attn toteboard charters/handicappers

[allwaysthere]

like to hear from you guys & exchage info

[Overlay]

"Paging Tote Master . . . ." :rolleyes:

[Pell Mell]

Go to Horses Wild and go through the archives of postings by Slick.

[LemonSoupKid]

Are you talking about early/late monies? Or inefficiencies? I'm always interested in this sort of thing ...

LSK

[rcknhrse]

any body ever heard of the twin towers .

the theory is that any horse with serious backing will have 1 low exacta and then 2 other slightly higher exactas which are nearly identical
there was 1 earlier today at LAD
2ND RACE
#2 HAD A 35 TO THE FAV THEN 2 OTHER EX IN THE 70'S
THE 2 WINS AT 7-1
THE 3-5 FAV RUNS 2ND

[allwaysthere]

i am talking about winning patterns that occur from first flash to closing odds

[allwaysthere]

where is horses wild?

[PaceAdvantage]

where is horses wild?


Nevada.

[Ron]

I've seen them in Mexico too!

[Tape Reader]

i am talking about winning patterns that occur from first flash to closing odds

It has been my experience that first flash is much too early as the pools are too shallow. A big bet that early would tip the hand of the bettor. In NY I use 10 MTP to Off.

[ernie simons]

I found a book by John Gollehon titled "Budget Gambling" that covers a tote strategy very nicely. I've been using this strategy for many years now, with a lot of success. One thing I've found is that the tote doesn't straighten itself out untill 15 min to post. And this tote strategy gives you about 5 minutes to hit the windows before you get shut out.

[spilparc]

If a horse with a morning line of 10 to one goes off at 2 to one, I toss him. Is the public all of a sudden that much smarter than the morning line odds maker?

Conversely, if a horse with a morning line of 2 to one goes off at 5 to one, I toss him as well. If the public hates the morning line favorite this much then the morning line odds maker must have really made a mistake.

[Ron]

If a horse with a morning line of 10 to one goes off at 2 to one, I toss him. Is the public all of a sudden that much smarter than the morning line odds maker?

Conversely, if a horse with a morning line of 2 to one goes off at 5 to one, I toss him as well. If the public hates the morning line favorite this much then the morning line odds maker must have really made a mistake.

The morning line odds maker is just one handicapper.

[allwaysthere]

ron i am talking when the tote opens for the race these odds are the money bet
last nite buy the trainers ,jockeys and track money...these are the important numbers not the morning line

[allwaysthere]

good advice BUT the OVERNITE money is in there buy the owners trainers and the jockeys they ALWAYS bet the nite before

[allwaysthere]

thanks...charlie

[Kelso]

I found a book by John Gollehon titled "Budget Gambling" that covers a tote strategy very nicely. I've been using this strategy for many years now, with a lot of success.


Do you use the system only when you are at the track, or does it also work for you online/simulcast? Do you get many plays per day from one track? Would you kindly share with us your win rate and ROI data from this system?

Thank you.

[ernie simons]

Do you use the system only when you are at the track, or does it also work for you online/simulcast? Do you get many plays per day from one track? Would you kindly share with us your win rate and ROI data from this system?

Thank you.
I don't keep records, never have. I would go into the details of the strategy, but the last time I did that, the resident wolves were snapping at my arse. Definately not gonna deal with that crap again. I will say this though. The strategy works.

[InFront]

I been looking for a good ToteBoard method for some time. But mainly looking for one where you don't need to constantly monitor the board many times every minute before post time but something where you need to only look at the board just once close to posttime to see if there is a possible play or not whether it's for WPS or exotic pools. Does this system work that way or do you know of any other tote methods that do?

[andicap]

Would tote methods that theoretically work in the US be of use at UK tracks as well? Or would the betting patterns be completely different over there?

