Make a Case for a 20-1 shot, ML

[Suff]

I really wanted to take a Few days off and just Stretch. But after not looking at any races for about 36 hours... I was Jonesing hard to just look at one!! I just need one! So I went and got Aqu, for thursday and I looked it over.. and I see something that may be worth looking at a lil harder. I'll lay it out for the boys and I'm sure the CRACK cappers out here will rip it apart and see if it has Merit.

The horse is NY Puddles in the 1st... 20-1 Morning line

The chief angle.. and its a damn good one, is, 3rd off a layoff. And not only is that a good angle on many horses, despite history. This horse has two layoff lines in her PP's... in both examples She has WON the 3rd race after that line. and that's the race she's running Thursday... I like the horse on that angle alone.. But a couple of other items make her attractive to me.

Strength of Field.
Last out.. Jester Rehab. Come on?
No one beats Jester right now,,, Horse is the winningest MACHINE on New york circuit right now.

4 back.... Carson Hollow and Shawklit Mint? Two other NY monsters right now.

She catchs Polish silk again who she ran against in her race on Nov 20th. Ran 4th by 5. But that was her first race in 5 months. Comment says she made a nice middle move and did'nt have the punch. But, if you look way back in here PP's you'll see in Feb 02.. She beat Polish silk to Graduate the NW1 43k condition. On this TRACK.... at THIS distance!

I think on strength of fields and conditions,, you could make case that this a HUGE drop in class for this horse. Despite facing a another Filly that has beaten her recently.


Her beyers are a sticking point. they look a lil weak. probably going to take a mid 70 to win this thing. and her highest is a 69. So she'll need to pick it up... But in defense of that knock... her last three are her best 'TRI" of beyers in her life. 2 69's and a 60, after floating between 45 and 65 in her previous ten outings.

Jockey's a big negative,,, an O for 20 Dennis Carr... and nothing anyone can say can make that smell any better.


PACE... She needs a pace.. and this field is loaded with speed. And the speed is where it is best DIFFUSED.. outside.. mostly all the speed horse's in here are breaking oustide the 7 hole. so in addition to trying to get the lead.. they'll be doing it wide.. and hopefully burning a lil gas along the way.

She's 2-5 at the mile.. and her times are slower than I'd like to see. Expecting inclement weather in North East.. and her 370 Tommy and running style make her attractive in an off track as well. They're calling for 6 inch's of snow in Boston.. so Maybe NY might not even run on Thursday.. But if they do. Might want to consider NYPUDDLES at a PRICE.


and one lil knock on Polish silk,,, in addition to not being the lone speed in here, and the outside post... Horse has 3 starts on the inner with a WIN and a SHOW.. but notice the HIGH beyer on the INNER is a 64....

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Sufferindowns
The chief angle.. and its a damn good one, is, 3rd off a layoff.

I love that angle. In fact its my favorite. Especially if they are wheeling the horse back in less than 10 days. I crushed one last Saturday night at Sam Houston in the last race. 5F on the turf at 28-1 and got the tri too. Wire to Wire winner who improved tons off the 2nd back. Equisim put the horse within a length of the favorite based on the 2nd back race. I was sure he was going to improve.

[Suff]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by JustRalph
[B]I love that angle. In fact its my favorite.

Ralph, you have the 1st at Ny Past perform's? Send me an e-mail off the board and I'll send you the race so you can take a closer look at the field if you want.

[hurrikane]

I want to wish you luck Suff. I can't put my money on this dog. If for not other reason than the jock. This horse running from off the pace is going to need a skilled driver and Carr is not the one. If he get this horse through for a win I will be shocked. Not sure why he is putting him up.
He's not just 0-20, hes 23/343 7% this year. I'm guessing he works at Dominoes at night to make ends meet.

But I hope you bang him home for a nice christmas present.

[Suff]

I believe its $80.00 bucks just for getting on a horse at NY.... If you can scrounge 3 mounts you still make 240 bucks a day. Toss in the few penny's from 4 and 5th plave finishes and he makes a decent weeks pay..... for 3rd rate work. But even Dale whittaker wins once in awhile........

and perhaps your right....... But my particular approach to turning a profit at Betting Thoroughbreds requires me to wager on Trainers and Jockeys that are not 15% winners... Because those connections routinely are OVERBET and are RARELY over 5-1..... Therefore I HAVE to take "Rare occurence" as a distinct possibility in determining if I'm willing to risk a position on a horse. And in this instance..... It's a high probabilty that this horse will not win... But, they will reward me soundly if he does... So I've strung together a list reasons why it may be a "VALUE" wager....

It looks like the brunt of the Storm will be just NORTH of Queens,, so NY will probably run THURSDAY. And now,, that I've stuck my FLAG in the ground with this Horse......... I'm very anxious to see how she runs.

[cj]

sufferindowns,

I've done a lot of dumb things in my days, but trying to talk a guy off of a longshot is NOT one of them. I will talk all day about the negatives about short priced horses, but of course a 20-1 shot is going to have some. I need to see a few positives, that's all! I always tell friends, you only need to be right 1 in 20 times to make money on 20-1 shots!

CJ

[Tom]

This horse has good and bad things going for him-his performance after layoffs and a prep or tow is good, and he paid boxcars in oneoff them-this is very good. No run last time out is bad, but it will definately uip the price. Lots of horse in this field are clustered within 10 or so Beyer points, and This baby just ran a new top off the layoff-that might explain the dull race lost out.
I will use either or both of his wins as rating races and see what happens-I want a good price, though-got to pay a Visa off in a couple of weeks.
More later.

[andicap]

Suff,
Do you look at a horse has run in the past at high odds? That is, if he won before as a longshot, is he more likely to do it again?

Also, M. Pizzolla loves to bet bad jockeys and trainers (or at least those with bad records) for the same reason you give. You get great odds and to win on longshots you have to bet on something the public hates, in this instance, you'll get better odds because Dennis Carr is on the horse and not Migliore. I would say the difference could be 10 odds points at least in this instance.

The other thing is it might be very windy on Thursday and that always has a big effect at Aqueduct.

[Suff]

The more I thought about Hurrikans Jockey comments... the more I discounted them... Not because he does'nt have a point.. he does,,, and under normal circumstances he'd be 100% dead on not to bet the horse, because if the horse was LIVE.. Carr would not be on him... BUT!

Everyone is gone... Prado just got Back from Hong KONG,, Velasquez moved his TACk to Gulfstream this week... Aaron Gryder is away. and we're left with mostly the 2nd and 3rd tier guys... You get Two Bugs.. and lopez and smith , who don;t exactly get many mounts in NY. so I think if the top guys were here.. you'd see Gryder on this horse,,, but scince those guys are the ONLY show in town right now,, and and the HOT hands are on the Favorites... I think we got CARR from Default... and I'm not defending the guy.. But this aint Penn national.. In NEW YORK,,, everyone who gets on a horse.. knows how to ride. This is the big leagues.... the 3rd tier guys are the ALLSTARS from the other tracks..

I looked the card over... If your not willing to bet poor % Jocks .. then your limited in Ny on Thursday,,, Because you got RAMOS.. Pimnatel ,Fuentes, Toscano and CARR and others on some pretty fair horses...

There is one other horse I like Thursday,,, and its a good OMEN... Cuz it was a $55.00 dollar winner I gave away on this very board in November.... Wills Gal in the 7th... Cutting back Route to Sprint.. will be a Price,, will improve 2nd against winners.. gets back to what will be her MONEY distance,.. this one's a KEEEPER and gonna be a Stakes quality Sprinter next year or year after,,, look who she faced first against winners last out.. ARABIS amd CHASE GAP... two horses that the PICK4 contest Guys will attest are REAL... Very real... Wils gal in the 7th... BANK IT!

Andi... The problem with Betting Horse's at Double Digits,, is you may only get them ONCE in thier lives at DOUBLE digits... Remember that 30-1 shot that won the Finale at NY on Saturday.. horse was SUPER CHALK in almost everyone of his starts.. and unless he CLASS jumps.. the secret is out on him.. thet he can fire off a rest... so no MORE will you ever see that horse come off the bench at 30-1... Thats the most difficult thing for a Player like me.. is I follow a horse.. I think I like the horse... I'm ready to go with the horse.,.. and he runs MID-WEEK.. wins at Boxcars or is part of a Big TRI... and I worked Overtime or was busy and I missed the play... that's why,, lately.. I have been sharing my Horse watches by e-mail with some guys out here,,, In the hopes they will have him or better yet.. REMIND ME!!! "SUFF.. that horse you told me about is going Tommmorow"................I'm an angle player.. I have the bankroll to support my style of play.. I can play a 40-1 shot 20wp... key him on a $60.00 pik3 play.. and watch him run DEAD LAST... I have the $$ to fiddle with...Don;t get me wrong.. I'll Play a horse that I think will win at 2-1 all day... but... I play what I think is the best value bet for me...... and when I have a 30-1 shot roaring down the stretch like I did on Saturday.. its $$$$ signs just exploding in my head... I hit two races on Saturday.. the 1st and the last.. and I made a slight profit... I just stuck with what works for me.... and lately... over the last two years or so,,, I've had some Remarkable scores.

[Rpd]

Suff....

Your last post and the one that started the thread.......very impressive analysis..........

The RPD stands for research......probability.......decision.......... you have done all three exceptionally well.


Stephen
(Rpd)

[Tom]

RPD,
Love that avatar..would make a really neat emblem for a jacket or shirt. You gotta feel like a winner if you wear that to the track.

[Suff]

Thanks RPD.... its good.. but it's excellent if she wins correct? lol

damn I hope she runs... But they Just Closed JFK and la Guardia because of the storm and that aint a good sign.

[Rpd]

Tom - thanks, it took a long time to find just the right one........I just spoke to family in Victor....you must have been shoveling all day. I have relatives in Syracuse and near Albany so it's worse as you go east. That is about the only thing I don't miss about NY

Suff - right or wrong, I believe your approach is right on. I don't wish you good luck, you make your own by your hard work.


Stephen
(RPD)

[WINMANWIN]

The storm has passed In N.Y.C as of 11:45 pm. I would be very surprised, If not shocked If the aque card is cancelled today.In fact, I'm expecting a good track also. Good Luck !

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Sufferindowns
[QUOTE]Originally posted by JustRalph
[B]I love that angle. In fact its my favorite.

Ralph, you have the 1st at Ny Past perform's? Send me an e-mail off the board and I'll send you the race so you can take a closer look at the field if you want.

I just downloaded them. I saw your post that you were going down to the track....Good Luck!

[Suff]

Weather:SUNNY 34
Track Condition: MUDDY
Turf Condition: NO TURF
Turf Races: NONE
Carryover: $57,900 (TAKEOUT 25%)
NOTES:


Scratches
Race Horse Number Horse Name
1 12 DREAMY DREAM
1 13 LIVEITUPNOW
1 2 LIL LINZER
1 8 LET'S PUN T
1 9 POLISH SILK
2 1A ALLISONS SMILE
3 6 LAUREN'S HOT DANCE
4 10 CAJUN CONCERT
4 2 BOGART
5 2 PRINCESS KRISTA
5 7 MAJESTIC GIRL
6 1 (POE) ELUSIVE PRINCESS
6 11 NOT MY FAULT
6 13 RECHERCHE
6 2B EDGE SWEEP
6 8 MEETMEONTIME
6 9 NEERD
7 10 CLASSOFHEROWN
8 4 SAY FLORIDA SANDY
9 12 JAZZ PRO
9 1A POUNDING
9 2 BABY SHAQ\
9 2B GOAL LINE
9 3 (POE) BLAZING COLORS
9 7 YOU KNOW WHO
9 9 ITALIAN PRIDE


I'm heading out the door,,, checked the live tote.. she opened at 18-1

[WINMANWIN]

After viewing the opening odds, N.y. puddles was over 20 to 1.
with 37 mins to post she now is 7 to 1.The longest shot on the board is EARTH SHAKER AT 16 TO 1 CURRENTLY. I dont know why this horse is so high,Earth Shaker is dropping in class,and prefers the wet going,As the track is labeled muddy.I must include, This filly In my Gimmick plays, In todays first !

[WINMANWIN]

AQUEDUCT cancelled there card. After racing secy reported they would race.