PRIME POWER UPDATE

[JustMissed]

Bill W., Handle, hdcper & others:

You guys were right on about the BRIS Prime Power.

I just got back from Tampa Bay Downs. Seven winners of the ten races came from the top three Prime Power ratings and four of those seven winners were rated #1 rated Prime Power.

The best payoff was the 5th race which payed an $11 mutuel.

I only played win bets and did not play the exotics. It was the best win bet day I have had in a while. I did not deviate from prime power horses except for race 1 where I dutched an FTC with the first prime power horse. The FTC won and paid $14.60.

Thanks again for posting your comments about Prime Power.

JustMissed
:)

[BillW]

justMissed,

Great news. I think the negatives were well balanced with the positives in the comments you received. Continue to go slow and above all have fun.

Bill

[hdcper]

Just Missed,

I would like to suggest you do one more thing, check out Nathan's (Handle) program at thorotech.com. It has a full version demo which you can take a look at free. It utilizes the $1 Bris files and I think you will be impressed with all its features.

Should you like to discuss the features of the program once you download it, I would be glad to chat with you.

Hdcper

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by hdcper
Just Missed,

I would like to suggest you do one more thing, check out Nathan's (Handle) program at thorotech.com. It has a full version demo which you can take a look at free. It utilizes the $1 Bris files and I think you will be impressed with all its features.

Should you like to discuss the features of the program once you download it, I would be glad to chat with you.

Hdcper

Thanks for the info. I will definitely check out thorotech.com.

I have been getting the TSN Ultimate PP's w/ Quick Play Comments for $1.50. Of course they are hard copy and but have the track bias stats, race summary and quick play comments which have been real helpful to call attention to angles.

JustMissed
:)

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by hdcper
Just Missed,

I would like to suggest you do one more thing, check out Nathan's (Handle) program at thorotech.com. It has a full version demo which you can take a look at free. It utilizes the $1 Bris files and I think you will be impressed with all its features.

Should you like to discuss the features of the program once you download it, I would be glad to chat with you.

Hdcper

Hdcper, Thanks for the heads up. Very neat site. I saw a lot of familiar handles at the board. When I get through with an equipment upgrade I'll take a look at the software program.

Happy New Year to You,

JustMissed
:)

[Marc At DRF]

JustMissed wrote:

>You guys were right on about the BRIS Prime Power.

Really? The example you cite from Tampa, and the tone in which the citing is being done, seems to imply a given speed figure can be a road to riches. As someone who works at DRF, I thought I'd compare the results from Tampa on 12/27 using Beyer Speed Figures, specifically the "Best Career Beyer Number" found in the career box at the top of every PP.

>Seven winners of the ten races came from the top three Prime Power ratings

Seven winners of the ten races fun on 12/27 came from the top 3 Best Career Beyer Numbers for those races...

>and four of those seven winners were rated #1 rated Prime Power.

And 5 of those 7 winners were rated #1 Best Career Beyer in the race...

>The best payoff was the 5th race which payed an $11 mutuel.

The best payoff was the third race, which paid a $12.20 mutuel.
Sure sounds easy-- I think we should all quit our day jobs and employ this methodology, as I am certain we'll be retiring to our own Caribbean island in no time.

Good luck to all horseplayers who think blindly playing speed figures-- of any sort, including DRF's-- is the road to riches. See you at the windows!

[JustMissed]

MARC, Where the heck did all that come from? If you read my original post regarding Prime Power you would recall this caveat:

PARTIAL QUOTE "I am thinking for Saturday at Tampa of using the TSN power ratings to get my contenders, then using race shape, track bias, TSN race and class rating and speed rating to get my picks.

I may even dutch the final two horses, if close in power rating. The last time I placed win bets on my two best horses(Calder) I actually did pretty good.

Any suggestions will be appreciated."END QUOTE

No where did I ever say I would blindly bet a horse based solely on speed figs or anyones else figures of any kind or ever mentiion "road to riches".

Furthermore, I also posted that I won with a FTS that had no Power Rating and that I won a race because I passed a number one prime power horse which failed the paddock test(ala Joe
Takach).

How dare you talk down to me like that when you haven't even followed the tread.

I don't know what crawled up you butt but your post does not reflect well for your employer.

