Automatic Underlay / Automatic Overlay

[SignUpKing]

The Next Level
NOTE: This e-mail is not meant to inflame, insult or talk down to anyone. Nor I am I trying to come off as a know-it-all. That said, admittedly I don't know it all, but I know what I know, and you don't have to know it all. Most winning players I know are specialists. I only post this in the hopes of helping someone whose thought process is not producing profits.

There are patterns out there (i.e., in the form) that I have uncovered through the years, that have yielded me great profits. I have 3 "pet plays" that produce a profit, and rarely do these horses have form that an expert would side with.

My "pet plays" have nothing to do with speed, class, money won, or any of the other common handicapping factors. In fact, I like these "pet plays" better when they have low Beyers and seemingly poor form.

I subscribe to an "Automatic Underlay / Automatic Overlay" point of view. Realistically, you do not need to be at the race track to know if your horse will be an underlay or an overlay. Think about that for a minute. It's true. (Don't you know how the public reads the Racing Form?)

My "pet plays" are usually "Automatic Overlays" -- because I know the public can't bet 'em: the form evidenced therein is not classic "good form", is not the kind of stuff James Quinn would be able to bet.

That is how I took my game to the next level. How did you do it?

[PaceAdvantage]

NOTE: This e-mail is not meant to inflame, insult or talk down to anyone.

That's good to know, especially seeing as it isn't an e-mail....lol

But seriously, good post...

[nobeyerspls]

The Next Level

There are patterns out there (i.e., in the form) that I have uncovered through the years, that have yielded me great profits. I have 3 "pet plays" that produce a profit, and rarely do these horses have form that an expert would side with.

My "pet plays" have nothing to do with speed, class, money won, or any of the other common handicapping factors. In fact, I like these "pet plays" better when they have low Beyers and seemingly poor form.


That is how I took my game to the next level. How did you do it?

You might be my long lost twin. See my thread "Another Level" which talks about angles that are used as screens to find live longshots. I've found seven of them over the years and they can produce large payouts (also, more than a few losing tickets). With them you can bet a little to win a lot. At their most extreme, a $20 bet will return $10,000.
Traditional handicapping doesn't find these as the expected result is hidden in the past performances in a very subtle way and figures are not relevant.
Nice to see someone else doing this.

[Tom]

Hmmmm. Anderon has a win, too.


$20 brings back $10,000?
What kind of bet?
Any examples?

[nobeyerspls]

Hmmmm. Anderon has a win, too.


$20 brings back $10,000?
What kind of bet?
Any examples?

I posted some longshots in the morning a week ago Saturday. One of them included a $107.90 winner and the 7-1 and 12-1 that came in behind her. The exacta was $788 and the trifecta was $12.9k. I included the reasons for betting them. I'm a $1 exotic player so I got back $7,158 for $23 with a win/place bet included.
There was a larger one in May ($13.6k for $18) but including it in this response is redboarding. Further, it was a $1 superfecta which I didn't really handicap since I used the all button for the 4th spot (naturally the favorite showed up there). I did however key the 20-1 winner and I handicapped both the trifecta and exacta.
Both of these winners were freshened fillies with very bad prior races so figures of any type would not point to them.

[Maji]

nobeyers,


Thanks for your replies. Can you give some pointers on how you determine a horse is "freshened" enough to warrant a bet?

Thanks for your nuggets.

[Tom]

Yes you did. I see in in selections.
That's not redbording, that's bragging - your earned it!:ThmbUp:

[ryesteve]

Realistically, you do not need to be at the race track to know if your horse will be an underlay or an overlay. Think about that for a minute. It's true. (Don't you know how the public reads the Racing Form?)
Times are changing though. These days there are inordinate number horses that I like that are 8-1 or 10-1 on the ML, and wind up going off at 2-1 or 5/2. And these are horses that do look ugly on paper. I suspect it's not the public reading the DRF, it's people at the their computers overbetting into tracks without enough handle to absorb these bets.

[nobeyerspls]

nobeyers,


Thanks for your replies. Can you give some pointers on how you determine a horse is "freshened" enough to warrant a bet?

Thanks for your nuggets.

One to four months is ideal but it usually works just with fillies. The exceptions are the male offspring of Meadowlake and Phone Trick. Then too, some trainers can get colts ready off a layoff and that info is in the stats.

The key is accepting the counter intuitive nature of the wager. Most of the times we look at the past performances and expect something that happened before to happen again. With these it's the opposite. We expect what looks like the impossible to happen. The key is in the morning works and sometimes there will be a change of equipment. If all the workouts are two or three furlongs don't make the bet. There should be a decent series of them with one or more close to the best of the day.

[dav4463]

Sometimes I would do better if I took my rankings of horses in the race and then turn my list upside down!

Actually my best bets have been on horses that I have as the third, fourth, or fifth choice in the race and just play the odds. The stronger the favorite, the better the payoff when it gets beat.

[Maji]

Thanks nobeyers.


I guess the females can always come back better than males. :lol:

[Edward DeVere]

Actually my best bets have been on horses that I have as the third, fourth, or fifth choice in the race and just play the odds. The stronger the favorite, the better the payoff when it gets beat.

So - How will you bet from now on?