Life of a method/system

[Niko]

What would anyone say the life expectancy is for a profitable method or spot play? I seem like I'm re-inventing myself about every 4-5 years. What seemed to work doesn't anymore or the odds start going lower as the public catches on.

Do you think with computers and data mining that edges are lost quicker? One answer would be yes, but then again the winning percentages of different odds categories seems to remain the same.

[Capper Al]

I think thta there may be patterns. That somethings actually work for awhile, while others don't. For example, until this year I always preferred trainer to jockey. This year the jockeys are getting the best of the stats for me. I don't mean one or two points one way or another. It flip flopped by a lot both ways.

Polytracks now will changes things around also.

[nobeyerspls]

What would anyone say the life expectancy is for a profitable method or spot play? I seem like I'm re-inventing myself about every 4-5 years. What seemed to work doesn't anymore or the odds start going lower as the public catches on.

Do you think with computers and data mining that edges are lost quicker? One answer would be yes, but then again the winning percentages of different odds categories seems to remain the same.

I used the words "better or worse, richer or poorer" when I got married 39 years ago and each year got better.
As to the life expectancy of profitable methods, you're really asking if horseplayers are better handicappers and better wagerers as it takes both to make them richer. With all the data added to the form and the availability of computer-based tools to purchase, it seems like we still have about 33% winning favorites. This tells me that the overlay players are alive and well.
My handicapping skills have improved quite a bit over those 39 years but it is only recently that I am doing better with the wagering side.

As to the durability of methods I think that some have survived in different ways. Back when pro football wasn't all that profitable as a business, Art Rooney, the owner of the Steelers, sometimes needed a longshot at the track to help him make the payroll. He looked for horses that ran a fast last quarter mile. The pace handicappers today look at various segments of a race perhaps doing what Art Rooney did but in a more scientific way.
Then again, things like uncontested speed and long-to-short haven't changed a bit.

[Overlay]

I don't know what the average "shelf life" would be, but it seems to me that those with a longer applicability would have one or more of the following characteristics:

1) dealing in basic elements that have demonstrated consistency and durability in their performance patterns over time;

2) encompassing multiple factors rather than one overriding aspect or angle;

3) not directing everyone to the same horse to be played at any odds, but providing an idea of the relative winning chances of all horses in a field (or at the very least of the top horse selected by the system) to allow the factoring of wagering value into the equation;

4) considering probabilities associated with performance characteristics, rather than having a set of go/no-go rules that totally eliminate horses from further consideration if they fail to meet one of the selection criteria.

[46zilzal]

The major reason for this: no one actually learns a system well before they change to another which they don't know well.

[racefinder2]

systems only work when theyre working...