JustMissed
:mad:

[Marc At DRF]

Sorry if I came off as rude, but the data provided by you backing up the Prime Power ratings is the type of data that could be provided to back up any speed figure in the world, regardless of quality. IMO, it's meaningless.

[Doug]

MARC,

Off the prime power thing for a minute, could you give a brief explanation on how the handicappers at drf make their selections.
Are they tracked in any way shape or form.

Thanks

Doug

[formula_2002]

Now I know how that duck feels!
If you cannot read this, send me an e-mail and i'll send the report to you in an excel file format.
GLOBAL WINNING PICKS

12/28/2002 # RATIO OF
BRIS RACES AVE ODDS W/E
POWER WNET PNET SNET DBT W E ODDS WIN % PROFIT %

0 $(1,342) $(2,004) $(2,109) 6886 632 748 19.81 0.09 -0.19 0.81

1 $(1,787) $(1,319) $(1,193) 13106 4064 4717 2.47 0.31 -0.14 0.87

2 $(1,419) $(1,738) $(1,616) 12940 2687 3111 4.44 0.21 -0.11 0.89

3 $(1,347) $(1,846) $(1,727) 12870 2008 2324 6.58 0.16 -0.1 0.9

4 $(2,759) $(2,585) $(2,325) 12729 1369 1755 9.58 0.11 -0.22 0.79

5 $(2,886) $(3,201) $(2,715) 12441 998 1310 13.77 0.08 -0.23 0.77

6 $(3,377) $(3,641) $(3,636) 11355 673 914 18.97 0.06 -0.3 0.71

7 $(4,000) $(3,141) $(3,387) 8854 355 551 25.36 0.04 -0.45 0.55

8 $(1,460) $(2,225) $(2,384) 5969 224 300 32.24 0.04 -0.24 0.76

9 $(1,368) $(1,668) $(1,701) 3603 104 153 38.88 0.03 -0.38 0.62

10 $(637) $(774) $(984) 2005 47 68 46.03 0.02 -0.32 0.72

11 $(441) $(332) $(271) 877 13 27 53.76 0.01 -0.5 0.5

12 $(34) $(92) $(185) 375 7 10 59.46 0.02 -0.09 0.91

13 $(32) $(14) $(27) 32 0 1 57.11 0 -1 0

14 $26 $15 $(2) 6 1 0 70.05 0.17 4.35 5.35

15 $(2) $(2) $(2) 2 0 0 63 0 -1 0

16 $(2) $(2) $(2) 2 0 0 40.68 0 -1 0
$(22,866) $(24,569) $(24,265) 104052 13182 15990 0.13 -0.22 0.78

BRIS AVE ODDS
POWER WNET PNET SNET DBT W E ODDS WIN % PROFIT % A/E

http://globalwinningpicks.homestead.com/GLOBALWINNINGPICKSX.html

[formula_2002]

BRIS PRIME POWER - FREE REPORT
I will send a report indicating ;
the wps $ nets
average odds
# winners
# of expected winners
% profit
A/E RATIO (ACTUAL WINNER/EXPECTED WINNERS)

all sorted by PP ranking to any guest or member by return
e-mail.

The above report covers over 100,000 horses.

Regards
Joe M

http://globalwinningpicks.homestead.com/GLOBALWINNINGPICKSX.html

[JustMissed]

Never thought using Bris/TSN Prime Power Ratings as contender selection would be so controversial.

There are so many board members that take their valuable time to contribute to this board it really pains me that some take advantage of the privilege to post here.

Doug, I will post the Tampa Bay Downs Bris/TSN Prime Power results for this week and trust you will post the results from your service for comparison results.

For those who are offended by the use of Bris/TSN Prime Power ratings , I promise I will not force or compel you to use them for your contender list and swear and affirm I will not force you to place a bet on any horse with a high PP rating.

Thanks,

JustMissed
;)

[Doug]

Just Missed,

Yeah, pretty strange.

Yes I will post Tampa Bay stuff for tues, after I get all the results.

Doug

[Fastracehorse]

Best pay-off only $11??

That IZZZZ a - ROI.

OK,

Have fun with the gimmicks boyzzzzzzz.

fffastt

[Marc At DRF]

"Best pay-off only $11??

That IZZZZ a - ROI.

OK,

Have fun with the gimmicks boyzzzzzzz."


