Emirates to Dubai

[Robert Fischer]

BELMONT 9/12

Race 7 OC50k n2x 8furlongs Turf

Godolphin's Emirates to Dubai stretches out 2.5 furlong. There is a full field and some decent horses. Hopefully he is made the morning line favorite. He could well be much the best, but it is always hard to jump in class and distance in a full field. Has the pedigree to go a mile. Vulnerable?

PPS http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_87126.pdf

EtD was featured in a paceadvantage thread where he beat Gold Trippi on 7/27 http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=404245&highlight=godolphin#post404245


also BELMONT 9/12
RACE 8
EZ Warrior vs. Tiz Wonderful http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/baffert_87118.pdf

[Robert Fischer]

Emirates to Dubai looks very talented. This isn't a play against situation.

[Robert Fischer]

Weird. The oddsmaker is sending EtD off at 4th choice @ 5-1.

[Spiderman]

First try at distance and tough outside post are two knocks against. Morning line is 5-1 and with continuous, heavy rain today, it is likely that race will be switched to main track.

[Maji]

I like the following two horses over Emirates to Dubai:

#6 Prince Rahy - Nice speed and workout figures, but I don't like the odds.

#2B Buckeye Wonder - the connections are a bit weak but like the odds and I think has a good chance on an "off" turf.

[samyn on the green]

I'm almost certain this race will be on the grass. It was dry for 18 consecutive days before todays rains. A cold front has moved through the area and it is will be sky clear, low humidity with a brisk wind tomorrow. Perfect confditons to dry out the turf.

There are a few knocks today. Emirates 2 DXB did have a sweetheart pace scenario last out with no less than 5 cheap speeds duking it out in a sultry duel. Now he has to stretch out, not the ideal distance move for a sprint closer.

However the colt is bred to be a good one and this Storm Cat has every reason to get 1 mile. The outside post in a one turn race is not a issue. There are some pace horses signed on here so it is not an impossible task. The numbers and my gut has EK 2 DXB as a winner. 5-1 is unlikely but if that is the price he is worth a win wager for sure.

[samyn on the green]

Another very interesting horse is Sea Of Trees. Ran twice at this level during the spring and has a winning effort off a long layoff. The layoff today is no worry on the turf. The works are blazing for a a barn that sat out the Spa to crank for this meet. Distance should be right in the wheelhouse and the pace looks right. The value play at 15-1.

[Robert Fischer]

How Soft ?

Operation Red Dawn - True turf horse who bested Red Giant in last over a turf course labled Good. 4 month Layoff looks to be no problem. Run's best fresh.

Unbeleiver - Clement entry should relish a non-firm going. Didn't show much in US debut, although choked early and often by Gomez. Looked a little bit on the small side

Santa's Gold - Trippi gelding, longshot without the recent form to contend. Two removed from Hough.

Buckeye Wonder - he is a decent looking horse, but a little cheap and wants more distance.

Friar - very solid breeding. Merely a solid performer. 1st off claim to trainer I know little about. Has no problems with a softer going.

Jacinth - exits a very fast 1st on turf try in Jersey. I have a strong feeling this "dirt horse" prefers a very firm going. Goldberg gets it done on soft (not necessarily in NY)

Tiverton - will be forwardly placed with JV, damside has carried him through Non-Firm-Turfs before. Has the style and form to be in winning contention entering the stretch.

Prince Rahy - Pedigree suggests NFT isn't strongsuit, and record reflects, although some very solid efforts. Nice big horse very solid form puts him among leading contenders, not really a big turn of foot.

Giant Gizmo - Frankel has this one right. Frontrunner could suffer if the going is softer. A classic Frankel Scratch ?

Gran Estreno - Dutrow's Mystery horse. In general I stereotype the ARG horses as being versatile but not a natural class Turf horse. He did however take the Gran Premio on soft going (a race won by Forty Licks the previous year). His record indicates he prefers turf more than just being a versatile runner. Off 9 months solid works good jockey.

Sea of Trees - Was in good form last year. Lifetime best a 3rd in the KENt stakes, tryed to move this one up the class ladder. Solid effort and then a clunker in May. Training well.

Emirates To Dubai - Bred for class and has twice shown a classy turn of foot. Always hard to step up in class&Distance. 2.5 furlongs is a very big jump to stretch out, particularly in a full field. May not prefer a non-firm going, but shouldn't fall apart.

[Robert Fischer]

http://www.ieah.com/cgi-bin/stable_roster_detail.cgi?horse=1000099

[judd]

well then who are you playing gran estreno or emirates ??

[Robert Fischer]

well then who are you playing gran estreno or emirates ??

waiting to see scratches and track condition

I am leaning toward playing Emirates and Red Dawn over Rahy,Estreno,Tiverton

[judd]

if not on turf who are you leaning to?

[shanta]

On the turf which is labeled "good". Scratches not up yet.

Thanks Robert for the great writeup :ThmbUp:
Richie

[judd]

emirates bet down to 7-5
no way i would bet when morning line 5-1


red dawn was the play

[Maji]

I like the following two horses over Emirates to Dubai:

#6 Prince Rahy - Nice speed and workout figures, but I don't like the odds.

#2B Buckeye Wonder - the connections are a bit weak but like the odds and I think has a good chance on an "off" turf.

Those were some nice prices today. I did not like Emirates and I wish there was a place where I could have lay betted against it.

[JustRalph]

Emirates looked to me like he didn't want that extra distance............

[Robert Fischer]

waiting to see scratches and track condition

I am leaning toward playing Emirates and Red Dawn over Rahy,Estreno,Tiverton


not a bad little exacta. I ended up boxing the group and playing some tris with EtD on top so i just made a few bucks.