finding "vulnerability" among favorites

[1st time lasix]

Many times the key to unlocking an overlay win or exotic ticket is identifying when you believe a low odds entry is vulnerable. Taking dead aim against a horse with solid handicapping justification for weakness. So what are some of the identification keys to this vulnerability based on your experience? A horse that is suspect due to today's pace scenario? Today's change in distance? Today's surface? Today's class level? Today's post position? Maybe the horse is getting too much money based on past reputation. What about the many "bounce" characteristics off a recent race. What about layoffs and interim works? What about trainer intent with stake winners in preps? What do you look for when you elect to toss?????

[RaceBookJoe]

This is kind of being talked about in another forum in regards to throwing out a favorite especially if he is in the last leg of a p3 or 3rd leg of p4 for example. In the other forum ther is talk of handicapping backwards in terms of races. If you can find a fav to toss you might be onto a nice price since most people do it the other way and stick the ml fav on the ticket.
As far as handicapping to toss that fav, any of your choices can work, obviously every race is different...one race might be speed, next distance etc that sets the fav up for a loss. My way is always the same, not that it is always succesful....look for the best horse (taking in all factors ) and if you dont like the price dont play. We all know that the ml fav and betting fav are not always the best horse. Kind of an elementary response to you but thats my way.

[Overlay]

I think vulnerability can be a matter of the favorite's odds, aside from the record of the horse itself. The horse may not have any glaring weaknesses in its performance, but the public either overvalues its strengths or undervalues the positive aspects of other horses in the field, and sends the favorite off at odds that are lower than they should be.

Working with quantitative probability data for various performance characteristics helps me in that regard by assigning a defined likelihood of winning to each horse; helping to maintain an objective orientation; allowing consideration/visibility of the winning possibilities of all the horses in a field; and keeping me from getting oversold about any particular horse, no matter how strong it might appear.

[Jeff P]

Many times the key to unlocking an overlay win or exotic ticket is identifying when you believe a low odds entry is vulnerable. Taking dead aim against a horse with solid handicapping justification for weakness. So what are some of the identification keys to this vulnerability based on your experience? A horse that is suspect due to today's pace scenario? Today's change in distance? Today's surface? Today's class level? Today's post position? Maybe the horse is getting too much money based on past reputation. What about the many "bounce" characteristics off a recent race. What about layoffs and interim works? What about trainer intent with stake winners in preps? What do you look for when you elect to toss?????ALL of those (and more) are relevant reasons to view a favorite as vulnerable.

I've had a lot of success using software generated power ratings to accurately and at a glance classify post time favorites as weak, normal, or strong.

There is a strong correlation between JPR numeric value and the win rate and roi of post time favorites. The following chart shows all post time favorites in my calendar year 2006 database broken out by JPR numeric value:
Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: D:\2007\Q1_2007\pl_Favorites_1_2006.txt


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 43138.30 45695.60 45472.70
Bet -52064.00 -52064.00 -52064.00
Gain -8925.70 -6368.40 -6591.30

Wins 9103 14481 17671
Plays 26032 26032 26032
PCT .3497 .5563 .6788

ROI 0.8286 0.8777 0.8734
Avg Mut 4.74 3.16 2.57

2006 Favorites by: JPR Numeric Value

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
20.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
25.00 30.00 8.20 10.00 1.8200 2 5 .4000 1.1439
30.00 35.00 -40.00 54.00 0.2593 2 27 .0741 0.2118
35.00 40.00 -106.50 216.00 0.5069 18 108 .1667 0.4766
40.00 45.00 -167.70 604.00 0.7224 72 302 .2384 0.6818
45.00 50.00 -361.20 1312.00 0.7247 163 656 .2485 0.7106
50.00 55.00 -827.80 2634.00 0.6857 309 1317 .2346 0.6710
55.00 60.00 -1182.80 4938.00 0.7605 690 2469 .2795 0.7992
60.00 65.00 -1604.10 7042.00 0.7722 1047 3521 .2974 0.8504

65.00 70.00 -1645.70 8452.00 0.8053 1354 4226 .3204 0.9162
70.00 75.00 -1077.20 8626.00 0.8751 1597 4313 .3703 1.0589
75.00 80.00 -966.00 7822.00 0.8765 1542 3911 .3943 1.1275

80.00 85.00 -564.80 6000.00 0.9059 1290 3000 .4300 1.2297
85.00 90.00 -312.20 3474.00 0.9101 798 1737 .4594 1.3138
90.00 95.00 -77.80 848.00 0.9083 210 424 .4953 1.4164
95.00 100.00 -0.10 32.00 0.9969 9 16 .5625 1.6086
100.00 105.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
105.00 999999.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000

Weak Post Time Favorite –red text – JPR of the post time favorite is below 65. The favorite wins less than 30 percent of the time. Take a stand against.

