a case for the sun coming up in the morning. Pace and speed are going to rule at the track no matter what. The sun is going to come up tomorrow, no matter what.

[Capper Al]

It is the STYLE that the horse can adapt to that is considered. You have to find that style to which the horse best adapts then decide if that is the place he will be today. Can this one change? if not it is a simple pass.

The vast majority of the time, if it comes down to two, the earlier horse wins 8 out of 10 times at the courses I follow.

Pace does make a good elimination. And you're right 8 out of 10 should go to the horse with early speed. These facts become obvious after the race. Cappers don't have a uniform way of determining early speed before the race.

[Capper Al]

The late Ray Talbout used to use the situation you just described as a classic example of being outclassed.
He said that class was the reason that the lessor classed horse would get beat in a time that was slower than he normally runs.

Plus keep in mind that running styles are also changed by the class makeup of "todays" race.
For example a classy speed horse can come from off the pace in a field he outclasses. (Because the jock is just sitting on him, letting him run well "within himself").
However IMO, cheap speed moving up in class, almost always HAS to go wire to wire to win.
They usually don't pass a classier horse in the stretch.

Good point.

[46zilzal]

Actually, the Hat isn't so clear on how he comes to his determinations of running styles.
If he follows the basic Sartin definitions, the definitions are all based upon percent median. +69 early
68 early/presser
down to 66% for late.

[Capper Al]

The pace designations provided by brisnet are never revised. A runner may change racting tactic in the course of his career.

I utilize real race time to a mucher greater extent than the ep and lp #s. Knowing the 'run-up' time for separate tracks is an important factor: a runner may go the half at MTH in :44, but don't expect that clocking to be repeated at BEL.

Comparative analysis of each entrant is required for basis of selections.

I didn't realize that BRIS didn't change the running styles. About using real time, isn't BRIS E1 and E2 figures good for that? Would that remove all the rack to track variations?

[Capper Al]

From the example shown it seems that pace figures, like speed figures, are subjective. On that earlier long thread, many that use speed figures pointed out that they do not use the beyers, either adjusting them or making their own. That may be present here as well.
I read some material on pace figures and, for lack of a better way to say it, they seem to put a very fine digital point to an analog event. In the first segment of a race horses will stumble at the gate, rear up, hop, or just be slammed. Then too, the outside lone speed will run diagonally to the rail thus taking a longer route through the first quarter. In the last segment of a race not all horses are hard ridden. If third place is locked up with no chance of being second or fourth, the rider might just ease the horse to the wire. During the middle of a race horses will swing wide or some will check and take another route. Within this, the pace analysis is done using 1/100ths of a second and a judgement most be made regarding the condition of the surface, wind speed and direction, and temperature. A daunting task at the least.

Having said that, there are some pace handicappers on here who are very good at finding winners and, more important to me, they can find some at a decent price.

There are non-quantified ways that people incorporate pace, the middle-move for example, or the Z pattern, or uncontested lone speed. Some turf handicappers are very interested in the raw time of the final quarter. So, perhaps subjectivity rules the roost with pace, quantified or not, just another piece of the puzzle. At another level, the past performances, including pace and speed, are not relevant. There will be something very subtle present that predicts an otherwise unexpected superior performance that must be accepted in a counter intuitive way.

NoBeyersPls,

You have the game down. Speed figures varied from race to race. Pace figures vary from player to player. I will also agree that I have seen some nice hits by Pace players also on several occasions. I think what the Pace might hit on is the running style fitting to the race and that the horse is placed to go.

[cj]

First off, BRIS figures, especially the E1, E2, stink.

Now, to pace handicapping. I can't imagine any decent handicapper that would have not tossed E Z Warrior as the 4 to 5 favorite in the feature at Belmont. The horse hit the gate at the start of the King's Bishop, but given the blistering pace that day, that was probably a plus. Still, the rallied comment is a farce as virtually no ground was made up under an ideal trip scenario.

That is what pace does, it provides more detail of HOW the speed figure was earned.

[cj]

I didn't realize that BRIS didn't change the running styles. About using real time, isn't BRIS E1 and E2 figures good for that? Would that remove all the rack to track variations?

Though the running styles aren't always accurate, they certainly change over time.

[Capper Al]

You must have different track friends than I do. The handicappers that I know would be bored to tears listening to handicapping theories about a race.

Yes. They ask what horse I like.
No. They don't want to hear my Pace and Speed approach. And I don't want to hear their breeding theories either.
A rhetorical question is usually asked to elicit an effect, not secure a reply.

Your question "What's the The case for Pace?" was presented as rhetorical.
I suspect that it was posed tongue in cheek.
Two hundred posts from now you'll be unveiling your use of it or lack of use of it. I happen to use Pace and Speed. If you're doing well with out them that's wonderful. To me making a case for either is like making a case for the sun coming up in the morning. Pace and speed are going to rule at the track no matter what. The sun is going to come up tomorrow, no matter what.

I'm not talking about an analysis for every race. Usually someone will say something about a particular horse in a race.

[Capper Al]

If he follows the basic Sartin definitions, the definitions are all based upon percent median. +69 early
68 early/presser
down to 66% for late.

It looks like I need to review my Sartin.

[Capper Al]

First off, BRIS figures, especially the E1, E2, stink.

Now, to pace handicapping. I can't imagine any decent handicapper that would have not tossed E Z Warrior as the 4 to 5 favorite in the feature at Belmont. The horse hit the gate at the start of the King's Bishop, but given the blistering pace that day, that was probably a plus. Still, the rallied comment is a farce as virtually no ground was made up under an ideal trip scenario.

That is what pace does, it provides more detail of HOW the speed figure was earned.

I agree with this, but have one observation. With all the handicapping factors (Speed, Class, Pace, etc), Pace seems to offer the most value after the race than any of the other methods. Tom Ainslie didn't come aboard the Pace band wagon right away. He contended at first that Pace, in most cases, was arbitrary depending on the racing strategy used by the jockey. This flies in the face that Pace is an attribute of handicapping, a so called hard wired factor for a numeric value.

[Capper Al]

Though the running styles aren't always accurate, they certainly change over time.

Do you know if BRIS changes them? I agree horses' styles might change.

[cj]

Do you know if BRIS changes them? I agree horses' styles might change.

Yes, BRIS changes them. It takes more time with horses that have raced longer, but they can and do change.

[Cratos]

While I agree with DJ & Cratos that there is an unspoken class hierarchy within the animal kingdom that horses are not immune to…I don’t agree that this necessarily manifests itself early in a sprint for example.

The true “class” of a thoroughbred is played out exponentially over distance. The difference in standard deviation at 6f for example is 75% greater in the 3rd fraction than the 1st on average.

I submit if their was a 1f BC race you would see a far different “class” of animal have a legitimate shot than at 2f...A far better shot at 2f, than at 3f…etc.


Dan, you will not get any argument from me when you say that at shorter distances lower class speed horses would have a better chance to win. However if all races were run hypothetically between the distance of 1f and 2f, class would adapt and adjust and the consequences would the same as if the distances were longer. In the animal kingdom class will always prevail in the long run.

By the way, please add Cannonball and Miles to your “Joe Zawinul, 1932 – 2007 RIP” because they all got together to create the “fusion explosion” in jazz.

[46zilzal]

Most horses are slaves to a running STYLE. The best ones, classier if you want to call them, simply adapt to whatever the pace confronts them. It is impossible to say in which fraction they are superior. Artax and Groovy were classier at the start, Forego both, Lit de Justice and Alderbaran in the final fraction.

[Cratos]

Most horses are slaves to a running STYLE. The best ones, classier if you want to call them, simply adapt to whatever the pace confronts them. It is impossible to say in which fraction they are superior. Artax and Groovy were classier at the start, Forego both, Lit de Justice and Alderbaran in the final fraction.

Forego was good long snd short. He won the Sprinter of the Year title one year. Ghostzapper was the same, he could win either long or short. It really come down to class.

[DanG]

By the way, please add Cannonball and Miles to your “Joe Zawinul, 1932 – 2007 RIP” because they all got together to create the “fusion explosion” in jazz.
The perfect two names to mention with Joe Z.

Good man Cratos! :ThmbUp:

[riskman]

I have a feeling that you know the answers, but for some reason you are putting the board to a test. What we are talking about here is the "running style" of the horse and the Bris or Hat designations for such. Bris also includes "QSP"---The QSP rating is determined by a horse’s propensity to be on the lead or up close at the first call. The first call is at two furlongs in sprints and four furlongs in routes. The QSP rating does not measure speed or velocity. It is a positional rating that reflects a horse’s desire ... will ... and ability to be on the lead or up close at this point in the race.
Below are two newsletters that will answer The Bris RS and QSP. The HAt--- unable to help you.

Click here: APRIL 1999, NUMBER 13

Click here: October 1996

[nobeyerspls]

NoBeyersPls,

You have the game down. Speed figures varied from race to race. Pace figures vary from player to player. I will also agree that I have seen some nice hits by Pace players also on several occasions. I think what the Pace might hit on is the running style fitting to the race and that the horse is placed to go.

I prefer the races where speed or pace figures are not relevant such as many maiden races. Take the filly that was beaten a combined 60 lengths in her first three starts. Twelfth of fourteen in her opener and last of thirteen in her next two. For those who look at beyers her last two were 16 and 2.
What do you do with pace when she drifts back to last place before they turn for home and then gallops to the wire behind the field?
So, she moves from poly to a dirt surface, dropping in company and stretching out, and wins easily opening up ten lengths in the backstretch and winning like a 4/5 at a nice price. A surface handicapper finds these; speed and pace handicappers do not.

[Greyfox]

A surface handicapper finds these; speed and pace handicappers do not.

Nonsense. Only one who blindly sticks to speed and pace figures would miss.

How rigid do you think we are?
Most of us using Pace and Speed figures aren't exactly stupid about when they apply and when they might not work. Got it - most of us!
Any Maiden coming down to Maiden Claiming ranks has to be evaluated carefully.
Naturally pace and speed figures are looked at to determine who was the best of the runners that have been truly sent. But many of these young horses are in the process of learning to race. Smart handicappers pay attention to trainer patterns, go to jockeys, workouts, class drops, post parade and so on.

[Tom]

Pace figs in maiden races = $$$$.
It amazes me how so many people tell other people what doesn't work when they have no clue at all! :lol:

[Tom]

I appreciate the complexities that can be used in pace analysis, but the point is do we really know what a capper means when he says a horse has early speed? These complexities are ignored by most and applied differently by most. Even in our example in post #1, BRIS and the Hat differ -- two so-called experts.

You don't need to know. It only matters the guy making the bet. What I mean by early pace should be no concern to you. This ain't a schoolroom, it's a track.

[Greyfox]

Good stuff Tom. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[DanG]

Pace and desired (effective) position are often confused.

Desired position is often decided very early in a horse’s life. Yes, a good trainer can somewhat alter running style by training covered in company, but most will tell you a horse has a inherit role in the herd. Early poor gate experiences can also affect an animal greatly.

Penny Chenery when talking about Secretariat used to say when he was a yearly it became very clear he was the “boss of the herd”. Yet, an early gate mishap in his 1st start and he became essentially a slow breaker.

I’m reminding of the effects of pace 3-5 times a week. I run around basically the same golf course and each time it’s a little different.




If I (“Turn to the right” ~ Raising Arizona) I go up hill for the first mile or so and it has a HUGE impact on my finishing time.
A left turn and I’m much fresher for the up-hill finish because of the downhill breather the 1st ¼.
If it rains the night before it’s MUCH more fatiguing than during dry periods.
Depending on if I run on the cart path, 1st cut of rough etc…I will fatigue at various rates.
Obviusly the speed of the first ½ plays a huge impact on final time.
If there is lighting and I have an un-grounded satellite dish strapped to my head it does increase risk of electrocution however. :eek:
Pace is an integral part of any track and field event. When humans attempt to break a mile world record they will enter a “rabbit” to artificially enhance the splits, just as most equine track records have a one dimensional animal that often “passes the baton” to a strong finisher.

For whatever reason growing up in Jersey pace handicappers were usually looked at as a weird cult that belong west of the Mississippi. I never could quite figure out why the time at the finish was so revered and yet the ½ time was almost for radicals. Fortunately, some of this still exists and yet as many have correctly stated in this thread…it doesn’t matter what method cashes your tickets as this is ultimately a bottom line business.

[nobeyerspls]

Pace figs in maiden races = $$$$.
It amazes me how so many people tell other people what doesn't work when they have no clue at all! :lol:

I only said that it didn't work with that filly and I also restricted it to many maiden races.
Anyway, I'm always willing to learn so post a nice longshot for me using pace figures in a maiden race. It would be nice if you used Belmont or Woodbine because I handicap those most of the time.
Take your time over the next few weeks and use the Selections section under the heading "Teaching the woefully ignorant how to use pace figures in a maiden race". Then I'll know to pay attention.

[Capper Al]

I have a feeling that you know the answers, but for some reason you are putting the board to a test. What we are talking about here is the "running style" of the horse and the Bris or Hat designations for such. Bris also includes "QSP"---The QSP rating is determined by a horse’s propensity to be on the lead or up close at the first call. The first call is at two furlongs in sprints and four furlongs in routes. The QSP rating does not measure speed or velocity. It is a positional rating that reflects a horse’s desire ... will ... and ability to be on the lead or up close at this point in the race.
Below are two newsletters that will answer The Bris RS and QSP. The HAt--- unable to help you.

Click here: APRIL 1999, NUMBER 13

Click here: October 1996

If I had the answer I wouldn't have so much time for posting in web forums. I'd be placing bets and raking in the money. I do believe that I have a few insights and some good questions that challenge the premises which cause most of us to lose money over the long run. And I am interested in what others have to say about these topics also.

The QSP should loosely correlate to running styles:

'E' should be around 7 and 8.
'E/P' around 5, 6, and 7.
'P' around 3, 4, and 5.
'S' around 1, 2, and 3.
0 (zero) points should in most cases be avoided.
I have seen BRIS with an 'E' and a 0 or 1 or 2 QSP. This doesn't make sense to me.

[46zilzal]

If I had the answer I wouldn't have so much time for posting in web forums. I'd be placing bets and raking in the money. I do believe that I have a few insights and some good questions that challenge the premises which cause most of us to lose money over the long run. And I am interested in what others have to say about these topics also.

The QSP should loosely correlate to running styles:

'E' should be around 7 and 8.
'E/P' around 5, 6, and 7.
'P' around 3, 4, and 5.
'S' around 1, 2, and 3.
0 (zero) points should in most cases be avoided.
I have seen BRIS with an 'E' and a 0 or 1 or 2 QSP. This doesn't make sense to me.
That is positional not energy distribution. How can you define a style on first call??? You have to evaluate the reaction to the pace.

