MDN.RACES

[bugboy]

as we know most trainers aren't out to win EVERY race, some races are used as a conditioner. with that being said, what about first time starters? are the trainers out to win that first race, or could it be a conditioner race? any input to this question is appreciated. and as always,,thanks 'cappers

[GaryG]

You never know for sure, but you have to know the trainers' habits. Some win often 1st out and some almost never. Also, some specialize in winning on the stretch out. My advice is to pick one or two circuits, follow the races closely and keep accurate records of who wins with what. The trainer stats in BRIS and DRF will help some, but can be misleading. I hope that this helps you.

[46zilzal]

Horses are honest. Babies are learning. Trainers just show them and don't run. Most babies tell you when they are ready .

[Kelso]

Horses are honest. Babies are learning. Trainers just show them and don't run. Most babies tell you when they are ready



Don't know if it was typical, or even if my impression is correct, but it seemed to me that very few first-timers won at the Monmouth meet this year ... even in fields in which they amounted to 75%+ of the runners.

[WJ47]

If I'm really in a careless betting mood and the field is full of slow horses with multiple losing efforts, I'll play a first timer. Sometimes they pay off good.

If I'm handicapping a race and I see a trainer with a terrible percentage for first time starters, I'll probably assume that he believes in using the first race as a learning experience only.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Trainers are more likely to try to win the first race on speed-favoring tracks; and most trainers who race their horses over 5 weeks from the last race or 2 weeks or more from the last workout are trying to win.

[Light]

what about first time starters?

If you see a FTS bred by Five Star Day or Indian Charlie or similar high % FTS sires,you dont ask questions. Otherwise,experience rules.

[1st time lasix]

I have several criteria I try to incorporate into handling MSW firsters: Like to see the higher quality pedigree,.... like to see TWO workouts around 12 seconds per furlong or less, .....like to see the workouts weekly without noticable gaps,....love it if the horse showed speed in the am in some of earlier works and the trainer has been increasing the length of his works more recently........trainer at least 10% or higher in that situation .....and no other entry having run "par" for that level who looks to do it again. Prefer to see the horse in a more middle to outside post. The Tomlinson numbers help {particularly in mud or on grass} ....but not as important as the other factors I consider. Inexperience can beat a talented firster. But they can open up an exotic to a nice score under the proper circumstances. I could care less who the jock is unless he can't get a horse to stay on a merry-go-round. I rarely bet a firster in a maiden claim UNLESS the trainer has a greater than 15% stat in debut maidan claims. Only time i am willing to do it. Obviously the trainer is willing to lose a horse to win and has done it before. Most firsters in for a tag have no talent. I think baby races are much more interesting than low level claiming races. I pass all claiming events at 15 k or less as a rule. They all are hurt.... or lack talent. you could probaly buy them all for 15 k! :lol:

[point given]

trainers and owners change, and now track surfaces as well. Some used to be automatic tosses, and now they recognize the game changed and owners want more immediate results. (Zito for one ) Others realize the poly era is here and if they want to run in CA. they better buy different type horses (Baffert)
Depends if 2yo or 3yo, when foaled, breeding, early win and speed or bred to go long. How well developed the horse is, lots of regular works ? speed works ? longer works ? Some trainers aim for a particular meet with babies and know what they've got ( ? Curlin ) some wait til late summer early fall waiting for the horse to grow, while others aim for keeneland/ belmont time.
Then there is the board, and the 12/1 ML opening at 3/1. hmm.... ;)

[jotb]

I have several criteria I try to incorporate into handling MSW firsters: Like to see the higher quality pedigree,.... like to see TWO workouts around 12 seconds per furlong or less, .....like to see the workouts weekly without noticable gaps,....love it if the horse showed speed in the am in some of earlier works and the trainer has been increasing the length of his works more recently........trainer at least 10% or higher in that situation .....and no other entry having run "par" for that level who looks to do it again. Prefer to see the horse in a more middle to outside post. The Tomlinson numbers help {particularly in mud or on grass} ....but not as important as the other factors I consider. Inexperience can beat a talented firster. But they can open up an exotic to a nice score under the proper circumstances. I could care less who the jock is unless he can't get a horse to stay on a merry-go-round. I rarely bet a firster in a maiden claim UNLESS the trainer has a greater than 15% stat in debut maidan claims. Only time i am willing to do it. Obviously the trainer is willing to lose a horse to win and has done it before. Most firsters in for a tag have no talent. I think baby races are much more interesting than low level claiming races. I pass all claiming events at 15 k or less as a rule. They all are hurt.... or lack talent. you could probaly buy them all for 15 k! :lol:

Hello 1st time lasix:

You covered that quite well. I was wondering if you rather have your FTS running with blinkers on or off and do you prefer to have your FTS with or without lasix? I believe breeding plays a significant role with FTS. I like to see my FTS bred for speed top and bottom and it helps to take a look at what the dam's prodigy has done on the racetrack.

In regard to maiden claiming FTS, I have to agree with you that most don't have talent or should we say the trainer does not think much of the horse not to try a MSW at least once but on the other hand, I know several trainers that will steal first time out in maiden claimer events especially if owned by the trainer. Most owners rather run MSW first out even if the horse lacks talent just because of all the money already they have put into the horse. I will take a stab with a firster in a maiden claimer where the purchase price is lower than the claiming price the horse is in for but the field has to be filled with professional maidens and not one of the horses in the race is dropping from MSW company.

Best regards,
Joe

[Tom]

Can a FTS have blinkers OFF?

[1st time lasix]

:lol: Can a FTS have blinkers OFF? Good one! Some run with a blindfold! Lasix first time on a FTS is irrelevent to my decisions. In fact if I owned an expensive horse .....I might not want the owner to run with the juice right out of the box. The jockey would never ride again on my horse if he beat 'em with the whip first time either! Only a couple of taps if the horse were in the hunt and was not focused.

[1st time lasix]

Hello 1st time lasix:

You covered that quite well. I was wondering if you rather have your FTS running with blinkers on or off and do you prefer to have your FTS with or without lasix? I believe breeding plays a significant role with FTS. I like to see my FTS bred for speed top and bottom and it helps to take a look at what the dam's prodigy has done on the racetrack.

In regard to maiden claiming FTS, I have to agree with you that most don't have talent or should we say the trainer does not think much of the horse not to try a MSW at least once but on the other hand, I know several trainers that will steal first time out in maiden claimer events especially if owned by the trainer. Most owners rather run MSW first out even if the horse lacks talent just because of all the money already they have put into the horse. I will take a stab with a firster in a maiden claimer where the purchase price is lower than the claiming price the horse is in for but the field has to be filled with professional maidens and not one of the horses in the race is dropping from MSW company.

Best regards,
Joe Excellent point Joe! I will incorporate that in to my thinking. Much appreciated.

[cnollfan]

I don't have the numbers to prove it either way, but anecdotally, I think blinkers on a first-time starter is a negative. Indicates the horse has some issues. I would be interested in any stats on the subject.

[Capper Al]

as we know most trainers aren't out to win EVERY race, some races are used as a conditioner. with that being said, what about first time starters? are the trainers out to win that first race, or could it be a conditioner race? any input to this question is appreciated. and as always,,thanks 'cappers

Many cappers just throw out FTS. I've tried for a few years to cap them, but looking back can't help but say just throwing them out would have done just as well if not better.