3rd fraction horses

[shoelessjoe]

I was listening to an old Sartin seminar tape and Doc was talking about putting horses in your computer program that will only run in the 3rd fraction.He said that they would only screw up your readouts and dont win all that much.Any opinions on this?Shoeless

[Handiman]

Don't quite understand what you're getting at....what do they do, ride in a truck to get to the third fraction and then start running? I'm familiar with quite a bit of the old Sartin stuff, but never heard that.

Can you be a bit more specific?

Handi

[DJofSD]

Doc used to call those one move horses. Yes, they'll foul you up more often than not. I strongly suspect the reason why he did not want those in the computer is because of the way the software treated the 3rd fraction in relation to the rest of the race. Remember, if you put it in the computer you're saying it's a contender. And with a bogus contender, the program is going to make it look better than it is and the rest look worse off. Doc's programs worked from the perspective of you having preselected the true contenders. It does not separate out the wheat from the chaff. If you want to put put garbage into the software you had better have a real good understanding of the race ahead of time so you know when you have some spurious read outs.

[shoelessjoe]

DJ,Thanks.I have been finding this to be true by entering these types of horses they will tend to end up on top of the readouts.As Brohammer once said garbage in garbage out.Shoeless

[shoelessjoe]

Handi,I guess your not as familiar with the Sartin stuff as you thought.Shoeless

[DJofSD]

they will tend to end up on top of the readouts.

Yes, and when they do, as I said earlier, you had better have a very good idea about how the race is going to unfold ahead of time. Then you have to ask yourself the Dirty Harry question: "well, do ya, punk?" That is feel lucky today. One move horses must have a lot going in their favor to be seriously considered on the win end -- pace scenario, field size, how far out of it will they be when they make that one run.

[michiken]

This brings up a thought... what is a horse's true final velocity?

Consider a horse that wires the field running 6 furlongs:

The horse ran the 4f time in 45.0 seconds
The horse ran the 6f time in 111.0 (71 seconds)
(1 furlong = 660 feet)

The horses final velocity = distance/time = (6 x 660) ft/71s = 55.775 feet/second.

Calculate the horses final fraction = distance/time = (2 x 660) ft/ (71-45) = 50.769.

Which is the truer horses final velocity 55.775 or 50.769?

The 55.775 (essentially the speed rating) is a static number while the 50.769 is a dynamic number that indicates deceleration. Does the poor final fraction indicate that the horse was all out to run the race? Depending on the field the horse will be facing the next time, I like to peg these types as quitters.

I would argue that a horse needs a good combination of both to be considered as a contender. Why do you think these types lose at 3-5 even though they ran the faster half and final times?

This is why energy distribution, pace, position, the ability to rate and distance fall into the equation when I handicap.

[The Judge]

This is the discussion that we are having (to a small degree) under the match-up book. In Match-up 1 and 2 "Jim The Hat" Addresses this issue on page 124 in the new book and on page 94 in the old.

The new books graph in incorrect. This is sometihing that Pizzola and Hambelton worked on alot. It is easy to see how you can have a slow horse with the fastest 3rd fraction in the race but in fact that horse is not a contender to win.

One must remember in the Match-up at least you are looking for the winner not the place horse or the trifecta horse which the 3rd fraction horse may very well be.

[46zilzal]

The Silky's of this world don't get there often enough to pay for the wagers, unless they are blade runners (turfers).

Speed wins, early wins, closers just continue to close usually AFTER the finish line.

[GaryG]

Here are the Del Mar meet totals for wire-to-wire winners on poly from BRIS:

6F 21%
6.5F 26%
1 mile 15%
1 1/16 5%

Speed wasn't exactly king there. Pressers were easily the dominant running style.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Too many excuses for closers.

[Handiman]

Shoeless,


I lived down by the Doc in the early years. I started using his first program and didn't care much for his stuff. So backed off. My response was a bit tongue in cheek. Some people have good success with Sartin, I just wasn't one of them.

Handi

[jfdinneen]

Which is the truer horses final velocity 55.775 or 50.769?