[Capper Al]

Most horses are slaves to a running STYLE. The best ones, classier if you want to call them, simply adapt to whatever the pace confronts them. It is impossible to say in which fraction they are superior. Artax and Groovy were classier at the start, Forego both, Lit de Justice and Alderbaran in the final fraction.

There's a lot of truth to this. Class is the only thing that might mess this scenario up. A higher class animal could beat lesser class animals not running their best style.

[Capper Al]

Nonsense. Only one who blindly sticks to speed and pace figures would miss.

How rigid do you think we are?
Most of us using Pace and Speed figures aren't exactly stupid about when they apply and when they might not work. Got it - most of us!
Any Maiden coming down to Maiden Claiming ranks has to be evaluated carefully.
Naturally pace and speed figures are looked at to determine who was the best of the runners that have been truly sent. But many of these young horses are in the process of learning to race. Smart handicappers pay attention to trainer patterns, go to jockeys, workouts, class drops, post parade and so on.

I agree. If I were a Speed capper only I would skip a whole lot of races like maidens.

[46zilzal]

There's a lot of truth to this. Class is the only thing that might mess this scenario up. A higher class animal could beat lesser class animals not running their best style.
That is why the upper echelons are so narrowly populated. Forego was the best of the best at A-D-A-P-T-A-T-I-O-N and so was Unbridled to a lesser degree

No set style but could adapt to anything thrown at him.Other way is to simply outrun all of them via a Dr. Fager or Red.

[46zilzal]

I agree. If I were a Speed capper only I would skip a whole lot of races like maidens.
Maidens are an entirely different situation: youngsters LEARNING to run and signal readiness by going out on top the to the 2nd call the race before the photograph.

[Capper Al]

Pace figs in maiden races = $$$$.
It amazes me how so many people tell other people what doesn't work when they have no clue at all! :lol:

I have heard this before on a seminar tape about maidens. Must be something to it. What I believe about Pace would support this also.

[46zilzal]

I have heard this before on a seminar tape about maidens. Must be something to it. What I believe about Pace would support this also.
4 out of 5 of my longest prices ever were maidens. The other was on turf and was the longest.

[Capper Al]

You don't need to know. It only matters the guy making the bet. What I mean by early pace should be no concern to you. This ain't a schoolroom, it's a track.

You are right. This isn't a classroom. Did anyone say it was? Have I told anyone that I know the answer? I keep saying that I'm attacking the premises. If these premises were so absolutely right and understood with certainty by all, we wouldn't need to question them.

[Capper Al]

Pace and desired (effective) position are often confused.

Desired position is often decided very early in a horse’s life. Yes, a good trainer can somewhat alter running style by training covered in company, but most will tell you a horse has a inherit role in the herd. Early poor gate experiences can also affect an animal greatly.

Penny Chenery when talking about Secretariat used to say when he was a yearly it became very clear he was the “boss of the herd”. Yet, an early gate mishap in his 1st start and he became essentially a slow breaker.

I’m reminding of the effects of pace 3-5 times a week. I run around basically the same golf course and each time it’s a little different.



If I (“Turn to the right” ~ Raising Arizona) I go up hill for the first mile or so and it has a HUGE impact on my finishing time.
A left turn and I’m much fresher for the up-hill finish because of the downhill breather the 1st ¼.
If it rains the night before it’s MUCH more fatiguing than during dry periods.
Depending on if I run on the cart path, 1st cut of rough etc…I will fatigue at various rates.
Obviusly the speed of the first ½ plays a huge impact on final time.
If there is lighting and I have an un-grounded satellite dish strapped to my head it does increase risk of electrocution however. :eek:
Pace is an integral part of any track and field event. When humans attempt to break a mile world record they will enter a “rabbit” to artificially enhance the splits, just as most equine track records have a one dimensional animal that often “passes the baton” to a strong finisher.

For whatever reason growing up in Jersey pace handicappers were usually looked at as a weird cult that belong west of the Mississippi. I never could quite figure out why the time at the finish was so revered and yet the ½ time was almost for radicals. Fortunately, some of this still exists and yet as many have correctly stated in this thread…it doesn’t matter what method cashes your tickets as this is ultimately a bottom line business.

Bottom line is that a horse might have the desire to lead, but not be able to have the velocity to do so. This is a good point.

[46zilzal]

There is a big difference in the definition of early between the Brohamer and Sartin methods. The former are positional regardless the pace and the latter are all dependent upon the pace for placement.

Sartin horses could be defined as sustained pressers on the lead at 9 furlongs the entire trip.

[Capper Al]

That is positional not energy distribution. How can you define a style on first call??? You have to evaluate the reaction to the pace.

I agree. The desire to lead and the ability are two different things. Does this mean that only energy distribution counts? A friend of mine does pretty well with studying energy.

About defining a style, doesn't it matter where a horse is at both the first and second call-- but mostly the first call?

[Capper Al]

There is a big difference in the definition of early between the Brohamer and Sartin methods. The former are positional regardless the pace and the latter are all dependent upon the pace for placement.

Sartin horses could be defined as sustained pressers on the lead at 9 furlongs the entire trip.

Please make up a couple of running lines for an example. Thanks.

[Capper Al]

That is why the upper echelons are so narrowly populated. Forego was the best of the best at A-D-A-P-T-A-T-I-O-N and so was Unbridled to a lesser degree

No set style but could adapt to anything thrown at him.Other way is to simply outrun all of them via a Dr. Fager or Red.

Some horses can adapt, but most seem locked into one style. I agree.

[shanta]

Pace is an integral part of any track and field event. When humans attempt to break a mile world record they will enter a “rabbit” to artificially enhance the splits, just as most equine track records have a one dimensional animal that often “passes the baton” to a strong finisher.


Jim "The Hat" took over a high school track team that was terrible.

He began working them HARD early on putting them constantly into oxygen debt to the point where they would come back gasping for air. He knew that none of their competition would ever run that fast early on.

Then he started training the girls how to pace themselves and "track" their competition while keeping pressure on them.

Make them run YOUR race and not their race" is what he taught them.

They faced a girl previously undefeated. In the previous races girls would take the lead and challenge her early on. What happened was they ran too fast and the girl could run her race and would pass them late and win easy.

"Hat" told his charge "this time stay right behind her where she "feels" you right behind her. Then a couple of times early on push her a bit where she is NOT in her comfort zone. This will soften her up. The last 1/2 lap come out and attack her and take her round the last turn. She's yours then."

Hat's young lady followed instructions,handed the girl her first defeat. They then proceeded to win the state championship 6 consecutive years under Hat's coaching.

That's pace handicapping ala Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw. :)

[46zilzal]

I agree. The desire to lead and the ability are two different things. Does this mean that only energy distribution counts? A friend of mine does pretty well with studying energy.

About defining a style, doesn't it matter where a horse is at both the first and second call-- but mostly the first call?
SECOND CALL as it is a significant portion of the race (at 8.5 almost 70% of the race is over). If they can contend to that point, they have a great chance to come home as the entire field (now tired) has to have extra energy late to catch up. Fatigue negates most big charges on the dirt unless they collapse up front. The first call does not have the same signficance.

Often a lucky break catapults them out to a first call lead which they would never be able to run to (I work the gate every weekend and I am getting a stellar education on the "luck" at that phase of the races).

Horses that want to lead and are not fast enough to get it, signal their inability by ever increasing percent median energy distribution. They are trying harder earlier and exhausting themselves.

[DJofSD]

4 out of 5 of my longest prices ever were maidens.

My largest payoff per $2 wager was a maiden too. But it wasn't a pace play, it was a body language observation -- a knock against a short price favorite and a "I've got to put a couple across on that one!"

I'm sure that if it is a maiden race where all the runners have a couple of prior starts you can make half a case for pace as a tool that could be used. Good luck with those first timers! ;) :) But as zz says these babies are just learning and they can change sooooo fast from one race to the next.

[DJofSD]

That's pace handicapping ala Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw.

Ya but can he pick the place horse for an exacta yet? :)

[46zilzal]

Ya but can he pick the place horse for an exacta yet?
It is either the 2nd best win choice or the contra-energy horse (the closer in a sprint, the pace setter in a route).

When I am hitting well I get "splitzactas" (first and third) all the time.

[DJofSD]

Sartin horses could be defined as sustained pressers on the lead at 9 furlongs the entire trip.

Very true, very true.

I can tell you when this was confirmed for me. It was Winning Colors in KY Derby 114. If the PPs leading up to that contest can be located then you'll have your example of Sartin pace designations being different than visual/placement styles.

[Greyfox]

Horses that want to lead and are not fast enough to get it, signal their inability by ever increasing percent median energy distribution. They are trying harder earlier and exhausting themselves.

Can't you also eyeball this and note that final speeds are declining while early pace is remaining the same?

[46zilzal]

Very true, very true.

I can tell you when this was confirmed for me. It was Winning Colors in KY Derby 114. If the PPs leading up to that contest can be located then you'll have your example of Sartin pace designations being different than visual/placement styles.
There are hundreds of examples of that other than Winning Colors (a sustained presser)

[Pace Cap'n]

Often a lucky break catapults them out to a first call lead which they would never be able to run to (I work the gate every weekend and I am getting a stellar education on the "luck" at that phase of the races).

Beyer, in one of his books, commented that many races are won and lost in the first few steps out of the gate. Is that what you are seeing?

[46zilzal]

Beyer, in one of his books, commented that many races are won and lost in the first few steps out of the gate. Is that what you are seeing?
No. I am stating that many a positionally well placed horse was not there out of anything but luck and it so far removed from the rest of the race as being randomness.

Between contenders however the better early placement the better.

[spilparc]

Actually, the Hat isn't so clear on how he comes to his determinations of running styles. He does seem to parallel speed points better than BRIS. If you or anyone could explain the Hat's method, I would appreciate it.

If he follows the basic Sartin definitions, the definitions are all based upon percent median. +69 early
68 early/presser
down to 66% for late.

Once again you've proven you have no earthy idea what you're talking about.

The Hat follows no one. Very few can follow the Hat.

I'd also be willing to lay 9/5 that the Hat doesn't even know what percent median even means.

[46zilzal]

Once again you've proven you have no earthy idea what you're talking about.

The Hat follows no one. Very few can follow the Hat.

I'd also be willing to lay 9/5 that the Hat doesn't even know what percent median even means.
Once again NO ONE READS. Did you not see the word IF before the sentence?

[DJofSD]

I'd also be willing to lay 9/5 that the Hat doesn't even know what percent median even means.

I want a piece of that action.

[Tom]

You are right. This isn't a classroom. Did anyone say it was? Have I told anyone that I know the answer? I keep saying that I'm attacking the premises. If these premises were so absolutely right and understood with certainty by all, we wouldn't need to question them.

"We" aren't questioning them. You are.
WE are using them and betting them and cashing tickets every day. Your confusion is not shared. Attack whatever premise you want, but my advise to you is quit talking about stuff and start betting - that is where you learn what works and what doesn't. People who arae confused about evey aspect fo the game are appreciated by those of us who are winning. Thank you.:jump:

[Tom]

That is positional not energy distribution. How can you define a style on first call??? You have to evaluate the reaction to the pace.

How? Easy - if the horse is not in it's style by the first call, it won't get there. The first call is a very important call for running styles. Pace times determine the ability of the horses to get where they want to be. Only one horse can be first, one second, one third. If four horses want the lead, at least three will be forced out of thier comfort zone. Now, what about the three horses who want to be second or third, up close? They have three of four hard running early horses in front of them. They too are affected. The race starts when the gate opens, not the second call.

[Kelso]

Maidens are an entirely different situation: youngsters LEARNING to run and signal readiness by going out on top the to the 2nd call the race before the photograph.


46,
Do you apply this angle to MSW, MC, or both?

Thank you.

[46zilzal]

46,
Do you apply this angle to MSW, MC, or both?


Makes no difference as the MSW just MIGHT learn quicker but both are on learning curves.

[46zilzal]

The race starts when the gate opens, not the second call.
but many out front are there by luck only in the first few steps. It takes a standard of reference to sort out the lucky from the competitive. Many "early" horses are NOT out front as we only see what projects them into the race. POSITION is not velocity potential.

Several today at Woodbine projected (from several past performance lines) to be on top at the second call but pressed also-rans, who broke well, to the finish line

[46zilzal]

There is too much randomness to accept position of first call as a standard to define style.

Methinks had Sartin found it indicative, we MIGHT be all defining it that way.

[Tom]

Well, I am not hte onyl one who uses the start call and first call as the basic for defining runing style. I do not energy, median or early AT ALL. It is not a factor I consider. I see far too much randomness in that number. But if you can use it great, but don't tell me I can't win using what I use. A nuimber of people use energy efectivey. I am not one of them. Never will be. No need to use what doesn't help you.

I see no more randomness at the FCP than at the 2CP. In my method, the first call is where you define it - nowhere else. Works very nice. I never said position was velocity potential - you read as good as those you chastise.:D

Once I identify where the horses want to be, I use times/velocity to see who can get there. An E5 is a bad bet. A P1 can be a great bet.

[46zilzal]

An E5 is a bad bet. A P1 can be a great bet.
A terminology unknown to me. Is that BRiS stuff?? Need to leads win all the time if one knows which tracks favor them. Old Finger Lakes used to be one of them as was Hastings before the plastic strips were added to the top soil.

Anyone using % median as an absolute will lose big time. It is a reactive classification to pace pressure. It varies all the time within one horse's past performances.

[DJofSD]

A terminology unknown to me. Is that BRiS stuff??

Yes, that's BRIS stuff. Look at any free PP from BRIS and you'll find it in parenthesis immediately after the name of the horse. BRIS calls it running style stats -- see the documentation at this link. (http://www.brisnet.com/library/ppexplan.pdf)

[46zilzal]

Yes, that's BRIS stuff. Look at any free PP from BRIS and you'll find it in parenthesis immediately after the name of the horse.
Just wanted to know. Stay away from Happy Broadbent like the plague.

[riskman]

[QUOTE=Tom]People who arae confused about evey aspect fo the game are appreciated by those of us who are winning. Thank you.

But they have to be wagering to get the full benefit.