[ernie simons]

I been looking for a good ToteBoard method for some time. But mainly looking for one where you don't need to constantly monitor the board many times every minute before post time but something where you need to only look at the board just once close to posttime to see if there is a possible play or not whether it's for WPS or exotic pools. Does this system work that way or do you know of any other tote methods that do?
Nope. Gotta track the changes from 15 to 2mtp. It kicks up xt's, tri's & win bets if you're so inclined. But ya gotta earn it. And never more than 2 or 3 a day at any one track I've ever used it on. Seems to work best at Finger Lakes & Delaware in the cheaper races. Usually the first 5 or 6 races. And seldom works on fields of 10 or more. Never kicks up a play on a horse with a ML over 12-1. Almost always horses with ml of 5/1 up to 10/1. I usually know if I'm gonna have a play start to unfold by 10 mtp. This saves me the agravation of watching all the odds changes for all the horses for the entire 15 minutes. Usual odds on win bets are between 5/2 and 5/1.
If anybody buys the book to check this strategy, pm me and I'll give you all the tweaks and changes I've made to it that made it work better than what Gollehon had intended.
Actually, if anybody's interested in this strategy, you can pm me and I'll try to explain it for you along with the changes I've made and the shortcuts that will save you a ton of agravation. Not selling anything here. Just figured I'd share the info. You can do with it as you wish. Just know that it doesn't work at all the tracks, and it doesn't work on large fields. Somebody I gave the strategy to a couple years ago said it wasn't working for him at Suffolk. He tried it for a week at Suffolk and it didn't work so he abandonded the whole idea. Go figure. No.......go to Delaware. It works very good at Del.

[ernie simons]

I guess I should mention, send an email address with your request. It's easier to do this with the mail than pm.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would go into the details of the strategy, but the last time I did that, the resident wolves were snapping at my arse. Definately not gonna deal with that crap again.

I'm not sure I follow. Why not post the strategy here? Who gave you trouble? Either you try it and it works, or you try it and it doesn't work....

[ernie simons]

I'm not sure I follow. Why not post the strategy here? Who gave you trouble? Either you try it and it works, or you try it and it doesn't work....
It wasn't the actaul strategy itself that set the hounds on me. It was the fact that I said I HAD a tote strategy that worked quite well. That set the diehard purist cappers on my trail. From there I found I was having to defend myself and the strategy.
I'll post the method here if you think it won't infringe on Gollehons copywrite.
90% of the strategy I took from his book. The other 10% are the changes I made to make it a little easier to use and a little more productive.

[ryesteve]

It wasn't the actaul strategy itself that set the hounds on me. It was the fact that I said I HAD a tote strategy that worked quite well. That set the diehard purist cappers on my trail.
Some people really enjoy my analogies, so here's another one: this is like complaining that people give you a hard time when you tell them you have video of the loch ness monster, when you haven't shown them any footage yet.

[ernie simons]

Some people really enjoy my analogies, so here's another one: this is like complaining that people give you a hard time when you tell them you have video of the loch ness monster, when you haven't shown them any footage yet.
And so it begins. I'm done with this. :rolleyes:

[ryesteve]

Relax... that was just an attempt at humor, and an attempt to point out where the "wolves" were coming from... not a rip.

[Good4Now]

There used to be a man who did this at Santa Anita. He is said to have played daily for years and focused on tote board strategies. I understand he would teach those willing to pay his fee over three days, wish them well, and tell them they could check back if need be.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll post the method here if you think it won't infringe on Gollehons copywrite.

That might be a problem....

[Pell Mell]

I have found that watching the tote has it's own little quirks according to the track. There seem to be different trends at different tracks. For instance; some years ago I discovered that the exacta pool at CT pointed out some huge winners. I just happened to be browsing last night and took a look at the 9th at CT. A couple of min. before post, the #9, which was the longest shot in the race, coupled with the #3 was 2nd choice in the exacta next to the 4/5 shot. The #9 at 42/1 ran 2nd and the #3 at 27/1 ran 3rd. The key at that track is to look at the ex a few min. before post and see what the ex are with the longest shots on top.

[ernie simons]

I have found that watching the tote has it's own little quirks according to the track. There seem to be different trends at different tracks. For instance; some years ago I discovered that the exacta pool at CT pointed out some huge winners. I just happened to be browsing last night and took a look at the 9th at CT. A couple of min. before post, the #9, which was the longest shot in the race, coupled with the #3 was 2nd choice in the exacta next to the 4/5 shot. The #9 at 42/1 ran 2nd and the #3 at 27/1 ran 3rd. The key at that track is to look at the ex a few min. before post and see what the ex are with the longest shots on top.
What do you mean second choice in the exacta? I don't follow.

