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bellsbendboy
08-29-2007, 01:30 PM
Seems the last thread got a bit off track so will try to be a bit more precise and analyze the workouts for todays nightcap at Saratoga. Typical, though not split maiden for fillies and mares three and up.

From the rail out and with brevity in mind;

DISCERNING: Nothing ever discerning with how the "chief" prepares one. Five works in fifteen days with the first one the only gate move very odd, but this filly adds the hood and that is never good off the fence for a green animal. Outsider.

Fashion Queen: Aptly named daughter of Montbrook for Calvin Klein boss has a very interesting pattern. Three panels June 29 followed very quickly by half mile four days later points this one out immediately as a runner. Another half brought a week off (or more likely a miss by the clockers) and a ship here, but next move very quick scoring 4th best of 44 and accomplished handily. Five eights follows, then a good looking gate half, followed by very salty five eigths all in timely fashion. Her last half, out of the gate again, salty win early pedigree and very capable first out conditioner makes this one the one to beat. Looks like a runner.

WHAT TIME IT IS: Started twice as a juvenile, both in added money events and ran creditably. Solid works for solid trainer with money work eleven days ago. Homebred been off a while and oddly adds blinks. Lots of questions here and little price. Pass.

DOWELL HOUSE: Danzig homer here as one of two 4yo's been working on the farm with eight works in as many weeks. The last two works are very interesting as she was the only one to work?? Shipped to Dutrow, he gives her a month off then a nothing half?? J. R, up and these connections like to put one over. Great pedigree. Probably practice but tough call here!

CLERICO: Decent moves in Florida but the wheels came off in Kentucky with a very blah fiver worst of 22. Not a good sign at all. Two months later another nothing three panel effort at Fair Hill, then a gap of a couple of weeks before working steady if not slow. Nice pedigree for this homer being a half to Offlee Wild and EQ nasty debut dad (16%) but only one gate move and Matz history says practice. Pass.

BATIDAS : The other 4yo has been out six times and has a race over the surface but would do well to get on the exotic fringes.

ETRO: Another who has a race over the track finishing an even fourth opening week. Worked over the poly in Lexington and as most of this trainers stock worked well. Two works since that debut, both in company, another trait of Biancone but even with expected improvment a minotr placing at best.

MISS BARRISTER: 350K yearling from the Lewis trust shows a serious six furlong (1:12.60) move in early June at Keeneland indicating copious amounts of talent. Moved to Churchill for three drills, each faster than the other before solid wet fast half here Aug 6th. The hand half Aug 19th the best move on the page. Dollase almost never fires first out but this one clearly has talent and the leading rider lands here. Threat.

PERFECT NATURAL: Three speedy outs have resulted in a third, fourth and a second downstate last month at 6-5. Clemente 400K Forestry filly shows a very odd gate work Aug 6th, has a very ouchy pedigree, gaps in her schedule and simply has not run fast enough to win without serious and dubious improvement.

EMKEL: Steady works for Russo but a bit on the slow side. Last two on the lawn and although nice precocity in pedigree an outsider.

DARJEELING: Four nondescript outs without a money finish convinces Toner to put the blinkers back on. Off since April and even with back to back bullets this one looks like she will need this.

LADYWELL PARK Off since late Februay when off in a tangle at 30-1 this one is tough to gauge. Pedigree screams gas but works show none of it. Not much to beat this spot and trainer good off the shelf makes this pricy yearling enticing at a big big number.

SILENT STREET: This filly appears to have a grass on grass pedigree given the the NIght Shifts can have a shoe the size of Syracuse but Ian says not yet. Clearly she has some talent but some issues. Pass.

Not meant to be the end all but a look at how I evaluate not only the works, but the gaps,distances, solo, in company etc. A tough game sure; but a fun one! BBB

Robert Fischer
08-29-2007, 02:36 PM
Very nice rundown.:ThmbUp:


That Dutrow filly could be interesting next start if she gets the right spot on the grass. Maybe 7 or 8 furlongs.

Premier Turf Club
08-29-2007, 03:06 PM
I hear Miss Barrister can run.

bellsbendboy
08-29-2007, 03:35 PM
Thanks Robert, that would be logical but Danzig himself was three for three all sprinting on dirt and the solo works very unusual. Premier, agree their is talent there and maybe she just missed Churchill. I do not think this is the deepest special weight. Ended up playing a 1,3,7,8,9 / 5,7 / 1 / 2,8 ticket.
BBB

Robert Fischer
08-29-2007, 04:43 PM
... and the solo works very unusual. ...

What track is WND? A training center? The most horses who worked the same day as this filly were 5. It must not be too uncommon for a horse to catch a solo work at WND.

Tee
08-29-2007, 04:53 PM
Winding Oaks Farm

What track is WND? A training center?

Tee
08-29-2007, 05:23 PM
#9 Perfectly Natural - Can't really pinpoint why she can just blow these away from gate to wire.

#5 Clerico - Nice win early sire, dam is a producer of runers. My concern would be the reason they stopped on this filly. Might just be leading to a better price today.

#3 What Time It Is - Comes back off the bench with a full work tab. Facing mdns for the first time, looked good on the track.

Tee
08-29-2007, 05:26 PM
The 9 is running her race right now behind the gate!! :)

Premier Turf Club
08-29-2007, 05:30 PM
I hear Miss Barrister can run.

She certainly did a good job of hiding it today though. ;)

jotb
08-29-2007, 08:56 PM
Hello all:

I think Linda Rice might have a nice little 2yo filly on her hands. Her name is Psycho D.J. and she will be running tomorrow at Sar. in the 4th race. The race is loaded with firsters and many of them have nice workout tabs but this filly to me seems like all systems go first out. She comes in with 6 works from 7/17 to 8/24.

Her first work was on the Bel training track on 7/17 was 5/8ths on a fast track and was clocked in 100.75b. There were 4 others that worked at the distance and she had the 3rd best work. A filly by the name of Teammate had the best time in 59.29H. Teammate ran 5th in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign this year. The 2nd best time was 100.8H by a 4yo colt that just recently win an ALWNW3L. The other 2 that morning ran in times of 102.16b and 103.27b and both of them have yet to make their debut.

Psycho D.J. received her 2nd work on 7/26 on the Sar fast main track and went a 1/2 mile in 47.64b. It was the 4th best of 33 that morning. The best timed work that morning was a handy 46.17 by the 3yo filly Akronism and she finished 6th in the Grade 1 Darley Test Stake at Sar. on 8/4. The 2nd best time 47.27H was from a 2yo colt that has failed twice in MSW company. The 3rd best time came in 47.63H from Linda Rice's 4yo colt S.S Crafty and he finished 3rd recently on the turf in a 35knw3L. As you can see the time for the Linda Rice's horses were almost identical except the 2yo filly breezed and the other was a handy work. More than likely they went in company.

On 3 day's rest 7/30 the 2yo filly comes back with another 1/2 mile work but this time from the gate times in 48.48bg. It was still the 16th best out of 62 that morning but the main goal was achieved because she recieved her gate card.

The 2yo filly throws another 1/2 mile work on 8/7 on the Sar.fast main track and this was timed in 47.14H. It was the best of 29 and the next best came from Dry Martini and he finished 5th in the Grade 1 Whitney.

Linda sends the filly back to work on 8/16 going 5/8ths this time and the clocking was 100.12H. It was the best of 21 that morning. Teuflesberg was clocked in 100.27b (Graded Stakes winner), According to Plan 100.32b (running in stake company) and Holy Canyon 100.45H (running in Stake company).

On 8/24 she gets her final 5/8th work clocked in 100.3b. It was the 2nd best of 27. The best time recorded at that distance was 100.1H by Becky's Flute the 3yo filly that finished 5th in the NY Bred Lady D'Accord Stake. The 3rd best time 100.45b of the morning came from Maimonides a 2yo colt that aired first time out winning off the screen by 11.5 Lengths.

I Know Linda is known for quick drills from her stock and also over the years has produced many 2yo debut winners and this will always hurt in the odds department but I believe this 2yo filly might be very special down the road and I just get the feeling she has been doing this in easy fashion and will win at first asking with a little racing luck.

Best regards,
Joe

speedking
08-29-2007, 10:48 PM
Excellent write-up Joe; actually too good:lol:

Only thing you did not mention is that this filly is by Indian Charlie, one of my favorite sires for FTS in sprints. I'm not certain, but I think this syndicate won with a FTS a couple weeks ago which opened and went off at very short odds.

I like this one a lot also and only hope that the Zayat/Mott/Desormeux filly Freakstein takes some serious action just off connections. Kent has not been riding well since Sat or Sun.

Great pickup and analysis, Joe. Thanks :ThmbUp:

speedking

bellsbendboy
08-30-2007, 10:35 AM
Both our first time starters were somewhat compromised and did not run well at all. Fashion Queen inherited the inside after the scratch and broke that way. While this is not always fatal, another poster on another thread, tosses firsters off the fence without prejudice and it is sound practice by the numbers. Miss Barrister is a nice looking filly and was very washy going to the post. When the horse to her immediate outside pitched a bitch and had to be blindfolded to load ( all of a sudden the "odd" gate work for this one makes sense) it could not have helped her and she walked out of the gate. Both will win with the latter being at a route of ground.

Darjeeling ran to her bullets and won well clear returning some $33. This one has always displayed some talent but had been a nut case and we figured she would need one. Pricy 90K 2yo purchase gets Toner off the duck and he has a juvenile in today that gets lasix and has outworked Darjeeling in company twice!

Robert: It is not uncommon that this filly worked by herself; what is unusual that with 400-550 horses at the center that no other horses worked that distance, that day.

Good stuff Joe: Taking the time to do this sort of research pays off. As for your selection I think she is very live. The 7/30 work was the only one in company (most gate works are such) according to a national clocker, and she finished on even terms with the stablemate that is in the second. I do not like only one gate move and that being thirty days before the first start but....Miss Barrister did not show a gate move, maybe thats why Dollase is weak with his debut runners? The move on Aug 7th is stakelike.

Was never going to include Darjeeling in the pick 4 and almost went five deep in the seventh without the winner, but our single was a standout and wasted. Several national figure makers had Criminologist third or fourth fastest, (out of six) but using her Beyers and the movement of the turf rail in her races made her a MOST LIKELY winner. Wish some of the speed figure forumites here would chime in on this one. I'd be impressed if any of them had her fastest as I have yet to find anyone who makes accurate turf figures. Play again Friday. Thanks for the input. BBB

Spiderman
08-30-2007, 11:30 AM
5 mdn races today and one jumper - I decided to take a day off.

The workout analysis posted above for Linda's runner in the 4th is very good. My knocks against are: 1) 3-1ml second choice and 2) trainer is only 9% w/fts

I'll sit it out and review events for another day. Good luck.

cj
08-30-2007, 11:44 AM
Am I the only one that finds it amusing in a thread about workouts, the one horse that had a NEW TRAINER and TWO BULLET WORKS was ignored by the initiator of the thread? That is some funny shit.

jotb
08-30-2007, 01:16 PM
5 mdn races today and one jumper - I decided to take a day off.

The workout analysis posted above for Linda's runner in the 4th is very good. My knocks against are: 1) 3-1ml second choice and 2) trainer is only 9% w/fts

I'll sit it out and review events for another day. Good luck.

Hello Spiderman:

The odds will be a factor for sure if she's legit. If she's what I think she is I believe she will open up a hugh favorite then drift up and get hit late again.

I believe she is better than your stats say about FTS because she did have one bad year where she was 0-34 in 2004 other wise she's around 13% but remember something about this type of stat and many other stats . All it basically means is that Rice is capable of getting it done but if you insist on the poor stat always keep in mind a horse at any given time can make a liar out of stats.

joe

jotb
08-30-2007, 01:58 PM
Excellent write-up Joe; actually too good:lol:

Only thing you did not mention is that this filly is by Indian Charlie, one of my favorite sires for FTS in sprints. I'm not certain, but I think this syndicate won with a FTS a couple weeks ago which opened and went off at very short odds.

I like this one a lot also and only hope that the Zayat/Mott/Desormeux filly Freakstein takes some serious action just off connections. Kent has not been riding well since Sat or Sun.

Great pickup and analysis, Joe. Thanks :ThmbUp:

speedking

Hello Speedking:

You are right! I never made any mention of the breeding and maybe I should but I was not impressed at all with the breeding except for Indian Charlie. I usually focus my attention on the dam's side and her dam is Valid Wind and she had 2 foals (Doubly Appealing and Valuable Jet) which both won races but are not classy types at all. To their credit they both won early on except it took a few races. I went back to Valid Winds dam which is Canyon Winds and she dropped 4 foals including Valid Wind and they all were nothing special. I'm sorry I didn't note this all and I should have but when you see a 2yof work the way she has I will overlook this stuff only because alot of time horses will not run to their breeding. Surprise surprise! By the way,at most this 2yof will be nothing more than sprinter.

Joe

Spiderman
08-30-2007, 02:16 PM
Hello Spiderman:

The odds will be a factor for sure if she's legit. If she's what I think she is I believe she will open up a hugh favorite then drift up and get hit late again.

I believe she is better than your stats say about FTS because she did have one bad year where she was 0-34 in 2004 other wise she's around 13% but remember something about this type of stat and many other stats . All it basically means is that Rice is capable of getting it done but if you insist on the poor stat always keep in mind a horse at any given time can make a liar out of stats.

joe

Survived not betting first three races. The tote opened for 4th and she is
4-5. Wouldn't expect that the drift-up goes higher 2-1 in this 8-horse field. I'll pass the race and wish all good luck. All I'll play today is the late P4.

speedking
08-30-2007, 07:59 PM
The Rice filly broke poorly and made a nice move to reach contention, but could not overcome that rough start:mad:

Another Indian Charlie FTS got up for 3rd after a strong move while 4 wide on the turn. Stewart does better 2nd time out also.

The final Indian Charlie FTS of the day was the Baffert entry in the 6th...Broke alertly and ran the field off their feet with a very sharp effort. No surprise to anyone the way he trained in CA.

At least Linda got the money with her City Zip FTS on the grass in the finale. Saved ground all the way and finished powerfully off wild fractions to win easily. Best turf breeding in field and worked very well over the lawn.

speedking