Churchill Stock drip drip drip

[ponypro]

sits at 200 day moving average with 30 something RSI. With Nyra out and FRANKY officially culling assetts Churchill looks more like an ISLAND than a big time consolidator. Having alienated scores of industry people Bob Evans will be under big time heat at Shareholders meeting. A 6 month stock target in the upper 30's will be more important than any boycott imaginable. There is no growth in his model. The shareholders will begin to rumble. EVANS out in less than a year. 6-5 ODDS

[betovernetcapper]

I hadn't thought about this until about 10 days ago a player on another board announced he was dumping his CHDN stock. Since then I've been exploring the stock and I can't really see it going anywhere but down.

[ceejay]

There is no growth in his model. Imagine that, a business model that says "we'll make it more difficult for our customers to spend money" has no growth. Shocking!

[NoCal Boy]

Possible developments in California this coming week on ADW legislation might just put this entire TVG-TrackNet fiasco to bed. The California state senate amended a very popular bill that passed the Assembly 74-1 with legislation that effectively puts exclusivity to bed unless the California horsemen explicity approve the ADW contract (which they will almost assuredly not). It also extends the authorization for ADW indefinitely. We will see if it gets approved this coming last week of the session, but the time has past for amendments as of last night. Hard to see why it would not pass as why would anyone vote against it? The industry has been at loggerheads with TVG for months and finally got the ADW amendments on the last day to do so yesterday.

Don't know about Churchill stock, but if this passes the stock of Youbet could move up in a hurry from $1.70 as Youbet makes virtually nothing right now on California content. On Thursday of this week Champion stated to Wall Street analysts that he hoped to have all the content back by the start of the year and that the TVG model would be changing, among others. This was on Thursday and surprise, surprise, the Bill that largely accomplishes this, or at least will be the impetus for it, was amended on Friday.

Nothing is a given in politics so we will see what transpires. But if California enacts a mahor ADW Bill that effectively eliminates wagering exclusivity, each of TVG and TrackNet need to change their models with operations like PTC, Youbet and others being the beneficiaries of open wagering access.

Here are the links:

http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/07-08/bill/asm/ab_0751-0800/ab_765_bill_20070907_amended_sen_v94.html


http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/07-08/bill/asm/ab_0751-0800/ab_765_cfa_20070907_135600_sen_floor.html

[Zaf]

Imagine that, a business model that says "we'll make it more difficult for our customers to spend money" has no growth. Shocking!

:lol:

[betovernetcapper]

NoCal Boy-that is great news.

[BillW]

Imagine that, a business model that says "we'll make it more difficult for our customers to spend money" has no growth. Shocking!

I once worked for a company that tried to make up for a negative margin with volume. :eek:

[NoCal Boy]

It would be great news. Hopefully it will pass this coming week.

[trigger]

Don't know about Churchill stock, but if this passes the stock of Youbet could move up in a hurry from $1.70 as Youbet makes virtually nothing right now on California content. On Thursday of this week Champion stated to Wall Street analysts that he hoped to have all the content back by the start of the year and that the TVG model would be changing, among others. This was on Thursday and surprise, surprise, the Bill that largely accomplishes this, or at least will be the impetus for it, was amended on Friday.

Nothing is a given in politics so we will see what transpires. But if California enacts a mahor ADW Bill that effectively eliminates wagering exclusivity, each of TVG and TrackNet need to change their models with operations like PTC, Youbet and others being the beneficiaries of open wagering access.



NCB, Man, it appears you just can't resist being a perpertual public enthusiast about Youbet stock even though it's been on a downward spiral for a long time. I wish you luck though in this stock.
Anyway, lets hope the ADW situation works out for the best for all .
Trigger

[Indulto]

... Nothing is a given in politics so we will see what transpires. But if California enacts a mahor ADW Bill that effectively eliminates wagering exclusivity, each of TVG and TrackNet need to change their models with operations like PTC, Youbet and others being the beneficiaries of open wagering access.

Here are the links:

http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/07-08/bill/asm/ab_0751-0800/ab_765_bill_20070907_amended_sen_v94.html

http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/07-08/bill/asm/ab_0751-0800/ab_765_cfa_20070907_135600_sen_floor.html
NCB,
Thanks for the links. I find it difficult to decipher the text, but my understanding is that 1) exclusivity is still possible if the tracks and horsemen agree to it, and 2) there's nothing that would a) prevent the TOC from continuing to shut PTC or any other startups out, or b) compel any track to contract with an ADW even if it is licensed and contracted with other tracks in the state.

[NoCal Boy]

The Bill is now in the Rules Committee for some reason as of this afternoon. No idea what exactly that means. My guess is since the date for amendments has passed, there might be another amendment added so it needs approval from the Rules Committee in the Senate. But only guessing.

I think you are correct that ultimately the TOC can wield a heavy stick in terms of licensees, but again no one knows how it will get implemented assuming it passes.

[rrbauer]

The Bill is now in the Rules Committee for some reason as of this afternoon. No idea what exactly that means. My guess is since the date for amendments has passed, there might be another amendment added so it needs approval from the Rules Committee in the Senate. But only guessing.

I think you are correct that ultimately the TOC can wield a heavy stick in terms of licensees, but again no one knows how it will get implemented assuming it passes.

The Rules Committee determines whether or not the bill goes to the floor. That committee is full of undertakers.......... :)

[NoCal Boy]

The interesting thing about the Bill is it is openly supported by TVG, XpressBet and youbet per the summary of the bill. Every Who's Who in the industry in CA is openly supporting it, but at the moment it appears to be caught up in the middle of Democrat and Republican in-fighting. Politics as usual.

Here is a list of verified supporters as of last night per the CA Legislative Portal:

SUPPORT : (Verified 9/10/07)

Alameda County Fair
Bay Meadows Race Course
California Authority of Racing Fairs
California Thoroughbred Breeders
California Thoroughbred Trainers
Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Golden Gate Fields
Hollywood Park
Jockeys Guild
Los Alamitos Race Course
Los Angeles County Fair Association
Oak Tree Racing Association
Pacific Coast Quarter Horse Racing Association
Santa Anita Park
Service Employees International Union
Solano County Fair
Teamsters
The Big Fresno Fair
Thoroughbred Owners of California
TVG
XpressBet
YouBet.com (http://youbet.com/)

[betovernetcapper]

NOCal Is there a kind of CA CSPAN-do you know who is trying to block it?

[NoCal Boy]

The Bill just passed the State Senate with over a 2/3 majority. On to the Assembly. My understanding is the Bill was held hostage to party politics (I do not believe having anything to do with the Bill or racing itself, but not sure of that part).

FWIW, the Assembly passed this Bill before it was amended with the ADW language by a 74-1 vote.

Hopefully passage comes out of the Assembly in the next day or so (not sure of the timing but this is the last week to pass Bills in CA).

The fact that TVG is also a listed supporter of the Bill seems significant. I can not recall when TVG was ever on the same side of anything with the other ADW's and the TOC, etc. on a major piece of legislation.

The industry still needs the Assembly to come through for the Bill. Again, a 2/3 vote is required.

[NoCal Boy]

go to calchannel.com

[Indulto]

The interesting thing about the Bill is it is openly supported by TVG, XpressBet and youbet per the summary of the bill. Every Who's Who in the industry in CA is openly supporting it, but at the moment it appears to be caught up in the middle of Democrat and Republican in-fighting. Politics as usual.

Here is a list of verified supporters as of last night per the CA Legislative Portal:

SUPPORT : (Verified 9/10/07)
What about
OPPOSITION: ;)

BTW, NCB, your continuous input is greatly appreciated. I have the Senate in the background as I write this. :ThmbUp:

[NoCal Boy]

No opposition is listed in the Bill. It appears the Bill has widespread support in the racing industry and the local labor unions.

Keep in mind the ADW legislation is onlya part of the Bill. The other part deals with givingthe fairs an additional 1% takeout on wagers to fund improvemets, etc. This was the original part of the Bill that passed the Assembly 75-1.

News of this Bill passing will spread like wildfire through the industry because it will be landmark ADW legislation giving horsemen specific consent authority over in state tracks and some rights as to out of state tracks.

But it first needs to pass the Assembly by the required 2/3. This is why everyone is so quiet. Politics caused the Bill to initially fail last night in the Senate, but then it passed this morning. No idea as to how the Assembly stands with it. The Bill itself should be non-controversial as it seems the industry has unified behind it, but politics can come into play as it is a Bill that requires some support from both sides if it will garner the required 2/3. Thus it can be manipulated a bit.

[NoCal Boy]

I think the Senate is done with this Bill. It is now the Assembly that has to vote on it. There is an Assembly channel link as well. Noidea as to the timing on the Bill as it was not on the Daily Calendar. I am out of pocket for most of the rest of the day.

[NoCal Boy]

CA ADW Bill passed the Assembly early this morning and now goes to Governor Arnold. The bill will almost assuredly not be vetoed. It already passed with over 2/3 majority required. It takes effect on 1/1/08.

As someone very influential in the industry informed me this morning, while much remains to be done the Bill establishes a rational framework to structure business deals that make sense for all.

This should now be the start of some serious movement toward resolving the TVG-TrackNet mess. Other horsemens groups will look to see what CA accomplished, with TVG's and all involved in the industry support, and realize why not in their state as well.

[NoCal Boy]

For those who care to look at the Bill, it is AB 765