[andicap]

Ernie,
you ever get my email??

[ernie simons]

Ernie,
you ever get my email??
I'm not sure. Things are getting a little confusing on this end. Use PM.

[allwaysthere]

out of 40 replies you seem to have a good grip on this toteboard handicapping please tell me more as per your article ..charlie thanks

[allwaysthere]

how does this system work?.......charlie thanks

[ernie simons]

how does this system work?.......charlie thanks
PM me your email charlie.

[ernie simons]

You guys that are emailing to the address in my profile....don't. I haven't used that account in years. Send your email address in a pm. And those of you who gave me an attitude about that email....... Have a nice day. :)

[Pell Mell]

What do you mean second choice in the exacta? I don't follow.

The ex 9/4 was at about $300. and the 4 was 4/5.

The ex 9/3 was just over$300. with the 9 at 40/1 and the 3 at 25/1..Get it?:confused:

[Vigors]

I just don't understand why intelligent, free-thinking individual's, can
dismiss the toteboard as another important tool in ferreting out value, in fact
more-so then every other figure's who come out yearly ( this year it's the
"MOSS" number's ). Let the PP's explain the above example from Pell Mell
reguarding the "9/4 - 9/3" payoff's. I was in Caliente in 1997 when I first
noticed some discrepency's in the exacta payoff's ( until then I was only
betting "Win" ) and after 2 race's in a row where the "suspect horse " won
and placed...I didn't assume "dumb luck", but instead have followed it as a
strong conformation of some play's....although at the very small tracks with
very small pool's ( where $200 can drop a horse from 7-1 to 7-2 ) sometime's
an owner who has more wallet then horse ,can alter the win pool to make his
horse the "favorite" in front of all his friend's.....later adding excuse's after his
steed run's up the track. So brand me with a "Scarlet A", or should I say "T"...
you won't be hurting my feeling's.

[ernie simons]

I just don't understand why intelligent, free-thinking individual's, can
dismiss the toteboard as another important tool in ferreting out value, in fact
more-so then every other figure's who come out yearly ( this year it's the
"MOSS" number's ). Let the PP's explain the above example from Pell Mell
reguarding the "9/4 - 9/3" payoff's. I was in Caliente in 1997 when I first
noticed some discrepency's in the exacta payoff's ( until then I was only
betting "Win" ) and after 2 race's in a row where the "suspect horse " won
and placed...I didn't assume "dumb luck", but instead have followed it as a
strong conformation of some play's....although at the very small tracks with
very small pool's ( where $200 can drop a horse from 7-1 to 7-2 ) sometime's
an owner who has more wallet then horse ,can alter the win pool to make his
horse the "favorite" in front of all his friend's.....later adding excuse's after his
steed run's up the track. So brand me with a "Scarlet A", or should I say "T"...
you won't be hurting my feeling's.
That's always one of the drawbacks to charting win pools at smaller tracks. One $200 bet will drop the odds way down like that. That's why I told all you guys I sent that tote strategy to, go for 4 even 5 betdowns on a horse you're tracking. This will get you past that one big bet down from that guy with deep pockets. 4 bet downs, not 3 for your win horse. Now you're depending on more than one bettor for your hits. 5 betdowns, take the rubber band off your wad. :) Even a negative betting progression at this 5 hit level won't leave you in the hole.

[ernie simons]

Even a negative betting progression at this 5 hit level won't leave you in the hole.
Uh oh. I said neg progression. Here we go!! :)

[PaceAdvantage]

I just don't understand why intelligent, free-thinking individual's, can
dismiss the toteboard as another important tool in ferreting out value, in fact
more-so then every other figure's who come out yearly ( this year it's the
"MOSS" number's ).

Lots of folks dismiss things they themselves haven't tried. I have never dismissed the tote board as a potential tool, and in fact, last year, I wrote a program for myself that charts and records action on the tote. I was actually mighty impressed with myself for going through with the project and seeing it to the end.

With that said, I haven't found much I can use in my day-to-day wagering based solely on the program I wrote and the data I am recording, but that's probably my own shortcomings shining through and not those of the tote and the info it can provide.

If those who actually have experience with successful tote board handicapping would be a little less condescending and a little bit more giving, then perhaps we can all learn a thing or two. (And please note, this last line is NOT directed at anyone whose participation in this thread still stands. It IS directed at someone whose comments have been deleted because once again, they were merely self-serving to the author and not at all helpful to anyone else).

[PittsburghPhil]

i am talking about winning patterns that occur from first flash to closing odds

Didn't Mark Cramer do something on that?

[bobphilo]

The morning line odds maker is just one handicapper.

Right, plus in making the ML, he's not even handicapping but trying to predict who the public will bet.

Bob

[spilparc]

Ron

The morning line odds maker is just one handicapper.

BobRight, plus in making the ML, he's not even handicapping but trying to predict who the public will bet.

Bob

I don't necessarily agree with this. In the world of sports betting it's true that the line maker is trying to come up with a point spread that will divide the money, because all bets are made against the house.

On some occasions, he will put up what he thinks is an incorrect line, because he knows, for example, that California residents will jump all over their home team. Since a lot of betting money will come from a state like CA, the line maker might put up a line that is off by as many as two points. He does this because he believes this is the necessary adjustment to divide the money.

But in horse racing the morning line odds maker has no real interest in dividing the money because it's a parimutuel system. Since you're not betting against the house--but the other players, the final betting outcome doesn't make much difference to the track.

That being the case I belive that most race track morning line odds makers have a pretty good feel for the game and the horses on the track. This is especially evident in the case of first time starters, shippers and foreign horses.

I think they are trying to come up with a fairly honest line based on their opinion, and a mix of public opinion.

There really is no shading necessary, but it is done nonetheless. That's why you rarely see a 2/5 or 3/5 morning line horse, and it's also why you never see 50 and 100 to one shots in the morning line.

In fact, years ago, I was told that the MLOM had a series of preprinted forms that helped him with his task. Let's say he wanted to make one horse 2 to 1 and another 3 to1 in a 7 horse field. He would pull out the appropriate form, mark in the two horses, and then put in the rest of the horses next to the appropriate odds that were left on his sheet. He could fiddle with the numbers if need be.

Nowadays, with the advent of computers, this is probably even easier.

I don't believe that the MLOM is just another handicapper. I think he has to be a cut above the rest, and that he is also trying to come up with a morning line that reflects (in his opinion) the ability of the horses--and to a much lesser degree the final betting opinion of the public.

[bobphilo]

Ron[/i]

Bob

I don't necessarily agree with this. In the world of sports betting it's true that the line maker is trying to come up with a point spread that will divide the money, because all bets are made against the house.

On some occasions, he will put up what he thinks is an incorrect line, because he knows, for example, that California residents will jump all over their home team. Since a lot of betting money will come from a state like CA, the line maker might put up a line that is off by as many as two points. He does this because he believes this is the necessary adjustment to divide the money.

But in horse racing the morning line odds maker has no real interest in dividing the money because it's a parimutuel system. Since you're not betting against the house--but the other players, the final betting outcome doesn't make much difference to the track.

That being the case I belive that most race track morning line odds makers have a pretty good feel for the game and the horses on the track. This is especially evident in the case of first time starters, shippers and foreign horses.

I think they are trying to come up with a fairly honest line based on their opinion, and a mix of public opinion.

There really is no shading necessary, but it is done nonetheless. That's why you rarely see a 2/5 or 3/5 morning line horse, and it's also why you never see 50 and 100 to one shots in the morning line.

In fact, years ago, I was told that the MLOM had a series of preprinted forms that helped him with his task. Let's say he wanted to make one horse 2 to 1 and another 3 to1 in a 7 horse field. He would pull out the appropriate form, mark in the two horses, and then put in the rest of the horses next to the appropriate odds that were left on his sheet. He could fiddle with the numbers if need be.

Nowadays, with the advent of computers, this is probably even easier.

I don't believe that the MLOM is just another handicapper. I think he has to be a cut above the rest, and that he is also trying to come up with a morning line that reflects (in his opinion) the ability of the horses--and to a much lesser degree the final betting opinion of the public.

The track handicaper who makes the ML may or may not be an excellent 'capper and may or may not be good at estimating a horses true odds, but that is not what he is trying to do in making a ML. The purpose of the ML is strictly a prediction of what the closing odds will be, though it comes close to expressing the handicappers personal opinion. That's why sometimes the track handicapper will say that he doesn't think the horse he makes the ML favorite is the most likely winner. Many tracks have the handicppers picks in the program, which would be irrelevant if the ML was the handicappers pick.

Bob

[ernie simons]

I remember checking the graded picks for the morning line odds maker at Delaware a few years back. It confused me at the time because his personal order of picks didn't always match his order of ml odds. I thought why does he have his ml favorite listed 2nd or 3rd in 1/3 of the races? Then I got to thinking about somebody saying that his job was to predict what that horses final odds should be. Not his chances of winning. It just made sense to me.

[Lefty]

i am talking about winning patterns that occur from first flash to closing odds
You NEVER get the closing odds. The odds are still computing while they are running the race. I wish i had a nickel for every horse i bet that drops 2-3 pts after i bet, sometimes with 0 on the clock. With all the simulcast centers, these days it's the nature of the game.

[Mike at A+]

Here's my two cents on tote board handicapping. People who do it trust others to do their handicapping more than they trust themselves. It's like hanging out at the $50 window and watching to see who the high rollers are betting.

The only time I would EVER use the tote board as a guide is when I really love a horse to win. In that case, I will calculate the return on a $100 win bet and see how much I'd have to invest in the exactas to get that same return by betting different amounts on each exacta combination with my horse on top. If it's less than $100, I go with the exacta wheel. If more, I make the win bet.

Of course this works best at bigger tracks with bigger pools where odds and payoffs don't change drastically.

Quick examples:

Scenario A:
I like the #1 horse in a 5 horse field with current odds of 4/1.
$100 to win returns $500.
Exacta payoffs are 1-2: $100, 1-3: $50, 1-4: $25, 1-5: $20.

$10 exacta bet on 1/2 returns $500
$20 exacta bet on 1/3 returns $500
$40 exacta bet on 1/4 returns $500
$50 exacta bet on 1/5 returns $500

10+20+40+50 = $120 so I'd stick with the win bet and make $400 profit if my horse wins.

Scenario B:
I like the #1 horse in a 5 horse field with current odds of 4/1.
$100 to win returns $500.
Exacta payoffs are 1-2: $125, 1-3: $100, 1-4: $50, 1-5: $20.

$8 exacta bet on 1/2 returns $500
$10 exacta bet on 1/3 returns $500
$20 exacta bet on 1/4 returns $500
$50 exacta bet on 1/5 returns $500

8+10+20+50 = $88 so I'd make the exacta bets and make $412 profit if my horse wins.

Of course after a few beers, you don't want to bother with calculations and could care less if you won $400 or $412.

[Good4Now]

a 4 to 1 over the fave returns $20 on a $2 ex???

I'll sit on the hump if I can get a ride with you!!!

( I figure the car's already FULL! )

[Mike at A+]

a 4 to 1 over the fave returns $20 on a $2 ex???

I'll sit on the hump if I can get a ride with you!!!

( I figure the car's already FULL! )

Are you telling me that you never saw a $10 horse over a 3/5 favorite in a FIVE HORSE FIELD return a $20 exacta?

[allwaysthere]

sure i would be interested in what youhave and we can share our notes ...charlie

[allwaysthere]

sure charlieredman@adelphia.net

[allwaysthere]

yes ii am interested in your tote stratagy....charlie

[Spiderman]

The post was started by a person who claims exclusive use of the toteboard for betting. That's fine. I use the tool was an important factor to supplement or confirm my handicapping.

