Betting Synthetic Surfaces

[speedking]

This is a new book coming out next month from DRF Press. Listed on Amazon now.

Betting Synthetic Surfaces: Conquering Racing's Newest Frontier (Hardcover)
by Bill Finley (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/102-6040388-5856138?%5Fencoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books&field-author=Bill%20Finley) (Author)
List Price: $24.95 Price: $16.47 & eligible for FREE Super Saver Shipping on orders over $25. Details (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/subst/misc/super-saver-shipping-pop-up.html/ref=mk_gship_dp/102-6040388-5856138) You Save: $8.48 (34%)

[garyoz]

Interesting....but doubt there are enough data at this point provide reliability for any analysis. i.e, DMR seems to change pretty dramatically in very short periods of time.

[GaryG]

I believe that Bill Finley is one of the sons of author William Scott.

[chickenhead]

I was told the shipping will be abnormally slow for this book.

[JustRalph]

I was told the shipping will be abnormally slow for this book.
:lol: :lol: Classic!!!

[DanG]

I was told the shipping will be abnormally slow for this book.
LOL Chick…:D

True, but it should get here in one piece. ;)

[speedking]

I was told the shipping will be abnormally slow for this book.

Only the last 16th from the truck to the house ;)

speedking

[speedking]

I believe that Bill Finley is one of the sons of author William Scott.

Yes, Gary, he is.

speedking

[midnight]

Frank Lyons (of TVG) said that the speed that the the book arrives in depends on the truck it's delivered in. According to Frank: "The larger trucks won't be able to grab the road, and they'll go much slower."

[Premier Turf Club]

Interesting....but doubt there are enough data at this point provide reliability for any analysis. i.e, DMR seems to change pretty dramatically in very short periods of time.

I agree. One of my partners is a confirmation expert, size of hoof, angle of hoof, size of frogs, etc. He believes that there are no two artificial surfaces that are the same. More importantly an individual track can vary from day-to-day and even race to race, much more so than with dirt. I used to laugh to myself about it when Poly first came out but I've seen him pick too many $60 winners with no form on paper and toss 4/5 favorites that looked like they couldn't lose.

Bill Finley is a good handicapper and a interesting read, but anyone that's played the artificial surfaces will tell you that Woodbine is nothing like Keeneland which is nothing like Hollywood's cushion track.

JMHO.

[cj]

You can find this book in the Mystery section.

[Premier Turf Club]

You can find this book in the Mystery section.

:lol::lol::lol:

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay, I am game.


I'll let you know when I get it.


Dave

[speedking]

You can find this book in the Mystery section.

It's sure been a mystery to me :D

IMHO, I doubt this book will hold many clues either. Hope i'm proved wrong once again. :)


speedking

[46zilzal]

I agree. One of my partners is a confirmation expert, size of hoof, angle of hoof, size of frogs, etc. He believes that there are no two artificial surfaces that are the same. More importantly an individual track can vary from day-to-day and even race to race, much more so than with dirt.
The horsemen who run and train on it are as much in the dark as the rest of us as well.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'll look for the book with the plastic cover!!

[Dan Montilion]

I've been having success with the "Pam On, Pam Off" angle.

[Tom]

I heard that all California horseplayers are mandated to have a copy of it by the end of the year!

[Kelso]

I've been having success with the "Pam On, Pam Off" angle.


Pam on top, or bottom? :eek: :blush:

[DanG]

The horsemen who run and train on it are as much in the dark as the rest of us as well.
Replace “The” with “Some” and you will be closer to the truth.

46…You do live in a world of absolutes and blanket statements IMO.

[Hosshead]

Well as long as nobody cares how slow they are being forced to run:
Why not just dig the tracks into a 4foot deep mote, and fill it with water.
Their feet will hit the bottom very lightly, and the kickback won't cause cancer.
It'll bring new meaning to the word Aqueduct.

[speedking]

Well as long as nobody cares how slow they are being forced to run:
Why not just dig the tracks into a 4foot deep mote, and fill it with water.
Their feet will hit the bottom very lightly, and the kickback won't cause cancer.
It'll bring new meaning to the word Aqueduct.


Guess that would finally be the end of Winter racing in NY:(


speedking

[Tom]

Who cares about times?
If they all run 48 114, so what?
The obsesesion with speed is meaningless.
BTW, you knwo what they called 48 114 at FL whn I started betting there in the 60's? The feature race!~LOL!

[Greyfox]

Who cares about times?
If they all run 48 114, so what?
The obsesesion with speed is meaningless.
BTW, you knwo what they called 48 114 at FL whn I started betting there in the 60's? The feature race!~LOL!

Maybe I should have taken up Harness Handicapping.
The times aren't much farther away.
They don't just run 48 114 , try higher in Del Mar routes.
Try 51+.
My Grampa could run 51 (when my Gramma was chasing him in 48).
Yawn.

[Greyfox]

1948 that is.

[DanG]

Maybe I should have taken up Harness Handicapping.
The times aren't much farther away.
They don't just run 48 114 , try higher in Del Mar routes.
Try 51+.
My Grampa could run 51 (when my Gramma was chasing him in 48).
Yawn.
Arguably the most prestigious race in Europe is the ‘Arc.

As a point of comparison, “Bago” ran his Arc in 2:25, while it took “Sakhee” 2:36+ to run his and the great “Montjeu” 2:38+ for his run. 99% of euro based handicappers would tell you “Bago” couldn’t hold their feed bag, so the comparison of fast times on dirt to a stamina first surface are really apples and oranges IMHO.

[Greyfox]

Arguably the most prestigious race in Europe is the ‘Arc.

As a point of comparison, “Bago” ran his Arc in 2:25, while it took “Sakhee” 2:36+ to run his and the great “Montjeu” 2:38+ for his run. 99% of euro based handicappers would tell you “Bago” couldn’t hold their feed bag, so the comparison of fast times on dirt to a stamina first surface are really apples and oranges IMHO.

Prior to the Arc "Bago's" connections said:
"Bago will run in the Arc provided the ground is not soft to heavy."
Obviously Bago got his track.
Certain horses are suited for certain surfaces.
Del Mar is suited for stamina types who can sit just off the pace.
As an indication how slow the surface is, the current Del Mar runners in routes are going slower than they will at Fairplex's bull ring next month.
These are quality horses and are going slower than you will observe at every cheap track in North America. At the various pace calls they are running
15 to 17 lengths behind where they would be at Santa Anita.
Sure you can bet them. I'm just not into slow motion.

[dutchboy]

During the triple crown races either bloodhorse.com or t-bred times.com had a few articles written by a pedigree expert than picked the horses based on the size of the hoof. May have been written by Lauren Stitch. Not sure if it was her. Theory as I remember it was that size of the hoof could be determined by the known size of the feet of the sire and mare. The articles explained how the size of the feet affected how a horse may perform on different types of dirt or run on turf. I had forgotten them until I read your post.

I agree. One of my partners is a confirmation expert, size of hoof, angle of hoof, size of frogs, etc. He believes that there are no two artificial surfaces that are the same. More importantly an individual track can vary from day-to-day and even race to race, much more so than with dirt. I used to laugh to myself about it when Poly first came out but I've seen him pick too many $60 winners with no form on paper and toss 4/5 favorites that looked like they couldn't lose.

Bill Finley is a good handicapper and a interesting read, but anyone that's played the artificial surfaces will tell you that Woodbine is nothing like Keeneland which is nothing like Hollywood's cushion track.

JMHO.

[46zilzal]

Arguably the most prestigious race in Europe is the ‘Arc.

As a point of comparison, “Bago” ran his Arc in 2:25, while it took “Sakhee” 2:36+ to run his and the great “Montjeu” 2:38+ for his run. 99% of euro based handicappers would tell you “Bago” couldn’t hold their feed bag, so the comparison of fast times on dirt to a stamina first surface are really apples and oranges.
I wrote several articles reprinted in The Backstretch outlining European race courses (it was entitled Courses for Horses and ran in the early 90's). One of the things I was amazed to discover is how many of these course are UPHILL in the lane. That accounts for major differences along with the undulation of the ground (the Curragh) the right or left handed-ness of the course, the crowning of the surface for run-off, the undersurface (Newmarket is never listed as firm as it sits on a peat bog) and the fact that they NEVER takes races OFF.

They use an interesting device to determine course denseness. A penethrometer is used. A pointed device with a set weight dropped along it's sliding course delivers a pre-determined force to the pointed end. At many points around the course they take readings as to how far the device moves into the ground. The further in, the softer is listed the course. Listings go from 1 upward. The higher numbers indicate softer courses.

