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View Full Version : OK, Just Finished Rating Jockeys At WO and FE


Cangamble
08-18-2007, 11:56 PM
Here it is:

http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2007/08/rating-jockeys-at-fort-erie-and.html

Overlay
08-19-2007, 01:09 AM
I'm not disputing the usefulness of your insights, but to me, hard performance statistics tell the story effectively, and can more easily be incorporated into decisions on what a horse's winning chances are, whether to bet it, and, if so, how much. You may lose a bit in nuances (like missing an angle where a specific jockey is the "go-to" option when a particular trainer's horse is well-meant, even though the rider may not be among the meeting's leaders), but the savings in time make up for it (at least for me).

Cangamble
08-19-2007, 01:22 AM
My list isn't correlated exactly with winning percentages. There are some jockeys who do well with less talent and some talented jocks who don't do so well.
It really shows my confidence in jockeys when using my speed figures.

David Clark for example doesn't do nearly as well when I pick him, but he does well many times when I don't, because he gets a lot of hidden horses (2 year old first time starters for example).

Overlay
08-19-2007, 01:37 AM
As you say, it's important to know what works with your own particular style or method of handicapping.

nobeyerspls
08-19-2007, 08:02 AM
Here it is:

http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2007/08/rating-jockeys-at-fort-erie-and.html

I seldom consider the rider when I handicap. Sometimes after catching a winner someone will ask me who rode the horse and I have to go back and check.
Your analysis is quite good and I might know since my summer home is six furlongs from the Fort Erie track. The two jockeys providing the best return at the Fort are Brian Bochinski and Mike Quong. King is a solid rider who is always over bet. The key to a nice exotic payout is to catch him in a race where he's astride a slow animal. Sealock is underrated and Mike Mcmullen is a guy who loses his balance during a race. If you watch the head-on replay you'll see his horses swerving from left to right and back again.
There is very little difference in talent at Woodbine as evidenced by the %win stats for the jockeys. The only comment I disagree with is the one made about Jones. He got a 20-1 filly home for me and it was a dirt sprint. It was my largest lifetime cashing experience.

cj
08-19-2007, 09:20 AM
If Chantel is #3, #4 and below must be pretty sad when compared to the big leagues.

Cangamble
08-19-2007, 09:42 AM
If I'm not mistaken, Quong rode home a couple of boxcar winners which really shouldn't count that much when analyzing returns.
I do know that when he is either not on the lead early or way at the back early, you might as well forget about cashing with him on the front end.
Chantal is suited for the Poly. On a dirt track she is average.
Jones has had better days. When he does have a boss mount on the dirt, it is no cinch. Look at his numbers this year.
My biggest payoff came on a Win 4 where Steve Bahen rode 2 of the winners.
It doesn't mean that I'm going to put him in my top 10 because of it.

Zman179
08-19-2007, 10:06 AM
All I know is that every time I try to visit your new page, my computer freezes up.

Cangamble
08-19-2007, 10:08 AM
All I know is that every time I try to visit your new page, my computer freezes up.
That is weird. Do you use Firefox or IE?

Zman179
08-19-2007, 10:12 AM
That is weird. Do you use Firefox or IE?

Actually, I'm using an AOL browser. I just tried accessing it via IE and it came up fine.

Bad aol. Baaaaaad aol.

jotb
08-19-2007, 12:32 PM
Here it is:

http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2007/08/rating-jockeys-at-fort-erie-and.html

Richard Morrow could be an up and coming bug rider. He has only rode 2 races and hit the board once.

Joe

Cangamble
08-20-2007, 06:21 PM
As you say, it's important to know what works with your own particular style or method of handicapping.
I'm pretty much a speed handicapper who has no respect for Beyers figs. I make my own.

maxwell
08-21-2007, 03:05 AM
Clark is lucky he hooked up with Bob Tiller years ago.

Olguin surprised me by going to SoCal for the winter and doing pretty well down there.

Husbands is good enough to ride just about anywhere. I don't think his head is screwed on right, however.

I like Woodbine but I find it takes me half of the year to get into it due to the fact that too many horses don't race from Dec. to April.

andicap
08-23-2007, 04:48 AM
From the list
8. Happy Ando- Just back from an injury. Was improving before the injury.
9. Sunny Singh- Close to being considered a low ranked Woodbine jockey, he gets a lot of good mounts at the Fort from Woodbine.
10.Schemlin Montoute- Good numbers in limited tries. By appointment only.


C'mon -- these are the names of horses, right? Or aliases? "Schemlin Montute?" I mean that sounds like a Yiddish dessert. "No waitress, not the Schemlin Tofutti. The Schemlin Montute."

