STATISTICALLY CHALLENGED CASE ANALYSIS: Sacred City --Sar 8/10 R9

[the_fat_man]

Leave it to The Fat Man to come up with a topical posting given the presently very popular Workouts thread.

Talk about a horse facing some strong statistical NEGATIVES

Sacred City

1) Poor jockey win % ---Jesus Ponce gets back on (has taken the DOUGHNUT at SAR so far)

2) Never raced at a (2 turn) route before (sole effort going 7F). The numbers say that stretching from sprint to route is a low probability play.

3) been away more than 31 days and POOR 31-90 days away TRAINER

Damn, he's up against it tomorrow.
Not gonna comment on his form or his trip. Going to rely on the statistics and (probably) kick this one.

[DanG]

Leave it to The Fat Man to come up with a topical posting given the presently very popular Workouts thread.

Talk about a horse facing some strong statistical NEGATIVES

Sacred City

1) Poor jockey win % ---Jesus Ponce gets back on (has taken the DOUGHNUT at SAR so far)

2) Never raced at a (2 turn) route before (sole effort going 7F). The numbers say that stretching from sprint to route is a low probability play.

3) been away more than 31 days and POOR 31-90 days away TRAINER

Damn, he's up against it tomorrow.
Not gonna comment on his form or his trip. Going to rely on the statistics and (probably) kick this one.
Or…




2nd best speed figure in race (with routine 2nd time improvement should project 1st)
2nd best pedigree in race that says stretch out should not be an issue.
Excellent 3rd fraction for a debut NY bred.
While the barn is low % overall the trainer has popped with 3/16 grass routes for a $5+ ROI.
Among other things, but its late! :eek:
All depends on your methods / sources and “agenda” how numeric information is applied…or not. ;)

Go get em Fats… :ThmbUp:

[the_fat_man]

Or…





2nd best speed figure in race (with routine 2nd time improvement should project 1st)
2nd best pedigree in race that says stretch out should not be an issue.
Excellent 3rd fraction for a debut NY bred.
While the barn is low % overall the trainer has popped with 3/16 grass routes for a $5+ ROI.
Among other things, but its late! :eek:
All depends on your methods / sources and “agenda” how numeric information is applied…or not. ;)

Go get em Fats… :ThmbUp:



What a KILLJOY you are.


And, of course, the horse had a very, very nice late run into a race that didn't come back (FatChart not attached).



Too bad we won't be able to see him (or another of the other interesting turf entries) run on the turf today.

[the_fat_man]

Or…








While the barn is low % overall the trainer has popped with 3/16 grass routes for a $5+ ROI.
All depends on your methods / sources and “agenda” how numeric information is applied…or not. ;)

Go get em Fats… :ThmbUp:



BTW, this positive ROI is MOSTLY the result of Big Daddy Rex, who popped at 60:1 at BEL 5/28. Remember him, Dan. They routed him twice and he made a noteworthy move (for me, at least) the 2nd of these races; then sprinted him, and he was wide throughout; then routed him again (going from Coa to Pablo Morales) and he won for fun. Not meaning to redboard, but I remember watching them load and noticing the horse was 60:1 and thinking "damn, why are his odds so high in here?".


All depends on how much you 'know' about your data, too. :ThmbUp:

[DanG]

BTW, this positive ROI is MOSTLY the result of Big Daddy Rex, who popped at 60:1 at BEL 5/28. Remember him, Dan. They routed him twice and he made a noteworthy move (for me, at least) the 2nd of these races; then sprinted him, and he was wide throughout; then routed him again (going from Coa to Pablo Morales) and he won for fun. Not meaning to redboard, but I remember watching them load and noticing the horse was 60:1 and thinking "damn, why are his odds so high in here?".

All depends on how much you 'know' about your data, too. :ThmbUp:
Have you ever had a moment where you predicted the future Fats?

I almost never pay attention to ROI’s in trainer information for example. Experience has shown me the pitfalls and yes in my own reports I eliminate outlying data. But, the couple times I’ve posted a few stats someone will PM me with…”yes, but what is the ROI”…When I sent that last night I thought to myself…I make it 3/5 someone brings up that distorted $5 ROI.

Now…I don’t bet 3/5 too often, so I really can’t collect. :D

Yes; I hear ya on the off the turf issue, but the weather so far has been great up there so far so its hard to complain. Every time this happens I hear Russ Harris’s voice in my head from 30+ years ago…”How about a tarp overnight”!!! :bang:

[46zilzal]

all this from ONE lifetime start in a sprint after he went 5 wide? THAT filling in an awful ot of blanks and a maiden to boot vs. a field full of FTS's.....

[the_fat_man]

Have you ever had a moment where you predicted the future Fats?

I almost never pay attention to ROI’s in trainer information for example. Experience has shown me the pitfalls and yes in my own reports I eliminate outlying data. But, the couple times I’ve posted a few stats someone will PM me with…”yes, but what is the ROI”…When I sent that last night I thought to myself…I make it 3/5 someone brings up that distorted $5 ROI.

Now…I don’t bet 3/5 too often, so I really can’t collect. :D

Yes; I hear ya on the off the turf issue, but the weather so far has been great up there so far so its hard to complain. Every time this happens I hear Russ Harris’s voice in my head from 30+ years ago…”How about a tarp overnight”!!! :bang:

Nice redboard, Dan

[DanG]

Nice redboard, Dan
:lol:
You’ve been on the bike to long my friend…Lost faith in your fellow man. :D

46zilzal ~ all this from ONE lifetime start in a sprint after he went 5 wide? THAT filling in an awful ot of blanks and a maiden to boot vs. a field full of FTS's.....

46…Oh…never mind. I’ve been down that road and I usually wind up with a flat hoping Fats comes riding by on a two-seater for a lift back to reality. :eek:

[the_fat_man]

Speaking of (BACK) pedaling. :D

P.S. I've given out any number of winners on this forum, and most, probably, were in maiden races. (Including yesterday's 9th, that I tried to start a thread about, with no success). Go figure.

Comprehension issues, again, I suppose.

[Ron]

You guys always put on quite a show, thanks!

[Tom]

Ran out, but then again, it's workouts were terrible! :lol:

[the_fat_man]

Ran out, but then again, it's workouts were terrible! :lol:

Tom


HEEL BOY

this was an OFF THE TURFER

which renders the thread MOOT:D

Thanks for participating, however. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

funny how people cant comprehend a donut in reading huh fat boy?

if u hadn't wierded out on me we could still have capped some races

have fun with tom or bigmack or whatever that is


maybe they will buy pps when they are not capping and have family in town


tooo bad your horse off the board sucker!!!!


it was a bad pick anyway but yes of course anyone with 1st grade reading could see it was a MOOOOOOOOT pt. once the turf was OFFFFFFF


good luck