Wow, somebody else noticed too!

In all seriousness, apologies if the tone was snide on my part.

Look, believe it or not, I'm NOT really interested in "debunking" any type of speed figures. If you find a certain figure helpful, great. In fact, when I'm playing, I believe in including ground loss in the figures (controversial, to be sure), and have no problem paying for figures that make those calculations (very few do, and I think there's an edge, accordingly). But I see *sooooo* much dialogue (here and elsewhere) purporting that a given figure is better/best or worse/worst, and I think at some point this sort of mentality becomes dangerously close to encouraging the notion that a speed or performance figure is the handicapping "answer," pure and simple. I think JustMissed's post above (7 out of 10, etc) could easily be construed as such.

I appreciate the stat work done in the past comparing different figures, but I guess I don't even understand the point of tracking the results with one figure-- what's the possible $ upside? Garbage in/Garbage out? Are you really going to just start blindly betting a figure without exhaustively comparing it to everything else out there? IMO, that will *never work* in the long run.

As for the question on how our handicappers make their selections, they all have different strengths. There's no one answer to the question. And our main cappers at each track (Litfin, Free, Welsch, etc.) are tracked by top pick winners. If you want to start a seperate dialogue attacking public handicappers who need to make their picks two days before the races are run, I hope it's valuable for you.

[Doug]

MARC wrote,

As for the question on how our handicappers make their selections, they all have different strengths. There's no one answer to the question. And our main cappers at each track (Litfin, Free, Welsch, etc.) are tracked by top pick winners. If you want to start a seperate dialogue attacking public handicappers who need to make their picks two days before the races are run, I hope it's valuable for you.

Marc, I was not trying to attack the public handicappers.

What I was curious about was, do these guys (gals) actually sit and handicap each race (I figure the main guys do) and what they use to handicap with. Do they use computer resources,DRF, charts, etc?

Was thinking about maybe tracking them for possible use as a contender selection method. Just asked for a brief explanation about how they do this and you might be able to provide some insight.If you don't thats cool, but the answer "they each have their ownstrengths" leaves a lot to be desired.

Seems to me you are more interested in trying to belittle those of us that are trying to share information (good-bad-or otherwise).

I might suggest you get the knot out of your little panties and try to be a positive contributor as opposed to a negative jerk.

Doug

[Marc At DRF]

>Do they use computer resources,DRF, charts, etc?

all of the above, is my impression.

>Was thinking about maybe tracking them for possible use as a contender selection method.

I suspect you may be able to find that 7 out of ten winners are in the top three consensus picks, more days than not.

>but the answer "they each have their ownstrengths" leaves a lot to be desired.

I don't know what else to tell you in a general sense. I know some of them keep separate records, above and beyond stats we offer. Dan Illman's work always really impresses me in the "closer looks," as he keeps in-depth stats on trainer moves above and beyond what is publicly available... but not everyone works that way. They each have their own strengths, sorry if it sounds simplistic.

>Seems to me you are more interested in trying to belittle those of us that are trying to share information (good-bad-or otherwise).

Actually, I'm trying to provoke dialogue about whether the sort of information being offered was in any way truly valuable. IMO, it is possible that it is misguided. I'm curious to see if I'm the only one who feels that way.

I appreciate this board and have jumped in now and again over the last couple years. But if there's no room for skepticism, I'm certainly surprised. Perhaps I haven't been following this thread closely enough, but I was surprised by the overall lack of skepticism...

[Doug]

MARC

Thank you.

By the way, there is an interesting post on the HTR site about how opinionated horse players are and how different folkslook at different things.

Thanks again,

Doug

[Doug]

JUSTMISSED,

TAMPA BAY

1st #9 $4.20 2nd pick 2nd #10 $7.60 2nd pick

3rd #1 $17.40 out 4th #3 $ 6.20 top pick

5th #8 $$7.80 3rd pick 6th #6 $3.40 top pick

7th #7 $10.60 2nd pick 8th #5 $7.40 top pick

9th #3 $7.60 3rd pick 10th #8 $6.40 top pick

At Calder 9 out of 10 1st three picks.Race 2 the4th pick paid $38.00

At Lrl 8 out of 9 1st 3 picks.

At Philly 8 out of 10 1st 3 picks

Turfway 4 out of 12 top 3 picks (8th race $22.40). In the 6th race the 4th pick $27.80.

Doug

[Fastracehorse]

>In fact, when I'm playing, I believe in including ground loss in the figures (controversial, to be sure), and have no problem paying for figures that make those calculations (very few do, and I think there's an edge, accordingly).

Marc,

I am not saying every piece of data in DRF is useful to myself but I luv Beyers. They are very accurate in determining fairly, how quickly a horse went from point A to point B. But that is exactly the point: How did the horse get from point A to B?? I have discoverd a method of determining ground lost, and determining exactly how many Beyer points a horse needs to be given based on losing the ground he did. As U can imagine this leads to tremendous overlays. I'm actually sure U are already aware of this becuase U believe ground lost is important. How can this be controversial??

>and I think at some point this sort of mentality becomes dangerously close to encouraging the notion that a speed or performance figure is the handicapping "answer," pure and simple.

Marc,

To U're next statement I agree: Speed figs, like an adjd Beyer, cannot be used in a vaccum. While I beleive that the adjd Beyer is the most powerful handicapping tool at identifying winners, it is not a fool-proof method by any means. Adjusting Beyers is just the best method at finding overlays in my opinion. They work best however, if I can use them in conjuction with trainer intent. Moreover, the accuracy of adjd Beyers is such that it can encourage a player to close the door on other good methods of picking winners. So, I do not do this. I luv high speed fig horses with trainer intent but I also incorporate other handicapping methods religiously. In fact, I would win much less if I didn't.

Lastly with the adjd Beyer,

It has tremendous utility. I believe pace is innate in the Beyer. Hence, I can accurately give a fig to a horse that duelled early but finished poorly. Also, the adjd Beyer has taught me that for the most part, tb racing is universal. Hence, I can adjust for distance and surface switches. Routes are sometimes my easiest overlays.

>If you want to start a seperate dialogue attacking public handicappers who need to make their picks two days before the races are run, I hope it's valuable for you.

My favorite public handicapper is Gierkink at Woodbine. He has a chore.

Nice chatting with a guy from DRF.

fffastt

[Tom]

Beyer hinself wrote somewhere, but I can't remember where-may his book? about a point adjustment based on weight shifts. Might have been on a tape from one of the Handicapper's Symposiums.
I make an adjustment for distance on occasion. Tomorrow at AQU, 7th race, Undercover, second race back, 1mile/8th, he led at the stretch call, then faded. Today, he drops back to 1mile/16th.
I am giving him a Beyer of 77 for that race, since he he going shorter and led. I am also giving him an 89 for the third back - he won by 6.5, and I am arbitralily reducing the Beyer to a margin of two lengths - this is something I picked up back from Winning at the Races by William Quirrin a hundred years ago. In the previous race, whre he won by 6.75, I am giving him a 78, again adjsuting for the marging to two lengths. His maiden win of 84 is adjsuted to 75, again for the beaten lengths.
All I am doing is looking up the lentgh adjsutmetns from Beyer's book.
Now, this horse's Beyer history looks like this:

83 improved race, heading back to his top soon
77 trouble race in stakes
-------- lay off 8 weeks
89 new top after 7 weeks rest
78 slight regression, first route race
83 new top
75 pair up
75 top
-------- Layoff
49 FTS

I expect this guy to run high 80'2 today-maybe low 90's and a new top. He should top again next race or two. Whether he wins or not, depends on what everyone else is doing, but this is just an example of how I make adjustments.

[formula_2002]

Doug, what is the net profit after betting all those play in your last post?

Thanks

Joe M

[JustMissed]

BRIS/TSN PRIME POWER RESULTS-TAM 12/31/2002:

1. #9 $4.30, 4th pick
2. #10 $7.60, 4th pick
3. #1 $17.40, out
4. #3 $6.20, 1st pick
5. #8 $7.80, 2nd pick
6. #6 $3.40, 1st pick
7. #7 $10.60, 4th pick
8. #5 $7.40, 1st pick
9. #3 $7.60, 2nd pick
10#8, $6.40, 2nd pick

6 of 10 winners came from the top 3 Prime Power ratings.

Thanks for posting your racingpicks.com(I think that's correct)results. The comparisons are very useful to me.

Happy New Year to you and I'll post the Tampa TSN results for tommorrow.