[Tom]

Yes, that's BRIS stuff. Look at any free PP from BRIS and you'll find it in parenthesis immediately after the name of the horse. BRIS calls it running style stats -- see the documentation at this link. (http://www.brisnet.com/library/ppexplan.pdf)

Actually, not BRIS - HTR/homemade. E is an early horse, P is a presser.
E6 is an early horse ranked 6 in first call velocity, P1 is a pesser ranked first in 1C velocity. The E wnats the lead, but 5 others have better velocity early, so he is up against it. The P is the best early, but doens't need the lead, so he can sit back, save energy, and have more left late.

I agree with 46 that %M or %E is a useful tool - Kelien, Andy, 46, others here and onother boards use it. I do not. I see the races from a different window than they do. I have been making/using pace and speed figs since the mid 70's - the stuff is ingrained. Like being left handed...I can hold my coffee in my right hand, but it "feels" better in my left.

Not putting 46 down, but just saying, in the spirit of pace discussions, there are many way to look at the race. Do what you are comfortable with, as long a your wallet agrees.:D

[nobeyerspls]

Nonsense. Only one who blindly sticks to speed and pace figures would miss.

How rigid do you think we are?
Most of us using Pace and Speed figures aren't exactly stupid about when they apply and when they might not work. Got it - most of us!
Any Maiden coming down to Maiden Claiming ranks has to be evaluated carefully.
Naturally pace and speed figures are looked at to determine who was the best of the runners that have been truly sent. But many of these young horses are in the process of learning to race. Smart handicappers pay attention to trainer patterns, go to jockeys, workouts, class drops, post parade and so on.

This thread isn't about speed and pace handicappers using other methods to find winners. In a maiden race full of first time and second time starters there isn't much to go on for those who break prior races into segments. The tools available to speed/pace handicappers are less useful in these races. Sort of like a plumber with a hammer.
So, don't take offense where none was intended.
Now, I asked another guy for an example of how to use pace figures in a maiden race, suggesting a real-time lesson using the Selections section. He did not respond. Is this something you can do? I am truly interested in the practical application of these methods and confess to ignorance on the topic. My medicare card arrived in the mail last month but I'm not too old to learn something new.

[Greyfox]

Now, I asked another guy for an example of how to use pace figures in a maiden race, suggesting a real-time lesson using the Selections section. He did not respond. Is this something you can do? .

I do it every day. I don't necessarily get it right every day.
Race 6 is a Maiden 40000 at Fairplex today. The morning line favorite is
# 5 Jens New Chapter at 8/5 odds. With M Baze coming in for one of his few rides on this surface this filly figures. But can she be beat?
At 3-1 #3 Kula Girl has been brought in by trainer Mike Mitchell after a two month freshening and and also plunges in class. I'd be inclined to box these two runners in a doubled up exacta (3-5).
The most dangerous runner of the remaining contenders would be
# 8 Relentless. Trainer Juan Garcia can be "sneaky" and pop them at a price.
Hence also consider box (3-5-8) and side exactas 3-5-8/2-3-4-5-8.

[Tom]

Where did the pace figures come to play?

[Greyfox]

I integrate pace and speed with my own private formula. # 3 , # 5 , #8
are all very close to the pace at the second call and should have enough stamina in today's pace scenario to put away the others.
Of interest Tom, I think that you were "the guy" that he wanted picks from.:lol:

[Greyfox]

I should also mention that at Fairplex, Martin Pedroza, riding # 4 always gets the most out his runners strictly on his ability to ride in that bull ring. Horses move up in rank when he takes them.

[46zilzal]

Not putting 46 down, but just saying, in the spirit of pace discussions, there are many way to look at the race. Do what you are comfortable with, as long a your wallet agrees.
whatever gets you to the windows to receive the $$$$$$

[GaryG]

I like KULA GIRL in that Pomona race....there, a free pick! and here is another: In the 12th #1 SECRET BARGAIN.

[46zilzal]

I should also mention that at Fairplex, Martin Pedroza, riding # 4 always gets the most out his runners strictly on his ability to ride in that bull ring. Horses move up in rank when he takes them.
I see this all the time: big East coast riders come to Hastings in the Fall to ride in the season ending championships and have NO IDEA how to ride a bull ring. Not a clue! Also many a long striding, long coupled galloper is still running when the field has crossed the line. Short coupled "handy" animals are the ones who triumph around tight turns.

The OLD Pomona was even worse....

[Tom]

I see similar things in harness - the change from a mile track to half milers can be a big deal for some horses.

[GaryG]

Tyler Baze is riding better than ever at Pomona and former top dog David Flores is also excellent there.

[nobeyerspls]

I do it every day. I don't necessarily get it right every day.
Race 6 is a Maiden 40000 at Fairplex today. The morning line favorite is
# 5 Jens New Chapter at 8/5 odds. With M Baze coming in for one of his few rides on this surface this filly figures. But can she be beat?
At 3-1 #3 Kula Girl has been brought in by trainer Mike Mitchell after a two month freshening and and also plunges in class. I'd be inclined to box these two runners in a doubled up exacta (3-5).
The most dangerous runner of the remaining contenders would be
# 8 Relentless. Trainer Juan Garcia can be "sneaky" and pop them at a price.
Hence also consider box (3-5-8) and side exactas 3-5-8/2-3-4-5-8.

Not sure how the pace figures are involved but freshened fillies have been very good to me for quite some time now. I posted one yesterday that was 20-1 morning line and won paying a paltry $9.70. The #3 and #8 would be my choices with perhaps more value in the horizontal exotics.
I don't follow the California tracks at all. Is Fairplex a cushion track? If not there could be some major surface plays. Also, did the times at Delmar vary from day to day? I note that Relentless was in a race that went in 1:11.2 and Wildcat Girl comes out of one that was 1:14.6. I know that the latter was maiden claiming, but three seconds?
Anyway, thanks for your thoughtful response. I was looking for a longshot maiden derived from pace figures. I find two or three a week with some angles that I use as screens. They don't have a speed, pace, or time component. Perhaps live longshots in maiden races are less frequent from a pace perspective.

[GaryG]

I don't follow the California tracks at all. Is Fairplex a cushion track? If not there could be some major surface plays. It is a 5/8 mile dirt course. This is not a track that you want to play if you don't follow it closely. Things there are often not what they seem to be.

[Greyfox]

Hi nobeyers,,

Fairplex is dirt.
Part of the problem handicapping races there is that horses are shipping in from all over California and Las Alamitos.
In general, runners from the major So Cal circuit do better.
The occasional Pleasanton or Bay Meadows Fair type might win, but
not often.

In general, selected jockeys do better. Pedroza, Tyler Baze, and Flores
pad their wallets here.

Sometimes, horses for courses count their too. A runner who has won at Fairplex before should be looked at carefully, even if the pace and speed figs don't seem to fall into line.

With Hol and Del Mar both having synthetic surfaces and Santa Anita dirt,
the trick is to be able to try and adjust the pace figures.
Santa Anitas pace figures are faster than Hollywoods.
Hollywood's are faster than Del Mars.
The surface at Del Mar was apparently changing from morning until evening.
Some theorized that it was the temperature heating up and the surface slowing. Perhaps, it was the rolled surface that was starting to flake.
In the first two weeks of Del Mar, betting need to lead runners was, in general a poor bet. Yet runners couldn't get too far behind the pace either.
Deep closers often flattened.

Now that they all come into Fairplex it can be anyone's game.
Some speedballs are just too fast to take the turns, especially if they have riders who can't contain them around the bend.

Also, trainers who haven't scored all year on the "big circuit" may have the occasional winner here. Even Mr. Bean, who I wouldn't bet in a month of Sundays at Hol, SA, or Del Mar, has had winners here. And watch out for
sneaky Troy Bainum who normally cleans up a Turf Paradise. He brings the odd longshot in here. Otherwise usual suspects like Mullins and O'Neill still do very well. They know the type of runners from their barns that can handle the turns.

Surprisingly the track takes in a lot of money. One bettor told me the other day that Fairplex was taking in a handle of $ 7 million a day! (I haven't seen the actual figures.)

[Bill Olmsted]

Pace ratings (whether Sartin or Quirin) will give you an additional 2% edge over the crowd in the long run.

B :)

[46zilzal]

Early horses rule on most bull rings. When there is NO straightaway to make a run, getting out front meadns you don't get caught.

[cj]

Early horses rule on most bull rings. When there is NO straightaway to make a run, getting out front meadns you don't get caught.

While probably true, the only value is if you can figure out the horses that make the front that are not expected by most to do so.

[GaryG]

Here are the stats on wire to wire winners for Sept 7-12:
6F 4/19 (21%)

6.5F 4/14 (29%)

1M 1/11 (9%)

[46zilzal]

Here are the stats on wire to wire winners for Sept 7-12:
6F 4/19 (21%)

6.5F 4/14 (29%)

1M 1/11 (9%)

Wire to wire doesn't mean early. I don't know how often that is a difficult concept for people to understand that a horse can run early and not be on the lead, or conversely another can be on the lead and not run early.

[GaryG]

Wire to wire doesn't mean early. I don't know how often that is a difficult concept for people to understand that a horse can run early and not be on the lead, or conversely another can be on the lead and not run early.If you followed this meet at all you would know that 5 of the 11 routes have been won from well off the pace. But you know everything so...

[46zilzal]

If you followed this meet at all you would know that 5 of the 11 routes have been won from well off the pace. But you know everything so...
Still, relatively, that does not mean they are not in the early range relatively. POSITION is not energy distribution.

POSITION never accounts for pace.

[spilparc]

Race 6 is a Maiden 40000 at Fairplex today. The morning line favorite is # 5 Jens New Chapter at 8/5 odds. With M Baze coming in for one of his few rides on this surface this filly figures. But can she be beat? At 3-1 #3 Kula Girl has been brought in by trainer Mike Mitchell after a two month freshening and and also plunges in class. I'd be inclined to box these two runners in a doubled up exacta (3-5).
It's none of my business how other people handicap let alone place their wagers, but I wouldn't dream of boxing two short prices horses in an exacta.

I would, perhaps, put my strongest horse on top only, but I'd never box them and even if I did bet them straight it would have to be a very strong play.
The most dangerous runner of the remaining contenders would be
# 8 Relentless. Trainer Juan Garcia can be "sneaky" and pop them at a price. Hence also consider box (3-5-8) and side exactas 3-5-8/2-3-4-5-8.
Wow, that's a lot of bets with two short price horses. I fail to see how there can be any long run profit in making these types of wagers.

[Greyfox]

It's none of my business how other people handicap let alone place their wagers, but I wouldn't dream of boxing two short prices horses in an exacta.

.

Exactas don't need to pay $ 40 or more, as Dick Mitchell once suggested.
The idea is to generate a + r.o.i. if possible. That could be 5 %. That could be 250 %.
The 3-5 box was a double play , the others singles. The potential for getting the 3-5 was their several times.
Also, if I get to the track and see that the exactas aren't paying tweet, I may move the play to be a trifecta. We'll see what the tote is doing first. Otherwise,
the 3-5 may be useful in horizontal exotics.

[Greyfox]

Let me add to what I said above. For me nothing is written in stone. If I see something in the paddock or the post parade my betting can change, sometimes drastically.

Otherwise, I like to "build and stack."
For example let's suppose that I think that runners A, B, and to a lesser extent C have a chance to win the race.

I like to "build and stack" bets. I may start

Exacta A/ B
Exacta Box A-B
Exacta A-B/A-B-C
Exacta Box A-B-C
Exacta A-B-C/A-B-C-D-E

Now depending upon how the track is playing, and the potential payouts,
I may also vary the multipliers of the bet. For example if I strongly feel that
A-B box is more likely, I may play triple units of that. Then double units of the A-B/A-B-C and single units of the A-B-C/A-B-C-D-E.
Just because an exacta is going to only pay back $ 16 or so, doesn't mean that you can't make some hay with it.
Month in and month out I make money at the tracks. Some months a lot better than others though as I have slumps too.

[Tom]

Still, relatively, that does not mean they are not in the early range relatively. POSITION is not energy distribution.

POSITION never accounts for pace.

Pace usually accounts for postion, but if a horse gets forced out of his comfort zone, he will not run his race (pace). This is generally more true of those who like to run towards the front end.

Mikey Pizzola discussed two types of horses - positional and velocity. The positiohnal will run whatever it takes to be on the lead, while a velocity will run his pace no matter where it puts him. You have to identify which is which because visual match ups are very influencial in some races.I used to have a sustained horse at the inner track who wired fields a lot, yet he was always sustained in the readouts for Energy!@

But one dimensional speed balls can destroy a match up.

[46zilzal]

between the two I contend that positionals are in the minority by far.

[bobphilo]

Actually, not BRIS - HTR/homemade. E is an early horse, P is a presser.
E6 is an early horse ranked 6 in first call velocity, P1 is a pesser ranked first in 1C velocity. The E wnats the lead, but 5 others have better velocity early, so he is up against it. The P is the best early, but doens't need the lead, so he can sit back, save energy, and have more left late.


Tom,


You are half right in explaining the Bris Run Style – Speed designation. The E, P, S do represent Early, Presser and Sustained, but the number which folloes does not indicate rank in speed but a rating of how much early speed a horse shows. The higher the number the faster the early speed of the horse. If it expressed rank, as you said, the higher numbers would indicate slower horses, while just the opposite is the case. A horse with an E7 has shown much more early speed than a an E4. Here’s the quote from the Brisnet site explaining the designations.


“past performances after the horse name and in parenthesis alongside BRIS Run Style - Speed the horse has shown in recent races. The Early Speed points are displayed in the the 1st Call in recent races at today’s distance. The higher the points, the more early the Early Speed ability of the horse based upon its running position and beaten lengths at [ Early Speed Points ] Ranging from a low of 0 points to a high of 8 points.”

The E,P,S speed point designation first appeared in Quirin's book.


Bob

[classhandicapper]

Pace usually accounts for postion, but if a horse gets forced out of his comfort zone, he will not run his race (pace). This is generally more true of those who like to run towards the front end.

Mikey Pizzola discussed two types of horses - positional and velocity. The positional will run whatever it takes to be on the lead, while a velocity will run his pace no matter where it puts him.

Tom,

Excellent series of posts on this topic.

One of the difficulties that comes up is that it's not always clear what pace and final time figures a horse is capable of running until it draws into a field that forces it to run harder to get into its comfort zone from a running style perspective. This is especially true of lightly raced high quality horses that are moving up the ladder.

[46zilzal]

The higher the speed points only means RELATIVE to the pace it was faster, not intrinsically faster.

Two horses come together in an allowance race. One is coming out of allowance on the lead and another is coming back from stakes races and was not on the lead in much faster pace pressure. The latter can be very much faster without having been up on the lead.

Without the yardstick of pace, position loses a lot of credibility.