Michiken,

For what it is worth, the more accurate measure of average velocity for the example you gave below is the harmonic mean (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmonic_mean) of the first 4f speed and the last 2f speed:
HARMEAN(2640/45,1320/26) = 54.43.

Best wishes,

John

[Tom]

Neither of which the horse actually ran.

[DJofSD]

Neither of which the horse actually ran.

Sure it did. At some point during the race the horse's actual instantaneous velocity was 50 ft/sec or 54 ft/sec or some number between them. And from the perspective of physics the velocity at the specifc points of call can be either the instantaneous or some estimated average. Now, whether the velocity at the specific point of call is the same as the average is the interesting debate.

In calculus, you're dealing with l'Hopital's rule. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%27hospital) Before TRAKUS it was a pipe dream. With TRAKUS (or equivalent) all can be revealed.

[Robert Fischer]

Sure it did. At some point during the race the horse's actual instantaneous velocity was 50 ft/sec or 54 ft/sec or some number between them. And from the perspective of physics the velocity at the specifc points of call can be either the instantaneous or some estimated average. Now, whether the velocity at the specific point of call is the same as the average is the interesting debate.

In calculus, you're dealing with l'Hopital's rule. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%27hospital) Before TRAKUS it was a pipe dream. With TRAKUS (or equivalent) all can be revealed.




if u really want to get technical...

1. What distances are the "Gallop" portion and the "Kick" portion of the race? (is determined from video replay from several races for this class preferably same group of horses.)

2. Where will each horse be when the "Kick" portion starts?(measured in feet - converted from lengths)

3. Does each horse have a strong enough kick to win from their expected position?

So todays race is 9furlongs turf. This class of horses is going to start kicking the last 4 furlongs. Thus 5 furlong Gallop vs. 4 furlong Kick. Today's expected pace should be somewhere between 58 and 61 seconds for the Gallop portion of the race. Horse A should be on the lead by about 16feet (2lengths). Horse A's best closing 4 furlongs in the last 3 races is 53.62 ft/s. Horse A's average of best 2outof last 3 closing 4furlongs is 53.11 ft/s.
Horse B should be 40feet off the lead. horse B.... etc... etc..

"velocity machine"

it isn't easy in practice with horses varying trainers/surfaces/tracks/distances/class/pace scenarios etc..

[Tom]

DJ, alright, the horse never ran it at any point of the race that would be of any value to know. :D

The question originally asked is ambiguous - the horse ran different velocities for different segments, and on overall for the distance.

Robert - since horse decelerate, the "kick" portion would be the early part and the "gallop" portion the last quarter.:rolleyes:

[DJofSD]

DJ, alright, the horse never ran it at any point of the race that would be of any value to know.

I know what you mean. Sorry, I just couldn't resist bustin' your chops just a little. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

Robert - since horse decelerate, the "kick" portion would be the early part and the "gallop" portion the last quarter.:rolleyes:

Tom

if semantics is the limiting factor, use "sprint" instead of gallop for your terminology. Use whatever words you like. The point at which the quality starts to run hard is the "kick" portion. If it is a 5 furlong dirt race the kick portion is the entire race.


I wouldn't type cast all races so eagerly.
Last Weekend's Feature
Belmont's 500k Man O' War Stakes 11f Grade I
gallop portion6f: 54ft/s kick portion5f: 56ft/s :bang:

[michiken]

HARMEAN(2640/45,1320/26) = 54.43.John Thanks for the lesson on harmonic mean. I have to think back to high school or college (I slept thru that class) to remember!

I brought up the question because there are two ways to view velocities - static and dynamic via internal fractions. I have always preferred and accel/decel point of view.

Ken

[jfdinneen]

Ken,

I agree with you that the dynamic interpretation (acceleration / deceleration) of speed provides greater insights than the alternate static viewpoint.

Also, you may wish to review the Acceleration Index (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=17723) thread for some ideas on how to use the internal fractions to do some of the following:
* identify running styles
* show tactical speed moves
* index late acceleration on artificial / turf surfaces

Best wishes,

John

[46zilzal]

on the grass, third fraction horses rule
on dirt they close after the finish line