My best friend in high school was named Andy. His dad always called him "Ando." And he was a pretty upbeat guy. Is that you, Andy??

And Sunny Singh. Well, lets just say you have to PM me to get my take on that one.

Actually they remind me of the original names of some famous Hollywood actors. You know like Archibald Leach.


(Great job, Can -- thanks a million)

Oh yes, you've got a typo on the site. If you need to "bet" Woodbine, I presume you meant.

If I needed to "be" Woodbine? Hmm.. sounds like a Barbara Walters interview. "Andy, if you could be any racetrack in the world, which one would it be?"

"Well, Barbara, I'd like to be Woodbine."

Cangamble
08-23-2007, 08:24 AM
Thanks Andicap, I corrected my mistake. Happy, Sunny, and Schemlin sure do sound like they could be the new Three Stooges or Marx brothers:)

toetoe
08-23-2007, 02:04 PM
cj,

I guess I don't follow Chantal's career religiously, but I always thought she was excellent. She gave some great rides at Aqueduct, as I recall. :confused:

Cangamble
08-29-2007, 03:48 PM
I'm taking heat for the rankings. The jocks at Fort Erie are upset.
How come you can rate football players, baseball players, etc., but rate jockeys and their egos turn them into huge sucks?

Overlay
08-29-2007, 06:13 PM
I'm not disputing the usefulness of your insights, but to me, hard performance statistics tell the story effectively, and can more easily be incorporated into decisions on what a horse's winning chances are, whether to bet it, and, if so, how much.

I'm taking heat for the rankings. The jocks at Fort Erie are upset.

Another advantage of statistics -- harder to argue with.

Cangamble
08-29-2007, 06:17 PM
Another advantage of statistics -- harder to argue with.
I understand that, but if you take subjectiveness out of horse racing, you take out most of the fun.

Overlay
08-29-2007, 06:33 PM
I admire and envy those who can finish ahead of the game with race-specific subjective or intuitive judgments. It's just that, whenever I look at the past performances, I hear all those statistics calling my name. (Blame it on my Myers-Briggs personality type (ISTJ)!) I'm glad handicapping is such a "big tent".

Cangamble
08-29-2007, 11:49 PM
Here is an upset person over my rankings:

Anonymous said...
Why would you bother wasting time doing this? Do you get pleasure from hurting people, that is all you are doing. People at the top will be happy and all the others will be offended. What is your claim to fame?

August 29, 2007 3:21 PM
(https://www.blogger.com/delete-comment.g?blogID=22896617&postID=3703247337307921482)Cangamble (http://cangamble.blogspot.com/) said... Anon, I did it because I felt like doing it. I'm also a member of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and since blogging is all about opinion, I decided to give mine.
Why do people rate football teams or football players or hockey players? Do the Equibase jockey stats also offend jockeys too? Maybe Equibase shouldn't publish them.
I don't get any pleasure out of hurting anyone either. But damn if I'm going to walk on eggshells about what I will put on this blog.
Lets see, maybe I should take out the article link to the Baze whipping incident. I might hurt his feelings.

Like I said, maybe the jockeys on the bottom of the list have some work to do to get better. Maybe they should take this as a positive instead of letting their egos get in the way of criticism.

August 29, 2007 3:34 PM

(https://www.blogger.com/delete-comment.g?blogID=22896617&postID=1596940698688782629)Anonymous said... You're obviously not in a position where anyone can publicly criticize you and affect your career.
Equibase stats are completely irrelevant to your personal ranking, they publish statistical facts not obnoxious slanders at innocent people trying to make a living.
Russel Baze incident has no relevance to jocks rankings either. If you're going to do something like this, you should be more professional and at least have a reasonable argument when you reply.
Maybe the jocks on the bottom of the list can't get better but are trying as hard as they can. That may be good enough for them and they don't need someone's opinion hurting them any further.

August 29, 2007 9:54 PM

DeanT
08-30-2007, 01:09 AM
Oh boy, that is too funny. I have not used this little thingy since I have come on the board, but it's time.

:lol:

northerndancer
08-30-2007, 01:19 AM
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...... let me look into my crystal ball...... if Poznansky was still around he would be at the top of the list........ Chris Griffith too much class....... Robbie King too damn honest........ Jack Lauzon is possible....... Cory Clark she is just too sweet of a person........ Regina Sealock she would just whoop your ass........ Dale Hemsley too much of a pacifest.......... hmmmmmmmm leaves just one and only one Brian Bochinski.

