Question On Times In NY

[jotb]

Hello All:


I was wondering if someone on this forum is familiar with the NY racing circuit regarding times at a different distance and surface. I have a few questions:

1- Does anybody know from their experiences with 9F races at Aqueduct on the INNER TRACK, how many feet is the run to the first turn?

2- At Belmont a 9F race is for 1 turn but can someone tell me how many feet until the turn?

3- From the data that I have collected on races run in NY, I have come to the conclusion that the Aqueduct INNER DIRT Track is several lengths slower than Aqu main, Bel main and Sar main for all distances except the first quarter mile in a 9F race. I was wondering why this had transpired. Every internal point of call on average is slower on the inner dirt except for races that are run at 9.0 vs 9.0 races at Belmont. Could it be possible that the run to the first turn for both racetracks are equal in feet or could this be due to wind? In the winter on the inner dirt races that are at 9.0F have a strong tailwind running into that first turn.

4- Another conclusion that I came to was, that on the inner dirt races run at 8.0, 8.3, 8.5 and 9.0 the first 1/4 mile was progressively faster per average the longer the distance. Could this be the result of wind or could this be because the horses that have a longer run to the 1st turn are in full flight whereas races that start on the turn like 8.0F have horses that are still not in full stride?

Best regards,
Joe

[Suff]

Joe... I'll have the information for you tommorrow.. I have it here somewhere.... I'll post it.. or send you an e-mail

[Suff]

Joe:

On the Inner track, going a Mile and an 1/8th , the distance to the first turn is exactly 994 feet.

On the Belmont main , going the same distance , its 2029 feet to the first turn.

To calculate for various distances.. an1/8th is 660 feet. So on the Aqueduct inner.. its a mere 334 feet to the turn when going a mile.

[jotb]

Hello Suff:

Thanks for the info.

Best regards,
Joe

[karlskorner]

Now that you know the "exact" distance, all that's left to do is figure out how far back from the "light" the gate is set each time they run. Varies.

[keilan]

Karl do you know??

[Tom]

They just put it whre they think it goes. They will move it around race to race. Watching replays from Fl on TV, I see the gate vary a LOT on 1m70 races - there is a rail pole right where the gate usually goes, but some races, it is way up the track from there, almost to the point for a 1m16th. They will tell you that it is a set distance, but if you watch the replays or look in person, it varies greatly.

[karlskorner]

Do I know ???

Better than most, I think. The down poles from the rail are apporoximately 10' apart, with a good set of binoculars all you have to do is count. Sometimes the gate is 30' and sometimes it's over a 100' from the light. Adds to the "4 corners" of the puzzle.

[keilan]

Tom--if that is true and I have no reason not to believe you it only emphasises the total disregard management have for the Horseplayer. There are potentially two different scenarios that exist 1) The horse's are constantly at different points of acceleration when they hit the beam. and or 2) The races are not always the actual distance indicated in the Racing Form. No wonder this game is such a tough nut to crack. It's amazing that some are able to hold their own.

Karl - For most of us we play different tracks either from home or at the nearest OBT and binoculars don't serve any useful purpose there.

On another note -- Would you be interested in participating in a P4 fun contest if it was scheduled at your home track or somewhere else. These are a lot of fun, good guys, and builds some friendships along the way.

Happy New Year!!!

[karlskorner]

Ask yourself the following question:

How honest was the 21.1 quarter time set by a horse ?

If the gate was set exactly at the start light, and a horse from "dead start" ran the first 1/4 in 21.1, thats one fast horse, BUT if the gate was set back 100+ feet from the start light, by the time he broke the light he is at " full speed " and ran 21.1, that's not a fast horse. If last week, he ran the 1/4 in 22.2, and yesterday he ran the "same distance" 1/4 in 21.3, where was the gate in both starts ? Extend this same thought to the 1/2 mile time. Sort of puts a question into pace handicapping. If you knew the answer you would be way ahead of the crowd. That's why the "sheets" and others handtime from the gate.

[jotb]

Hello Karl:


"Now that you know the "exact" distance, all that's left to do is figure out how far back from the "light" the gate is set each time they run. Varies".

I must have been on the right track when I said earlier that 1st quarter times(routes) at Aqueduct on the inner dirt was slighty faster the longer the distance. The factors contributing to this phenom might be the distance to the first turn, wind, or "the light".

I found it quite interesting when I noticed that Aqueduct and Belmonts main track races run at 8.0,8.5, and 9.0(only at Belmont) averaged the same first 1/4 mile as the 9.0 on the inner. You would think the Inner would be slightly slower on average considering that it's a 2 turn race.

Matching the 9.0 at Saratoga and Aqueducts main track vs the inner track at 9.0(all at 2 turns) has the inner almost 2 lengths faster on average the 1st quarter mile. Why does this occur? Overall the inner dirt plays mush slower than the other NY surfaces except for the above. Aqueduct main, Belmont ,and Saratoga in sprints at basically equal overall in terms of final times but the inner track is about 5 lengths slower overall. Most will conclude that this happens because the horses in the winter are not as good but I have doubts about that. Don't get me wrong, the races in the spring and summer carry "tougher horses" but I still believe that the inner track is a slower surface overall. Year's ago most horses would be "turned out" after the winter but because of the high cost to maintain the thoroughbred many of these horses are running straight through the whole year. If you look at the horses pp's that have run on the inner dirt in the winter and compare these same horses that run in the summer, you will notice that final times are faster in the summer than in the winter(as much as 7 lengths). Are these horse improving dramatically in terms of speed over a couple of months?

Regardless, I appreciate the help and will continue this draining project and hopefully one day will make some kind of sense with all of this in terms of figures. For now it's back to the drawing board.

Regards,
Joe

[Suff]

Joe... quick question... am I reading your post right that Aqd. inner is two lengths faster in the first quarter, but 5 lengths slower from the 1/4 pole to the finish line? And if in fact there were no distinguishable differences in the first 1/4 times between either track.... Aqueduct inner would be 7-9 lengths slower than the Belmont main track when going equal distances?

And,,, if your not too busy and you want a live volunteer.. Could you apply your theory to the 8th race winner on Wed. Jan 01.. the 6 horse... he had run over the Sar and Belmont main.. and I tossed his Saratoga efforts and used him based on his INNER performances..You think your idea mighta Brought this horse out to you? I did'nt see if you played him or not?

[jotb]

Hello Suff:

Yes, the inner track on average is about 5 lengths slower in final times for sprint races compared to Sar, Bel and Aqu. I'm sure there are people that would feel differently about this but I feel confident that this is accurate. Prior to my investigating 1000's of races in NY, I would have thought the difference on average would have been less.

As far as the 9.0 races on the inner vs the 9.0 at Aqu main and 9.0 at Saratoga, the FIRST QUARTER MILE on average is faster on the inner vs the 2 other surfaces almost 2 full lengths.

However, the 9F races at Belmont the 1st quarter mile are faster on average a full length vs the inner track.

When you compare an 8.0F race on the main track the 1st quarter mile vs an 8.0F race on the inner you would see quite a difference in average for the first quarter. I guess because the 8.0F race on the main track is for 1 turn and the inner is for 2 turns.

I do not have the pp's for yesterday but I would like to see the last running line for the #6, so I can explain.

Best regards,
Joe

[Derek2U]

I have never ever said this before (not even to my fiancee) but
I would try the Pick4 even if on a non-NY track. (it would be
a 1st for me so lets get it going)

[keilan]

Derek -- it is never a good idea to keep anything from your bride-to-be. Now go tell her your inner most thoughts!!!

[Dave Schwartz]

JOTB,

Since you seem to have such a handle on NY racing, I'd like to ask for your help.

I am very hesitant to adjust track classes before obtaining outside information.

I am working on the HorseStreet 2003 Par Times and I am noticing a decline in AQU NW1 horses. That is, they are running poor times relative to the pars at NY, by at least a full tick slower, maybe more. Does that fit in with your findings?


Thanks for your help.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[jotb]

Hello Dave:

I like to be of some help but maybe you can fill me in with additionals details for the ALW 1X



1- Does this include both genders?


2- Is the decline for NY Breds or open company or both?

3- Is the decline for all distance or just for 6F?

4- Is the decline noticable on the inner or main track at Aqu?

5- How long has the decline been in terms of months?


Look forward to hearing from you shortly,
Best regards,
Joe

[Dave Schwartz]

Jotb,

Turns out my question is irrelevant. Seems I had transposed some digits. If anything, they are running a tick faster.

Thanks for your time.

Dave

[jotb]

Hello Dave:

A little info to chomp on:

Keep in mind that all of these averages for this condition, gender, age and restrictions is before the adjusted variant. We are only working off the raw times.

In 2001 on the Aqueduct Main track here are the following:

ALW N1X MALES OPEN COMPANY 110.22

ALW N1X FILLY OPEN COMPANY 110.54

ALW N1X MALES NEW YORK BREDS 110.67

ALW N1X FILLY NEW YORK BREDS 111.90

In 2001 on the Inner Dirt Track here are the following:

ALW N1X MALES OPEN COMPANY 111.11

ALW N1X FILLY OPEN COMPANY 111.55

ALW N1X MALES NEW YORK BREDS 111.56

ALW N1X FILLY NEW YORK BREDS 112.08

In 2002 on the Aqueduct Main Track here are the following:

ALW N1X MALES OPEN COMPANY 110.35

ALW N1X FILLY OPEN COMPANY 110.99

ALW N1X MALES NEW YORK BREDS 110.77

ALW N1X FILLY NEW YORK BREDS 111.93

In 2002 on the Inner Dirt Track here are the following:

ALW N1X MALES OPEN COMPANY 111.51

ALW N1X FILLY OPEN COMPANY 111.71

ALW N1X MALES NEW YORK BREDS 111.96

ALW N1X FILLY NEW YORK BREDS 112.26

Hope this helps. If you need additional info please feel free to contact me at home or on the forum.

Best regards,
Joe

[jotb]

Hello Dave:

I just saw the above post after I posted my reply. Anyway, I'm happy that you found the mistake and have moved on. Talk to you soon buddy.

Best regards,
Joe