Normal Post Time Favorite –brown text – JPR of the post time favorite is 65 or higher but less than 80. The favorite wins between 32 and 39 percent of the time.

Strong Post Time Favorite –blue text – JPR of the post time favorite is 80 or higher. The favorite wins more than 40 percent of the time.

I'm thinking most good software out there has something in it that will let you do something similar. The key for me is to be able to classify favorites at a glance and with accuracy.

If you are a Bris customer - you can do the same thing - with less accuracy - using Prime Power rank.


2006 Favorites by: Prime Power Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -4096.00 30426.00 0.8654 5961 15213 .3918 1.1205
2 -2076.80 10620.00 0.8044 1665 5310 .3136 0.8967
3 -948.90 4896.00 0.8062 711 2448 .2904 0.8306
4 -720.80 2634.00 0.7263 348 1317 .2642 0.7556
5 -417.70 1416.00 0.7050 177 708 .2500 0.7149
6 -243.00 906.00 0.7318 112 453 .2472 0.7070
7 -91.20 460.00 0.8017 64 230 .2783 0.7957
8 -178.30 376.00 0.5258 34 188 .1809 0.5172
9 -35.20 162.00 0.7827 22 81 .2716 0.7767
10 -69.40 96.00 0.2771 5 48 .1042 0.2979
11 -22.80 40.00 0.4300 3 20 .1500 0.4290
12 -20.00 20.00 0.0000 0 10 .0000 0.0000
13 -3.60 10.00 0.6400 1 5 .2000 0.5719
14+ -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000

2006 Favorites by: JPR Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -3003.00 25358.00 0.8816 5069 12679 .3998 1.1433
2 -1954.90 11884.00 0.8355 2028 5942 .3413 0.9760
3 -1418.40 6210.00 0.7716 925 3105 .2979 0.8519
4 -989.60 3712.00 0.7334 502 1856 .2705 0.7735
5 -631.70 2214.00 0.7147 282 1107 .2547 0.7285
6 -463.60 1320.00 0.6488 153 660 .2318 0.6629
7 -185.90 676.00 0.7250 80 338 .2367 0.6769
8 -120.50 382.00 0.6846 43 191 .2251 0.6438
9 -98.90 188.00 0.4739 13 94 .1383 0.3955
10 -32.00 84.00 0.6190 7 42 .1667 0.4766
11 -17.20 26.00 0.3385 1 13 .0769 0.2200
12 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
13+ -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000



-jp

.

[DeanT]

How much varaince do you see, if any, from track to track with that Jeff?

[Jeff P]

Never really thought of that before. In my own live play I use it as kind of an accepted (by me) constant to classify the favorite without a thought to whether doing it on a track to track basis might matter.

So obviously yours is a really interesting question.

Just ran a handful of tracks and here's what I have:

APX 2006 Favorites by: JPR Numeric Value

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
20.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
25.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
30.00 35.00 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
35.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
40.00 45.00 1.00 6.00 1.1667 1 3 .3333 0.9619
45.00 50.00 10.20 18.00 1.5667 5 9 .5556 1.6031
50.00 55.00 -43.40 66.00 0.3424 5 33 .1515 0.4372
55.00 60.00 -31.60 120.00 0.7367 17 60 .2833 0.8176
60.00 65.00 -28.60 210.00 0.8638 33 105 .3143 0.9069
65.00 70.00 -56.80 268.00 0.7881 41 134 .3060 0.8829
70.00 75.00 -43.80 282.00 0.8447 51 141 .3617 1.0437
75.00 80.00 -51.80 254.00 0.7961 46 127 .3622 1.0452
80.00 85.00 -25.20 198.00 0.8727 39 99 .3939 1.1368
85.00 90.00 -9.60 116.00 0.9172 28 58 .4828 1.3931
90.00 95.00 -7.60 24.00 0.6833 5 12 .4167 1.2023
95.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
100.00 105.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
105.00 999999.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000