[Tom]

Tom,


You are half right in explaining the Bris Run Style – Speed designation. The E, P, S do represent Early, Presser and Sustained, but the number which follows does not indicate rank in speed ........

Bob

Bob, sorry for the confusion, I was not using BRIS. Only the RS designations of ESP, but not BRIS ones - they are too goofy for me. I was using HTR andF1 rankings of velocity, similar to Jim Cramer's RS/speed stuff,

[Tom]

Without the yardstick of pace, position loses a lot of credibility.

I always use them in combination, like salt and pepper, scoth and ice, beer and gin........This is where I got the P1 being a good horse - it has the velocity advantage, but is not hurt by it's postional tendencies.

[bobphilo]

Tom,


You are half right in explaining the Bris Run Style – Speed designation. The E, P, S do represent Early, Presser and Sustained, but the number which folloes does not indicate rank in speed but a rating of how much early speed a horse shows. The higher the number the faster the early speed of the horse. If it expressed rank, as you said, the higher numbers would indicate slower horses, while just the opposite is the case. A horse with an E7 has shown much more early speed than a an E4. Here’s the quote from the Brisnet site explaining the designations.


“past performances after the horse name and in parenthesis alongside BRIS Run Style - Speed the horse has shown in recent races. The Early Speed points are displayed in the the 1st Call in recent races at today’s distance. The higher the points, the more early the Early Speed ability of the horse based upon its running position and beaten lengths at [ Early Speed Points ] Ranging from a low of 0 points to a high of 8 points.”

The E,P,S speed point designation first appeared in Quirin's book.


Bob

Tom, I just realized I miss-read a key part of your post, where you say that you are not using the traditional Bris - Quirin style speed points where the more points a horse gets, the faster its early speed.
As you said, you are using a homemade method where the number represents its rank in early speed, so obviously, the lower the number the faster the horse's early speed. Sorry about the mix-up.

Bob

[46zilzal]

Tom, I just realized I miss-read a key part of your post, where you say that you are not using the traditional Bris - Quirin style speed points where the more points a horse gets, the faster its early speed.
As you said, you are using a homemade method where the number represents its rank in early speed, so obviously, the lower the number the faster the horse's early speed. Sorry about the mix-up.



There is NO correlation here without relativity to a velocity.

[bobphilo]

There is NO correlation here without relativity to a velocity.

I never claimed there was. I was just clarifying a point about what Tom meant by speed points.

Bob

[nobeyerspls]

It is a 5/8 mile dirt course. This is not a track that you want to play if you don't follow it closely. Things there are often not what they seem to be.

The Ontario Jockey Club used to run their spring and fall meets at Greenwood in Toronto. It was a short track too favoring horses and jockeys who could handle the turns. Racing used to shut down for the winter, except Florida, so we would look forward to their March opening. We would save the forms from the prior year in order to identify horses that liked it.
You had to treat the track differently if you wanted to win.

[Capper Al]

An interesting race if it stays dry.

BRIS Early Pace last race:

#5 Baby Storm
#7 Lyka Card Shark
#4 Tomcat Row
BRIS Pace on Avg Distance/Surface using E2 (2C):

#4 Tomcat Row
#5 Baby Storm
#7 Lyka Card Shark
Morning line selections:

#6 Dynamic Affair 2/1
#2 Dreary 3/1
#7 Lyka Card Shark 4/1

My Pace selections:

#4 Tomcat Row
#5 Baby Storm
#6 Dynamic Affair
My picks:

#4 Tomcat Row 10/1
#6 Dynamic Affair 2/1
#2 Dreary 3/1

[Greyfox]

Whew. Chalk, but winning chalk.

# 3 /# 5 Exacta paid $ 16.20

3/5/2 Tri paid $ 106.20.

[Greyfox]

Played as "challenged:" Fairplex 6 th Race

3-5 Exacta (doubled) - using whatever you want $ 2 (or $ 20).
3-5-8 ( single) using $ 1 (or $10)
3-5-8/2-3-4-5-8 (single) using $ 1 (or $10)

Using "building and stacking."
The 3-5 Exacta box on a $ 2 bet paid $16.20. (investment $ 4.00)
The 3-5-8 Exacta box on a $ 1 bet paid $ 8.10 (investment $ 6.00)
The 3-5-8/ 2-3-4-5-8 Exacta on a $ 1 bet paid $8.10. (investment $ 12.00)

Total Investment $ 22.00
Total Income $ 32.40
Net Gain $ 10.40 or r.o.i. 47 %
In this instance of "building and stacking" the lowest possible scenario came in.

[Capper Al]

An interesting race if it stays dry.

BRIS Early Pace last race:

#5 Baby Storm E 3
#7 Lyka Card Shark P 1
#4 Tomcat Row E/P 7
BRIS Pace on Avg Distance/Surface using E2 (2C):

#4 Tomcat Row E/P 7
#5 Baby Storm E 3
#7 Lyka Card Shark P 1
Morning line selections:

#6 Dynamic Affair 2/1 P 3
#2 Dreary 3/1 E/P 5
#7 Lyka Card Shark 4/1 P 1

My Pace selections:

#4 Tomcat Row E/P 7
#5 Baby Storm E 3
#6 Dynamic Affair P 3
My picks:

#4 Tomcat Row 10/1 E/P 7
#6 Dynamic Affair 2/1 P 3
#2 Dreary 3/1 E/P 5





I forgot to enter the BRIS running style and QSP for discussion. 2 horses are 'E' style, 2 are E/P style, and 3 are P style. 32% of the races have been won wire to wire. The track favors 'E' style runners. It looks like the morning line is expecting all the early pace setters to burn out. My numbers suggest that the #4 Tomcat Row at 10/1 (E/P 7) can go all the way.

[Capper Al]

Also note that the morning line long shot at 12/1 is #1 Tell Brett with an (E 0) running style and QSP respectively. This is something I truly don't understand how a horse can be (E 0). I do agree that he's a long shot to win.

[nobeyerspls]

Played as "challenged:" Fairplex 6 th Race

3-5 Exacta (doubled) - using whatever you want $ 2 (or $ 20).
3-5-8 ( single) using $ 1 (or $10)
3-5-8/2-3-4-5-8 (single) using $ 1 (or $10)



Not quite meeting the challenge. I asked for a longshot in a maiden race using pace figures. Posting an exacta that could be found with Handicapping 101 doesn't cut it.
So, it's still out there. Someone demonstrate to me how pace handicapping locates longshots in a maiden race. Take your time and use the Selections section under the heading "Pace Handicapped Maiden Longshot".
Let's lower the bar to 10-1 to make it easy.

[nobeyerspls]

Played as "challenged:" Fairplex 6 th Race


Total Investment $ 22.00
Total Income $ 32.40
Net Gain $ 10.40 or r.o.i. 47 %
In this instance of "building and stacking" the lowest possible scenario came in.

Another point. If you catch the right field with a 10-1 or better on top of a trifecta, your $22 can return $10,000.

[Greyfox]

Now, I asked another guy for an example of how to use pace figures in a maiden race, suggesting a real-time lesson using the Selections section. He did not respond. Is this something you can do? .

Excuse me? Above was the challenge that you specifically issued to me.
Better check your own memory.
I answered it.
I'll keep an eye out down the road for your long shot request.

[Greyfox]

The other thought that comes to mind is that when I ferret out a long shot at 10-1 or more, flat betting becomes a first preference for me.

[Capper Al]

Not quite meeting the challenge. I asked for a longshot in a maiden race using pace figures. Posting an exacta that could be found with Handicapping 101 doesn't cut it.
So, it's still out there. Someone demonstrate to me how pace handicapping locates longshots in a maiden race. Take your time and use the Selections section under the heading "Pace Handicapped Maiden Longshot".
Let's lower the bar to 10-1 to make it easy.

I do believe this can be done. How about lowering the bar to a horse that will pay 4/1 or better. A long shot for me is anything paying at least double digits. I would guess from before the race one would need at least 5/1 morning line odds or luck that the public went crazy over other horses. My selection for discussion here is 10/1, but I'll bet he'll go of as favorite or second favorite. I won't be the only capper picking him. I don't why the trackman made him 10/1.

[nobeyerspls]

Excuse me? Above was the challenge that you specifically issued to me.
Better check your own memory.
I answered it.
I'll keep an eye out down the road for your long shot request.

I thought you saw that Tom said pace figures in maiden races = $$$$
I don't think that he meant $4.
Lastly, there was no discussion as to how pace figures factored in.

[nobeyerspls]

The other thought that comes to mind is that when I ferret out a long shot at 10-1 or more, flat betting becomes a first preference for me.

There are quite few flat betters posting on here. I like to bet a little to win a lot, using $1 exotics to leverage up. A typical straight bet for me is $6 to win and $3 to place and I never bet anything straight that is less than 7/2.
My interest in pace handicapping is genuine because, as a horizontal exotic player, I am often forced to handicap races I stink at, for example open male claimers sprinting. As an example, the last race in a pick 4 sequence a few years ago was $5k claimers at Churchill going 7f. I no my limitations so I usually skip these but I used two horses to complete the pick4. The one that was 30-1 was caught at the wire beating me out of $30k for the pick3 and pick4. A Michigan bred of all things won the race. The pick3 in front of this race was good but what if pace handicapping identified the winner? It would have been a $35k day.
I posted three double-digit longshots in the Selections section today. If you check them out you'll see what I'm trying to do.

[nobeyerspls]

I do believe this can be done. How about lowering the bar to a horse that will pay 4/1 or better. A long shot for me is anything paying at least double digits. I would guess from before the race one would need at least 5/1 morning line odds or luck that the public went crazy over other horses. My selection for discussion here is 10/1, but I'll bet he'll go of as favorite or second favorite. I won't be the only capper picking him. I don't why the trackman made him 10/1.

I need longer odds to leverage up on exotics so 4-1 is too low. I know what you mean about screwy morning lines. I post a 20-1 on Thursday that came in paying $9.70. Still the pick3 started with that one was nice, paying $478. The odds sequence was 7/2, 5-1, 3-1 so the leverage was there.

[Capper Al]

Bay Meadows may be a more mainstream track for discussion than Prairie Meadows. Claiming races that are the last race of the night are usually tough for me. They seem to be cheaper horses that take turns in the winner's circle to pay the feed bill. Anyway, let's take a look. This is a mile turf, different than our 6 furlong dirt race at Prairie.

BRIS Early Pace last race:

#2 Paradise Cove 7/2 E/P 3
#6 Soccer Dan 6/1 E 4
#3 Groupofthefuture 6/1 E/P 6

BRIS Pace on Avg Distance/Surface using E2 (2C):

#6 Soccer Dan 6/1 E 4
#1 What's That Sound 2/1 S 2
#5 Smiling King 9/2 S 2
Morning line selections:

#1 What's That Sound 2/1 S 2
#2 Paradise Cove 7/2 E/P 3
#4 Sands Of Time 4/1 P 2


My Pace selections:

#3 Groupofthefuture 6/1 E/P 6
#2 Paradise Cove 7/2 E/P 3
#1 What's That Sound 2/1 S 2

My picks:

#1 What's That Sound 2/1 S 2

#3 Groupofthefuture 6/1 E/P 6

#4 Sands Of Time 4/1 P 2



There is one 'E', two 'E/P', one 'P', and two 'S' running styles. With only 16 races, this distance/surface combination went wire to wire 31% of the time. The preferred running styles are 'E' and 'P'. Here I pick #1 What's That Sound on other factors than Pace at 2/1 morning line odds.

[46zilzal]

Turf races are all about the ratio of the last two fractions. Ratios of 3rd fraction velocity/2nd fraction velocity at or over 100% are typical. ....That is unless there is one alone on the lead.

Wait, get position, then run like hell hoping to get through the traffic.

[Capper Al]

Turf races are all about the ratio of the last two fractions. Ratios of 3rd fraction velocity/2nd fraction velocity at or over 100% are typical. ....That is unless there is one alone on the lead.

Wait, get position, then run like hell hoping to get through the traffic.

Give us some details to talk about if you don't mind. I realize one or two races doesn't mean much statistically. It's the discussion that counts. Thanks.

[DJofSD]

A better race to look at for pace discussion is the feature at WOX tomorrow (Sunday). Free BRIS PP here. (http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/hgrahammotion_87587.pdf)

[shanta]

What you see on the left is pace of race equalized to today's 8.5f distance.

On the right side are the horse's positions at the 1c-2c-sc-finish.

Positions NOT beaten lengths.

Times shown are in tenths of a second.

Simple pace of race and positioning of horses.

Who is running best against fastest pace? Can you see it easily on the screen shot?

THIS is Jim Bradshaw's matchup concept incorporated into software use.

Simplified here and showing contenders together for evaluation.

The 7 is the winner at 11/1.
The 5 is the place horse.

Beaten lengths as a "factor' is NONEXISTANT.

[Capper Al]

A better race to look at for pace discussion is the feature at WOX tomorrow (Sunday). Free BRIS PP here. (http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/hgrahammotion_87587.pdf)

You're on. I'll cap it late tonight or tomorrow morning. Nothing is instant for me. I have to do a lot typing into a spreadsheet.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Aspiteri
An interesting race if it stays dry.

BRIS Early Pace last race:

#5 Baby Storm E 3
#7 Lyka Card Shark P 1
#4 Tomcat Row E/P 7
BRIS Pace on Avg Distance/Surface using E2 (2C):

#4 Tomcat Row E/P 7
#5 Baby Storm E 3
#7 Lyka Card Shark P 1
Morning line selections:

#6 Dynamic Affair 2/1 P 3
#2 Dreary 3/1 E/P 5
#7 Lyka Card Shark 4/1 P 1

My Pace selections:

#4 Tomcat Row E/P 7
#5 Baby Storm E 3
#6 Dynamic Affair P 3
My picks:

#4 Tomcat Row 10/1 E/P 7
#6 Dynamic Affair 2/1 P 3
#2 Dreary 3/1 E/P 5


Another winner. PA brings me luck. As predicted the horse would be the favorite in spite of a morning line of 10/1. The results are listed:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=PRM&date=2007-09-15&race=1

#4 Tomcat Row pressed the lead until the second call and then took over the rest of the way. #6 Dynamic Affair and #2 Dreary were scratched. #5 Baby Storm lead until the second call coming in third at the finish.

[Capper Al]

Bay Meadows may be a more mainstream track for discussion than Prairie Meadows. Claiming races that are the last race of the night are usually tough for me. They seem to be cheaper horses that take turns in the winner's circle to pay the feed bill. Anyway, let's take a look. This is a mile turf, different than our 6 furlong dirt race at Prairie.