JustMissed
:)

[Doug]

FORMULA2002 asked:

Doug, what is the net profit after betting all those play in your last post?

Tampa Bay- 10 races = $60 bet. Return= $61.40

LRL- 9 races= $54 bet Return= $64.20

CRC- 12 races= $72 bet Return= $77.80

PHILLY- 10 RACES= $60 Return= $60

One day. No real big prices. Over 4 different tracks.

Just checking for a contender selection and play overlays based on the true odds.

Doug

[Doug]

JUSTMISSED,

No Tampa Bay today.

Others:
Top 3
Aqu 6/10
Crc 8/12
Philly 4/9
Lrl 7/9
Sa 6/9
GG 8/9

Doug

[Marc At DRF]

fastracehorse wrote:

>Marc: How are U affiliated with DRF??


director online marketing & development. it's a mouthful, I know.

>I'm actually sure U are already aware of this becuase U believe ground lost is important. How can this be controversial??

A lot of players think including ground loss in speed figures is a mistake, because of issues ranging from track biases, turn-banking, and horses' velocity. I think there's some legitimacy to these complaints but still prefer groundloss in the figures. As for figures that don't include groundloss, I still prefer the sort of manual "massaging" of the figures by Beyer and his team over more mechanical figures. But to each his own, to be sure.

>Speed figs, like an adjd Beyer, cannot be used in a vaccum.

Again I get this weird feeling that some of the numbers-crunching going on here (by some on this forum) seems to be proposing using certain numbers in a vacuum. Hopefully I'm wrong about that.

>So, I do not do this. I luv high speed fig horses with trainer intent but I also incorporate other handicapping methods religiously. In fact, I would win much less if I didn't.

I hear you loud and clear. Makes perfect sense to me.

Semi-annual reminder if anyone here at paceadvantage has any suggestions/complaints/comments regarding drf and drf.com, don't hesitate to contact me privately at mattenb@drf.com

[midnight]

You'd get about 7 out of 10 winners from the top three favorites in every race, too. That won't make money, either.

[Fastracehorse]

I luv the post your picks contest board.

That forum has some excellent handicappers.

I wish I could say I win the contest everyday, but that would be impossible-some very strong handicappers:



General - Results Santa Anita 1/1 Subscribe
From: JACK300S Jan-1 5:57 pm
To: ALL (1 of 2)

3795.1

Todays winner at Santa Anita in a complete runaway is Fastracehorse! Outstanding capping with 5 winners Fast. Not to mention 9 out of 9 in the money. That's capping live horses. Congratulations..........

1st - Fastracehorse 5 wins, 1 place, 3 shows, 2 DD's, 1 PK3 = $323.20

2nd - Sircapper 3 wins, 2 shows, 2 DD's, 1 PK3 = $128.40

3rd - Yoda 4 wins, 1 place, 1 show = $60.60

3rd - 4marie 3 wins, 1 show, 1 DD = $60.60

4th - Uptherail 2 wins, 1 place, 1 show = $54.80

5th - JJHottalker 2 wins, 3 places, 1 show = $50.60

6th - Jack300s 3 wins, 1 DD = $44.20

7th - Truform 2 wins, 1 place, 3 shows = $39.60

8th - Barry 2 wins, 1 place, 1 show = $39.40

9th - Wingedfott 1 place, 2 shows = $20.00


Options Reply Rate




From: WINGEDFOOTWI Jan-1 6:05 pm
To: Fastracehors (2 of 2)

3795.2 in reply to 3795.1

Very Nice Fast!!


Options Reply Rate

[JustMissed]

Doug, Got back from Tampa Bay Downs about half a twelve pack ago. Had a good day. Here are the Prime Power results.

1. $19.20, # 1, out
2. $ 3.60, #1, 1st pick
3. $14.40, #1, 2nd pick
4. $29.80, #2, out(1st pick #12 scratched)
5. $6.80, #3, 1st pick
6. $17.00, #5, out
7. $3.20, #2, 4th pick
8. $27.20, #10, out
9. $5.20, #2, 1st
10.$60.80, #5 out

4 of 10 winners out of the top three Prime Power ratings, 40%

Doug, I bombed on the 2nd, 5th & 10th races. I cashed on the 3rd, 4th & 9th for $988. Not sure how these guys figure profit and ROI but I spent $240 on tickets, cashed for $988. I guess that's a profit of $748 for the day. If the ROI is the profit divided by the investment it would be 312%. Of course I may lose every bet tommorrow and my ROI will go to hell.

