Hard Spun

[46zilzal]

To tell you the truth, I have never cared for this one. A positional front runner (not a velocity front runner) he has done far more than his pace numbers would ever predict. These horses (Nasuha types I call them as that one ran the same way) just put out enough to stay in front so they do not give you consistent ratings (that was until the distances got too far for this one and he eyeballed a pair at Baltimore and got tuckered out).

He is one dimensional and is over his head here.

We know this one cannot close and his velocities predict he cannot last up on the pace with the type of animal he is meeting Saturday. At this point in the analysis, he appears a distinct also ran if he hits the board at all.

[ghostyapper]

I don't like this horse at all at a mile and under. By placing him in the kings bishop they are taking away his greatest strength, high cruising speed.

He belongs in the Penn derby or even the travers.

[Robert Fischer]

I agree with both sentiments, however I think Hard Spun is actually the the most solid runner in this race.

The peak talent in this race is a little shakey - Baffert and Frankel have the only horses who could possibly be graded level sprinters (in my opinion and standards). I think Frankel's Defence is just as likely to quit, although he is one of two with potential. Baffert's EZ Warrior should fire, but could be a little bit short. This is basically Warrior's first race off the layoff all over again. King of The Roxy will be forwardly placed and could deliver a solid performance. Spin Master has speed but looks very cheap to me.

Hard Spun's individual characteristics-
Hard Spun's natural quickness is better than most entered here, in spite of the cut-back in distance angle, which is normally a play against for "route speed".

He is a big dog and when he gets moving it's hard to slow him down.- That 5furlong work pre Derby which so many clockers miscalled, was basically a 3furlong tightener with a gallop out. He may not notice some of these smaller sprinters and will be comfortable cruising in third among some all out second rate sprinters while he waits to see if EZ Warrior will come back to him.

I think he has a great chance to win by default here.

Tueflesberg,Most Distinguished and Pauilliac probably can't run him down.

[Bruddah]

beat Hard Spun at Oaklawn (1 mile) earlier in the year. Notice how he beat him. He wouldn't let him around. This race led Larry Jones to scream he (Hard Spun) didn't like the track, yada, yada, yada, ad nauseum. He picked up his tack and went north.

I was at the race, Hard Spun met a superior horse, that day, in a long sprint. Couldn't get around him and quit. It was very obvious then, and I believe it will happen again. (JMHO) and subject to tearing up my tickets, just like everyone else. However, Tueflesberg has my serious money in this race. :ThmbUp:

[keilan]

The peak talent in this race is a little shakey - Baffert and Frankel have the only horses who could possibly be graded level sprinters (in my opinion and standards). I think Frankel's Defence is just as likely to quit, although he is one of two with potential. Baffert's EZ Warrior should fire, but could be a little bit short.

Tueflesberg,Most Distinguished and Pauilliac probably can't run him down.

This is a great race to play imo, several possibilities for a nice payday as long as Hard Spun doesn’t win and better if he doesn’t hit the board.

I like horses (2) Spin Master, (7) Teufleshberg, (9) First Defense and (11)King of Roxy and all are capable to upset but (1) EZ Warrior is extremely talented and I expect him to run a monster race tomorrow. (3) Hard Spun belongs in the top group until proven otherwise.

Two other horses that might be under the radar are (6) Forty Grams & (10) Bold Start who I’ll use in the exotics.

Frankel’s Defence likes the front and things should be interesting the 1st quarter – expect a quick pace but I have this guy finishing well unless the pace is insane. My key horse is (1) EZ Warrior only gonna get beat once or I’ll be loading up the wheelbarrow.

[Tee]

Is there a Curlin, Street Sense, or RTR in the King's Bishop?

Could make all the difference in the world for Hard Spun.

[point given]

"Tueflesberg has my serious money in this race".