[46zilzal]

Replace “The” with “Some” and you will be closer to the truth.

46…You do live in a world of absolutes and blanket statements IMO.
Well, when you converse with 20 horsemen and you get 20 answers, what do you think your response might be? After I talk to 80 trainers, I might have a different perspective.

Easy to believe only reading the DRF or the talking heads on ESPN but I am AT the track talking to people who have run over it and are still scratching their heads. I respond to people who are IN THE GAME, not some arms-length clown who wants to promote this new surface based upon these bogus turf to dirt claims that are completely unsubstantiated.

[Greyfox]

Well, when you converse with 20 horsemen and you get 20 answers, what do you think your response might be? After I talk to 80 trainers, I might have a different perspective.

Easy to believe only reading the DRF or the talking heads on ESPN but I am AT the track talking to people who have run over it and are still scratching their heads. I respond to people who are IN THE GAME, not some arms-length clown who wants to promote this new surface based upon these bogus turf to dirt claims that are completely unsubstantiated.

I'm inclined to agree with you 46Zil. Some may understand the surface. The majority don't. Not yet at least. Here's what Nafzger recently said:

"What exactly is the effect of a Derby contender going from a new Polytrack surface to the time-tested strip at Churchill Downs?
"That's a hard question to answer," Nafzger said. "I think we're on a three-year learning curve of how to ride the Polytrack, how to train on the artificial surfaces and also how to manage artificial surfaces. Keeneland has it now, Arlington will have it this summer and California [tracks are] all moving to synthetic surfaces. So how it's going to play [Saturday], I don't know."

[Overlay]

"That's a hard question to answer," Nafzger said. "I think we're on a three-year learning curve of how to ride the Polytrack, how to train on the artificial surfaces and also how to manage artificial surfaces.

Well, so long, everyone! I'll be back on the PA board in 2010! :D

[46zilzal]

"What exactly is the effect of a Derby contender going from a new Polytrack surface to the time-tested strip at Churchill Downs?
"That's a hard question to answer," Nafzger said. "I think we're on a three-year learning curve of how to ride the Polytrack, how to train on the artificial surfaces and also how to manage artificial surfaces. Keeneland has it now, Arlington will have it this summer and California [tracks are] all moving to synthetic surfaces. So how it's going to play [Saturday], I don't know."

EXACTLY the response almost every trainer told me.

[DanG]

Well, when you converse with 20 horsemen and you get 20 answers, what do you think your response might be? After I talk to 80 trainers, I might have a different perspective.

Easy to believe only reading the DRF or the talking heads on ESPN but I am AT the track talking to people who have run over it and are still scratching their heads. I respond to people who are IN THE GAME, not some arms-length clown who wants to promote this new surface based upon these bogus turf to dirt claims that are completely unsubstantiated.
I have no idea who you are talking to, but I am relatively confident if I proclaimed the sky blue over my house today you would be 20 posts into a denial already.

I can’t comment on Woodbine / Kentucky, but I talk to dozens of people very well connected to So Cal and the positive feedback FAR outweighs the negative. I realize you will disagree and I would expect nothing less.

We disagree so often, I’m almost numb at this point. :bang:

[GaryG]

IWe disagree so often, I’m almost numb at this point. :bang:Comfortably Numb I certainly hope....

[DanG]

Comfortably Numb I certainly hope....
Absolutely Gary!!! :D

I would love to visit ‘The Dark side of the Moon with 46 and Grey, but its Travers Day!!! :jump:

Best of luck if you’re playing.

[Greyfox]

Absolutely Gary!!! :D

I would love to visit ‘The Dark side of the Moon with 46 and Grey, but its Travers Day!!! :jump:

Best of luck if you’re playing.

Is the Dark Side of the Moon made of poly? The side we see is made of cheese.:lol:

[DanG]

Is the Dark Side of the Moon made of poly? The side we see is made of cheese.:lol:
LOL…:D

Yes, A well aged Limburger no doubt. :eek:

[Tom]

EXACTLY the response almost every trainer told me.

Maybe they were just trying to get rid of you!

"Yeah, sure, that's it...it's bad. Gotta run!" :lol:

[GaryG]

Better to visit the Dark Side than to be up against The Wall...Oh no, I'm starting to sound like Toe Squared. :eek: