Beyer Numbers Exposed

[Chico]

I noticed 2 horses running in the 6th race at Calder on Sunday, 12-22, who ran virtually identical previous races and were given widely divergent Beyer numbers. Here's the comparative data and running lines:
Both horses were 1st time starters at Calder.
Both ran in MCL20k races.
Both horses started from gate 5.
Both tracks were labelled fast.
Both races were 5f
Track variants for the days were 13 and 14

Princess Helma running line for 12-13 was:
:23 47.2 1:00.1 3rd by 2 2nd by 1/2 3rd 3 3/4
Field of 7 horses
Beyer 52

Sassy Bridget running line for 9-16 was:
:22.4 47.3 1:00.1 2nd by 1/2 2nd by 1/2 3rd 4 1/2
Field of 8 horses
Beyer 34

At approx 2 Beyer points per length Princess was
rated 9 lengths better than Sassy!! Am I missing
something or are the Beyer ratings completely untrustworthy?
Regards,
Chico

[Speed Figure]

I think they are untrustworthy.The winning horses from both races should have got a 61 Beyer.

I can see how Princess Helma got a 52 but Sassy Bridget should have got a 50.

[cj]

Track variant was 13-14...what track variant? If you are talking about the one next to the DRF speed rating, it has nothing to do with Beyer numbers.

I have the Beyer variant for those days as follows:

9-16 -4 (slow)
12-13 -4

So, one of the races was given a bogus figure as happens often. I have written about this a few times here, but Tom always yells at me, so I better not anymore :).

Interesting to note the first horse won, so maybe the Beyer guy was right this time, but I always take the other approach as the prices are always better when they are wrong.

CJ

[midnight]

A lot of the makeup of the Beyer is subjective.

Were these two races at the same track?

The first race was run in mid December, and the second one was run during in mid September, when it's considerably warmer. I notice a lot of times that the same time in colder weather will get a faster Beyer rating because the person making the number deems that cold weather will slow a horse down. I'm not saying that's correct or to what degree, but a horse that races a 1:11.2 in late December at a track is probably going to get a better Beyer than a horse that races a 1:11-2 in mid April at the same track.

[Fastracehorse]

CHICO: What do U mean they ran identical races!!

Are U assuming that beacuse the fractions and the running lines were very similar that the Beyers should be too??

Fractional call times can rarely be used for comparative analyses between 2 different races. This should be obvious to U, especially when they are months apart.

How can U say Beyers are untrustworthy when the higher fig horse won?? U need to fine-tune U're assumptions. :)

Speed figure: Beyers are very trustworthy if the race is run in a perfect world. Of course the elements are omnipresent. :)

'Milkman' ( CJM ): Beyers have to be adjusted because the horse event is scheduled in an imperfect world. Beyers are very reliable. I do agree if you say: They are inflated for an off track. Take 10 points off in this situation and everybody will be happy.

fffastt

[cj]

fastracehorse,

I never said Beyer's weren't reliable, but I find around 5-10% each week that don't make sense when compared to the other races run THAT day. This is at the major tracks listed in Simulcast Weekly, I can only imagine it would be much higher at the cheaper tracks.

CJ

[Tom]

There are many "opportunities" where the Beyer figs are, shall we say, open for interpretation. Sim Weekly is an invaluable handicapping tool for this very reason. These little nuggets are a reward for careful study of the races.

[GR1@HTR]

There is an HTR guy I know who subscribes to Brohammers figs and uses the form to look for differentials between Bro Figs and Beyer...and then mixes in some computer capping...

[Chico]

Originally posted by midnight
A lot of the makeup of the Beyer is subjective.

Were these two races at the same track?

Please reread my post. I clearly stated both races were run at the same track: Calder.

The first race was run in mid December, and the second one was run during in mid September, when it's considerably warmer. I notice a lot of times that the same time in colder weather will get a faster Beyer rating because the person making the number deems that cold weather will slow a horse down.

I repeat: Calder. In southern Florida. About 80 degrees in September AND December. Besides, I don't believe there is a temperature component adjusted into the Beyer formula.
Regards,
Chico

I'm not saying that's correct or to what degree, but a horse that races a 1:11.2 in late December at a track is probably going to get a better Beyer than a horse that races a 1:11-2 in mid April at the same track.

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Chico
I noticed 2 horses running in the 6th race at Calder on Sunday, 12-22, who ran virtually identical previous races and were given widely divergent Beyer numbers. Here's the comparative data and running lines:
Both horses were 1st time starters at Calder.
Both ran in MCL20k races.
Both horses started from gate 5.
Both tracks were labelled fast.
Both races were 5f
Track variants for the days were 13 and 14

Princess Helma running line for 12-13 was:
:23 47.2 1:00.1 3rd by 2 2nd by 1/2 3rd 3 3/4
Field of 7 horses
Beyer 52

Sassy Bridget running line for 9-16 was:
:22.4 47.3 1:00.1 2nd by 1/2 2nd by 1/2 3rd 4 1/2
Field of 8 horses
Beyer 34

At approx 2 Beyer points per length Princess was
rated 9 lengths better than Sassy!! Am I missing
something or are the Beyer ratings completely untrustworthy?
Regards,
Chico That looks like the projection method was used on one of those horses.Problem is,which one?And how about the other horses in those races?Since I have seen many races with Beyers that make you scratch your head,I don't even pay attention to them anymore.

[Fastracehorse]

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,that the times in warmer weather are quicker than times in colder weather.

But the Beyer accounts for the above, hence, it's reliability.

Alot of people in the horseracing world respect Beyers. Baffert told Beyer after he bought War Emblem that the purchase was based on his fig.

fffastt

[Jaguar]

Note that- among other considerations- Beyer numbers are calculated with a "class" component, which by itself opens the door to subjectivity and potential error.

If you want to see better speed ratings, take a look at Jim Cramer's superb numbers in Fastcapper- state of the art.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Fastracehorse]

I have innovated excellent #'s too.

Where could I find Cramer's methodology. Or, could U explain it??

fffastt

[Dick Schmidt]

Fast,

The Cramer Numbers are put out by Jim Cramer of Handicapper's Data Warehouse, and no, they cannot be explained by a human being. They involve literally hundreds of calculations combined with a very sophisticated regression technique and I very much doubt that they could be done by hand.

The numbers are available in most of the programs that download from HDW, including Fastcapper, HSH, HTR, and Synergism. I'm sure there are several others. Having compared them to everything else out there, I think it safe to say that they are the best speed numbers available today. Even if the Beyers were just as good, the fact that everyone has Beyers and only a few have Cramers guarantees that the Cramer numbers will produce better returns.

Dick

[Fastracehorse]

It seems that U are saying Beyers are at least in the same league as Cramer's.

That is good for me because my #'s are much better than the Beyers.

I post my selections on DRF and will keep track of how they do this year so I can show explicitly how they fare under various categories.

Also, Takach seems to think there is no valid speed fig for turf. I disagree strongly. How does Cramer's #'s do on turf??

fffastt

[Lindsay]

Fastracehorse wrote: "Dick: Thanx.
It seems that U are saying Beyers are at least in the same league as Cramer's."

No. What he's saying is that your adjusted Beyers are obviously vastly superior to Beyer and Cramer.

Fastracehorse, I'm going to give you some advice. Then I'm going to leave you alone. If you find someone who responds positively to being told the same thing 1000 times, who thinks assertions gain credibility by virtue of being repeated ad nauseam, you have found the type of person you should be trying to avoid--unless you're planning on selling something to him.

[LOU M.]

Concerning turf figs. Beyer may actually be more accurate on turf than dirt because they are based on class (projection method) rather than pars which are impossible because of the lack of races to calculate a variant. Beyer, Quirin, etal have all stated that the projection method is far superior when creating figs. Since class is a major component of grass racing Beyers just might be more valuable. Try to read Quinn's Figure Handicapping ,it has a great way to create a turf figure based on final fraction times.

[andicap]

As someone who uses Beyers sometimes as a contender selector, take it from me (Beyer says the same thing), they are not nearly as effective on turf as on dirt. They are much more effected by factors like rails up or rails down, etc. I have found the Beyers almost useless for turf races -- often a horse with a low Beyer will jump up. This helps the price, however.

On dirt, I have found them to be excellent for getting the right horses to look at more deeply. I don't use the Beyers like most people -- best of last 3, 2 best of last three, etc. I use time and build a matrix -- last 45 days, last 90 days, last 180 days, back figures if there has been little activity recently -- that zeroes in on 4 or 5 horses.

[Tom]

I like using the Beyer-late pace numbers. They are very good numbers for turf races. I make my own based on final fractions of :24, :30, :36, and :42 being the 100 base. All the extra work going by track classified allowance pars is not worht the time to do. I figure the little less accurracy s acceptable and allows me much more time for, well, life.
Will making these for SA his winter.

[LOU M.]

I recently joined HTR .Are you using LP or FR3 at all. I was thinking of using the benchmarks that you use 24 30 etc converted to velocity figures so I could compare the horses' performance through the VEL pps for paceline selection,any suggestions on this?How about a late pace fig. for the Quirin pps?

[Fastracehorse]

Do U have a problem with this assertion Lindsay??

Care of adjusted beyers:



General - ($115 horse) Fastracehorse Subscribe
From: SILVERBULLE5 1/25/2002 6:37 pm
To: ALL (1 of 8)

1327.1

Way to go Fastracehorse!! You Da Man !!

Fastracehorse nailed a $115.00 horse in the 2nd race today at Gulfstream Park. Now that's some mighty fine handicapping.. Congratulations !!

Fellas, that's the second winner in less than a week to top $100.00 on the board. Very impressive to say the least...

Congrats again....

SB


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fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Well Lou,

I am just trying to understand why that Takach believes Beyers to be invalid.

My figs work very well on the lawn.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Beyers are excellent on the lawn.

I have the posts to prove it.

And will continue to prove it.

fffastt

[Tom]

Originally posted by LOU M.
I recently joined HTR .Are you using LP or FR3 at all. I was thinking of using the benchmarks that you use 24 30 etc converted to velocity figures so I could compare the horses' performance through the VEL pps for paceline selection,any suggestions on this?How about a late pace fig. for the Quirin pps?

In HTR, I like to average 2-3 lines per horse to get the ratings. I try to use recent good races. The program averages them all together and I focus on SP and LP as wel as strong F3.
Works well. Be talking to you an the HTR board, I'm sure.
I'm "Homer" over there (Bulldog)

[cj]

Originally posted by RayGordon

...Or a race can get its own figure that disregards the variant.

...Not at all unusual and not subjective, just the logical conclusion after the post-race analysis.

Not unusual, but usually wrong!

CJ

[cj]

Ray,

Split variants I agree, but not isolated ones.

I bet strongly in races when I know an isolated variant has been applied. Of course I'm not always right, but the odds are always on my side as the general public doesn't have this info.

If you doubt this, scan the selections page, many of my picks are from this angle.

CJ

[Fastracehorse]

Does the public need your information??

fffastt

[cj]

Its not "my" information. It is there for all to find if they look for it. I base my bets solely on information not contained in black and white in the DRF. If it is in there, it is not worth betting. I use homemade pace figures, I check for races I think were assigned a bogus variant, and a few other things. It works for me. Unlike some other "gurus" around here, I post picks pretty regularly starting last January, so look them up and judge for yourself.

CJ

[Fastracehorse]

It wasn't a rhetorical question.

I post on DRF.

fffastt

[cj]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse
It wasn't a rhetorical question.

I post on DRF.

fffastt

I didn't think it was rhetorical, that is why I answered! Doesn't rhetorical mean you don't expect an answer?

What does where you post have to do with this? Guess I'm slow tonight...

CJ

[hurrikane]

I think you mean ssssloww

[Fastracehorse]

How 'bout 'Water Sprinklers.'

??

fffastt