I'd like to know how they knew about this Trombetta firster

[cees with dees]

I can read the paper and see Trombetta is 35% with firsters and that the horse was working well but going in, this was a tough field and this horse took more money than I've seen any horse take since the days of Herve Filion and Buddy Gilmour.
Then, to add insult to injury, the horse bore out under left handed whipping bumping the 6 several times and the stewards made the race official within 5 minutes.
I called the Stewards and got the voicemail which was answered by Braulio Baeza Jr.
I guess I answered my own question.
Turn the page.........

[rrbauer]

I can read the paper and see Trombetta is 35% with firsters and that the horse was working well but going in, this was a tough field and this horse took more money than I've seen any horse take since the days of Herve Filion and Buddy Gilmour.
Then, to add insult to injury, the horse bore out under left handed whipping bumping the 6 several times and the stewards made the race official within 5 minutes.
I called the Stewards and got the voicemail which was answered by Braulio Baeza Jr.
I guess I answered my own question.
Turn the page.........

Well you can bet against the man's winning FTS percentage; or, you can bet against the steam that bet the hoss down from 15-1 to 5/2 (in what you describe as a tough field, it opened at 7/2); or, you can bet against the win-money-to-show-money ratio of over 8-1 (6-1 on a FTS at a major track signals serious intent) that produced a $4.50 show payoff on a $7.80 winner (the 10 at 5-1 paid $4.40); or, you can say "enough already" and jump on the bandwagon!

I didn't watch the race so I can't comment on how it was run. (Nor, did I bet on/against it.)

[Kelso]

or, you can bet against the win-money-to-show-money ratio of over 8-1 (6-1 on a FTS at a major track signals serious intent) that produced a $4.50 show payoff on a $7.80 winner


Richard,
Would you please direct me to a book and/or website that develops this sort of analysis more fully?

Thank you.

[the_fat_man]

Then, to add insult to injury, the horse bore out under left handed whipping bumping the 6 several times and the stewards made the race official within 5 minutes.
I called the Stewards and got the voicemail which was answered by Braulio Baeza Jr.
I guess I answered my own question.
Turn the page.........

You actually want a take down for the stretch run?

I'd take another look.

[NY BRED]

he's already scored at the Spa with a firster, and that very day ran
into the money at, I believe, either MTH or DEL.

I also had the #6 on a win and double play, so I feel your pain..


Then of course, I made Grasshopper one of my key pick siox upsets,
which finished me for the day when Albarado appeared to be bumped
but refused to make a call against his buddy.


What was proven is that Street Sense wqs able to win on class, but
may l be vunerable in the Breeders Cup.

[point given]

I can read the paper and see Trombetta is 35% with firsters and that the horse was working well but going in, this was a tough field and this horse took more money than I've seen any horse take since the days of Herve Filion and Buddy Gilmour.
Then, to add insult to injury, the horse bore out under left handed whipping bumping the 6 several times and the stewards made the race official within 5 minutes.
I called the Stewards and got the voicemail which was answered by Braulio Baeza Jr.
I guess I answered my own question.
Turn the page.........

Last week, Trombetta had a firster score there and paid $14 named Caves Valley. OF course in my infinite wisdom , I caught him in the double but took him out of my p4 , costing me $1800 - 1/2. So I remember the combo very well (as did alot of other punters). The two horses seem to have also worked together in a 7F drill, unusual for firsters. The ML was terrible by the NYRA odds maker. It was certainly an open secret on this horse after the first one won so convincingly, they say things come in 3's though, so i'd keep my eyes open, for that next 6/5 !

[DanG]

Not the MLO maker’s finest moment. :eek:

I saw the head on and didn’t see a DQ to be honest, but these things are subjective as we have all seen.

[speedking]

Not the MLO maker’s finest moment. :eek:

I saw the head on and didn’t see a DQ to be honest, but these things are subjective as we have all seen.


