Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The ratings fot the Man O War at BEL this saturday are available as this weeks ROTW.

Good Luck.

John

www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[Robert Fischer]

good race

[john del riccio]

Very interesting race.

DOCTOR DINO ran well in his US Debut despite a rough trip but loses the jock
that rode him in his last two to YELLOWSTONE. His replacement jock had won 3 races in a row in France. He hasn't won past 1 3/16 miles but has won carrying 126 and shows 2 works over the BEL turf course.

SUNRIVER either didn't like the turf at AP which had some give in it or Gomez outsmarted himself by not taking advantage of his natural speed and letting the field remain tighly packed through very slow fractions. He is 2-2 at BEL on the turf but he has not won with more than 120 lbs and also earned a better figure at 1 1/8 than he did at 1 3/8 (albeit just one length).

GRAND COUTURIER got a perfect trip last out and ran a superior figure. However, that was at SAR (and as Fats will tell you, its a different set of grass courses as opposed to BEL) he picks up 9 lbs of his last win but did win with 128 lb on two separate occasions in France.

TRIPPI's STORM showed he loved the BEL turf course winning in his first try over it but didn't follow that up with an equally strong effort when racing over the BEL turf when it was rated good. He then gave SUN RIVER a run for his money improving his figure while being dismissed at 11-1. In the G-I Sword Dancer at SAR he dramatically improved his pace figure but weakened in the last 1/8 mile. Note that he was only 3/4's of a length behind at the 1/8 pole which equates to 1 3/8 mi; the diatance of todays race. Extrapolating his variant figure at that point of the race gives him an 81 (76 + 5). He removes the blinkers today but must pick up 12 lbs.

SHAMDINAN made his US debut a winning won despite a poor break. He is a 3yo and is facing older horses today and does get a 5lb break in the weights. Before his last start he showed a token breeze over AP's Polytrack but for todays race they shipped him to DMR for two breezes over that Polytack and now ships back top the east coast. That travelin may be his undoing.

MARSH SIDE ran th erace of his life last out at WO but that race is no better than any other horse entered today so he seems up against it.


The pace of this race is unlikely to be very slow. DOCTOR DINO, SUN RIVER, GRAND COUTURIER all show 76-77 pace ratings, and TRIPPI's STORM shows a 79 pace ratings in his last start but with the blinkers being removed, Hough is certainly attempting to get him to relax early.

The three horses with the best ratings at the distance are (in PP order)

SUN RIVER 81
GRAND COUTURIER 82
TRIPPI's STORM 81 (extrapolated)

Each has questions that need answering. Is SUN RIVER better going shorter ?
Did GRAND COUTURIER freak over the SAR turf course as a result of a perfect trip ? Can TRIPPI's STORM pick up 12 lbs and run his figure ?


TRIPPI's STORM 5-1
GRAND COURTURIER 3-1
SUN RIVER 7-2

Good Luck.

John

[Robert Fischer]

tough race

I am leaning towards Dino,yellowstone,GRandC,Shamdinan in the win slot.

Sunriver moves forward on this turf, but I think he will be beat.

[Tom]

Thanks, John.:ThmbUp:

[point given]

So, which euros want it firm ? instead of the off turf in europe ? don't forget lasik !

Dr. Dino - no juice ! jockey off, never seems to quite finish

Sunriver - pace of race, w/ B off on Trippi's Storm, he should be crawling early,

Shamdinan - 3 vs older @ 121 lbs , will firm suit him, will he have too much to do late ? too much shipping ? as john said ?
,
yellowstone - 3 vs older , firm ? murtagh sticks, 1st juice , lost by 3L to notnowcato,authorized,george washington no slouches there, but has alot of races for a euro & never really impressed vs lesser

Best Guess - Sunriver , will take them as far as he goes
Shamdinan, have a feeling he's a comer, lightly raced

[the_fat_man]

Very interesting race.

TRIPPI's STORM showed he loved the BEL turf course winning in his first try over it but didn't follow that up with an equally strong effort when racing over the BEL turf when it was rated good. He then gave SUN RIVER a run for his money improving his figure while being dismissed at 11-1. In the G-I Sword Dancer at SAR he dramatically improved his pace figure but weakened in the last 1/8 mile. Note that he was only 3/4's of a length behind at the 1/8 pole which equates to 1 3/8 mi; the diatance of todays race. Extrapolating his variant figure at that point of the race gives him an 81 (76 + 5). He removes the blinkers today but must pick up 12 lbs.



The pace of this race is unlikely to be very slow. DOCTOR DINO, SUN RIVER, GRAND COUTURIER all show 76-77 pace ratings, and TRIPPI's STORM shows a 79 pace ratings in his last start but with the blinkers being removed, Hough is certainly attempting to get him to relax early.

Each has questions that need answering. Is SUN RIVER better going shorter ?
Did GRAND COUTURIER freak over the SAR turf course as a result of a perfect trip ? Can TRIPPI's STORM pick up 12 lbs and run his figure ?


TRIPPI's STORM 5-1
GRAND COURTURIER 3-1
SUN RIVER 7-2

Good Luck.

John

Trippi's Storm is the perfect example of how to GROSSLY MISMANAGE a GOOD horse. Hough has cost his owner at least a Grade II and a Grade I win and over $400k by his ineptness in handling this horse.

Let's start back in 5/26 at Bel, where Trippi is loafing along at the back of the pack and kicks like a monster late, gaining 3 lengths in a 11.31 last 1/8th to win going away. This after appearing completely disinterested until they turned for home. Conclusion: he can kick with anyone.

Then, Gomez gets on the horse and decides to put him on the lead and gets him beat going 1 1/4.

By the time Castellano gets back on for the Bowling Green, Trippi has 'developed' some bad habits (thanks to Mr Gomez) and rather than being content loafing along at the rear of the pack, he's pulling on the reins and is much too close to Sunriver. Nonetheless, he still puts in a very strong run in the stretch. So strong, in fact, that it's evident if he were rated (had relaxed) early, he'd have won for fun.

But the comedy of errors continues. Hough, his head DEEP up his ass, has yet to realize that this horse's best running comes from the rear (like the Euro's) and DRILLS the horse 46.4 HANDILY on 7/27 at SAR. WHY? :bang::bang: Is the horse a sprinter?

Trippi comes back for the Sword Dancer, where he's a STONE LOCK OTHERWISE, and it pulling on the reins, rank as a SOB in ridiculously fast fractions. In fact, if memory serves me correctly, the quarter for the Sword Dancer was faster than the quarter of the next race, a turf sprint. But even after being much too close, TRIPPI makes a valiant run on the turn to take the lead and gets run down by the gutless SUCKUP Grand Couturier.

FINALLY, the light goes on in Hough's head and he's realized that Trippi needs to RELAX and he takes the blinkers off. Thanks Stanley.

Just in case anyone thinks I'm being too rough on Hough or that Hough is poor horseman consider that Mott is guilt of essentially the same thing in the case of Sharp Susan. The replays of her 2 races previous to the Lake George would show an extremely rank horse involved in a BRAWL with her jock. Mott took the blinkers off (and put a less headstrong jock up) for the Lake George and anyone noticing (like me) got skunked with a wide trip (and a suckup trip by Rutherienne) in what should have been a winning effort.

I wouldn't touch Trippi at 5:1, however.

There's no reason he should be anything better than 5 (or 6th) choice in the race and thus closer to 10:1.

[Robert Fischer]

Trippi's Storm is the perfect example of how to GROSSLY MISMANAGE a GOOD horse. Hough has cost his owner at least a Grade II and a Grade I win and over $400k by his ineptness in handling this horse.



absolutely correct.

One thing I hate to see, and it is generally a sign of a cheap horse - is that as the rises in class - he becomes more of a pace animal.
Trippi didn't have to be that way. There is something to be said about developing form in a horse.

I am passing this race, but I think that the bet is Dino,yellowstone,GRandC,Shamdinan with All in the exacta($24). Sunriver has a chance due to the possibility of a slow pace, but I think the best he gets is second, and he should be a big Underlay as the triple crown fan favorite. Kent Desormeaux has the only horse I am really worried about spoiling my exacta.
I think Trippi is up against it here, this is his opportunity to prove he belongs in this class. Maybe Hough should have regrouped.

[Robert Fischer]

Dino over Sunriver by a head. Only $31 for the exacta with Sunriver second. No one else challenged.


Looked like Peslier thought he absolutely had a ton of horse in Doctor Dino, riding high and without urgency going into the final turn.
Gomez had first action with Sunriver, Sunriver gave a huge response and ran a big race- it took an all out effort for Dino to run him down.

[point given]

Dino over Sunriver by a head. Only $31 for the exacta with Sunriver second. No one else challenged.


Looked like Peslier thought he absolutely had a ton of horse in Doctor Dino, riding high and without urgency going into the final turn.
Gomez had first action with Sunriver, Sunriver gave a huge response and ran a big race- it took an all out effort for Dino to run him down.

yes - even after the obrien horse had tried to go with sunriver from the gate to final turn until packing it in. Dino had the dream trip , while Sunriver did all the work and just missed lasting. Must be a euro conspiracy, Murtagh goes to the obrien horse and wastes himself while Peslier jumps on Dino and rates behind them.

[point given]

yes - even after the obrien horse had tried to go with sunriver from the gate to final turn until packing it in. Dino had the dream trip , while Sunriver did all the work and just missed lasting. Must be a euro conspiracy, Murtagh goes to the obrien horse and wastes himself while Peslier jumps on Dino and rates behind them.

Too late to edit my post , but the Bloodhorse artilce on the race had this to describe the race -

" Sunriver, who won the Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont on July 15, was a tough-luck loser. “Johnny (Murtagh) tried to quicken the pace at the five-eighths pole,” Gomez said. “When I asked my horse to make his move and put his body into it, he did. He is a really nice horse. He pretty much had to sprint five-eighths of a mile.”

Then the articles author entitles it, "Dr Dino Outlasts Sunriver" ?? How could he "outlast" Sunriver , when he just got up ? It would have been Sunriver outlasting Dino if he had held on !

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=40700

[DanG]

yes - even after the obrien horse had tried to go with sunriver from the gate to final turn until packing it in. Dino had the dream trip , while Sunriver did all the work and just missed lasting.
Excellent point PG and also highlights the amazing 9yo the “Tin Man” who out kicked Sunriver on the square at Arlington. :ThmbUp: