Thoughts on Del Mar's Contest Race

[toetoe]

Heat 7 @ Dmr:

4, Dakota Padre, while not an animal I would dare to call a "real horse," has some things going for him. After three blah run-around-the-track efforts last year, he ran second to a fine sprinter, Magic Texan, in April. Then a close-up 6th with trouble. Then the only "bad" race this year, a vie-for-the-lead-and-fade job. Last was a maiden breaker versus open company and, maybe because of an anti-Bay Meadows bias, the morning line has him at 30 --- count 'em --- 30/1 !! :jump: :eek: If he doesn't think he's Dr. Fager, he has a real shot at gold. Mr. Smith is not a hump-and-pump speed merchant, another plus ??? But it IS Mike Smith, no getting around that. :D

[statik27]

I'm on Johnny Eves in this race. He's got tactical speed from the outside. In his last race he was making good progress along the rail and looked to be heading for the lead when he was stopped and steadied, he's a big going horse and it took him awhile to get his stride going again. Thus the benefit of the outside post.

statik

[Greyfox]

Not to put you off your # 4 Dakota Padre, my money is going towards
# 6 Scandalous and #10 Best Dressed.

[toetoe]

The horse JE beat came back 20 days later to finish 2nd again, this time 7 lengths clear of Dakota Padre. Advantage Johnny. One small problem, though. Johnny's at only 15/1. You CHALK eater. :D

This field is starting to look-speed laden, no?

[toetoe]

Scandalous is mighty scary at a price too low for me, I guess.

Bestdressed looks like a horrible underlay at 9/2. If he closes to win, I'll look foolish, but I gotta step out against him, as he's making my favorite throwout move --- 3-y-o claimers to allowance. Actually, he made the move last time, finishing third, but to me he's a 3-y-o claimer until proven otherwise.

Sheesh, I'm a snob, ain't I ? :faint:

[statik27]

The horse JE beat came back 20 days later to finish 2nd again, this time 7 lengths clear of Dakota Padre. Advantage Johnny. One small problem, though. Johnny's at only 15/1. You CHALK eater. :D

This field is starting to look-speed laden, no?

It does seem to have alot of speed, but horses haven't been making up a ton of ground in these races anyway, and I think that a stalker from the outside has a distinct advantage. The other horse in this race from a class stand point is Aquire the Fire-6/1 ML.

[toetoe]

Acquire the Fire is another that may rise oddswise due to the anti-NoCal "class" bias. I think he may hit double digits. Ridden by my hero VEsp, also. :cool:

[statik27]

Interesting betting race with lots of different ways to go, I guess we'll have to see them in the paddock before we make a decision.

statik

[toetoe]

I banged Dakota Padre and put a saver on Johnny Eves, him of the nice outside postage.

[ENOTE96]

anybody in the top 500?

[toetoe]

I'm in 133rd, thank you very much. Aw, shucks. :blush:

I was in 95th not long ago. I'm forging around to a new top. In fact, I know so much, just call me The Sheets.

[toetoe]

cnoll is in 35th. (Clapping.) :jump:

[ENOTE96]

193 playing $100 to win on all picks 1 win:bang:

[toetoe]

Why 50/1 on my 4 ? He's no lock, but 50/1 ? :confused:

[toetoe]

Congrats, statik. :jump: I'm changing your name to "dynamik." Sorry you only got $17.60, but nicely nicely.

No excuses here, but did you see my 4-hole drop to last, then soldier on for 6th ? Weird, huh ?