AQU 2006 Favorites by: JPR Numeric Value

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
20.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
25.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
30.00 35.00 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
35.00 40.00 -9.40 16.00 0.4125 1 8 .1250 0.3576
40.00 45.00 -7.20 26.00 0.7231 4 13 .3077 0.8803
45.00 50.00 -20.80 52.00 0.6000 5 26 .1923 0.5502
50.00 55.00 -24.90 110.00 0.7736 13 55 .2364 0.6763
55.00 60.00 -73.90 232.00 0.6815 30 116 .2586 0.7399
60.00 65.00 -88.10 266.00 0.6688 35 133 .2632 0.7529
65.00 70.00 -117.40 316.00 0.6285 39 158 .2468 0.7062
70.00 75.00 10.50 378.00 1.0278 79 189 .4180 1.1959
75.00 80.00 -25.10 298.00 0.9158 61 149 .4094 1.1713
80.00 85.00 -14.50 290.00 0.9500 64 145 .4414 1.2628
85.00 90.00 -5.80 202.00 0.9713 49 101 .4851 1.3881
90.00 95.00 -12.80 74.00 0.8270 15 37 .4054 1.1599
95.00 100.00 0.50 4.00 1.1250 1 2 .5000 1.4306
100.00 105.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
105.00 999999.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000

BEL 2006 Favorites by: JPR Numeric Value

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
20.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
25.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
30.00 35.00 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
35.00 40.00 -10.30 16.00 0.3562 1 8 .1250 0.3770
40.00 45.00 -8.10 14.00 0.4214 1 7 .1429 0.4309
45.00 50.00 -30.90 38.00 0.1868 1 19 .0526 0.1588
50.00 55.00 -31.10 62.00 0.4984 5 31 .1613 0.4865
55.00 60.00 -43.40 144.00 0.6986 18 72 .2500 0.7541
60.00 65.00 -58.70 210.00 0.7205 30 105 .2857 0.8618
65.00 70.00 -28.60 226.00 0.8735 37 113 .3274 0.9877
70.00 75.00 -74.60 266.00 0.7195 41 133 .3083 0.9299
75.00 80.00 -44.30 212.00 0.7910 37 106 .3491 1.0529
80.00 85.00 5.30 132.00 1.0402 32 66 .4848 1.4625
85.00 90.00 22.40 118.00 1.1898 34 59 .5763 1.7383
90.00 95.00 -7.90 32.00 0.7531 7 16 .4375 1.3197
95.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
100.00 105.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
105.00 999999.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
CDX 2006 Favorites by: JPR Numeric Value

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
20.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
25.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
30.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
35.00 40.00 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000
40.00 45.00 11.00 8.00 2.3750 3 4 .7500 2.1850
45.00 50.00 -26.00 46.00 0.4348 3 23 .1304 0.3800
50.00 55.00 -32.80 78.00 0.5795 8 39 .2051 0.5976
55.00 60.00 -56.00 194.00 0.7113 26 97 .2680 0.7809
60.00 65.00 -66.40 208.00 0.6808 26 104 .2500 0.7283
65.00 70.00 -57.20 268.00 0.7866 41 134 .3060 0.8914
70.00 75.00 -30.20 262.00 0.8847 47 131 .3588 1.0453
75.00 80.00 33.00 244.00 1.1352 55 122 .4508 1.3134
80.00 85.00 -15.60 160.00 0.9025 34 80 .4250 1.2382
85.00 90.00 -5.00 112.00 0.9554 27 56 .4821 1.4047
90.00 95.00 -4.40 26.00 0.8308 7 13 .5385 1.5687
95.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
100.00 105.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
105.00 999999.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000

And obviously there IS some variance from track to track.

-jp

.

[Pace Cap'n]

These are always interesting discussions, as I am always looking to play against the fave.

A couple of previous discussions of this topic on the board may be found at...

www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=13191 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=13191&highlight=false+favorite)

www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4143 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4143&highlight=false+favorite)

[pandy]

There was a prime bounce prospect chalk today at Del Mar, Toy's Toy in the 1st. I bet two longshot firsters and cashed on Ask Sam at $27.60. Toy's Toy came off a 9 month layoff two weeks ago and missed by a nose in career best effort, earning big figure. What was weird, they added blinkers today which made no sense because Toy's Toy fought tooth and nail last time obviously was trying harder as he saw his competition closing in. Adding blinkers and blocking his vision off a game narrow miss like that is just bad training. Interesting thing about Ask Sam, he is by Cryptoclearance, who is thought to be a route sire, but Cryptoclearance won his debut by 12 lengths sprinting at Saratoga and is actually by speed influence Fappiano. Ask Sam's dosage index was 3.67, not a classic stamina pedigree, although I think he'll love two turns. Cryptoclearance was taught to rate and finish by Scotty Schulhofer, the great Hall of Fame trainer, and O'Neill will do the same for Ask Sam.

[DeanT]

Thanks Jeff.

I am a bit surprised that things are not as smooth as I would have thought, but then again I guess it is only one year data.

I have a couple goofy theories on some of this stuff, but I will wait to get some data files in before I make a total fool of myself :D

[nobeyerspls]

Many times the key to unlocking an overlay win or exotic ticket is identifying when you believe a low odds entry is vulnerable. Taking dead aim against a horse with solid handicapping justification for weakness. So what are some of the identification keys to this vulnerability based on your experience? A horse that is suspect due to today's pace scenario? Today's change in distance? Today's surface? Today's class level? Today's post position? Maybe the horse is getting too much money based on past reputation. What about the many "bounce" characteristics off a recent race. What about layoffs and interim works? What about trainer intent with stake winners in preps? What do you look for when you elect to toss?????

When an otherwise very nice horse is asked to do something he hasn't done before he becomes vulnerable. I tossed a 3/5 maiden in a two turn race earlier this year because he wasn't bred for the distance and this was his first attempt at it. His odds were a function of his beyers as his last two were well above the others' highest. He opened a big lead until the top of the stretch and then all but one horse went past him. Great exacta and nice trifecta.

Another key is the start of the 3yo campaign for horses that performed well at two. Even some that were decent stakes performers find themselves up against stiffer competition from a larger pool of competitors. Their precocity helped them before and now it provides no advantage.

[nobeyerspls]

ALL of those (and more) are relevant reasons to view a favorite as vulnerable.

I've had a lot of success using software generated power ratings to accurately and at a glance classify post time favorites as weak, normal, or strong.

-jp

.

Please answer a question from a low-tech guy in a high-tech world. In your red, brown, and blue tables all the numbers in the roi column are below 1.00. Is 1.00 break even? Does this mean that no matter what the power number is the bet lost money?

[Jeff P]

Please answer a question from a low-tech guy in a high-tech world. In your red, brown, and blue tables all the numbers in the roi column are below 1.00. Is 1.00 break even? Does this mean that no matter what the power number is the bet lost money?Yes, 1.00 is break even. The charts show what happens when you place a flat $2.00 win bet on all post time favorites throughout different ranges of JPR. Despite the fact that you lose money flat betting post time favorites (with no further handicapping whatsoever) the info in the charts is extremely useful to me.

During live play I know the strength of the favorite at a glance (and with a fair degree of accuracy.)

This helps decide which races to play. As a general rule I bet horses other than the favorite. Passing races with strong favorites and focusing on races with weak favorites helps the bottom line.

Knowing how strong the favorite is also helps decide how many horses deep to go in the exotics. For example, if the race at hand has a weak favorite, I'll include more horses from that race on a pick-4 ticket than I would if that same race had a strong favorite.


-jp

.

[betchatoo]

Just to add to what Jeff was saying, I am a long time, satisfied user of JCapper and think its ability to show me vulnerable favorites is among its most powerful attributes. I developed 4 UDM's specifically designed to point out false morning line favorites (I play mostly pick 3's and 4's and if you can eliminate the ML favorite it's a big help to finding a big payoff).
Since the middle of May I have just short of 17,000 races in my database. In these the morning line favorite is winning at 31%. However, when my program identifies a false favorite it is winning at 15%. And this is not just a rare occurrence. I average about 1 per track per day.

Every bit as interesting to me is the fact that overall favorites in my database are winning at 35.3%. The favorites picked out in my UDM's win at just over 22%.

I am sure that other programs have their own ways of finding bad favorites (I know CJ does with his figures).

[thelyingthief]

too often, the vulnerability of a favorite is an invitation to lose money: not only is the favorite inherently weak, but the field surrounding him is a chaos, too. a general approach to carding races is to match similars to similars, so noting how a favorite is or is not an ideal candidate is an empty observation. i hear echoes of fabricand, don't i?

i have found that, although i may have a very strong opinion about the strength of the favorite, that is not enough. i must also have a pronounced opinion about a specific contender in the race, or i don't do so well. to reiterate, the "weakness" of a favorite is often immaterial, since in many instances all the other contenders have equally glaring questions on their form or ability, and taking a stance on one three-legged beast against another three-legged beast is an iffy proposition at best.

i question these blanket "aha's" upon which many bettors base their wagerings: as it is in politics, the pseudo-rationality of arguing from plausibility is a plague to handicapping..

i would even dare say, that handicappers who proceed in their analysis by reference to the odds of a contender, either morning line or tote-board, have subjected themselves to a prejudice; and the net effect of prejudice in analysis is invariably deteriorating bankroll.

tlt

[betchatoo]

My bankroll is in good shape (thanks for your concern). I do not blindly bet all races where there is a vulnerable favorite, but it is a great starting point. The work I do also includes logical reasons for selecting contenders. If you can find just one race where you are sure the favorite will run out in a pick 4 it can lead to a super payoff. And, if I have solid picks in other races, I am not opposed to using 7-8 horses in a chaos race

[Maji]

When an otherwise very nice horse is asked to do something he hasn't done before he becomes vulnerable. I tossed a 3/5 maiden in a two turn race earlier this year because he wasn't bred for the distance and this was his first attempt at it. His odds were a function of his beyers as his last two were well above the others' highest. He opened a big lead until the top of the stretch and then all but one horse went past him. Great exacta and nice trifecta.

Another key is the start of the 3yo campaign for horses that performed well at two. Even some that were decent stakes performers find themselves up against stiffer competition from a larger pool of competitors. Their precocity helped them before and now it provides no advantage.

Nobeyers, now I see why you chose that id :)

I think the speed figures are the most blindly overused and hence blunt instruments in handicapping.

[1st time lasix]

I think the speed figures are the most blindly overused and hence blunt instruments in handicapping.[/QUOTE] Of course any instrument "blindly overused" in a vacuum is a poor method for handicapping. {including trainer angle, layoff angle, equipment change, jockey up, pace, class} In that context I agree.....however.....the speed figs {either Beyer or other} are invaluable instrument used correctly. They help eliminate non contenders in less time more easily. That give you a feel for how the horse performed in recent starts when finishing mid pack etc. I allows a frame of reference for shippers. It gives you a sense of form cycle. Very imperfect but useful just the same. To each his own. Good luck this weekend!

[RaceBookJoe]

I dont doubt that speed figures are blindly overused. I actually remember using my own speed figures blindly and getting great odds that nowadays I am happy to get 2-1. To me when evaluating the favorite, and I believe the favorite should always be evaluated, if he is the top "figure" horse wheter by speed, pace, class etc then I usually do not try to beat him...I will either play him straight up or in a small exacta combination or happily pass the race. It is when the favorite is not on top figure wise when I start to get a grin on my face.

[ddog]

"i have found that, although i may have a very strong opinion about the strength of the favorite, that is not enough. i must also have a pronounced opinion about a specific contender in the race, or i don't do so well. to reiterate, the "weakness" of a favorite is often immaterial, since in many instances all the other contenders have equally glaring questions on their form or ability, and taking a stance on one three-legged beast against another three-legged beast is an iffy proposition at best"


I agree with this , I think, but it depends on what you are trying to cash once you see the bad fav doesn't it?
If you want to use another horse in that race for straight wagering then you need a strong opinion on that other horse and/or huge edge.
If however, you are wanting to play exotics in the race with the bad fav, then to me you don't need strong opinions, but you must cash.
It's building a series of bets with small positives on another horse or two or three in that race.
Then you need a way to wager to max your return if you are right and I stress DO NOT MISS CASHING THAT RACE.

As to paying attention to the odds, i look at it as how much of the exotic pools I can eliminate with the horses I don't think can be on the ticket.
Depending on the track and type of pool/bet/race then I construct the tickets using a kind of group or field odds of what is left.
That tells me how much/many combinations to put into the race.

For me,if I can't see em I can't bet em. Really limits me to single race at a time.

I have always been impressed with players that string a bunch of races together to cash the pk3 or pk4 not to mention pk6.

[nobeyerspls]

I think the speed figures are the most blindly overused and hence blunt instruments in handicapping. Of course any instrument "blindly overused" in a vacuum is a poor method for handicapping. {including trainer angle, layoff angle, equipment change, jockey up, pace, class} In that context I agree.....however.....the speed figs {either Beyer or other} are invaluable instrument used correctly. They help eliminate non contenders in less time more easily. That give you a feel for how the horse performed in recent starts when finishing mid pack etc. I allows a frame of reference for shippers. It gives you a sense of form cycle. Very imperfect but useful just the same. To each his own. Good luck this weekend![/QUOTE]

I've seen people use them to eliminate non-contenders like they did in the Dancin Renee stakes for fillies early in the meet. The #5 horse, Precise Lady, had the lowest high beyer on the page and was coming off a win that was assigned a 68. One in the field ran a 92 and others were well into the 80's. She won and paid $35. Before the beyer speed figures were in the form, this filly's recent win at 7f would have made her somewhere around 8-1.
Get ahold of the print copy of the form and look for horses that won at 15-1 or more. Their highest figure will be for that win and the three or four preceeding will be quite low. Do the same for favorites that lose at even money or lower. Their low number will document the loss and the prior figures will be much higher.
I'm glad that they are in the form because they lead my wagering opponents astray. Quite simply, they are bad science but amusing art.

[nobeyerspls]

I dont doubt that speed figures are blindly overused. I actually remember using my own speed figures blindly and getting great odds that nowadays I am happy to get 2-1. To me when evaluating the favorite, and I believe the favorite should always be evaluated, if he is the top "figure" horse wheter by speed, pace, class etc then I usually do not try to beat him...I will either play him straight up or in a small exacta combination or happily pass the race. It is when the favorite is not on top figure wise when I start to get a grin on my face.

The most defintive study that I have seen shows that, on average, the winner improves his beyer speed figure by nine points. That might account for so many last-race high figure horses losing at low odds.
The figures attempt to document a performance but they don't predict the next one.

[losealot]

Thanks for the very interesting stats! One thing I don't understand...are the JPR's absolutes or relative to the other horses in the field...and/or relative to the other horses at that track?

If absolutes, doesn't that mean that I'll find a lot more high JPR's at the top tracks but far fewer at the minor tracks? Yet favorites win at the minor tracks at about the same percentage as major tracks...

What am I missing? Your help would be greatly appreciated, Jeff!

Also, Jeff, do you happen to know if the Prime Powers are absolutes or relative? That is, would horse Losealot have a prime power today in the 3rd race at Loser's Downs of say, 130, regardless of the strength of his opponents in that race? Many thanks!

[cj]

Here is one that I use. Using my own figures, if a favorites last race on the same surface as today doesn't rank him in the top 3, he is a very poor bet.

In the past 15 months, these are the results:
Runners Winners WinPct AvgPay ROI
7674 1947 25.37% $5.38 68.24%

That is all favorites. Here are those less than even money:

Runners Winners WinPct AvgPay ROI
735 261 35.51% $3.41 60.62%

I can't speak to other figures, but I suspect they would underperform as well.

[john del riccio]

Here is one that I use. Using my own figures, if a favorites last race on the same surface as today doesn't rank him in the top 3, he is a very poor bet.

In the past 15 months, these are the results:
Runners Winners WinPct AvgPay ROI
7674 1947 25.37% $5.38 68.24%

That is all favorites. Here are those less than even money:

Runners Winners WinPct AvgPay ROI
735 261 35.51% $3.41 60.62%

I can't speak to other figures, but I suspect they would underperform as well.

can you add "within a 1/2f of todays distance" to your query ?

john

[cj]

I can't at this time, though I'm working to remedy that soon.

[john del riccio]

I can't at this time, though I'm working to remedy that soon.

thanks anyway.

john

[cj]

thanks anyway.

john

What, doubling the loss on a pretty big group of odds on faves isn't enough? :D

[john del riccio]

What, doubling the loss on a pretty big group of odds on faves isn't enough? :D

call me a perfectionist, but i think comparing races where the distance is more than a 1/16 of a mile different is asking for trouble sometimes. look at all the horses that run holes in the wind going 6f that get bet off th eboard going 76f and get hit in their heads with a brick at the 1/8 pole.....

john

[Jeff P]

JPR question for Jeff

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks for the very interesting stats! One thing I don't understand...are the JPR's absolutes or relative to the other horses in the field...and/or relative to the other horses at that track?

If absolutes, doesn't that mean that I'll find a lot more high JPR's at the top tracks but far fewer at the minor tracks? Yet favorites win at the minor tracks at about the same percentage as major tracks...

What am I missing? Your help would be greatly appreciated, Jeff!

Also, Jeff, do you happen to know if the Prime Powers are absolutes or relative? That is, would horse Losealot have a prime power today in the 3rd race at Loser's Downs of say, 130, regardless of the strength of his opponents in that race? Many thanks!JPR is a comparison of every horse in a given field relative to each other. JPR exists on a scale of 0-100. A horse that stacks up really well against today's field might get a score of 95. Take that same horse and put it in against a tougher field and its JPR might well drop to 75.

Prime Power - and this is my opinion because I've never seen the algorithm that creates it - is more of an absolute. I say this because whenever I run data queries (for example favorites broken out by Prime Power numeric value) I don't see the type of clean orderly curve I do when that same group of horses (favorites) is broken out by a factor generated by an algorithm where the result is arrived at comparing the horses in a field relative to each other.

Hope I explained that in a way that makes sense.


-jp

.

[Good4Now]

some would say.

From a trainer reference I look for;

1. Claimed out of last race by lower % trainer from higher % trainer

2. A high % trainer being bet BUT the horse has not produced for the trainer

I often see type 2 horses at Philadelphia in those terrible looking kind of races, non-winners of two or three or in six months. You will have a trainer with a high win % yet the horse has been in his barn and the horses % is completely out of line with the trainers.

Usually the type 1 horse is raced right back after the claim probably most often less than eighteen days.

[losealot]

Thank you, Jeff! You cleared up the JPR's for me nicely.

Just my opinion but I don't think the Prime Powers are absolutes but they're not as relative as the JPR's which accounts for the JPR's being better.

For months, I've intended to pin down my Prime Power question. Haven't gotten around to it. One way would be to simply note the Prime Power figs of scratched horses...put those scratches into DRF's Watch Mail...when they're next entered, see if their figs have changed. Of course, if the horse has laid off several months in the meantime, I would expect the Prime Power fig to reflect that.

I'd also compare only those coming back at the same track, distance, surface.

Perhaps someone's already done the above.

[Robert Fischer]

I look at the "fan favorites" with a critical eye. The horse that won in a decent race and everyone was going bananas over him. If he is weak I watch and wait. If I am lucky he is entered in a race that will expose him. The last big one was commentator in the race with awesome twist and high finance. They had DRF articles and everything it was a joke

[Good4Now]

the byline boys are touting us on animals with LESS than the real GOODS?

Who'd a thunk!

[hdcper]

Losealot,

I tried to post the past performance for Cowtown Cat, when he was entered in both the Wood and Illinois Derby on April 7th with no success. Anyway, the Prime Power number was basically the same, 138.22 and 138.23 respectively.

Thought it might clear up your question,

Hdcper

[losealot]

Thank you, Hdcper, for still another and better way to compare apples to apples.

Look in the aplhabetiized entries...find a horse entered in two races...list his Prime Power numbers. A few pairs like yours should nail this down once and for all.

Why a horse's Prime Power isn't affected by his opposition, distance, etc. is a mystery to me and a flaw in the Prime Power number. One big reason why Jeff's JPR's are stronger.

Thanks again!