I needed 6 or 10 for all my P3's, but still could not fault the decision. The 3 blind mice are at least being more consistant. They let almost anything go :rolleyes:


Anyone see the final race at CRC yesterday? Had a large P3 and DD keyed to the 7 and still can't believe the finish. Sure looked like the 30/1 was supposed to win and my rider almost screwed it up by getting the lead :bang:

speedking

[Grits]

I was at Saratoga a couple of days short of a month. As the saying goes . . . you tell one, you tell one hundred. One hundred multiplied by 100 more, the horse opens far below his morning line.

Everyone on the property has gotten down on the horse. That's Saratoga. This fact, along with knowing Trombetta can and does, usually deliver.

I can read the paper and see Trombetta is 35% with firsters and that the horse was working well but going in, this was a tough field and this horse took more money than I've seen any horse take since the days of Herve Filion and Buddy Gilmour.
Then, to add insult to injury, the horse bore out under left handed whipping bumping the 6 several times and the stewards made the race official within 5 minutes.
I called the Stewards and got the voicemail which was answered by Braulio Baeza Jr.
I guess I answered my own question.
Turn the page.........

[Overlay]

Would you please direct me to a book and/or website that develops this sort of analysis more fully?

Like you, I'd be interested in any source for that 6-1 ratio between win bets and show bets. The only hard figure I've seen with regard to odds or pools on first-time starters applied only to two-year-olds, and used the odds themselves as a guide, with horses at 6-1 or lower having a significant advantage over horses going off at higher odds. I've seen angles involving horses in general (not just first-time starters) that talked about looking for disparities in the amounts bet on the horse to win versus to show, or in the horse's share of the total win pool versus its share of the show pool, as signs of intent, but I don't recall seeing any specific ratios mentioned.

[speedking]

Just a note that Trombetta has a FTS in the 3rd at Del today. A Stronach homebred by Golden Missile.

[rrbauer]

Like you, I'd be interested in any source for that 6-1 ratio between win bets and show bets. The only hard figure I've seen with regard to odds or pools on first-time starters applied only to two-year-olds, and used the odds themselves as a guide, with horses at 6-1 or lower having a significant advantage over horses going off at higher odds. I've seen angles involving horses in general (not just first-time starters) that talked about looking for disparities in the amounts bet on the horse to win versus to show, or in the horse's share of the total win pool versus its share of the show pool, as signs of intent, but I don't recall seeing any specific ratios mentioned.

There is no book. The 6-1 ratio comes from years at the track betting/agonizing over what to bet where FTS and comebackers are concerned. It generally works best at the bigger tracks (although Oaklawn Park is an exception because of the preponderance of tourist show bettors there). 6-1 is a rule of thumb. Look at the total pool ratio of win to show dollars. Then look for individual horses that have a win to show ratio at least 50% over that. The whole exercise is based on the idea that well-meant horses are being bet on the frontend; and, not by the public.

As an aside the same analysis can lead to some good show prices simply because those horses are not being bet to show!

That's all you get!!!

[Kelso]

I've seen angles involving horses in general (not just first-time starters) that talked about looking for disparities in the amounts bet on the horse to win versus to show, or in the horse's share of the total win pool versus its share of the show pool, as signs of intent, but I don't recall seeing any specific ratios mentioned.


Thank you OL and Richard. I think some ratio analyses would make for an interesting database study.

[cees with dees]

Just for the record, I didn't have a nickel on the 6 so it wasn't like I felt I took a bad beat. I just thought, and I've been around a long timedespite my ripe young age of 43, that this horse took a phenomenal amount of money on the biggest tourist day of the year outside of the BC. and they got him home.

And without a bet on the 6, I really felt he should have come down. Doesn't mean I'm right either. And when I said tough field, McGuaghey's horse from the rail was 9-1 and that horse has been a victim of tough trips and anti-bias runs and certainly at worst figured to have a shot. Not one animal outside of Jimmy Jerkens horse took a dime except the 12 and since Jimmy never wins without calks, or should I say rarely, I juust want to know how to tell if this is real money of like Grits said, the snowball effect.