As they said in hawaii 5 0 , " bookit dano ! " I am heavily against Teufelsberg and his 2 % trainer. If he beats me , he beats me, BUT, he is a frontrunner, normally and I don't cotton to 7F frontrunners in a field with a fair amount of front end speed. He fell into his win at Belmont, when, fortunately for him, he stumbled out of the gate, otherwise he woulda been toast up front with the rest of them. The big Q, is if they learned something from it and will he rate if he breaks well and will robby be able to rein him in. I backed Most Distinguished in the Belmont race and like him again and the Frankel horse as well. We will have to see how the track is playing on saturday though.

[Edward DeVere]

I'm astonished how many wise-guys are picking Teuflesburg over Hard Spun. Weird.

[ArlJim78]

Hard Spun likes to cruise and doesn't have another gear. He'll be in the picture for awhile but I feel he'll get very uncomfortable with the pace and end up wilting late.

[Robert Fischer]

King of the Roxy


is a horse you have to handicap here as well

[Tom]

I'm thinking HS will be sitting 3-4 and close in the stretch.
He has faced far better than this field, and has a good route foundation.
He could be a power sprinter.

HEY CLASSS.......

This is the day he rates! ;)

[DanG]

My key horse is (1) EZ Warrior only gonna get beat once or I’ll be loading up the wheelbarrow.
I agree with Keilan that EZ Warrior will fire big with a clean break. (Something he has had issues with)

At a HUGE price, look at #5 “Longley” for your exotics. Take a look at his last race if you want to see the trip from hell for a well meant horse. The comment line in the PP’s isn’t even close. :eek:

Here are my notes from the race…”You name it...it happened. Loaded wrong, ck hard ft, huge wild burst back, blk 2t, wrapped up late.” Love the turn back and ever since Motion has put blinkers on this one he is a different creature.

[the_fat_man]

The BARBARO points to the irony in the game. (I was going to write about this when I first watched the race but I figured, why bother? nobody really cares about these things.)

Dominguez is sitting his patented suckup/draft trip, inside of Xchanger and just behind the speed, when DUMBASS J Rose guns Longley up the inside just before they hit the 2nd turn. As a result, Dominguez is shut off, suddenly, when they hit the turn, and has to go around Xchanger. He quickly goes from comfortably stalking on the inside, to having to chase, under pressure, cause he was forced to drop back, on the turn. And once they hit the stretch, Dominguez' weakness, THE SLOW WHIP, is clearly on display as he's unable to 'rouse' (strongly handle) KOTR and he can't catch Xchanger.

I've thought all along that KOTR is as good any 3 year old going 1 Mile or less. He gets his chance tomorrow. Too bad he doesn't have a stronger jockey up. I don't get it. Edgar rides this horse perfectly.

And would a 'tightening' work geared for a sprint be too much to ask?

I have Hough working Trippi's Storm a 46 half in preparation for 1 1/2 miler (which, of course, he proceeded to blow by being too close to the pace) and Pletcher is breezing this horse as if he's going to route him next. wtf?

[keilan]

So fats -- is KOTR your choice or not or r u betting Edgarrr? Or is Pletcher to blame for not preparing the horse to your liking? You left yourself a couple of outs big boy.

[classhandicapper]

I'm thinking HS will be sitting 3-4 and close in the stretch.
He has faced far better than this field, and has a good route foundation.
He could be a power sprinter.

HEY CLASSS.......

This is the day he rates! ;)

:D

I think Hard Spun, King of the Roxy and Teuflesberg are perfect examples of power sprinters. All fit very well here.

These are horses that could easily have either sprinted or routed, but their connections chose to try to route them because of the larger purses and greater prestige that comes from winning one of the spring classics or major preps.

That is why IMO the best route races tend to be better than the best sprint races. The best routers all route and some of the best versatile sprinters also route (at least for awhile). That makes the route races deeper and more competitive and typically thins out the sprint division.

In the race itself I think HS deserves to be the favorite but he's had a long hard campaign and it's not unusual for a horse like this to suddenly run out of steam and throw in a dud. I think you have to weigh in a slightly higher risk factor for him running a stinker than for some of the lightly raced horses that might be moving forward rapidly.

Maybe KOTR deserves to be 2nd choice because I believe this has been a primary objective and IMO he's better going short.

Horses like EZ Warrior (improving and undefeated on dirt), Spin Master/Pauillac (monster workouts prepping for this), and First Defense are all eligible to improve sharply. There's nothing wrong with Most Distinguished either.

IMO, races like these are tougher than they look because some of the better horses aren't as likely to improve and could move backwards. The opposite is true for the second tier.

I like to look for biases in situations like these. If there is one, then I can comfortably throw out a few horses and spread around on all those that I think that can take advantage and be good enough to win.

If there's no bias, I'll probably pass unless the odds are really out of whack.

I'd be hard pressed to take HS at his likely price even though I make him the most likely winner.

I might use KOTR a little under and over a few horses if he goes off at his ML 10-1, but it would be a light bet because I legitimately think a lot of horses could run much improved efforts here.

I think a horse like Pauillac will probably finish up the track because he has to improve so much to even get into the thick of it. But he'll definitely be on a few tickets very lightly as a live bomb (if I bet) off his recent workout line. I think this horse is ready to step forward in a major way, but this spot is probably just way too tough.

[BIG RED]

I'm thinking HS will be sitting 3-4 and close in the stretch.
He has faced far better than this field, and has a good route foundation.
He could be a power sprinter.

HEY CLASSS.......

This is the day he rates! ;)

Exactly how I put it in another forum Tom. I believe he is first in speed and class for this race group. A nice surprise would be to see him rate. He would win, and maybe at a decent price.

[46zilzal]

Exactly how I put it in another forum Tom. I believe he is first in speed and class for this race group. A nice surprise would be to see him rate. He would win, and maybe at a decent price.
You have to go back to his TWO year season at Delaware Park to find any line close to the razor sharp sprinters who can gun from the start in E Z, Spin, Teuflesberg (who has shown to be the quickest of this group), and then knowing this one's tendency to look them in the eye and spit the bit, it is very difficult to see him lasting very long out there on the lead, which is the limit of this one's game. You can't run and hide from these..

[46zilzal]

I was at the race, Hard Spun met a superior horse, that day, in a long sprint. Couldn't get around him and quit. It was very obvious then, and I believe it will happen again. (JMHO) and subject to tearing up my tickets, just like everyone else. However, Tueflesberg has my serious money in this race.
Won't get around him again. Our German named friend is too quick, can get position and keep it.

[Robert Fischer]

Tueflesberg will probably not be a big early pace factor today. He will have to run them down late.

[DJofSD]

To tell you the truth, I have never cared for this one. A positional front runner (not a velocity front runner) he has done far more than his pace numbers would ever predict. These horses (Nasuha types I call them as that one ran the same way) just put out enough to stay in front so they do not give you consistent ratings (that was until the distances got too far for this one and he eyeballed a pair at Baltimore and got tuckered out).

He is one dimensional and is over his head here.

We know this one cannot close and his velocities predict he cannot last up on the pace with the type of animal he is meeting Saturday. At this point in the analysis, he appears a distinct also ran if he hits the board at all.

zz, I agree with your assessment. I see at least 5 others that will be in front of Hard Spun for the first two calls. I believe this will take him out of any chance for a placing. He'll be out of his comfort zone and does not have the ability to overcome the deficit late.

I like Spin Master to be on or near the lead early keeping company with E Z Warrior, Bold Start and Most Distinguished. First Defence and Teuflesburg will be challenging late and as long as Spin Master does not get fried he should be able to hit the wire first.

[46zilzal]

Teuflesburg has recorded the fastest opening fraction here in his race at CRC (21.7 , 44.5 pace and lasted) and could gun out as well. I agree that Spin and EZ have good shots here. I don't see anyone coming from too far out of this one as the speed is too solid.

[ArlJim78]

I agree with Keilan that EZ Warrior will fire big with a clean break. (Something he has had issues with)

At a HUGE price, look at #5 “Longley” for your exotics. Take a look at his last race if you want to see the trip from hell for a well meant horse. The comment line in the PP’s isn’t even close. :eek:

Here are my notes from the race…”You name it...it happened. Loaded wrong, ck hard ft, huge wild burst back, blk 2t, wrapped up late.” Love the turn back and ever since Motion has put blinkers on this one he is a different creature.
oh boy, I just looked at the replay of Longley's "adventure", in the Barbaro.
trip from hell doesn't begin to describe it. easily one of the worst rides i've seen in awhile.
and the comment line? "rail bid-flattened out".:D

[the_fat_man]

So fats -- is KOTR your choice or not or r u betting Edgarrr? Or is Pletcher to blame for not preparing the horse to your liking? You left yourself a couple of outs big boy.

My intent was to bet 3 today, Keilan

Got the Last Laugh (who is 2:1 at this point and much too low --so I might pass on this one)

Konqueror

KOTR

[GaryG]

Teuflesburg has recorded the fastest opening fraction here in his race at CRC (21.7 , 44.5 pace and lasted) and could gun out as well.That was on a track that was just upgraded to good and was still wet. These are tougher than Black Seventeen and Teufy (who loves a wet track) had every chance to get by him. Get your excuses ready if HS wins it...

[DJofSD]

Teuflesburg has recorded the fastest opening fraction here in his race at CRC (21.7 , 44.5 pace and lasted) and could gun out as well.

I think he'd run a better race, i.e. hit the board, if he does not attempt to go with the early pace setters. I'm not saying he can't go early -- he can -- I just think he does his best running when he's allowed to settle into his style which today will put him not that close for the first couple of calls.

I have no problem taking a stand against the likely post time favorite and betting against him. If I'm wrong and Hard Spun shows more ability, class, and wins the race, I'll offer no excuses -- he was the better horse. But from a pace perspective and how I see today's race stacking up, he's up against it.

[46zilzal]

Get your excuses ready if HS wins it...
Don't use them unless there is an obvious foul. Races run if I don't predict them correctly, I turn the page.

[joeyspicks]

I will offer what I guess is a minority opinion: HARD SPUN to win!!


(Did everyone forget the super race HS ran in the KDerby? ? ....

yes his next races each get worse.....however I'm looking (& betting) for a nice
reversal today...:ThmbUp:


Good luck

Joe

[john del riccio]

My figs say that FIRST DEFENSE improved alot in his lasr race where as the Beyer did not, if he is a square price, I will be playing him. Hard Spun is a solid colt but he will be of no real value so I wil only use him lightly in the exotics. Most Distinguished is on the improve and King Of The Roxy ran a moster race at GP going 7 1/2f so I will use them with FD.

Good Luck.

JOhn

[46zilzal]

(Did everyone forget the super race HS ran in the KDerby? ?

You mean the one where everyone else LET him go? that one?

[ArlJim78]

You mean the one where everyone else LET him go? that one?
yeah and the fact that the derby is one turn and 3 furlongs longer than this race hardly makes it applicable. he will have plenty of company up front, the likes of which he has never seen before.

i think Hard Spun has no good options today, there is no way he can wire this field and he has never shown that he can come from off the pace, go wide, pass anyone, etc.

[46zilzal]

Actually, pace wise, his Preakness was his best race.

[keilan]

Konqueror




I concur -- sitting at 5-1 with 15MTP

[JimG]

On my "all-stakes" Pk4 ticket, I have the 1, 3, and 9. I agree with Keilan that EZ Warrior could be cranked for today and run a good one. At least I hope so.;)

Jim

[Robert Fischer]

.I agree with both sentiments, however I think Hard Spun is actually the the most solid runner in this race.

The peak talent in this race is a little shakey - Baffert and Frankel have the only horses who could possibly be graded level sprinters (in my opinion and standards). I think Frankel's Defence is just as likely to quit, although he is one of two with potential. Baffert's EZ Warrior should fire, but could be a little bit short. This is basically Warrior's first race off the layoff all over again. King of The Roxy will be forwardly placed and could deliver a solid performance. Spin Master has speed but looks very cheap to me.

Hard Spun's individual characteristics-
Hard Spun's natural quickness is better than most entered here, in spite of the cut-back in distance angle, which is normally a play against for "route speed".

He is a big dog and when he gets moving it's hard to slow him down.- That 5furlong work pre Derby which so many clockers miscalled, was basically a 3furlong tightener with a gallop out. He may not notice some of these smaller sprinters and will be comfortable cruising in third among some all out second rate sprinters while he waits to see if EZ Warrior will come back to him.

I think he has a great chance to win by default here.

Tueflesberg,Most Distinguished and Pauilliac probably can't run him down.

[DanG]

Hats off to a well deserved gusty Grade-1 win!!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[GaryG]

That is your prototype power sprinter...very happy for Larry Jones and Mario. :jump: :jump:

[keilan]

On my "all-stakes" Pk4 ticket, I have the 1, 3, and 9. I agree with Keilan that EZ Warrior could be cranked for today and run a good one. At least I hope so.;)

Jim


That's pretty fair pickin Jim -- congrats

All my juice was on the #1 otherwise..............

[keilan]

Nice call as well Robert -- you don't miss much, well done

[bigmack]

All my juice was on the #1 otherwise..............
Well, as you say, your record speaks for itself. Looks like it's saying your "juice" is misdirected. :cool:

[Tom]

The best part of the whole race was the owner's comments with Jeanine - "...Foxy old FART team, er, ah, FARMER team......" :lol::lol::lol:

Nice race.
I think they should stay sprinting.
But then, I don't buy the oats.

[john del riccio]

My figs say that FIRST DEFENSE improved alot in his lasr race where as the Beyer did not, if he is a square price, I will be playing him.

At the 1/4 pole I stood up, at the 1/16 pole I sat down...

John

[JustRalph]

Hey 46....................


Turn the page!!!


I gotta bust your balls on this one...........you started the thread

[toetoe]

I was with you, John. He flagged just a bit, but take nothing away from Hard Spun. :ThmbUp:

[ghostyapper]

What a performance by hard spun. I guess he can compete with top class sprinters, even though there were none in the race today.

I'd still like to see him go to the classic though.

[joeyspicks]

Don't use them unless there is an obvious foul. Races run if I don't predict them correctly, I turn the page.


as Bob Seeger once said.........

[DanG]

At the 1/4 pole I stood up, at the 1/16 pole I sat down...

John
LOL…:D

That’s good John!

Congrats to everyone who read it well, which I was not among BTW. :ThmbUp:

[ArlJim78]

yeah and the fact that the derby is one turn and 3 furlongs longer than this race hardly makes it applicable. he will have plenty of company up front, the likes of which he has never seen before.

i think Hard Spun has no good options today, there is no way he can wire this field and he has never shown that he can come from off the pace, go wide, pass anyone, etc.
ahhh, that feels better now. just took a shower to clean the egg off my face, and had my plate of steaming crow for dinner.

i just thought there would be tons more pressure on him.

he is a real nice horse and didn't mind one bit that he made me look foolish today. a deserving GR1 winner,

[Hank]

A well deserved G1 for Hard spun,did you notice Pino ALMOST fell off in the final 16th:D

PS CLASS WILL TELL:ThmbUp:

[Edward DeVere]

I'm astonished how many wise-guys are picking Teuflesburg over Hard Spun. Weird.

As I said - weird.

[classhandicapper]

PS CLASS WILL TELL:ThmbUp:

;)

[DJofSD]

Last night, I finally watched the recording I made of the ESPN broadcast of the 3 races on Saturday. One thing I learned just a tad too late was there is a clause in the sale contract for Hard Spun that if he won a Grade I race, there was more money for the owners. I don't know if that would have influenced me one way or the other if I had known about it prior to the race but it would have been something to consider.

As to the actual race and the pace, some horses didn't "show up" as I had anticipated. I guess the early speed by HS was superior to all but Spin Master.

Congrats to those that bet the class of the race!

[Greyfox]

We know this one cannot close and his velocities predict he cannot last up on the pace with the type of animal he is meeting Saturday. At this point in the analysis, he appears a distinct also ran if he hits the board at all.

Crow or humble pie, Sir? :lol:

[ryesteve]

One thing I learned just a tad too late was there is a clause in the sale contract for Hard Spun that if he won a Grade I race, there was more money for the owners.
I could've sworn I read that someplace here, when it first announced that they were optiing for the KB and not the Travers.

[Stevie Belmont]

Good Call...

To tell you the truth, I have never cared for this one. A positional front runner (not a velocity front runner) he has done far more than his pace numbers would ever predict. These horses (Nasuha types I call them as that one ran the same way) just put out enough to stay in front so they do not give you consistent ratings (that was until the distances got too far for this one and he eyeballed a pair at Baltimore and got tuckered out).

He is one dimensional and is over his head here.

We know this one cannot close and his velocities predict he cannot last up on the pace with the type of animal he is meeting Saturday. At this point in the analysis, he appears a distinct also ran if he hits the board at all.

[john del riccio]

Don't you think you guys are being a little hard on 46, he took a stand, and he was wrong, most uf us are wrong 70% of the time.....

John

[sammy the sage]

I think more like 85% would be more accurate........lol's

[Greyfox]

Don't you think you guys are being a little hard on 46,
John

No. He took a very very firm stand.

[Greyfox]

I think more like 85% would be more accurate........lol's


Wrong. 46Z was picking who wouldn't win.
He didn't say who would win. My chances of picking a non-winner are quite high.

[bobphilo]

One thing I learned just a tad too late was there is a clause in the sale contract for Hard Spun that if he won a Grade I race, there was more money for the owners.

Darley’s plan to raise Hard Spun’s stud value with a Gr1 win was very successful in the King's Bishop. Given that a Breeder’s Cup win would further increase his value considerably, I wonder if Darley will offer a similar incentive to the owner to run him in the BC Sprint (rather than the Classic), where he has a better chance at a win?



Bob

[46zilzal]

Crow or humble pie, Sir?
neither......it is called part of the game. If I had it all figured out I wouldn't be talking to any of you here. Bet a 6/5 shot with all that appeared against him?

This one represents a well known HOLE in the Sartin methodology a "Nashua type" pure positional runner that has no correlation to segmental velocities. Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons described Nashua as running, each time, "just enough" to be in front and it always bugged him, HENCE the naming of this angle for that charge.

They are uncommon but noted.

[njcurveball]

Wrong. 46Z was picking who wouldn't win.
He didn't say who would win. My chances of picking a non-winner are quite high.

Mr. Greyfox, I look forward to your posts as you must have a 100% success rate! Simply list all the favorites you think will lose, that will help me out greatly!

[Greyfox]

Mr. Greyfox, I look forward to your posts as you must have a 100% success rate! Simply list all the favorites you think will lose, that will help me out greatly!

Listing all of the favorites who will lose will likely put you right 60 to 66 % of the time.

[JustRalph]

As to the actual race and the pace, some horses didn't "show up" as I had anticipated.

I think they showed up..........they just couldn't keep up with those fractions. I thought HS was done at the half...........I know what you mean by not showing up and I am razzing you here a little.........but you have to admit HS did it the hard way.............

[DJofSD]

Hey -- I put it out there, so, I'm wide open for a little 'take down.'

I see in the results that E Z Warrior hit the starting gate on the break. He figured into what I thought would be at least 4 of them setting the early pace.

[DanG]

Hey -- I put it out there, so, I'm wide open for a little 'take down.'

I see in the results that E Z Warrior hit the starting gate on the break. He figured into what I thought would be at least 4 of them setting the early pace.
He did on the head-on DJ. In all fairness that’s 5 starts and 3 gate incidents, so it’s officially an issue with him. (Oddly 4 starts from the 1 box) He did show some quality getting 3rd, but no one was doing much running behind the top two to be honest.

[john del riccio]

He did on the head-on DJ. In all fairness that’s 5 starts and 3 gate incidents, so it’s officially an issue with him. (Oddly 4 starts from the 1 box) He did show some quality getting 3rd, but no one was doing much running behind the top two to be honest.

dan,

i'm sure you caught his gallop out, if they spot this horse appropriately, he is gonna run a big one next time 9assuming he doesn't fall out of the gate again.

john

[DanG]

dan,

i'm sure you caught his gallop out, if they spot this horse appropriately, he is gonna run a big one next time 9assuming he doesn't fall out of the gate again.

john
Baffert is looking at the one-turn Jerome Mile.

Quote from today’s DRF; [Dave Grening and Mike Welsh]

"He doesn't seem to have the gate speed he had as a 2-year-old," Baffert said. "He dropped well out of it in the King's Bishop, then all of a sudden he kicked in and began weaving his way through horses. I thought he showed a lot of guts and ran awesome. I'll probably bring him back in the Jerome."
Beautifully bred talented horse, but with SERIOUS feet problems. That surprised me about the Saratoga spot with so many trainers saying their horses run down there.

Agreed John…Very dangerous animal. I’m not ashamed to say I bet him in that spot. I will say I admit to getting MUCH too cute leaving HS off ALL of my tickets. Sure won’t be the last time I make a bone-head play, but that one felt especially dumb on the backstretch. :eek: :D

[Robert Fischer]

EZ and Defence both stepped up a little in my mind, in spite of settling for second and third. I liked both horses as the potential talent to beat Spun going in, but each showed they are more well-rounded than I suspected.

If you told be EZ would have blown the start again, and not been with the speed, I wouldn't have included him on trifecta or superfecta wagering. I love that kind of effort. This was basically his first comeback race. The del mar race he was close to injuring himself and almost did a "split". "Chirp" him out of the gate cleanly, and he is going to be very tough.

If you told me Hard Spun would fire, and First Defence would have to come up with him into the stretch, I would have guessed First Defence would have completely wilted. I had First Defence more as a chance to run off the weak spin master and just run away from things on the front end. I thought he may be the type to need everything his way, and he showed a little more toughness in the Bishop.

[keilan]

(1) EZ Warrior is extremely talented and I expect him to run a monster race tomorrow. (3) Hard Spun belongs in the top group until proven otherwise.

Frankel’s Defence likes the front and things should be interesting the 1st quarter – expect a quick pace but I have this guy finishing well unless the pace is insane. My key horse is (1) EZ Warrior only gonna get beat once or I’ll be loading up the wheelbarrow.


My main comments on this race spoke of two horses that I expected to step up their game EZ Warrior & Defense. Not only did EZ break poorly and slam the gate he raced from a position that would have had lesser horses quit. Defense ran as exactly as advertised. EZ went off at 9.4-1 & Defense closing odds were 6-1.

Hard Spun was clearly the class but I along with most others were looking to cash a ticket by beating him -- 6/5 horses aren't my cup of tea.

[john del riccio]

EZ and Defence both stepped up a little in my mind, in spite of settling for second and third. I liked both horses as the potential talent to beat Spun going in, but each showed they are more well-rounded than I suspected.

If you told be EZ would have blown the start again, and not been with the speed, I wouldn't have included him on trifecta or superfecta wagering. I love that kind of effort. This was basically his first comeback race. The del mar race he was close to injuring himself and almost did a "split". "Chirp" him out of the gate cleanly, and he is going to be very tough.

If you told me Hard Spun would fire, and First Defence would have to come up with him into the stretch, I would have guessed First Defence would have completely wilted. I had First Defence more as a chance to run off the weak spin master and just run away from things on the front end. I thought he may be the type to need everything his way, and he showed a little more toughness in the Bishop.