BRIS Early Pace last race:

#2 Paradise Cove 7/2 E/P 3
#6 Soccer Dan 6/1 E 4
#3 Groupofthefuture 6/1 E/P 6

BRIS Pace on Avg Distance/Surface using E2 (2C):

#6 Soccer Dan 6/1 E 4
#1 What's That Sound 2/1 S 2
#5 Smiling King 9/2 S 2
Morning line selections:

#1 What's That Sound 2/1 S 2
#2 Paradise Cove 7/2 E/P 3
#4 Sands Of Time 4/1 P 2


My Pace selections:

#3 Groupofthefuture 6/1 E/P 6
#2 Paradise Cove 7/2 E/P 3
#1 What's That Sound 2/1 S 2

My picks:

#1 What's That Sound 2/1 S 2

#3 Groupofthefuture 6/1 E/P 6

#4 Sands Of Time 4/1 P 2



There is one 'E', two 'E/P', one 'P', and two 'S' running styles. With only 16 races, this distance/surface combination went wire to wire 31% of the time. The preferred running styles are 'E' and 'P'. Here I pick #1 What's That Sound on other factors than Pace at 2/1 morning line odds.


My horse, #1 What's That Sound, came in second. This gives me 2 wins and a place at PA. I consider myself lucky even coming in second on a last race of the night claiming race. Like I said when I posted my picks, these seem to be tough races for me.

#6 Soccer Dan wired them. My horse, #1 What's That Sound, closed but couldn't catch the winner. BRIS gets the high marks here for pace analysis.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=BM&date=2007-09-15&race=9

[Capper Al]

Lots of competition in this race.

BRIS Early Pace last race:

#14 Le Cinquieme Essai E 8

#9 Remarkable News E/P 5

#13 Awesome Action P 6
BRIS Pace on Avg Distance/Surface using E2 (2C):

#4 Sky Conqueror S 1

#3 Shakespeare P 3

#1 Host S ?


Morning line selections:

#3 Shakespeare 3/1 P 3
#11 Art Master 4/1 E/P 4

#2 Becrux 5/1 P 2

My Pace selections:

#9 Remarkable News E/P 5

#4 Sky Conqueror S 1

#7 Storm Caller E/P 5


My picks:

#9 Remarkable News 8/1 E/P 5
#4 Sky Conqueror 6/1 S 1
#3 Shakespeare 3/1 P 3
Let me start with mentioning that #11 Art Master at 4/1 E/P 4 figures to be in the fight also. With only 17 races at this distance/surface, we have an 18% wire to wire victories. No alarms here for non early speed horses. The preferred running styles seem to be 'E' and 'P'. We have one 'E' (#14 Le Cinquieme Essai E 8) who has a QSP of 8 with no competition. The next closes QSP of 6 comes from only #12 Arravale at 15/1 E/P 6. Neither of these two have the overall speed to contend. This could make these two rabbits -- Horses that get out early and burn up the early speed causing the early types to fold. In that case the trackman's #3 Shakespeare 3/1 P 3 looks good. If they burn up too bad on early speed then my second choice #4 Sky Conqueror 6/1 S 1 looks good also. It doesn't seem right that an early speed duel could determine the results in a route turf race. We'll have to wait and see.

[DJofSD]

I do see some of these winging it on the front end early. If they offered such I wager, I'd bet that Awesome Action will have the lead at the 1st call. He'll be joined Kip DeVille and Storm Call with Becrux laying just behind those. Who knows how many of the long-odds, non-contenders will be mixing up too like Galantas.

It looks like there could be quiet a traffic jam at the 1/4 pole and those runners that should benefit from the collapse of the early pace setters will have their jobs cut out for them -- the jocks will be busy and it could come down to who's able to capitalize on a hole opening, etc.

My contenders for the win will be coming from off the pace. Le Cinquiemas Essai normally runs close to the pace but my figures show he'll not be able to do that today. If he does run to his normal position I think he'll not have a shot late. Remarkable News is another that likes to be prompting the early runners but I don't think he has the closing ability to go with others when the running really counts. He appears to be a horse that does better going longer that 8 panels.

My two contenders for the win are Art Master and Shakespeare. Both will be have to depend upon their jocks to get that winning trip. I'll give Shakespeare the nod on class.

It's still early and no scratches have been posted on the web site yet. A key scratch would change my analysis.

Good luck all.

[nobeyerspls]

Lots of competition in this race.



My picks:

#9 Remarkable News 8/1 E/P 5
#4 Sky Conqueror 6/1 S 1
#3 Shakespeare 3/1 P 3
Let me start with mentioning that #11 Art Master at 4/1 E/P 4 figures to be in the fight also. With only 17 races at this distance/surface, we have an 18% wire to wire victories. No alarms here for non early speed horses. The preferred running styles seem to be 'E' and 'P'. We have one 'E' (#14 Le Cinquieme Essai E 8) who has a QSP of 8 with no competition. The next closes QSP of 6 comes from only #12 Arravale at 15/1 E/P 6. Neither of these two have the overall speed to contend. This could make these two rabbits -- Horses that get out early and burn up the early speed causing the early types to fold. In that case the trackman's #3 Shakespeare 3/1 P 3 looks good. If they burn up too bad on early speed then my second choice #4 Sky Conqueror 6/1 S 1 looks good also. It doesn't seem right that an early speed duel could determine the results in a route turf race. We'll have to wait and see.



With no speed or pace figures in my analysis I'll go with Kip Deville. The reason is distance preference (6 for 8), class (he's won a Grade 1), and good works prior to this second off a layoff. Unlike two turn miles, the wide Woodbine course makes this less of a trip race.
Of the locals, Estevan can outrun his very long odds.
Of your picks, I most fear Sky Conquerer. This is not his preferred distance but he loves this course.

As to wagering, I won't attempt vertical exotics but will bet Kip to win and place. In the race prior, Matt's Lucky Lad looks live at 8-1 so I'll build some horizontals with these two. I can go deep in races seven and ten but it looks like I won't have to.

[sammy the sage]

"I can go deep in races seven and ten but it looks like I won't have to."

sounds like a woman wrote this...splain, please? :bang:

[sammy the sage]

by the way...like Kip myself!

[46zilzal]

it's all about deceleration. True speed close, those moving later usually are better.

[DJofSD]

Host, using your mix of contenders and pace lines, looks very similar to Dance Away Capote.

[Capper Al]

it's all about deceleration. True speed close, those moving later usually are better.

So you are going with #3 Shakespeare 3/1 P 3 and #1 Host 15/1 respectively?

[Capper Al]

Lots of competition in this race.

BRIS Early Pace last race:

#14 Le Cinquieme Essai E 8

#9 Remarkable News E/P 5

#13 Awesome Action P 6
BRIS Pace on Avg Distance/Surface using E2 (2C):

#4 Sky Conqueror S 1

#3 Shakespeare P 3

#1 Host S ?


Morning line selections:

#3 Shakespeare 3/1 P 3
#11 Art Master 4/1 E/P 4

#2 Becrux 5/1 P 2

My Pace selections:

#9 Remarkable News E/P 5

#4 Sky Conqueror S 1

#7 Storm Caller E/P 5


My picks:

#9 Remarkable News 8/1 E/P 5
#4 Sky Conqueror 6/1 S 1
#3 Shakespeare 3/1 P 3
Let me start with mentioning that #11 Art Master at 4/1 E/P 4 figures to be in the fight also. With only 17 races at this distance/surface, we have an 18% wire to wire victories. No alarms here for non early speed horses. The preferred running styles seem to be 'E' and 'P'. We have one 'E' (#14 Le Cinquieme Essai E 8) who has a QSP of 8 with no competition. The next closes QSP of 6 comes from only #12 Arravale at 15/1 E/P 6. Neither of these two have the overall speed to contend. This could make these two rabbits -- Horses that get out early and burn up the early speed causing the early types to fold. In that case the trackman's #3 Shakespeare 3/1 P 3 looks good. If they burn up too bad on early speed then my second choice #4 Sky Conqueror 6/1 S 1 looks good also. It doesn't seem right that an early speed duel could determine the results in a route turf race. We'll have to wait and see.



Results:

#3 Shakespeare P 3
#5 Kip Deville E/p 5

#6 Galantas E/p 4

#9 Remarkable News E/p 5

Early speed folded. #9 Remarkable News held the lead trying to go wire to wire, but couldn't hold on. The trackman and 46 get this one. There was too much early speed in this race. I guess somehow, maybe deceleration as 46 says, gets the winner.

[DJofSD]

There was too much early speed in this race. Definitely.

Early speed folded. As expected.

Remarkable News is another that likes to be prompting the early runners but I don't think he has the closing ability to go with others when the running really counts. He appears to be a horse that does better going longer that 8 panels.
#9 Remarkable News held the lead trying to go wire to wire, but couldn't hold on. As I said.

Shakespeare was my #1 sustained pace horse while Art Master was #2. A sustained pace horse is one that decelerates less than the other horses. zz uses a software program that focuses on deceleration. I use an forerunner that is primarily velocity based with the beginnings of deceleration.

For myself, learning to recognize when there was too much early speed in turf routes was key to unlocking these races. True, a short odds favorite winning doesn't prove much.

However, look at the 6th race on the same card. Essential Edge was on the lead with no challengers. Matching up this horse to the other runners showed there was not any one else he'd be competing against early. Using velocity, he had rankings that made him either 1, 2 or 3 in all segments of the race. And, the acceleration/deceleration rankings were all 1's.

[nobeyerspls]

"I can go deep in races seven and ten but it looks like I won't have to."

sounds like a woman wrote this...splain, please? :bang:

I'm not a woman and not even considering a sex change.
The term "going deep" means using several horses instead of one or two.

[nobeyerspls]

Results:

#3 Shakespeare P 3
#5 Kip Deville E/p 5

#6 Galantas E/p 4

#9 Remarkable News E/p 5

Early speed folded. #9 Remarkable News held the lead trying to go wire to wire, but couldn't hold on. The trackman and 46 get this one. There was too much early speed in this race. I guess somehow, maybe deceleration as 46 says, gets the winner.




There has to be more to pace analysis than picking a 9/5 favorite who won with a perfect, ground saving trip. Kip Deville was off the radar screen for you and DJ and it looked like he had it won 70 yards from home. Was recency an issue in your methods? Also, Galantas wasn't mentioned and he ran third at a decent price. Lastly, did you know about the bar shoe on Remarkable News? That's a toss for me but he ran much better than I thought he would.
Maybe you could pick another race where someone could come up with a winner at decent odds.

[DJofSD]

nobeyerspls, have you read any of the message I've posted in this thread? From your last message it appears you just read the last message.

[cj]

Picking a turf race to analyze pace misses the mark I little in my opinion.

[nobeyerspls]

nobeyerspls, have you read any of the message I've posted in this thread? From your last message it appears you just read the last message.

It's a long thread but I think I read them all. If you mean the "another arrow in the quiver" comment then I understand.
I've been trying to get someone to post a longshot using this method. So far no success. It's not a lot to ask. Someone simply starts a thread in the Selections section in which they pick a horse and explain how pace handicapping led them to it.
So let's stick with that search for a 10-1 maiden winner. It was suggested that I was among those that didn't know what they were talking about when I gave the opinion that this method was less useful in maiden races. In fact I was so in the dark that the falling down, laughing on his back smily was used.
I've posted several longshots on threads I title "double digits only" and I explain why I picked them. Some won, more lost, but they are out there in the forum domain.

[Capper Al]

Okay guys, the deceleration folks made an impression yesterday at Woodbine. I had picked up on too much early speed but refused to change my pick. Now it is time for the pace handicappers to chime in with a few answers to my questions, and you may refer to yesterday's race at Woodbine:


Where is the best information in print and on 'How to figure and use deceleration"?
Is three early speed horses the magic number for too much early speed?
How would you know when speed could possibly hold on?
Thanks

[46zilzal]

Where is the best information in print and on 'How to figure and use deceleration"?
Is three early speed horses the magic number for too much early speed?
How would you know when speed could possibly hold on?
Thanks
FIRST and foremost, you have to have a track profile to tell you the most notable winning style. Usually about 80% of the horses that win fall in that category.

One cannot make blanket statements on too much early particularly when discussing differing surfaces. Early, unless ALONE on the lead, is not even a consideration with most turf runners. ALONE on the lead, no matter the surface, is the best angle in horse racing. PERIOD

Deceleration is an easy calculation. Put the third fraction velocity over the 2nd fraction velocity. Find out AT YOUR VENUE, what range wins and use it as a standard. For example, Woodbine turfers usually are in the range of above 108% for stakes, but at Fort Erie (where there are few true turf runners) that standard can drop to the middle 90's percent wise. It is relative to the course and group of horses running there.

Deceleration is NOT the same on the dirt as front runners perform much better. If the relative final time speed of a field is close, then deceleration can be used to differentiate the rest (this is what I call the Damon Runyon angle named in honor of the NYRA race in which I first noted it).

[Greyfox]

Deceleration is an easy calculation. Put the third fraction velocity over the 2nd fraction velocity. Find out AT YOUR VENUE, what range wins and use it as a standard. For example, Woodbine turfers usually are in the range of above 108% for stakes, but at Fort Erie (where there are few true turf runners) that standard can drop to the middle 90's percent wise. It is relative to the course and group of horses running there.

Good suggestion. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

I find it amazing the listing of Shakespeare as a presser. The race where he got hurt was the ONLY one where he was not a stone cold late runner.

[cj]

Okay guys, the deceleration folks made an impression yesterday at Woodbine. I had picked up on too much early speed but refused to change my pick. Now it is time for the pace handicappers to chime in with a few answers to my questions, and you may refer to yesterday's race at Woodbine:



Where is the best information in print and on 'How to figure and use deceleration"?
Is three early speed horses the magic number for too much early speed?
How would you know when speed could possibly hold on?
Thanks



I know A LOT of pace guys will disagree with this, but it works for me. I have long ago given up trying to guess how a race will develop pace wise. The human element exert too much control and are very unpredictable. Anyone who has played the inner dirt and watched Herbie Castillo drag a supposed speed horse back to 6th while some other horse cuts candy fractions knows what I am talking about.

I use pace to assess previous performances, period. I try to determine if the horse displayed some quality not given with speed figures alone, or if the horse had an easy trip and will be overbet next time. I also use pace to guess how a horse will handle changes in surface and distance.

Having done that, I try to identify the contenders and then see which, if any, offer value. Sometimes the race develops to help my horses, sometimes not, but trying to predict what will happen once the gate opens has never worked for me.

[Capper Al]

There has to be more to pace analysis than picking a 9/5 favorite who won with a perfect, ground saving trip. Kip Deville was off the radar screen for you and DJ and it looked like he had it won 70 yards from home. Was recency an issue in your methods? Also, Galantas wasn't mentioned and he ran third at a decent price. Lastly, did you know about the bar shoe on Remarkable News? That's a toss for me but he ran much better than I thought he would.
Maybe you could pick another race where someone could come up with a winner at decent odds.

That's horse racing knowledge not numbers. This has been my main point through out my threads, knowledge from the barn side triumphs any numeric system. I had #9 Remarkable News going wire to wire. Maybe the shoes were the clue to get off in spite of the numbers. He did almost hold out. Passing this race might have been the best thing to do with the conflicting data?

[Capper Al]

I know A LOT of pace guys will disagree with this, but it works for me. I have long ago given up trying to guess how a race will develop pace wise. The human element exert too much control and are very unpredictable. Anyone who has played the inner dirt and watched Herbie Castillo drag a supposed speed horse back to 6th while some other horse cuts candy fractions knows what I am talking about.

I use pace to assess previous performances, period. I try to determine if the horse displayed some quality not given with speed figures alone, or if the horse had an easy trip and will be overbet next time. I also use pace to guess how a horse will handle changes in surface and distance.

Having done that, I try to identify the contenders and then see which, if any, offer value. Sometimes the race develops to help my horses, sometimes not, but trying to predict what will happen once the gate opens has never worked for me.

I have had similar experiences. There would be a stand out early speed horse dead last at the 1C.

[46zilzal]

That's horse racing knowledge not numbers. This has been my main point through out my threads, knowledge from the barn side triumphs any numeric system. I had #9 Remarkable News going wire to wire. Maybe the shoes were the clue to get off in spite of the numbers. He did almost hold out. Passing this race might have been the best thing to do with the conflicting data?

Good horse GOING BACKWARDS.

[Capper Al]

Picking a turf race to analyze pace misses the mark I little in my opinion.

Believe it or not, I have found early speed a bigger factor than most appreciate in turf races. We are all over whelmed with the visuals from those last call drives. My numbers support analysis of early speed in turfs is important.

[Capper Al]

Give me a good book that addresses deceleration, please. Thanks.

[Capper Al]

Good horse GOING BACKWARDS.

46,

Can I have a little more detail when you post your charts? Please explain a little what you are seeing in the numbers. Thanks.

[46zilzal]

46,

Can I have a little more detail when you post your charts? Please explain a little what you are seeing in the numbers. Thanks.
TS= true speed, velocity of the final time
deceleration which I defined already.

[46zilzal]

Give me a good book that addresses deceleration, please. Thanks.
Carroll on Speed is about the only one and he only addresses it as an aside.

[DJofSD]

I've been trying to get someone to post a longshot using this method.

I posted the winner of the Pacific Classic using pace handicapping. Is that the kind of long shot that will satisfy the conditions of pace being worthwhile?

[DJofSD]

So let's stick with that search for a 10-1 maiden winner.

If I recall correctly. the initial guidelines I received from Doc Sartin was a horse needed to show at least three pace lines before you could use his tools for a match up. If your maiden contest meets those conditions then pace could be used. I wouldn't expend the effort though. I personally find it more valuable to handicap races other than maidens when using a pace approach. I'm sure others do use pace for maiden races, more power to them.

[DJofSD]

Good horse GOING BACKWARDS.

zz, you are applying form cycle analysis here, no? Meaning the horse is in declining form?

[46zilzal]

zz, you are applying form cycle analysis here, no? Meaning the horse is in declining form?
looks that way to me....

What makes turfers? closing fractions.

The true speeds vary only slightly with this one but the decelerations are declining in the comparison of the SAME horse's older running lines.

Says decline to me. MOST horses shifting to EARLIER racing styles than their best (on dirt as well) usually are going off form, or meeting a pace they cannot contend with so more energy is expended (without success) earlier

[nobeyerspls]

I posted the winner of the Pacific Classic using pace handicapping. Is that the kind of long shot that will satisfy the conditions of pace being worthwhile?

I never suggested that pace handicapping was not worthwhile. There are too many into it to say it has no value. As to the race you mentioned, my son-in-law had that winner and he found it without pace. If you want to say how you applied the method that would be fine but it won't show their use in maiden races, a condition where they produce $$$$$ according to others.

[nobeyerspls]

If I recall correctly. the initial guidelines I received from Doc Sartin was a horse needed to show at least three pace lines before you could use his tools for a match up. If your maiden contest meets those conditions then pace could be used. I wouldn't expend the effort though. I personally find it more valuable to handicap races other than maidens when using a pace approach. I'm sure others do use pace for maiden races, more power to them.

When I stated that they were of no help in many maiden races it was because those races contained several first or second time starters. Second lifetime start is a very productive angle, producing huge payouts when the first race was a disaster. Now you tell me that even those with two starts can't be evaluated using pace.
I posted a winning pick3 on here recently and the third leg was maidens. I used three horses in that race and the two longshots were off the board. The first time starter I used was bet down to 3-1 and won.
From your post you seem to agree with my position.

[DJofSD]

When I stated that they were of no help in many maiden races it was because those races contained several first or second time starters. Second lifetime start is a very productive angle, producing huge payouts when the first race was a disaster. Now you tell me that even those with two starts can't be evaluated using pace.

I posted a winning pick3 on here recently and the third leg was maidens. I used three horses in that race and the two longshots were off the board. The first time starter I used was bet down to 3-1 and won.
From your post you seem to agree with my position.

Well, it appears you're more interested in picking winners in maiden races regardless of the method used.

Some place along the line I thought the focus was about applying pace handicapping methods as a way to isolate winners. If pace is not applicable or you have a different way to isolate high odds winners in maiden races, good for you.

What I stated were the guidelines I received when I first started using pace handicapping methods. Each runner needed to have 3 pace lines. If you can do differently, go for it. In my opinion, in my experience, what I have evolved to over the years is to not handicap maiden races regardless of any method. If you can apply pace to those races, go for it. There's no absolute rule here, you can do what you please.

[cj]

I have a mechanical maiden play based on my figures. It uses an early speed rating I generate based on early position, pace call pace figure, distance and surface of the last 4 races (or less if that is all that are available).

Ran Wins WinPct AvgPay ROI Profit
6529 1763 27.00% $8.61 116.22% $2,118.47

If I restrict it to 10 to 1 and up:

Ran Wins WinPct AvgPay ROI Profit
962 77 8.00% $38.35 155.50% $1,067.77

Pace handicapping is huge in maiden races.

[46zilzal]

Pace handicapping is huge in maiden races.
One can say that repeatedly until the cows come home, from the roof tops.

[GaryG]

On a related note, in NW1 races maidens coming off a fast win but with a pace weakness very often fail at low odds. There is no way not to consider pace when evaluating developing 2 and 3yo.

[DJofSD]

There is no way not to consider pace when evaluating developing 2 and 3yo.

One approach I will occasionally use in that case is to make a pace evaluation looking for a knock against the favorite.

[Tom]

On a related note, in NW1 races maidens coming off a fast win but with a pace weakness very often fail at low odds. There is no way not to consider pace when evaluating developing 2 and 3yo.

Yes there is.;)

[Tom]

Ran Wins WinPct AvgPay ROI Profit
6529 1763 27.00% $8.61 116.22% $2,118.47

If I restrict it to 10 to 1 and up:

Ran Wins WinPct AvgPay ROI Profit
962 77 8.00% $38.35 155.50% $1,067.77

Pace handicapping is huge in maiden races.


Whicih is what I was talking about when I said pace in maiden races = $$$;)

[nobeyerspls]

Whicih is what I was talking about when I said pace in maiden races = $$$;)

Which you will be happy to demonstrate in the Selections section any day now.

Forget the qualifier "many". Are there any maiden races in which pace handicapping does not work? Would a field of ten first time starters qualify?

[cj]

Which you will be happy to demonstrate in the Selections section any day now.


I have in the past, I will not any longer. I went through this with twindouble, and even after picking the winner, got a bunch of static.

I did it in a maiden thread last year. After picking a $30+ horse, I got, well, "It wasn't his pace advantage, he was a first time gelding". Besides, I bet for a nice chunk of my income and see no reason to share long priced horses anymore.

I don't see why anyone in their right mind would bet a field of 10 first timers, by the way.

[nobeyerspls]

I have a mechanical maiden play based on my figures. It uses an early speed rating I generate based on early position, pace call pace figure, distance and surface of the last 4 races (or less if that is all that are available).

Ran Wins WinPct AvgPay ROI Profit
6529 1763 27.00% $8.61 116.22% $2,118.47

If I restrict it to 10 to 1 and up:

Ran Wins WinPct AvgPay ROI Profit
962 77 8.00% $38.35 155.50% $1,067.77

Pace handicapping is huge in maiden races.

I use freshened fillies on top of trifectas and superfectas and handicap the other horses underneath. When I restrict it to 20-1 or higher the stats for this summer are:

# of plays - 6
# of wins - 2
Amt bet - $138
Amt won - $23,148
Profit - $23,010
ROI - a useless number

I'm looking for one of those 10-1's in the Selections section with an explanation of the method used. I have no reason to doubt your stats but seeing this done in realtime will be a good lesson for someone who doesn't know the method.

[Tom]

I agree. It would a good lesson.

It would be a better lesson to hear the idea, look into it yourself, and bet your own money to verify it, Like I did, and Like CJ did.

This thread has already gone far beyond a discussion of pace and morphed into having to defend it, so I am now bowing out, too.


Good luck to you all.

[46zilzal]

I have in the past, I will not any longer. I went through this with twindouble, and even after picking the winner, got a bunch of static.

I did it in a maiden thread last year. After picking a $30+ horse, I got, well, "It wasn't his pace advantage, he was a first time gelding". Besides, I bet for a nice chunk of my income and see no reason to share long priced horses anymore.

I don't see why anyone in their right mind would bet a field of 10 first timers, by the way.

BRAVO you have long since past the acceptance category here.....Let your own work benefit YOU and no one else unless they PAY for it.

[Capper Al]

If any horses should show some deceleration, it should be fillies on a route turf. Let's hope for good weather while we observe another instance of pace analysis in a router turf race. Hope we get some takers.


ENTRIES 8TH CRC SEPTEMBER 22

1 1/16 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES 3 YEAR OLDS
NONGRADED STAKE
PURSE $100,000 ( 4:01) (15)

1 LANGWORTHY 04 L117 SANCHEZ JEFFREY AZPURUA MANUEL J
2 SWEET EXCHANGE 04 L119 LOPEZ J E WARREN FRED G
3 JOAN'S ROYAL DAWN 04 L117 MORALES PABLO CRUISE JOHN
4 CASA MIMATY 04 L119 OLIVERO C A OLIVARES LUIS
5 FIESTIVE EVENT 04 117 CHIRINOS ROIMES MUENCH DAVID L
6 SNOW CONE 04 L119 TRUJILLO E WOLFSON MARTIN D
7A MARIA'S KITTY 04 L115 CARDOSO DAVID MCDONALD MICHAEL
8 THE REAL FUTURE 04 L117 COA DANIEL CREEL RICK
9 SPIRITED SEACAT 04 L117 GARCIA J A COLLAZO HENRY
10 SUAVENESS 04 L115 AGUILAR M ARANGO ROBERTO
11 ARCH NEMESIS 04 L117 LEYVA J C SPATZ RONALD B
12 ISLAND FRIEND 04 L117 NUNEZ E O COLLAZO HENRY
13A SCOOTER GIRL 04 L119 CARDOSO DAVID MCDONALD MICHAEL
14 BANDA VICTORIA 04 L115 CRUZ M R GLEAVES PHILIP
15 COZZI CAPITAL 04 L115 FUENTES RAYMUND WILENSKY HERMAN
A-COUPLED: MARIA'S KITTY AND SCOOTER GIRL

[46zilzal]

You have to look at ALL their turf lines as a yardstick, don't average or just look at the last few.

NEVER equate a deceleration on a dirt surface one to one to the lawn: they never equate. You might get a hint that one would switch to the other surface but the two are not interchangeable.

[shanta]

If any horses should show some deceleration, it should be fillies on a route turf. Let's hope for good weather while we observe another instance of pace analysis in a router turf race. Hope we get some takers.


ENTRIES 8TH CRC SEPTEMBER 22

1 1/16 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES 3 YEAR OLDS
NONGRADED STAKE
PURSE $100,000 ( 4:01) (15)

1 LANGWORTHY 04 L117 SANCHEZ JEFFREY AZPURUA MANUEL J
2 SWEET EXCHANGE 04 L119 LOPEZ J E WARREN FRED G
3 JOAN'S ROYAL DAWN 04 L117 MORALES PABLO CRUISE JOHN
4 CASA MIMATY 04 L119 OLIVERO C A OLIVARES LUIS
5 FIESTIVE EVENT 04 117 CHIRINOS ROIMES MUENCH DAVID L
6 SNOW CONE 04 L119 TRUJILLO E WOLFSON MARTIN D
7A MARIA'S KITTY 04 L115 CARDOSO DAVID MCDONALD MICHAEL
8 THE REAL FUTURE 04 L117 COA DANIEL CREEL RICK
9 SPIRITED SEACAT 04 L117 GARCIA J A COLLAZO HENRY
10 SUAVENESS 04 L115 AGUILAR M ARANGO ROBERTO
11 ARCH NEMESIS 04 L117 LEYVA J C SPATZ RONALD B
12 ISLAND FRIEND 04 L117 NUNEZ E O COLLAZO HENRY
13A SCOOTER GIRL 04 L119 CARDOSO DAVID MCDONALD MICHAEL
14 BANDA VICTORIA 04 L115 CRUZ M R GLEAVES PHILIP
15 COZZI CAPITAL 04 L115 FUENTES RAYMUND WILENSKY HERMAN
A-COUPLED: MARIA'S KITTY AND SCOOTER GIRL


I'll take the one with the Spanish jockey aboard :)

[DJofSD]

I'll take the one with the Spanish jockey aboard

:lol:

For that CRC turf event, post a link to a free set of PPs.

[nobeyerspls]

I agree. It would a good lesson.

It would be a better lesson to hear the idea, look into it yourself, and bet your own money to verify it, Like I did, and Like CJ did.

This thread has already gone far beyond a discussion of pace and morphed into having to defend it, so I am now bowing out, too.


Good luck to you all.

A graceful exit, stage left. Leaving me in the dark, never to see pace handicapping applied. Just a chalk exacta, a 9/5 winner, some unaudited stats, and a little bravado with smilies and all.
Think of me from time to time. Reading my form under a single bare lightbulb. Trying to find other recipes for Kraft dinner and a way to extend the powdered milk. That's OK. I was hoping for enlightenment. But then as they say, live in hope die in despair.
Seriously, you may have caught that I have to handicap underneath angle horses for the angle to produce a winning vertical exotic. In the under 20-1 range I had several winners but missed the trifecta. What if I could have caught the place or show horse I missed with some knowledge of pace handicapping. Conversely, what if a pace handicapper finds the winner but needs some other handicapping method to find that 10-1 place or show horse.
This forum is about an exchange of ideas and the best place to do that is real time in the Selections section. Longshots are tough so if you post one and it doesn't win, so what. At least you'll provide the rational which can than be applied in private by the one trying to learn the method.
Your not walking away from a challenge. There is no challenge. There are two nationalities of people: horseplayers, for whom I have the greatest respect, and everyone else.

[Capper Al]

There used to be a joke about a scientist that trainer a cricket to jump at his command. When the scientist would say jump the cricket would jump. For scientific research, the scientist cut off the legs from the cricket. He commanded the cricket to jump again. Of course, the cricket didn't. The scientist then conclude based upon his cause and effect analysis that with the legs cut off the cricket could not hear the command anymore and, therefore, didn't jump.

I suspect Pace analysis has a similar story. There are many different applications of pace applied with some surprising results at times. But what is the Pace handicapper finding? They claim, in general, that they have the true picture of what effort was entailed in previous PP lines that will indicate what a horse's true speed/battle ability is. How the horse earned the speed figure is what really counts. Much of the Pace handicapper's ideas rested on Early Speed and overcoming the Early Pace. No one could really dispute this until polytracks came around and closers started winning more. What happened to Early Pace? On polytracks the horses aren't faced with the dirt flying in their face anymore. The horses could wait to close. The race might not have been as much to dominate the Early Pace but to get out of the way of the flying dirt. Then what might have the Pace handicapper's stats found in days past? Maybe just the old hidden move angle. When a horse showed a flash of Early Speed or did well against Early Speed, it could have just been a clue that the horse is in form and ready to run-- not magic.

[DJofSD]

I suspect Pace analysis has a similar story. There are many different applications of pace applied with some surprising results at times. But what is the Pace handicapper finding? They claim, in general, that they have the true picture of what effort was entailed in previous PP lines that will indicate what a horse's true speed/battle ability is. How the horse earned the speed figure is what really counts. Much of the Pace handicapper's ideas rested on Early Speed and overcoming the Early Pace. No one could really dispute this until polytracks came around and closers started winning more. What happened to Early Pace? On polytracks the horses aren't faced with the dirt flying in their face anymore. The horses could wait to close. The race might not have been as much to dominate the Early Pace but to get out of the way of the flying dirt. Then what might have the Pace handicapper's stats found in days past? Maybe just the old hidden move angle. When a horse showed a flash of Early Speed or did well against Early Speed, it could have just been a clue that the horse is in form and ready to run-- not magic.

You have an agenda that I don't understand. I'm no longer interested in playing games. Good luck on your quest. I'm done.

[46zilzal]

When a horse showed a flash of Early Speed or did well against Early Speed, it could have just been a clue that the horse is in form and ready to run-- not magic.
Don't think anyone here ever said just that. It is a generally accepted phenomenon that improving early speed works. Tom Ainsle pointed it out years ago.

[skate]

pace fig. alone are useless.

since early and late pace combine to equal a Speed fig.
it is the speed fig that really gives you the horse ability.

you can and often do (lemon drop) find a hores with the best early speed or the horse with the best late speed and with that finding, you conclude that horse to be the best.

what you really found was a trainer giving her horse shape.
exertion without exhaustion.

sure, pace is very indicative. while the overall speed will win.

and, i do understand "who am i to understand, since i have No proof".:kiss:

[46zilzal]

So many people look at the majority of these speed/pace numbers as some sort of absolute. When a pace rating PROJECTS as to what a horse can do in a contest today, you have to know where and from whom, that rating will be challenged as well as, HOW that challenge may augment, or detract from today's match up. If the challenge today is similar from the races these ratings were taken FROM (i.e., multiple pressers pushing a few earlier horses) okay, but if it was very much different (sustained pressers and a single presser chasing two front runners) the INTERACTION of today's match up trumps the way the numbers were created coming into today's race. One has to find past pace performances in line with the make up of today's field, and create an INTERACTIVE projection of how they might change, not a slavish adherence to a number possibly created in a race totally unlike today's challenge.

If these guys were machines, they would put out about the same numbers each race. They REACT to the others in each contest slightly differently unless they simply run away from all of them (my favorites).

[nobeyerspls]

One can say that repeatedly until the cows come home, from the roof tops.

One certainly can say that but, until it's demonstrated, it's just them saying it. Kind of like "Didn't the king look fine in his new suit of clothes. Thankfully, we're in that higher class of intelligent people that can see them". Then the little boy said right out loud that the king was naked. And how very naked he was.

[46zilzal]

One certainly can say that but, until it's demonstrated, it's just them saying it. Kind of like "Didn't the king look fine in his new suit of clothes. Thankfully, we're in that higher class of intelligent people that can see them". Then the little boy said right out loud that the king was naked. And how very naked he was.
Strange 4 out of 5 of my longest priced winners ever, two over $100.00, came from just that situation. I'll stay with it thank you very much.

[nobeyerspls]

I don't see why anyone in their right mind would bet a field of 10 first timers, by the way.

I just wanted Tom to say that there could be at least one maiden race in which pace figures do not help. I think that there are many and I will post some in the Selections section this weekend.

[skate]

well, um, i think that is correct.


ill add, since todays race was never run before, it would be near impossible
to pre judge the outcome "over 60% of the time" in todays race, while using pace fig.

however, the speed could be judged at a higher rate.

[46zilzal]

With babies it is FAR FAR more simplistic: babies are learning to run. They have differing aptitudes in that regard and TIP their hands by running further and further into contests until, they graduate. They are also placed in fields of other "students" trying to learn the same lessons. One of the greatest hurdles a young horse has is to learn to apportion speed over a distance and not just expend all their energy at once. Once they "get it" they stay with a pace longer. One of the keys to maidens is move to the 2nd call in preliminary races.

Ever wonder why so many quick two year olds aren't around later other than the ones who get hurt? Most of those are just quick learners that really don't have the long term bottom required of the older runner. It is akin to the great 12 year old prodigy swimmer who never got any better by age 16. The parallels in the thoroughbred are real.

[nobeyerspls]

Strange 4 out of 5 of my longest priced winners ever, two over $100.00, came from just that situation. I'll stay with it thank you very much.

Is this after the fact redboarding or did you post them on here before they ran? You should be getting the point that posting personal stats or former winners doesn't cut it. It's the demonstration of the application in real time that counts, including some informative text. Intead of "I like the #2 horse" we should hear "the #2 will win because gray horses always do when the jockey wears a red cap".

So far a guy came forward with a chalky exacta and another one came up with two horses in a stakes race, one winning at 9/5. Is underwhelmed the appropriate word?

[46zilzal]

don't post selections day to day....

From the board I moderate.

"File BEL052802.jpg shows the "window washing" of the second race at Belmont today to set an all time record payout for yours truly.

2nd race - Belmont Park - May 28, 2007
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
11 Big Daddy Rex 123.00 37.80 16.40
7 Dr. D. F. C. 5.40 3.70
2 Striking Rizzi 3.50

I am still shaking over this one....."

and print out of same from a maiden race. Like so many testosterone laced egos, many cannot learn that HISTORY is where you become educated to these angles. Hundreds of REVIEWED races shows one where to look for things that tip their hands.

[Tom]

Is this after the fact redboarding or did you post them on here before they ran? You should be getting the point that posting personal stats or former winners doesn't cut it. It's the demonstration of the application in real time that counts, including some informative text. Intead of "I like the #2 horse" we should hear "the #2 will win because gray horses always do when the jockey wears a red cap".

So far a guy came forward with a chalky exacta and another one came up with two horses in a stakes race, one winning at 9/5. Is underwhelmed the appropriate word?

No the appropriate word if not allowed under TOS. You dipstick-you sit there putting down everyone who tried to participate in this thread and tried to pass yourself off as God's gift to handicappers. You never had any intention of dicussing pace and at the same time, you keep fishing for someone to throw you a pick to make money off of. Somebody help me out here - there is a name for people like you at the track - it isn't nice.
Go wait for your fillies to rest up. You are not worth the bother.

[Capper Al]

You have an agenda that I don't understand. I'm no longer interested in playing games. Good luck on your quest. I'm done.

I have no agenda. I stated my opinion and that does challenge the premises about Pace. If I have an agenda that would be it, to respectfully challenge handicapping premises. I have been very upfront about this. If you have another opinion then you should be able to explain why or why not. It's all about sharing ideas and becoming a better capper.

[Capper Al]

Don't think anyone here ever said just that. It is a generally accepted phenomenon that improving early speed works. Tom Ainsle pointed it out years ago.

I do agree there is something to Pace, just not what we might think. As to my part of growing into a better capper from input such as yours, I will be studying deceleration.

BTW, Ainslie at first didn't jump on the pace bandwagon. He contended that the pace was adjusted for the racing strategy. Later he hooked up with Sartin on the lecture tour and his tone changed.

[Overlay]

BTW, Ainslie at first didn't jump on the pace bandwagon. He contended that the pace was adjusted for the racing strategy. Later he hooked up with Sartin on the lecture tour and his tone changed.

I think I recall a quote in one of his earlier works (maybe the first edition of Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing) in which he referred to an adherent of pace handicapping who was kept in a closet, and who steadfastly maintained that he was Martin Van Buren.

[GaryG]

Is this after the fact redboarding or did you post them on here before they ran? You should be getting the point that posting personal stats or former winners doesn't cut it. It's the demonstration of the application in real time that counts, including some informative text. Intead of "I like the #2 horse" we should hear "the #2 will win because gray horses always do when the jockey wears a red cap".

So far a guy came forward with a chalky exacta and another one came up with two horses in a stakes race, one winning at 9/5. Is underwhelmed the appropriate word?Oh really? When you left the last time it seems like you said that you were overmatched on this board. Now you make the rules? If anybody wants to make picks they will...when they want to. I do it when I feel like it and not when somebody tells me to.

[Capper Al]

So many people look at the majority of these speed/pace numbers as some sort of absolute. When a pace rating PROJECTS as to what a horse can do in a contest today, you have to know where and from whom, that rating will be challenged as well as, HOW that challenge may augment, or detract from today's match up. If the challenge today is similar from the races these ratings were taken FROM (i.e., multiple pressers pushing a few earlier horses) okay, but if it was very much different (sustained pressers and a single presser chasing two front runners) the INTERACTION of today's match up trumps the way the numbers were created coming into today's race. One has to find past pace performances in line with the make up of today's field, and create an INTERACTIVE projection of how they might change, not a slavish adherence to a number possibly created in a race totally unlike today's challenge.

If these guys were machines, they would put out about the same numbers each race. They REACT to the others in each contest slightly differently unless they simply run away from all of them (my favorites).

My friend does pretty well with your mentioned strategies. It does appear to be somewhat subjective because of the interpretations involved. We don't really know why Pace figures work or why closers are now winning on polytracks. It could have been all along that the horses were fighting to get out of the dirt being flung in their face and not the Early Speed.

[Capper Al]

I think I recall a quote in one of his earlier works (maybe the first edition of Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing) in which he referred to an adherent of pace handicapping who was kept in a closet, and who steadfastly maintained that he was Martin Van Buren.

I believe that was about Speed handicappers by Andy Beyer in Picking Winners.

[Overlay]

I Googled the quote, and it was about speed handicappers (as you indicated), rather than pace handicappers. (My mistake.) However, it was Ainslie who originally said it (although Beyer may have quoted it in Picking Winners). (The exact wording was "Very few speed handicappers are lolling in loot. One of them we know is rarely let out of the attic, and steadfastly maintains that he is Martin Van Buren.")

[Kelso]

I have a mechanical maiden play based on my figures. It uses an early speed rating I generate based on early position, pace call pace figure, distance and surface


CJ,
Which call is the "pace call?" Is pace call a standard phrase among pace handicappers, or is it something you have developed for your own 'capping?

Thank you.

[Cratos]

In reading through this thread I have not seen a distinction made between pace and speed or I might have overlooked it.

Therefore in my humble opinion pace is the shape of the race and is determined by the running styles of the horses in the race and the track surface speed resistance on which the race was run. In contrast, speed is measured in distance at any point of time of the race and is also influence by the track surface speed resistance, but determined by the innate speed ability of the horses in the race.

Pace is a function of speed determined by running style.

[46zilzal]

My friend does pretty well with your mentioned strategies. It does appear to be somewhat subjective because of the interpretations involved. We don't really know why Pace figures work or why closers are now winning on polytracks. It could have been all along that the horses were fighting to get out of the dirt being flung in their face and not the Early Speed.

No it is all based upon velocities (values) and their correlations.

[46zilzal]

We don't really know why Pace figures work or why closers are now winning on polytracks.
It is as easy as the very old expression describes it: HORSES for courses: some horses with the right style win at certain tracks. Each race track has an energy requiring blueprint that varies only slightly from day to day (unless they "soup it up" for big races CD and AQU) and if a horse is not able to reproduce the winning style versus today's pace structure that is usually associated with a particular distance and surface, their chances of winning fall tremendously.

[cj]

CJ,
Which call is the "pace call?" Is pace call a standard phrase among pace handicappers, or is it something you have developed for your own 'capping?

Thank you.

Pace call is generally considered 4f in sprints, and 6f in routes.

[nobeyerspls]

Oh really? When you left the last time it seems like you said that you were overmatched on this board. Now you make the rules? If anybody wants to make picks they will...when they want to. I do it when I feel like it and not when somebody tells me to.

When I left before it was because I knew little about pace handicapping. I came back after some time off to finish a novel and before doing so I read some material on the subject.
I am not outmatched by any one on here in any aspect of life (excluding the golf course). Was it too much to ask for a practical application? Is that making a rule? Isn't this place about sharing information?

[nobeyerspls]

No the appropriate word if not allowed under TOS. You dipstick-you sit there putting down everyone who tried to participate in this thread and tried to pass yourself off as God's gift to handicappers. You never had any intention of dicussing pace and at the same time, you keep fishing for someone to throw you a pick to make money off of. Somebody help me out here - there is a name for people like you at the track - it isn't nice.
Go wait for your fillies to rest up. You are not worth the bother.

