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View Full Version : SAR 8/11 - Gr1 Swordancer


NYPlayer
08-10-2007, 08:32 PM
This is an interesting long race on the grass, and I think the favorite, English Channel, is vulnerable. Here's how I see some of the main contenders:

Better Talk Now - an older horse that no longer seems capable of running it's best number. A play against in the top two spots.

English Channel - This horse seems to have tapered off a bit in form. It ran the worst race of it's career this year and hasn't come back to it's top fig (Sheets). However, the horse still has raw number power and should still be respected. A play against on the win side, but would use in exacta savers.

Trippi's Storm - Definitely better on turf. Has certainly run better this year and is in general in postive form, running a new top last race. My concern is that this performance might be a small bounce, and so I'd want a little better than the 4-1 morning line. A strong win candidate and I would use in exactas.

Always First - This horse has had a spotty career, but this year, while only running three races, the horse has shown a bit more consistency. Would have to run a new top to win and is a six year old, but it does seem to be circling around to a better performance. Another good win candidate, and I would make the play at the ML of 8-1 and probably down to 6-1. My top pick and likely win bet.

Robert Fischer
08-10-2007, 10:20 PM
scratch the underlay BTN

Ron
08-10-2007, 10:40 PM
BTN was scratched 12 hours before your post, NYPlayer.

NYPlayer
08-11-2007, 09:52 AM
BTN was scratched 12 hours before your post, NYPlayer.

Right. I Missed that, but I would've thought that NYRA would've adjusted the entries. Anyway, it doesn't change the analysis, although it might affect the play. Trippi figures to be the second choice and I wouldn't key him a less than 4-1, and English Channel has a good chance of running an off race. My oddsline on this race is pretty simple:

Trippi - 3:1
English Channel - 3:1
Always First - 3:1
field - 3:1