Ignore them Cangamble if they can not take the heat get out of the kitchen...... should we just ignore when you are 10 for 183.......:lol:

Cangamble
08-30-2007, 08:13 AM
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...... let me look into my crystal ball...... if Poznansky was still around he would be at the top of the list........ Chris Griffith too much class....... Robbie King too damn honest........ Jack Lauzon is possible....... Cory Clark she is just too sweet of a person........ Regina Sealock she would just whoop your ass........ Dale Hemsley too much of a pacifest.......... hmmmmmmmm leaves just one and only one Brian Bochinski.

Ignore them Cangamble if they can not take the heat get out of the kitchen...... should we just ignore when you are 10 for 183.......:lol:
I don't know who wrote it. It could have been a spouse too. Whoever it was, the person is definitely very literate. That rules out quite a few jocks right there.

northerndancer
08-30-2007, 01:23 PM
I don't know who wrote it. It could have been a spouse too. Whoever it was, the person is definitely very literate. That rules out quite a few jocks right there.

This attack on your ability to state your opinion was done anonymously...... wow I figured that when you put 'Anonymous said' you were just being a decent guy and not calling anyone specific out....... hmmmmm maybe it was one of the jocks spouses......... I am not surprised by it being from the Fort Erie room.

Greyfox
08-30-2007, 04:40 PM
Secondly, why do jockeys get pissed off over these things?

Any public performer should be under review.
For instance, actors are subjected to critics reviews of this nature all of the time. However, there are usually several reviewers. One man might think that Richard Burton did poorly. Another reviewer might give him accolades.

Unfortunately, you are the only one in North America who is providing this type of critique of the riders. So your going to get shelled by those who don't like your opinions. Secondly, do you get upset when those jocks give your ratings a crappy review? After all they can be critics too.
Thirdly, some may be upset because you raise a new kind of threat.
A threat to their incomes perhaps if any of the owners or trainers are taking your opinions as gospel. Generally, threat raises anger and I suspect there's an element of that here to.
But you're right some can't ride very well, or at least not when I bet them. I've never cashed a ticket on one of those jocks (Regina) as I quit betting her mounts years ago.

Fastracehorse
08-30-2007, 05:21 PM
How'z she doing in total wins??

Wdb doesn't have the high % jocks like NY.

Interesting comments on Daniel David and Emille Ramsammy.

fffastt

Cangamble
08-30-2007, 10:34 PM
Emma's percent is low compared to her talent.
http://www.equibase.com/static/statistics/tracks/WO-CAN-Jockey.html

Like I said, I think she takes many obscure mounts and isn't as selective as some of the higher percentage jocks. I do think she moves horses up, at least according to the speed numbers I use.

As an apprentice last year she was often named on 2 or 3 horses a race, so her agent had lots of choice. I don't think she gets to make as many choices this year thanks to the blossoming of Ramsammy and the presence of Tyler Pizarro (the top apprentice)

cj
08-31-2007, 06:43 AM
Wdb doesn't have the high % jocks like NY.

fffastt

Unless you are talking about drivers, it is WO. ;)

byng0
08-31-2007, 04:34 PM
I read your analysis, and think you did a fine job.

I used to think a jockey was only 5 % of the horse's ability to win but as I've advanced in age, I'd give it more like 7-8 %

Thanks for your input

Greyfox
08-31-2007, 05:01 PM
I used to think a jockey was only 5 % of the horse's ability to win but as I've advanced in age, I'd give it more like 7-8 %



With respect to winning, you're probably right.
If he wants to lose though , i.e. stiff it, that per cent goes much much higher.

Then there are some riders who are just plain anchors.
Have one of them on your horse and he'll have to use an extra half furlong of energy.

46zilzal
08-31-2007, 06:44 PM
Jockeys are subject to the same, and even more hidden pressures that we all experience. Look at Jorge Chavez..good rider then falls off the map.

Riders have domestic troubles, occult injuries, family disputes, investment problems all having little to do with the track.

Often we never know why they ride unevenly.

Cangamble
08-31-2007, 09:50 PM
Jockeys are subject to the same, and even more hidden pressures that we all experience. Look at Jorge Chavez..good rider then falls off the map.

Riders have domestic troubles, occult injuries, family disputes, investment problems all having little to do with the track.

Often we never know why they ride unevenly.
Jockeys are probably more apt to have outside troubles. The backstretch is all ego. Jockeys at least used to quit school when they were 16, though that is changing a bit today. Many are in a struggle to keep their weight down and many take pills which may lead to harder drugs and addictions. Drugs are also taken for pain. There isn't a rider out there who hasn't broken a bone or 50.

What the heck is an occult injury?