I have only been playing win bets and a few dutches since I started my little test with Prime Power figs, but just a little sidebar: The 10th at Tampa today paid $6,809.80. We all know how to play a 5 horse $1 trifecta for $30. You gotta think even Ray Charles could come up with 5 out of 10 horses as contenders.

Cya,

JustMissed
:)

[formula_2002]

JustMissed..One more time for the brain dead.

"Bill W., Handle, hdcper & others:

You guys were right on about the BRIS Prime Power. "

The above quoted from your first note.

But the results you have been posting ARE or ARE NOT Bris Prime
Power ratings?

Thanks
Joe M

[JustMissed]

Joe M.:

I posted BRIS/TSN because I believe that TSN is owned by BRIS and their numbers are the same. If I am wrong I stand corrected.

I only use TSN Ultimate PP's with Quick Play Comments. On the occasions when I have corresponsed with TSN about the use of their ACL, RR & CL figs and other handicapping issues, they said that the same usage that applies to BRIS applies to TSN.

Maybe one of us doesn't know what we are talking about.

JustMissed

[formula_2002]

Justmissed, tsn and bris are there same as far as the data IS concerned.

I have data for over 110,000 horses which include the Bris power rankings, and I wil tell you that no way can you achieve longterm results such as you have been talking about when you use them in a singular manner.

But now I understand that these rankings are supplemented with comments from "Qick Play".. And there in lies the value.

I thought that the Ultimate PP's you mentioned in your last immediate note were Past Peformance's.

So I gather you obtain the the Bris Power ranking form the Past Performances, then make a judgement about the Quick Play Comments and make a play on every race. Correct?

[GR1@HTR]

110,000 horses
Avg. 8 horses/field
110,000/8=13,750 Races
13,750/9 races per day=1528 Race Days or files
1528X7=$10,696 you paid for downlaod fees...
If you paid for all those yourself you have invested in almost $11K in download fees.

Now, for those who are not fans of unlimited download fees of $119/month...
This is what I got.
$119 X 48 moths=$5712 Invested(about 14 cents/file)
About 100,000 races/year

You have a database of 1,528 races for $11K
I have a database of 400,000 races for $6K

Not braggin, just pointing out the differences...

[formula_2002]

GR1 ypur math is accurate. But I have no idea of the data in your data base. My data comes from Bris's ALL-Ways and results files.

If you can save me some money by telling me how to get that same data at your rates, you can be my friend.

Thanks

Joe M

[Doug]

JUSMISSED,

Tampa Bay 1-02-2003

1st #1 $19.20 2nd pick

2nd #1 $3.60 3rd pick (after #9 scr)

3rd 1 $14.40 0ut

4th #2 $29.80 2nd pick

5th #3 $6.80 out

6th #5 $17.00 4th pick

7th #2 $3.20 top

8th #10 $27.20 2nd pick (after #7 scr)

9th # 2 $5.20 out

10th #5 $60.80 out


Only 5/10 top 3 picks, but that $19.60 and 27.20 make up for the low %.

Will submit more results later.

Hit a horse in the 3rd at Calder today ( #12) that wasn't in the top 3, but had a huge late pace rating according to my sheets.

Paid $127.00 and came from way back 71/2 furlongs on turf.

Doug

[Doug]

JUSTMISSED,

Disregard the above post. Got confused and did the selections from a different track.

Tampa Bay 1-02-2003

1st #1 $19.20 out

2nd #1 $3.60 2nd pick

3rd #1 $14.40 top pick

4th #2 $29.80 2nd pick(after #12 scr)

5th #3 $6.80 top pick

6th #5 $17.00 out

7th #2 $3.20 out

8th #10 $27.20 out

9th #2 $5.20 top

10th #5 $60.80 3rd oick WOW!

So actually the results are a little better.

Doug

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by formula_2002
NOTE:PARTIAL QUOTE FROM FORMULA-2002
Justmissed, tsn and bris are there same as far as the data IS concerned.

So I gather you obtain the the Bris Power ranking form the Past Performances, then make a judgement about the Quick Play Comments and make a play on every race. Correct?

