MTH R1. Bogus Favorite?

[Bill Olmsted]

PAINTED FEATHERS (7/5 ml) looks vulnerable (win pool only). Five horses are dropping to new lows and #3 SASSY PRIDE beat PF by 6 lengths June 21. Yet PAINTED FEATHERS is likely to get heavy action based on its last two second place finishes.

I'm betting the #2 entry, #3 & #5 to win, hoping for a minimun 50% return. I don't have clue how to fashion a decent exacta play.

[Bill Olmsted]

3/5 as we speak

[Bill Olmsted]

#5 wins!

12.00 4.00 3.00

100% Return

50% over expected ROI

[melman]

5 is a winner pays $12.00. Nice for "beat the chalk Bill". :jump:

[Bill Olmsted]

5 is a winner pays $12.00. Nice for "beat the chalk Bill". :jump:

I'm not only a chalk player...but also a chalk naysayer!

Works both ways.

Thanks!

[pic6vic]

By looking at chalk you can see the bad ones as you are always analyzing them. This isn't for everone.

Nice

[Bill Olmsted]

Yes. You can win both ways--IF you have a strong opinion. If I'm betting against, however, I want to bogus favorite to be at least even money. That makes the rest of the field a much sweeter collective overlay.

I could write a book on identifying false favorites. There are many things to look for that the public doesn't get. But I'll save that for later.

:)

[Skanoochies]

Write the bloody book, I`ll buy the first copy. :D

[Bill Olmsted]

You're on!

B:)

[PaceAdvantage]

Nice call Bill!

[judd]

nice call bill

[GaryG]

This hanging filly, Painted Feathers, is in again....today's 9th at Mth. I am looking to beat her with #1 WHAPINA.

[Bill Olmsted]

This hanging filly, Painted Feathers, is in again....today's 9th at Mth. I am looking to beat her with #1 WHAPINA.

Interesting race. #1 WHAPINA is an interesting horse....hmmm....interesting.....I think I like it.

But I don't think that Painted Feathers will suck up as much cash as she did last time. She's 3/1 on the ml... Still......interesting. VERY interesing, Gary.

B :)

[GaryG]

Vito Merola will have a better seat to watch this one....a very interesting guy and may he R I P.

[Bill Olmsted]

Amen to that.

R.I.P.

[Bill Olmsted]

RE: WHAPINA. I really like the big drop to the bottom (10k state-bred) and the surface & distance switch. This is a horse that was only 3.50 lengths off the winner two races back in a MSW State-Bred at 6F. The only downside I can see is that WHAPINA doesn't have any early lick. But that can be excused when the horse is taking a huge tumble down the class ladder, just as the Whapper is doing today.

Painted Feathers could take this on cheap speed alone. But it won't be easy. Tough call. But I say go with WHAPINA. You should get 2/1 on the win end and maybe 1/2 for place.

B :)

[RaceBookJoe]

Yes. You can win both ways--IF you have a strong opinion. If I'm betting against, however, I want to bogus favorite to be at least even money. That makes the rest of the field a much sweeter collective overlay.

I could write a book on identifying false favorites. There are many things to look for that the public doesn't get. But I'll save that for later.

:)

You are definately correct. Betting on good favorites and betting against underlaid bad favorites is one way to skin this cat. Also, if you ever write that book please put me on the buy list. Great job.

[Bill Olmsted]

Looks like BACKSIDE ACTION is taking money off of the drop plus the early speed on a sloppy track (5/2 now). WHAPINA is getting good action at 3/1 now. Should be interesting...

If I were a betting man, I'd bet WHAPINA to PLACE hoping for a 50% return. Looks like a contentious race, where the underspots (place/show) can return good dividends.

[Bill Olmsted]

Jeeze....EVEN MONEY(!!!)

on the WHAPster!!:jump:

[GaryG]

Somebody bet a ton on her late. I reversed the exacta as a saver.

[Bill Olmsted]

Nice call

Painted Feathers 6.60 3.00 3.00
Whapina -- 2.60 2.60

Exacta 9-1 $14.00

[GaryG]

It just seems bizarre that The Whapster was the favorite.....It sure wan't me that bet all of that into the win pool. I just had a modest win bet on The Whapster with a box exacta. :eek: