PDA

View Full Version : Pik-4 best Tracks payoffs


vicktor
09-02-2007, 11:33 AM
Hi all, I'm new here, but not to horse racing plays.
Just a quick question, hope it's not silly. What tracks pay the highest Pik-4 payoffs. If I'm gonna play exotics, I might as well try for the highest wins.

colonial
09-02-2007, 02:09 PM
Hi all, I'm new here, but not to horse racing plays.
Just a quick question, hope it's not silly. What tracks pay the highest Pik-4 payoffs. If I'm gonna play exotics, I might as well try for the highest wins.

ellis park had 4% take out can't get much better then that.

Hajck Hillstrom
09-02-2007, 04:26 PM
Hi all, I'm new here, but not to horse racing plays.
Just a quick question, hope it's not silly. What tracks pay the highest Pik-4 payoffs. If I'm gonna play exotics, I might as well try for the highest wins.Check the tracks with the biggest pools, largest fields, and the all weather surfaces don't hurt. Come October, Keeneland's 50cent Pik4's allow for multiple wagers.

I don't like to play Pik4's with less than 30 entries in the series, unless there is a very vulnerable odds on favorite that I can bet against.

Tracks I like to play the Pik4 at.....

Saratoga and Del Mar (although they played me this year)
Keeneland
Santa Anita and Hollywood Park
Belmont

Nothing wrong with the payouts at Turfway Park, and Ellis Park's 4% take should be utilized whenever possible.

Zman179
09-03-2007, 08:57 AM
I find that the small tracks often have the better pick 4 payoffs because there isn't as much smart money in the pools. One favorite that is out of the sequence can skyrocket the payoffs.

Not only do you have a chance at catching an overlay payoff at a smaller track (minimum pool size should be no less than $5,000,) but you also have a chance at getting a 3 out of 4 consolation in the event that you just miss. At the large tracks it's that much harder to get an overlaid payoff unless you get two chalks out of the number, and a 3 of 4 payoff is a virtual impossibility.

formula_2002
09-03-2007, 12:09 PM
45.4 21.7 0.036407325
7.2 2.6 0.229568411
12.4 5.2 0.133297787
5.6 1.8 0.295159386
3041.021986

Pic 4 at Ellis for 9/2/2007. based on a 17.5 win pool take out. A fair pick four pay-out would have been $6083.
It paid $2125 for a $2 pick 4..

Marlin
09-03-2007, 01:31 PM
I find that the small tracks often have the better pick 4 payoffs because there isn't as much smart money in the pools. One favorite that is out of the sequence can skyrocket the payoffs.

Not only do you have a chance at catching an overlay payoff at a smaller track (minimum pool size should be no less than $5,000,) but you also have a chance at getting a 3 out of 4 consolation in the event that you just miss. At the large tracks it's that much harder to get an overlaid payoff unless you get two chalks out of the number, and a 3 of 4 payoff is a virtual impossibility.Sharp post. If you want to get the 20-1 home stay away. But if you are looking at second and third choices, the Pick 4 value kills the parlay price by as much as 300%.

formula_2002
09-05-2007, 04:08 PM
9/3/2007 elis pick 4 paid
$123.35...fair value was $218.53.

that's like a 44% "take-out" :)
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inr&country=USA&track=ELP&date=2007-09-03#R11

formula_2002
09-05-2007, 04:15 PM
this Saratoga 5th race pick 4 paying $49,861 for a $2 bet was like a 9% take-out. Hey, it beats the lottery!!

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inr&country=USA&track=SAR&date=2007-09-03

formula_2002
09-05-2007, 04:41 PM
back-up for previous post GLOBAL WINNING PICKS, PICK 4 INTER-ACTIVE TABLE.
COMPARE YOUR WIN POOL EDGE TO YOUR PICK FOUR EDGE

leg 1 leg 2 leg 3 leg 4 leg 1 leg 2 leg 3 leg 4 $1.00 pay off $1.00 pay off PIC 4 WIN POOL edge
odds odds odds odds % % % % fair value pic 4 mutual EDGE -.15
3.20 19.00 9.80 14.70 0.20 0.04 0.08 0.05 27285.19 24840.00 -0.09 0.85

ENTER VALUES IN YELLOW BOXES ONLY


fair value = the sum of multiplying legs 1,2,3 and 4 values of , 1/((odds+1)*(1+edge)). (THIS IS YOUR FAIR VALUE.)
edge= your average win pool % profit / 100

PIC 4 % GAIN, %LOSS = (COL J - COL I) /COL I