Great question. I learned to handicap from studying Jerry Stokes book SECRETS OF HANDICAPPING and his weekly internet lessons. Jerry, because he sells his own software that uses both, recommmended BRIS and TSN because they had cheap files, $1.00 & $.50. I do not own or have ever used Jerry's software but started out buying the $.50 files. After I got a little bit better at handicappiing started buying the $1.50 Ultimate Past Performances with Quick Play Comments from TSN. Included is a Tract Bias Stats report, very usefull, and a Race Summary which shows avg pace, speed, etc., etc. the same stuff every one else has but also a Avergage Competive Level fig which is useful. The past performances themselves also show the Prime Power Rating as well as trainer, jockey & sire/dam stats., the same stuff you can get anywhere.

Between the jockey, trainer, sire stuff and the past running line stuff they show the quick plays comments which are a great time saver for me. The comments read like an experienced handicapper wrote them although I realize they are just computer generated from the Jockey Club data that everyone gets. The comments on the left side are marked as stars and are considered positive. The ones on the left of the page are marked with bullets and considered negative.

Postive comments are things like:
Drops in class today
Highest Speed Last Race
33% trainer:Down one class
Sharp 5F workout(Dec 22)

Negative Comments are things like"
Has not raced for more than 2 months
Poor "shipper" trainer record
Never raced on grass
Move up in class today

So on and so forth, pretty much the same stuff everyone else has and the same stuff anyone else can ferret from whatever pp they are using.

I was taught by Jerry Stokes to "throw out" horses to get down to a contender list of generally four to seven horses. Not faulting Jerry or his method, but me being an accountant and wanting to over analyze everthing, I was spending about four plus hours handcapping a 10 race card. One day it dawned on me that I was spending all that time capping and ending up with the same horses, more or less, that TSN had already included in their top 3 or 4 to Prime Power horses.

I am not a dumbass and I know all about value and overlays and longshots and certainly would never advocate just playing the top Prime Power horses. I have develped a way to quickly scan the internal points of call for three of Jerry Stokes's and a couple of Jim Lehane's angles. I think ALL-Ways calls this looking for DNC's(Dangerous Non Contenders), I just call it checking the "throw outs" to make sure I don't miss anything.

Anyway, if I am down to only four contenders, I use the same stuff everyone else uses to try to figure out which horse is going to win today. I am biased toward pace and class. I can't remember who wrote about every horse having a "cup of gas" to burn during a race and how some horse's have more than a "cup", but that is pretty much my approach to pace and class.
When I finish capping a race if I don't honestly know which horse is going to win, I pass the race, Period. If I bet and lose I look immediately to see what I missed(which is usually the case) or just chalk it up to bad luck and wait for the next bus to come along. Period.

Sorry to be so long winded. There are a lot of different ways to skin a cat and I try to remember that every player has different advantages and limitations. A guy playing multiple tracks on the internet has to have a different approach than a player at the paddock every day or a part-time simulcaster. No method is better or worse, like Karl down at Calder says "The only thing that matters is how much you walk in with and how much you walk out with".

Happy New Year

Justmissed
:)

[formula_2002]

Justmissed, thanks for all the detail and continued success .

I approach the game in another manner.
I'm a data base guy.

Joe M

[JustMissed]

Doug- I can't believe your sheet had the 5 horse ranked third in the 10th at Tampa. Keep that up buddy and soon you'll have to quite your job so you'll have time to count your bankroll.

I'm sure you saw my post where the trifecta paid $6,809.80. They finished 5-11-1. My Bris/TSN PP ratings were 7th, 4th & 5th.

I probably shouldn't know, but could you tell us what the racingpicks.com ratings were for those horses?

My son loves to play the tri & super. If you tell us they were in the top five he may flip out.

Thanks,

JustMissed

[Doug]

JUSTMISSED
Pace Pars--> 92 89 77 165
8~OUT OF.: 7/2 S 1 109 50* 79 80 91 171 84 312$ 72 71 0 64 137
6 HEIDI'.: 4 EP3 92 13* 87 81 70 151 64 153$ 64 65 -1 54 134
5 RANGER.: 8 S 1 83 7*14 81 74 79 153 50 146 48 47 -2 74 75
11 YA YA .: 5/2 EP0 80 71* 87 85 66 151 48 201 50 52 0 -- 6
9 SPECTA.1 8 E 5 80 * 90 70 0 0 60 0$ 58

Your son won,t flip out, at least not tonite.

Doug

[GR1@HTR]

Originally posted by formula_2002
If you can save me some money by telling me how to get that same data at your rates, you can be my friend.

I download from a vendor from www.horsedata.com (aka HDW) but there is also trackmaster that has all you can eat for $60. I am not familiar w/ their files though.

[formula_2002]

GR1 thanks for your reply. I used Track master about 10 years ago and tried it for some time. ALL_WAYS from BRis is my data of choice at the moment (last three years).

The web site mention does not list ALL-WAYs

Joe M

[Doug]

JUSTMISSED,

TAMPA BAY 1-03-2003

1ST #2 $16.80 OUT

2ND #7 $58.00 OUT

3RD #8 $12.40 TIED FOR 3RD

4TH #7 $11.00 4TH

5TH #5 $8.00 OUT (BET DOWN FROM 20-1 ML

6TH #5 $8.60 4TH

7TH # 8 $7.60 2ND

8TH #10 $16.40 3RD

9TH #2 $19.40 TIED FOR 4TH

10TH #6 $9.20 4TH

Pretty pathetic day. Not even one top pick wins

Gulfstream was a lot better including a $16.80 top pick, a $26.00 and $18.40 4th pick, an $11.80 2nd pick and a $25.80 tied for 3rd pick.

Doug

[JustMissed]

Likewise a miserable day for the Bris/TSN Prime Power numbers also. Only 4 winners out of the top 3 PP rankings. Zero winners ranked #1.

I would like to blame the weather but after seeing Aqueduct on the video( it looked like winter racing from Poland) I would feel guilty. Maybe tommorrow will be better.

Thanks,

JustMissed
:(

[Fastracehorse]

<Likewise a miserable day for the Bris/TSN Prime Power numbers also. Only 4 winners out of the top 3 PP rankings. Zero winners ranked #1.

U have posted quite a few gimmicky miserables.

fffastt

[Doug]

JUSTMISSED,

TAMPA BAY 1-4-03

1ST #1 $5.20 TOP

2ND #6 $38.40 OUT

3RD #8 $18.40 4TH

4TH # 3 $8.20 OUT

5TH #8 $10.20 4TH

6TH #1 $22.00 OUT

7TH #4 $24.40 OUT


8TH #8 $6.60 TOP

9TH #5 26.60 3RD

10TH #10 $4.00 TOP

11TH #11 $9.00 TOP

Doug

[JustMissed]

Doug-Here are the Tampa Bay Downs Bris/TSN Prime Power results for 1/4/2003.

1. #1, $5.20, 1st pick
2. #6, $38.40, out
3. #8, $18.40, out
4. #3, $8.20, 4th pick
5. #8, $10.20, 3rd pick
6. #1 $22.60, out
7. #4, $24.40, out
8. #8, $6.60, 1st pick
9. #5, $26.603rd pick
10.#10 $4.00, 2nd pick
11.#11, $9.00, 4th pick

5 out of 11 winners in the top 3 Prime Power, 7 out of 11 in the top 4 prime power numbers.

Doug, This will be the last day that I will post the Bris/TSN Prime Power results for Tampa Bay Downs. If you remember my original post, I was throwing out horses till I got down to a contender list of 1/2 of the field plus one. I will continue to monitor the results but I believe that if I use the 1/2 plus one with the power ratings plus a scan for DNC's, I may get 70+ percentage winners. I will of course add FTS's to my contender list for the maiden races as they don't have a power rating.

Looks like your racingpicks.com power ratings are very valid and I hope you will continue to monitor you results.

I really appreciate the sharing your of results with me. I am sorry you had to endure the little piss ant post from the junior high boys but that's the price we pay for using a public forum.

JustMissed

:)

[Doug]

JUSTMISSED,

Thanks,

I think I will be sticking with my Racepicks.com, as I am used to it and there are a few little nuances that I have become familiar with.

thanks for cooperating and good luck to you.

Doug

[Fastracehorse]

>I think I will be sticking with my Racepicks.com, as I am used to it and there are a few little nuances that I have become familiar with.

Afterall,

Honesty is the best policy.

fffastt