SAR---R5 FRIDAY "stakes level" OC100k Hesanoldsalt, Evening Attire...

[Robert Fischer]

race o' day?
PPS BRIS : http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/kiaranmclaughlin_83487.pdf


this race is the real deal

I am about to study some film and call it a night, attention on Ward/Oxley's Minister's Bid...

EARLY THOUGHTS: - this may be either HESANOLDSALT'S back-on-track race or the last time we can catch him at a juicy underlay...
Wonder If NKOSI is much improved from his travels?
STUDENT COUNCIL wasn't flattered by Brass Hat's Whitney, but does offer somewhat game speed to affect the "chemistry"- and Ward's charge
The Suburban wasn't the hottest rendition, but MALIBU MOONSHINE 8/1 did keep trying and goes from 5straight C.Hill rides- to the highly skilled Dominguez
Is EVENING ATTIRE ml 9/2 Edgar Prado going to give his fans a big run here in what at first glance seems like a drop in class ?


Big Race

[Robert Fischer]

Have some overnight and morning showers at the SPA
awaiting an update on any changes...


The DRF (Litfin) picks STUDENT COUNCIL , HESANOLDSALT, NKOSI REIGNS
here.
(my commentary)
STUDENT COUNCIL - a solid horse. He is a Kingmambo with decent early speed. And typical of his pedigree he has a lot of heart. This horse has run in some tough spots and always tries. He has a chance but I don't think of him as top win candidate in this race without major scratches.
SALTY - He has been a running underlay this year. He has a press-but-not-kick style that usually helps him hang around. He could win here if the pace quits - somebody has to come up and win in that case!
NKOSI REIGNS - McLaughlin is a tough trainer to toss a horse with, but this one was never great. He did have a decent race before he left , leading in modest fractions against some G3 animals down in Calder. All the overseas information on the net says he flat out failed over there.


clearly there are possible wagering opportunities :jump:


MINISTERS BID is the key to the race. I watched his races several times. I still do not know! :confused:?. One pattern I notice is that he runs very hard throughout the race. He doesn't really relax and then explode home - he basically wants to simply run the others off the track. A lot of times that leads to the horse tiring at 9 furlongs.... The other thing I notice is that the horse has talent. He adjusted from 7 to 8 furlongs in has last race without really missing a beat. He showed talent as a 3yo and is a little bigger and stronger today. I feel that the MINISTERS BID will make STUDENT COUNCIL's chance of winning very low. Not sure about the other way around. If Bid tires does that still leave him ahead of the closers?? Is this a miler or does John Ward have a horse that will outrun the others today and be headed for something a little bigger ?

[Robert Fischer]

TRACK: MUDDY

SCRATCH STUDENT COUNCIL


pace implications?? ;)

[46zilzal]

Student Council is, on paper, a very good one but will have to come from so far out of it that any traffic will compromise the chances severely.
If the rail horse (Nikosi) runs back to the form before he went to Dubai, he is right there.

[Robert Fischer]

Student Council is, on paper, a very good one but will have to come from so far out of it that any traffic will compromise the chances severely.
If the rail horse (Nikosi) runs back to the form before he went to Dubai, he is right there.

^ Student Council -Scratched.

[Robert Fischer]

Tough race

Was evaluating a bet on Minister's Bid to show. I don't know that it will pay out well enough. I want > $2.60

Assuming Sleek John stinks ; MB has to beat 1 of the following to pay out -

nkosi
Moonshine
eve attire
hesanoldsalt

MB has the speed and early pace to himself, handles the mud well and a jockey who rides well in the mud... The only danger is that he will tire in the stretch with all 4 horses have some positive angles going for them... Will all 4 pass him?? Will he run away from these slow horses on the off track with ease ??

nkosi is maybe most vulnerable but worth noting the lack of race-day meds overseas. Kiaran has had him in the barn for a little while, maybe that is the factor.

Moonshine finished well in the Suburban on a w-i-d-e trip , today draws a talented mud jockey

eve attire is a grinder with heart he can eat up a tiring speed horse

Salty has a chance to run very well

[Robert Fischer]

Assuming Sleek John stinks ; MB has to beat 1 of the following to pay out -

nkosi
Moonshine
eve attire
hesanoldsalt



2

[Robert Fischer]

this is an example of when knowing a rough estimate of show-probables helps.
really If I had a ballpark estimate of the worst-case show payout for Minister's Bid here I probably make the wager. It couldn't have payed a whole lot less even if Salt won?:confused:
He pays out $30 on the $100 here today @ 2.80 to show...




Bid got out well and relaxed a tiny bit and let Nkosi who HAD to have the lead go with it...
Ran off the big blinkered horse when it counted...
Salty showed his usual press-but-not-kick style , probably his last huge underlay of the year...
Bid was decent on the finish. On one hand his speed carried and he was physically stronger than last year, on the other he bore out a little coming out of turn and didn't absolutely crush Salty like he could have...


This time of year you look at a race like this and say who has potential to run on later in the year?
Salty- if he could ever kick
Bid - we didn't know if he can relax and finish at 9 but has most potential
Council - some were high on this also-ran after brass hat race too bad he scratched

tough to make a lot of $$ here unless you used the show bet or absolutely loved Bid on top
I have been profitable on my show wagering of late

[Robert Fischer]

haha sorry for doing the race of the day and shit


i should have argued over theory whilist pimping my business...


my bad

lost track of the theme and started to share some raw handicapping...
]


bye

[PaceAdvantage]

haha sorry for doing the race of the day and shit


i should have argued over theory whilist pimping my business...


my bad

lost track of the theme and started to share some raw handicapping...
]


bye


Why the piss poor attitude? Sometimes, for whatever reason, threads don't fly. Plenty of times we have had long threads pulling apart a race. But even then, folks like the_fat_man complain it wasn't pulled apart the RIGHT way....:lol:

And what's wrong with arguing handicapping theory? Sounds like a good way to learn something new....

If you have other suggestions on how to improve things, I'm all ears....