[cnollfan]

too often, the vulnerability of a favorite is an invitation to lose money: not only is the favorite inherently weak, but the field surrounding him is a chaos, too. a general approach to carding races is to match similars to similars, so noting how a favorite is or is not an ideal candidate is an empty observation. i hear echoes of fabricand, don't i?

i have found that, although i may have a very strong opinion about the strength of the favorite, that is not enough. i must also have a pronounced opinion about a specific contender in the race, or i don't do so well. to reiterate, the "weakness" of a favorite is often immaterial, since in many instances all the other contenders have equally glaring questions on their form or ability, and taking a stance on one three-legged beast against another three-legged beast is an iffy proposition at best.

i question these blanket "aha's" upon which many bettors base their wagerings: as it is in politics, the pseudo-rationality of arguing from plausibility is a plague to handicapping..

i would even dare say, that handicappers who proceed in their analysis by reference to the odds of a contender, either morning line or tote-board, have subjected themselves to a prejudice; and the net effect of prejudice in analysis is invariably deteriorating bankroll.

tlt

In the book Horse Racing Logic, author Glendon Jones says that if the favorite is vulnerable, the horse that is most likely underbet is the second favorite, and vice versa. Jones said something to the effect that he confidently bets on second favorites he has no opinion about, good or bad, as long as he has a strong negative opinion about the favorite.

[pandy]

Good point. With your figures, have you identified a range for bad bets? For instance, say your par is 90 for a race, at some point below par the chances of a horse winning becomes substantially lower. Have you found this to be true? In other words, horses within a range of 10 points of par, 80-90 will probably win a high percentage.

[john del riccio]

Good point. With your figures, have you identified a range for bad bets? For instance, say your par is 90 for a race, at some point below par the chances of a horse winning becomes substantially lower. Have you found this to be true? In other words, horses within a range of 10 points of par, 80-90 will probably win a high percentage.

PAR is a falacy, it varies depending on the horses in todays race.

john

[Tom]

Good point. With your figures, have you identified a range for bad bets? For instance, say your par is 90 for a race, at some point below par the chances of a horse winning becomes substantially lower. Have you found this to be true? In other words, horses within a range of 10 points of par, 80-90 will probably win a high percentage.

I have found that using a par range is very useful. I have set up pars like 85-89-93 for a class. Typically, most races (60%) fall within 85-93 points. Over 93 is a fast race, under 85 is a slow race. I use it to evaluate races horses come out of more than anything else. The farther away from par, the less liley a horse is to win. If everyting in a race is in the slow end of the rang,e I know I have a suspect race. that $25K claimer might be filled with $10K horses. I like this way much better than a single point par - of which half of the horses whould fail to meet anyways.
I left the data tell me where the boundaries are. the bottom 20% and top 20% area the extremes, the middle 60% the average.

[pandy]

Not necessarily traditional par times, but projection times for each individual race.

[john del riccio]

I have found that using a par range is very useful

BINGO !

John

[1st time lasix]

The comprehensive handicapping process requires you to evaluate all the horses entered....formulate your own opinions based on past experience using any or all tools you choose to incorporate into that process. You then have a intuitive "feel" for who may run well and outrun the odds/tote proposition in front of you. I still think an exotic player with a bet small....win big philosophy..... must spend additional time on the public odds-on choices with a critical detective eye. Is the chalk vulnerable for any sound handicapping reason??? How about that 2nd or 3rd choice? If so....how do you structure your tickets and in what pool do you dive? If not....is there still an exotic paramutual play either vertically or horizontally that will overpay? The flip side of that is that I also believe you must look at longer shots that could improve with a bit more forgiveness. One of the posters said we should not rely on "aha's" or specific angles that help you identify vulnerability.....I completely disagree. If a horse has the possibility of not performing because there are hints he is going off form, suspicious class changes, has not worked sufficiently off a layoff, equipment changes, perhaps is untested on today's surface or at today's distance a bell should go off in your head. Maybe there is characteristics of a potential "bounce" etc. If so...you must have faith in your decision and make a stand in this game. I think you must have these parameters to prevent mistakes of the worst kind. That is why I am always trying to improve my recognition skill set. The imput from excellent experienced cappers on this forum has accelerated my learning curve. Thank you all!

[Bill Olmsted]

Nobeyers, now I see why you chose that id :)

I think the speed figures are the most blindly overused and hence blunt instruments in handicapping.

Thank you. Keep thinking like that. And please spread the word.

[RaceBookJoe]

Thank you. Keep thinking like that. And please spread the word.

Yes, please spread the word and also let the pace handicappers know that pace is a figment of the imagination. Horses win because of humidity levels and barometric pressure. Honestly though, there are many ways to win, and lose, in this game. To each his own. Bill, please keep it up with your "lock of the day", win or lose at least you stick to your guns and not afraid to put it out there. One of these days I will have the coconuts to post some of my spectacular "crapdicapping" haha.