EZ was favored 9albeit a weak one0 in the crosby vs. older, that is incredible to say the least. I viewed him as a pure speed horse and 7f was no bargain but the way he ran was very impressive. I'm not sure about a 1 turn mile but
lets see who shows up. As for First Defense, his MTH race was very much better than the beyer boys gave it and when he was sitting up there at 8-1 I
really couldn't beleive it. He headed HS but I don't think he was ever in danger of winning, he hooked a classy animal that din't pack it in when headed; Now, if HS were to run in the Jerome, that'd be interesting.

John

[NYPlayer]

My main comments on this race spoke of two horses that I expected to step up their game EZ Warrior & Defense. Not only did EZ break poorly and slam the gate he raced from a position that would have had lesser horses quit. Defense ran as exactly as advertised. EZ went off at 9.4-1 & Defense closing odds were 6-1.

Hard Spun was clearly the class but I along with most others were looking to cash a ticket by beating him -- 6/5 horses aren't my cup of tea.

The trifecta paid $230. I'd say Hard Spun was good value on top in the exotics.

[Robert Fischer]

keilan - you were right-on about First Defence. I had my doubts to his gameness, although I respected his talent.

Ny - it was a nice tri :)

[keilan]

The trifecta paid $230. I'd say Hard Spun was good value on top in the exotics.

Without me going back -- what did you say before the race?


I first posted, this imo was a race that had several possibilities and would pay well if Hard Spun missed the board. That's the difference some of us don't play for $230 trifecta's in those situations.

Quite honestly it would not have surprised me either way had Hard Spun won or finished 6th and I wasn't about to key a $4.60 horse before the fact. Believe me there are enuff races everyday were I can play cold or boxed exactor's and then take a few horses for 3rd in the trifecta 10 or 15 times.

[keilan]

keilan - you were right-on about First Defence. I had my doubts to his gameness, although I respected his talent.


Pretty decent energy for a horse with his cruising speed. Yeah I figured you liked him some so I tried to reinforce your opinion beforehand. :)

[jjm323]

neither......it is called part of the game. If I had it all figured out I wouldn't be talking to any of you here. Bet a 6/5 shot with all that appeared against him?

This one represents a well known HOLE in the Sartin methodology a "Nashua type" pure positional runner that has no correlation to segmental velocities. Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons described Nashua as running, each time, "just enough" to be in front and it always bugged him, HENCE the naming of this angle for that charge.

They are uncommon but noted.

Do you have any recommendations for who will not win the Forego?

[jjm323]

Hard Spun was clearly the class but I along with most others were looking to cash a ticket by beating him -- 6/5 horses aren't my cup of tea.

That is short sighted thinking, as Hard Spun had great value as a key in the tri, similar to Premium Tap last year, as the only Gr 1 winner in the Clark Handicap ($700 tri with Wild Desert and AP Arrow underneath). A 6/5 with value underneath is a great exotic play.

[ArlJim78]

That is short sighted thinking, as Hard Spun had great value as a key in the tri, similar to Premium Tap last year, as the only Gr 1 winner in the Clark Handicap ($700 tri with Wild Desert and AP Arrow underneath). A 6/5 with value underneath is a great exotic play.
i would argue that the value key for the tri was First Defence. Hard Spun didn't add value to that tri, but First Defence provided for a nice tri despite Hard Spun winning at 6-5.

[Robert Fischer]

I thought Hard Spun was the most likely winner as well as an underlay in the win and in the win slot-exacta pool.

The trifecta was nice also because of some horses like tueflesberg being overbet by the public. I "called" the tri, but I was just naming the three best horses. It wasn't a trifecta pick. Some of the scenarios played out differently than I expected. Who had EZ Warrior closing? The scenarios should really be in line if you want to redboard properly.:lol:

To have constructed a trifecta, I would have hit, but had to go a little deeper (most distinguished,paiullac,tueflesberg.. underneath). I would have also had to key Hard Spun on 3 different trifectas one for 1st 2nd & 3rd. Thats a fair investment for a moderate return.