Highest Beyer this year?

[Doc]

Anybody know which horse recorded the highest Beyer speed figure thus far this year? Is there a chart available somewhere that lists this?

[DrugS]

Fabulous Strike 118 going five furlongs at Mountaineer

http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

[Doc]

Thanks very much!


Doc

[DanG]

Fabulous Strike 118 going five furlongs at Mountaineer

http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer
As a sidebar concerning the ‘Beyer scale;

That list certainly points out that sprinters are capable of earning too high a figure in comparison to top class routers and especially when compared to grass animals IMHO.

[john del riccio]

As a sidebar concerning the ‘Beyer scale;

That list certainly points out that sprinters are capable of earning too high a figure in comparison to top class routers and especially when compared to grass animals IMHO.

dan,

i beleive this is because it is more straight forward making figs for sprints as opposed to routes. route races have a much different pace dynamic and that sometimes makes for what you are describing.

john

[DanG]

dan,

i beleive this is because it is more straight forward making figs for sprints as opposed to routes. route races have a much different pace dynamic and that sometimes makes for what you are describing.

john
True John when one only looks at final time and in an individual case, but how does it explain the misleading scale on a wide spread basis? Most years that I looked at Beyer’s #’s sprinters routinely earned better figures than turf routers. As you said, the different pace scenarios explains the distortions and to me this points out a basic flaw in only using final time. It also explains the challenge some players are having with artificial surface IMO.

BTW: One flaw IMHO with the “Beyer scale” is the distortion concerning higher point values for lower distances in absolute terms.

Give or take…

4.5 3.6
5 3.2
5.5 2.9
6 2.7
6.5 2.5
7 2.3
8 2.0
9 1.8
10 1.6

This may be “mathematically correct” on paper but it doesn’t represent reality in terms of BL at various distances / velocities. IMO this explains the wildly high short sprints coming out of Kentucky this year in the 2yo division for example.

[Bill Olmsted]

dan,

i beleive this is because it is more straight forward making figs for sprints as opposed to routes. route races have a much different pace dynamic and that sometimes makes for what you are describing.

john

John,

You've got that right. I found that my spint figs outperformed my route numbers by such a large margin that I gave up on making route figs altogether.

After I started specializing in sprints (7.5 f or less) my game improved beyond my wildest dreams. Indeed, there are enough dirt sprints in North America to keep me in high cotton for a long time.

Highest Regards,

B :)

[Maji]

I thought that Beyer Numbers are adjusted for distances :confused:

If that is true, then doesn't it mean that the speed numbers for sprint and for route will be comparable? Or maybe I am missing something here...

[DrugS]

IMO this explains the wildly high short sprints coming out of Kentucky this year in the 2yo division for example.

I think you are missing something.

Early season two-year-olds have no problem running VERY fast for very short distances. If you'd attend a 2-year-old in training sale, you'd see it's fairly commen for them to run a furlong in 10 flat or a quarter mile in 21 and small change.

If you look at the Keeneland April sale over the polytrack at KEE earlier in the year, a filly by Mineshaft of all sires, worked a furlong in 9 3/5ths and reportedly galloped out a quarter mile in 20.21 seconds. A Lemon Drop Kid filly and a Yankee Gentleman colt both offically worked a quarter in 20 1/5ths.

At this time of year, a real precocious 2-year-old filly can compete with a quality older male sprinter at distances ranging from 3-to-5 furlongs. These types rarely stretch out well beyond five furlongs though.

[DanG]

I think you are missing something.

Early season two-year-olds have no problem running VERY fast for very short distances. If you'd attend a 2-year-old in training sale, you'd see it's fairly commen for them to run a furlong in 10 flat or a quarter mile in 21 and small change.

If you look at the Keeneland April sale over the polytrack at KEE earlier in the year, a filly by Mineshaft of all sires, worked a furlong in 9 3/5ths and reportedly galloped out a quarter mile in 20.21 seconds. A Lemon Drop Kid filly and a Yankee Gentleman colt both offically worked a quarter in 20 1/5ths.

At this time of year, a real precocious 2-year-old filly can compete with a quality older male sprinter at distances ranging from 3-to-5 furlongs. These types rarely stretch out well beyond five furlongs though.
With all due respect, you proved my point.

It’s the flaw in the equalization of distances and various pace scenarios that flaws final time and comparisons of distances.

Yes…we all know a given 2yo can blitz short distances, but how does that justify placing their figures in the range of solid older routers?

Sorry Doc…Didn’t mean to pull your thread into all this technical mumbo jumbo…:eek: I’ll move on here.

[DrugS]

Yes…we all know a given 2yo can blitz short distances, but how does that justify placing their figures in the range of solid older routers?

No one believes that because an especially sharp 2yo runs supersonic fast for 4.5 furlongs, that he can maintain his figures when stretching out to commonly run distances where he'd have to rate.

Any Given Saturday flew from deep in the pack to win his debut by a nose with a 71 Beyer --- he was 9th with just about a 1/4 mile left to run.

Street Sense got ran off his feet in his debut by the fleet footed Unbridled Express.

Are you suggesting that they should not put a number on short sprint two-year-old races altogether --- just because the freakishly talented types who can't rate aren't capable of repeating those numbers when stretched out a little further?

[DanG]

Are you suggesting that they should not put a number on short sprint two-year-old races altogether --- just because the freakishly talented types who can't rate aren't capable of repeating those numbers when stretched out a little further?
No;

But I am suggesting the scaling of numbers as widely practiced is incorrect to favor sprinters. The velocity / exhaustion threshold is reached at about 6.5f and beyond that different forces are at work.

In this country the best sprinters in “most” years…rarely actually sprint. That’s why several classy turn-backs have won the Breeders cup sprint for example.

Ghostzapper, Tiznow, Sunday Silence, Bertrando, Medaglia d’Oro etc all would have been brutal if they shortened up and “most” of the time heading into their respective races the traditional final time figures did not accurately represent this basic reality IMO.

BTW: Let me add to this…

I’m not saying I’m correct in this theory /approach, it just works for me. I do a couple things that would not stand up in a science lab, but in real time they provide an edge.

[DrugS]

I simply don't agree at all.

Natural sprinters almost always outperform the natural milers turning back in the Breeders Cup Sprint.


Neither of the horses you named (Ghostzapper, Tiznow, Sunday Silence, Bertrando, and Medaglia d’Oro) could have been as good sprinting.

Ghostzapper improved his form markedly when stretched out --- his only two career two turn route races yielded Beyers of 128 and 124 --- which runs counter to your theory that sprinters get inflated numbers.

Tiznow ran 6th sprinting in his debut---he's another one that wanted no part of sprints.

Sunday Silence was twice beaten in four career sprint tries. Including once by Houston going 6.5 furlongs. He's another who elevated his form tremendously routing.

Besides for a Cal Bred maiden win, Bertrando was beaten all four times he raced in seven furlong to one-turn miles races.

MDO was another who obviously thrived in the slower paced route races, and was almost untouchable at nine furlongs.

I love betting older horses who stretch-out from 5 and 5.5 furlong races. Just as I love betting 2-year-olds on the cut-back.

[DanG]

That’s why we don’t all wind up on the same animal.

I respect your opinion, but we disagree.

BTW: Comparing animals in their debuts to what they eventual became is comparing apples and oranges IMHO.

[DanG]

In closing…

I’m not saying all distance animals are superior just by the very nature that they run longer. I am saying that if top class animals were “trained” specifically for short distances against a “Fabulous Strike” for example the 118 he achieved would not stand up to many animals who earned significantly less on the flawed Beyer scale.

[DrugS]

The 118 by Fabulous Strike came at Mountaineer, where he seems to love it....when he was allowed an uncontested lead against a moderate field going just five furlongs.

Costa Rising just ran a 114 Beyer last Saturday in a two-turn route race at Evangeline Downs, and he didn't have it as easy as FS had it in that Panhandler stake at Mountaineer.

I also respect your opinion....but just disagree. I think you should also realize that breeding is strongly slanted in favor of breeding fast horses...certainly speed is valued over endurance.

I think we both expect the vast majority of the 2-year-olds with the real high figures now to fade away as the distances increase.

[cj]

We'll never know because there is zero reason to ever train these horses to sprint. However, I tend to agree with DrugS on this one. You can't just train a top 400 meter runner to beat a top 100 meter runner. Body types and stride have a lot to do with where a person best excels, and I think it is very similar with horses.

[DanG]

The 118 by Fabulous Strike came at Mountaineer, where he seems to love it....when he was allowed an uncontested lead against a moderate field going just five furlongs.

Costa Rising just ran a 114 Beyer last Saturday in a two-turn route race at Evangeline Downs, and he didn't have it as easy as FS had it in that Panhandler stake at Mountaineer.

I also respect your opinion....but just disagree. I think you should also realize that breeding is strongly slanted in favor of breeding fast horses...certainly speed is valued over endurance.

I think we both expect the vast majority of the 2-year-olds with the real high figures now to fade away as the distances increase.
Fair enough…

All the best to you DrugS! :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

I have a few insights to throw into the mix.

1. The very best horses that can either sprint or route equally effectively (and there are some) are typically stretched out to routes because there are way more Grade 1 races for routers, the purses are generally bigger, and more breeding value is placed on wins in premier route races. "Years ago", when one of the best speed milers dropped back to a sprint, it would usually have a class edge over the best sprinters. I believe this is less true now, but I am not certain.

2. There is no law that says that the relationship between sprinters and routers has to remain fixed. Breeding has been tilted toward high speed for a long time. It's certainly possible that the sprinters are getting better and the 10F - 12F horses are getting worse. It's a matter of debate (assuming this is happening) whether you should adjust the charts to reflect to new "breed norms" or just give the sprinters better figures than the routers. It's not so easy to tell if something like that is going on because of the way variants and charts are made. It's at least possible that all the figures are getting progressively more screwed up (though probably not significantly yet).

3. The pool of turfers is still smaller than the pool of dirt horses in the US even though turf racing has become much more popular in the US in recent years. It might make sense to focus on the figures earned by the best European turfers when they come here.

4. Pace issues definitely impact beaten length norms on turf relative to dirt and I am convinced that no one has this phenomenon measured correctly numerically yet.

5. Experienced class handicappers don't have to deal with many of these issues because the complexities of final time, pace, time charts, beaten lengths, etc... are expressed simultaneously by who is beating who by how much given the trips. You just have to be good enough at it to tell who the best horses are. ;)

[the_fat_man]

5. Experienced class handicappers don't have to deal with many of these issues because the complexities of final time, pace, time charts, beaten lengths, etc... are expressed simultaneously by who is beating who by how much given the trips. You just have to be able to tell who the best horses are. ;)

I assume you're following the turf races at SAR and, hopefully, are enjoying/appreciating how ridiculously tricky those courses are. How 2 weeks into the meet they're not playing the way they were at the beginning. And they're certainly not playing the way they have traditionally.
How (just about) impossible it is to win unless you not only get the precise trip but also over the proper path. How many horses that were BEST in a given race have not crossed the line first.

I particularly enjoy those 10+ horse fields where they finish 3 lengths (or so) apart.

Even classhandicappers are not immune to the intricacies of the turf:rolleyes:

[Indulto]

... Experienced class handicappers don't have to deal with many of these issues because the complexities of final time, pace, time charts, beaten lengths, etc... are expressed simultaneously by who is beating who by how much given the trips. You just have to be good enough at it to tell who the best horses are. ;)CH,
Very well said. One only has to look at the Arlington Million Day G1 Pick 3 to verify your statement.

[classhandicapper]

Even classhandicappers are not immune to the intricacies of the turf:rolleyes:

I'm still not satisfied with my understanding of turf racing, but I was encouraged by the $11.60 I got on one horse at Arlington that looked like a class standout. ;)

[DanG]

I assume you're following the turf races at SAR and, hopefully, are enjoying/appreciating how ridiculously tricky those courses are. How 2 weeks into the meet they're not playing the way they were at the beginning. And they're certainly not playing the way they have traditionally.

That is extremely true this year and really caught me by surprise initially for this meet.