Anyway, turn the page. Another card today and manana.

Good luck all.

Ben

[DanG]

Anyone see the final race at CRC yesterday? Had a large P3 and DD keyed to the 7 and still can't believe the finish. Sure looked like the 30/1 was supposed to win and my rider almost screwed it up by getting the lead :bang:
speedking
Two things Speed…

Having played Calder for many years and knowing the very sensible policy of not casting “unsubstantiated” allegations…I will stay out of this one, except for this parting shot…

You sometimes play the bottom rung of MCL’s at your own risk depending upon who is riding. :faint:

I leave you with the following appropriate Python classic…;)

Snap snap, grin grin, wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more. Follow me. Follow me. A nod's as good as a wink to a blind bat! :)

[ryesteve]

Anyone see the final race at CRC yesterday? Had a large P3 and DD keyed to the 7 and still can't believe the finish. Sure looked like the 30/1 was supposed to win
The double came back less than a parlay. If this horse wasn't "supposed" to win, some folks in the DD pool sure were unreasonably confident.

[Overlay]

There is no book....That's all you get!!!

Richard:

Thanks for your response. I don't doubt the validity of your observation. I try to keep up with any available sources of quantitative probability data in the racing universe, and thought you might have been aware of or referring to such a reference that I had somehow missed. I appreciate your clarifying the situation (and I shan't ask for more).

[toetoe]

Trombetta's runner won the 3rd, paying $13.00, $5.80 and $3.00.

[toetoe]

Sorry, it paid $9.00 to win. :bang:

[Ron]

My college buddies bought a tip sheet at the Spa yesterday. The Trombetta horse was the sheet's top pick for the race.

[BIG RED]

Anyone see the final race at CRC yesterday? Had a large P3 and DD keyed to the 7 and still can't believe the finish. Sure looked like the 30/1 was supposed to win and my rider almost screwed it up by getting the lead :bang:

speedking

I had Swarm Cat myself , just to win. It was one of those pull my hair out days anyway, so that didn't make me crazy (I think)

[jotb]

I can read the paper and see Trombetta is 35% with firsters and that the horse was working well but going in, this was a tough field and this horse took more money than I've seen any horse take since the days of Herve Filion and Buddy Gilmour.
Then, to add insult to injury, the horse bore out under left handed whipping bumping the 6 several times and the stewards made the race official within 5 minutes.
I called the Stewards and got the voicemail which was answered by Braulio Baeza Jr.
I guess I answered my own question.
Turn the page.........

I would think the clockers were on top of this firster NOW A VICTOR. On 8-10-07 he worked in company with a horse by the name of CAVE'S VALLEY and CAVE'S VALLEY come out at first asking and won on 8-17-07 at 6-1. CAVE'S VALLEY is a 2yo and NOW A VICTOR is a 3yo so the clockers seen something in NOW A VICTOR that morning that was special. By the way, the work on 8-10-07 at Sar was 7F in 129.7bg. They both had the same time and were the only two to work at that distance that morning.

Joe

[speedking]

Sorry, it paid $9.00 to win. :bang:

"Trombetta's runner won the 3rd, paying $13.00, $5.80 and $3.00"

That's OK Toetoe, I'm still smiling:)

[speedking]

Two things Speed…

Having played Calder for many years and knowing the very sensible policy of not casting “unsubstantiated” allegations…I will stay out of this one, except for this parting shot…

You sometimes play the bottom rung of MCL’s at your own risk depending upon who is riding. :faint:

I leave you with the following appropriate Python classic…;)

Snap snap, grin grin, wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more. Follow me. Follow me. A nod's as good as a wink to a blind bat! :)

I'm fully aware and agree, Dan, but this was so damn flagrant here :bang: The 7 actually made a clear lead and the rider grabbed the reins so he ducked out losing ground and all momentum as the 30/1 came back again on the inside. Chart says the 7 lugged in, but if so it's cause the horse was shocked to be whipped at that point.:eek:

Tough business!

speedking