Looks like I touched a nerve as you have resorted to name calling. I never put anyone down here, just asked for a practical application of the pace method in maiden races. Was that too much? You saw an honest request for information, that was and is my intention, as a challenge and were intimidated by it.
Also, when someone says that they can learn something new that means that they are still learning. Never said I was God's gift but did share some things that work for me.
I never bet anyone else's picks as I don't need to. It's the reasoning behind the pick that I'm interested in as it may help in in those types of races that are difficult for me. I think I mentioned elsewhere that I stink at open claiming males sprinting (even as God's gift). As a horizontal player I am forced to handicap these from time to time, so I look in the Selections section all the time for insights. So far no luck.
So lighten up. It's OK if you don't want to share. And please, no name calling. It's beneath you.

[nobeyerspls]

One certainly can say that but, until it's demonstrated, it's just them saying it. Kind of like "Didn't the king look fine in his new suit of clothes. Thankfully, we're in that higher class of intelligent people that can see them". Then the little boy said right out loud that the king was naked. And how very naked he was.

Send the guys with the white coats, I'm talking to myself.

If your looking for a practical application of pace handicapping, forget it. It ain't gonna happen here. You will get some technical jargon and some anecdotal stuff but nothing of substance. And be careful, some of these guys are real touchy on the subject.
A few on here incorrectly saw a request for a realtime demonstration as a challenge, forcing then to "defend" the method. That was never intended. So let's not say that they are unable to demonstrate it, let's take them at their word and say that they are unwilling.
In a bit of irony, I might use pace handicapping in a crude and very non-technical way. In maiden events I have to handicap under key angle horses in trifectas. I look for horses coming out of fast races using raw times and looking at the variant. I place a premium on those that attended a fast early pace and I don't care where they were at the finish. I looked back at some racing forms that I saved and found one that hit the board at 7-1. Absent the live event tutorial I was looking for on here, I'll use that.
Like I said, I'm talking to myself.

[Tom]

Use some of that money you won to buy a personality. You are in desperate need of one.

Between here, CJ's board and HTR, there have been many examples of good pace plays - if you can't find them, you aren't looking very hard. 46 tried to show you a good example and you changed the subject to red-boarding.
You are not looking for anything but an argument.

Maybe you should try shutting up and reading.

[Capper Al]

I Googled the quote, and it was about speed handicappers (as you indicated), rather than pace handicappers. (My mistake.) However, it was Ainslie who originally said it (although Beyer may have quoted it in Picking Winners). (The exact wording was "Very few speed handicappers are lolling in loot. One of them we know is rarely let out of the attic, and steadfastly maintains that he is Martin Van Buren.")

I loved when I first read it. I wish Andy Beyer would just hire himself to write other people's handicapping books. A lot of good books with good ideas out there, but few can't write them as well and making reading them so enjoyable as Andy.

[46zilzal]

I loved when I first read it. I wish Andy Beyer would just hire himself to write other people's handicapping books. A lot of good books with good ideas out there, but few can't write them as well and making reading them so enjoyable as Andy.
Mark Cramer is in a class by himself in that arena.

[Capper Al]

In reading through this thread I have not seen a distinction made between pace and speed or I might have overlooked it.

Therefore in my humble opinion pace is the shape of the race and is determined by the running styles of the horses in the race and the track surface speed resistance on which the race was run. In contrast, speed is measured in distance at any point of time of the race and is also influence by the track surface speed resistance, but determined by the innate speed ability of the horses in the race.

Pace is a function of speed determined by running style.

One of my earlier points addressed this issue. When a capper says the horse has Early Speed, what does he mean? Does he mean the relative position at the first call or the velocity at the second call or the velocity at the first or the relative postion at the second call or some combination of these? It's hard to tell. What is this thing we call Pace?

[46zilzal]

One of my earlier points addressed this issue. When a capper says the horse has Early Speed, what does he mean? Does he mean the relative position at the first call or the velocity at the second call or the velocity at the first or the relative postion at the second call or some combination of these? It's hard to tell. What is this thing we call Pace?

There is the Brohamer positional school and the Sartin velocity school. Neither one is 100% correct but from years of tinkering with both ideas I would rank it 20:80 Brohamer:Sartin philosophy.

If a horse runs early, he distributes his energy like an early. If he is unable to have a velocity to get an opening fraction of 22.0 and is not UP on the pace, he is still early even if running 6th.

[cj]

What is this thing we call Pace?

Pace is a combination of position, velocity, pressure, and how those interact to produce a race's outcome.

[46zilzal]

Pace is a combination of position, velocity, pressure, and how those interact to produce a race's outcome.
I could agree on that assessment easily.

[Capper Al]

It is as easy as the very old expression describes it: HORSES for courses: some horses with the right style win at certain tracks. Each race track has an energy requiring blueprint that varies only slightly from day to day (unless they "soup it up" for big races CD and AQU) and if a horse is not able to reproduce the winning style versus today's pace structure that is usually associated with a particular distance and surface, their chances of winning fall tremendously.

46,

I understand this as make a track profile and fitting the horse to the profile. This is a very successful way to handicap anything. Is it effective enough to put the paper and pencil capper out of business? I don't know. I still believe the most important knowledge is the knowledge about horses and racing similar to how cappers use angles, not numbers. I'm a city boy, so I am dependent on numbers while I get my education from watching and handicapping.

[46zilzal]

I continually scoff at that approach. Horses are never evaluated in isolation: they are always reacting to the pace of a race unless they are going wire to wire making every call which is an effect in itself.

The classic example of how a pace set up can ruin the chances of a horse was Cigar's Pacific Classic. The key was Siphon. Bailey couldn't go with him but had to stay close. Compromised either way and it showed. All alone he looked very very good but in that pace context he looked vulnerable and was.

[Capper Al]

Mark Cramer is in a class by himself in that arena.

Agree.

[Capper Al]

Pace is a combination of position, velocity, pressure, and how those interact to produce a race's outcome.

I like your pressure. If there is a reason why I hang on to Pace it is because I believe that Pace measures strength and ability in combat not velocity.

[Capper Al]

If any horses should show some deceleration, it should be fillies on a route turf. Let's hope for good weather while we observe another instance of pace analysis in a router turf race. Hope we get some takers.


ENTRIES 8TH CRC SEPTEMBER 22

1 1/16 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES 3 YEAR OLDS
NONGRADED STAKE
PURSE $100,000 ( 4:01) (15)

1 LANGWORTHY 04 L117 SANCHEZ JEFFREY AZPURUA MANUEL J
2 SWEET EXCHANGE 04 L119 LOPEZ J E WARREN FRED G
3 JOAN'S ROYAL DAWN 04 L117 MORALES PABLO CRUISE JOHN
4 CASA MIMATY 04 L119 OLIVERO C A OLIVARES LUIS
5 FIESTIVE EVENT 04 117 CHIRINOS ROIMES MUENCH DAVID L
6 SNOW CONE 04 L119 TRUJILLO E WOLFSON MARTIN D
7A MARIA'S KITTY 04 L115 CARDOSO DAVID MCDONALD MICHAEL
8 THE REAL FUTURE 04 L117 COA DANIEL CREEL RICK
9 SPIRITED SEACAT 04 L117 GARCIA J A COLLAZO HENRY
10 SUAVENESS 04 L115 AGUILAR M ARANGO ROBERTO
11 ARCH NEMESIS 04 L117 LEYVA J C SPATZ RONALD B
12 ISLAND FRIEND 04 L117 NUNEZ E O COLLAZO HENRY
13A SCOOTER GIRL 04 L119 CARDOSO DAVID MCDONALD MICHAEL
14 BANDA VICTORIA 04 L115 CRUZ M R GLEAVES PHILIP
15 COZZI CAPITAL 04 L115 FUENTES RAYMUND WILENSKY HERMAN
A-COUPLED: MARIA'S KITTY AND SCOOTER GIRL

Let's not forget this race for further our discussion on Pace.

[Fastracehorse]

One of my earlier points addressed this issue. When a capper says the horse has Early Speed, what does he mean? Does he mean the relative position at the first call or the velocity at the second call or the velocity at the first or the relative postion at the second call or some combination of these? It's hard to tell. What is this thing we call Pace?

It is assessing from the PP's who is most likely to get the lead. Of course, in DRF you have the first call.

If a horse is always first at the first call - he will probably grab the lead again. This point is obvious.

The importance of controlling the pace of a race cannot be understated. Thankfully however, it is not everything.

In the evolution of a handicapper, developing the ability to determine the front-runner is an important part of the process. It gives the player a sense of empowerment, ie, this is an amazing game that can predicted accurately and with regularity.

Also, there are players that cannot be or will not be dynamic punters. I have seen these type of handicappers play the fastest quarters - un-adjusted! - in sprints only - and hit bombs regularly. Alas, the power of early speed.

I want to be included in all types of winners - so although I need to know the early speed - I want to find a way to beat it too.

fffastt

[Capper Al]

It is assessing from the PP's who is most likely to get the lead. Of course, in DRF you have the first call.

I don't know of a past performance publisher that doesn't have the first call.

If a horse is always first at the first call - he will probably grab the lead again. This point is obvious.

Agree

The importance of controlling the pace of a race cannot be understated. Thankfully however, it is not everything.

Agree mostly, but polytracks are producing more closers now. This makes me wonder that when Early Speed was king on dirt tracks were the horses just trying to get out of having dirt being flung in their face? Polytracks don't kick up stuff like dirt tracks.

In the evolution of a handicapper, developing the ability to determine the front-runner is an important part of the process. It gives the player a sense of empowerment, ie, this is an amazing game that can predicted accurately and with regularity.

It is a mark in a handicapper's evolution to come to understand the possible trip. This is growth from being only a speed handicapper.

Also, there are players that cannot be or will not be dynamic punters. I have seen these type of handicappers play the fastest quarters - un-adjusted! - in sprints only - and hit bombs regularly. Alas, the power of early speed.

Agree. The question becomes was this pace or finding the hidden move that indicated that the horse was ready to run?

I want to be included in all types of winners - so although I need to know the early speed - I want to find a way to beat it too.

Agree.

fffastt

Back in color font for this posting folks. I know some of you PA squatters get excited about this. You need a life.

[PaceAdvantage]

Listen, the hostility level is getting higher and higher these days, and I don't appreciate it. This thread is a prime example.

Either hold discussions in a civilized, above 6th grade manner, or don't hold them at all....if threads and posts start disappearing, don't ask me why....ya'll will already know the answer.

[DanG]

There is the Brohamer positional school and the Sartin velocity school. Neither one is 100% correct but from years of tinkering with both ideas I would rank it 20:80 Brohamer:Sartin philosophy.

46; This statement seems to exclude Brohamer from the velocity school and we both know that’s not the case.

As was stated well by CJ and others it’s the dynamics between position / velocity and racing pressure that are the cutting edge in this discipline. Brohamer has talked about this many times and certainty his leading disciple Ken Massa (MPH developer and now HTR) is a strong advocate of this interaction.

[classhandicapper]

Pace is a combination of position, velocity, pressure, and how those interact to produce a race's outcome.

:ThmbUp:

[Cratos]

So many people look at the majority of these speed/pace numbers as some sort of absolute. When a pace rating PROJECTS as to what a horse can do in a contest today, you have to know where and from whom, that rating will be challenged as well as, HOW that challenge may augment, or detract from today's match up. If the challenge today is similar from the races these ratings were taken FROM (i.e., multiple pressers pushing a few earlier horses) okay, but if it was very much different (sustained pressers and a single presser chasing two front runners) the INTERACTION of today's match up trumps the way the numbers were created coming into today's race. One has to find past pace performances in line with the make up of today's field, and create an INTERACTIVE projection of how they might change, not a slavish adherence to a number possibly created in a race totally unlike today's challenge.

If these guys were machines, they would put out about the same numbers each race. They REACT to the others in each contest slightly differently unless they simply run away from all of them (my favorites).

Might be the best and most realistic explanation of pace in this thread thus far.

[Tom]

You can find examples probably every day in the DRF - a horse that is lone early and goes wire-to-wire and gets Beyer of 88, then everytime he is challenged early, he fades and runs Beyers in the low 60's.

If he is NOT the lone early today, do you really want to rate him off a lone early race or a race where he was challenged?

[46zilzal]

Brohamer has talked about this many times and certainty his leading disciple Ken Massa (MPH developer and now HTR) is a strong advocate of this interaction.
Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but Massa is not Brohamer.

[DanG]

Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but Massa is not Brohamer.
I’m not sure what you point is 46.

You’re not saying that Brohamer advocated position at the exclusion of velocity…RU? We both know that’s not the case.

[46zilzal]

I’m not sure what you point is 46.

You’re not saying that Brohamer advocated position at the exclusion of velocity…RU? We both know that’s not the case.

Did the word EXCLUSION ever appear in my description? It it did I was misquoted.

No more than Sartin is all velocity. But the dichotomy of difference at the heart of definitions is based upon completely different criteria.

[DanG]

Did the word EXCLUSION ever appear in my description? It it did I was misquoted.

No more than Sartin is all velocity. But the dichotomy of difference at the heart of definitions is based upon completely different criteria.
How are you doing 46…Is everything OK?

[Capper Al]

Listen, the hostility level is getting higher and higher these days, and I don't appreciate it. This thread is a prime example.

Either hold discussions in a civilized, above 6th grade manner, or don't hold them at all....if threads and posts start disappearing, don't ask me why....ya'll will already know the answer.

I hope you are not taking outrage to anything I said.

[Capper Al]

Did the word EXCLUSION ever appear in my description? It it did I was misquoted.

No more than Sartin is all velocity. But the dichotomy of difference at the heart of definitions is based upon completely different criteria.

Let's try to settle this. How are they (Brohammer and Sartin) similar in relative position, and how are they different? How are they similar in velocity and how are they different. This should be good info.

[Capper Al]

You can find examples probably every day in the DRF - a horse that is lone early and goes wire-to-wire and gets Beyer of 88, then everytime he is challenged early, he fades and runs Beyers in the low 60's.

If he is NOT the lone early today, do you really want to rate him off a lone early race or a race where he was challenged?

I agree. That's a tough call because one really doesn't know based on one line what happened in the race.

[46zilzal]

Let's try to settle this. How are they (Brohammer and Sartin) similar in relative position, and how are they different? How are they similar in velocity and how are they different. This should be good info.
Gambler's Book Club: both resource books are there for your reading pleasure.