I started playing when TV monitors first came to the fore and before exactas were a play. The advent of TV allowed for display of the DD probables. A friend would call-out the probables at 16mtp, 9 mtp 4 mtp and the final, if time allowed. We were both good at math and able to quickly calculate a 'ballpark' parlay and compare that # to the odds of the first leg horse and see if the DD probable was 'live' in the second leg. Most memorable score was when jockey, Larry Adams, won both halves of the DD and it paid $620.

To this day, I still check the DD probables with my handicapped contenders. It is much easier to do at home with a separate browser open to a toteboard website.

Exactas are charted in a different way. I play only major tracks - nyra, socal, kee and cd (Derby week only). For me, it starts with handicapping and having a short list of contenders. When you see the longshot bet to within a few points, top and bottom, of the top three betting choices, it is worthwhile to follow and take a swing at it. There are too many variables to cite here, but the toteboard is an absolute tool for handicapping success.

[badcompany]

I've found the board is more useful in telling you what NOT to bet.

If a horse that should be getting money opens up dead on the board, it's USUALLY a negative sign.

[DanG]

Some of my most painful memories as a gambler have been when I let the board influence my opinion. The game is all about working to uncover overlays, but the times I have let the board “talk me off” including an animal have left real battle scars.

Many years ago I started writing a brief blurb on what I was thinking before serial gambles. Just glancing at journals from a few years ago some of the most intense all CAPITAL :faint: scribbling is when I allowed my competition to influence my judgment.

I’ve come a long in this discipline, but still fight the urge when a pick-4 has a FTS / DOA when I planned on including them.

I’m not saying that tote-capping / charting can’t beat this game in the right hands, it just isn’t for everyone. If you’re anything like me (God forbid lol) :D it can be an unnecessary source of anxiety.

PS: 1st leg of a pick-whatever and a FTS from obscure connections is 5/2… that can be a different story.

[badcompany]

Some of my most painful memories as a gambler have been when I let the board influence my opinion. The game is all about working to uncover overlays

That's the problem with the "game." You don't know whether a bet is an overlay until the race is over and it's too late to do anything about it.:(

But, back to looking at the board. To me, it's a concession that the program doesn't provide me with ALL the infomation I need, and MAYBE the board can help fill in the blanks.

Much like playing the stock market, there are almost no absolutes in horseplaying. The only one I can think of is to not bet more than you can afford to lose.

[Dave Schwartz]

Remember the guy who used to post here with all the picks all the time? (His brother - Anderon - still does.)

I have watched this guy over time - little bit here and there - and must admit to being impressed. Not my cup of tea but he really appears to be on to something (I am not sure what).

I believe he is still posting on the Dmr forum site.

When I spoke to him a couple of weeks ago, I asked him, "Why do you do this?"

The short version is that he has this technology which (he says) works but has no money to play with. For anyone who may be interested, I believe he is looking for a financial partner.

Disclaimers: I am not involved in any way. I make no statements beyond the one I made above, that it appears to me that he has a live technology. And no offense meant to the brother who posts here, but I have no knowledge of his work.



Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[RaceBookJoe]

I have had a long time fascination with the toteboard. I learned not only how to handicap horses but also how to handicap the "handicappers". This was back in the 70's, before computers,simulcasting etc. It was much easier then. Sometimes I would go a whole NY meet just using the board, but that has changed dramatically....moreso than any other area of handicapping in my opinion. Speed/Pace etc handicapping still works as it always has, the prices have just gone down. Last minute and after the gate opens tote changes are really hard to play nowadays.
I find, like stated above, a horse that you feel wont run well, that should be supported at the windows because of consensus or whatever but is not, is usually a throw-out. Also, well supported 1st time starters are horses you should keep your eye on. Those 2 areas work best from what I am still seeing. Exotic pays in doubles,exactas still work like back in the day. Sometimes you just gotta dig a little deeper.
I would suggest reading anything ever written on the subject (some tote books are good, some are not), while taking for granted that much is outdated. You can still grab little bits of information and get to work on good/new ideas. That goes for every area of this game. Every year I go through some old books, some not much talked about. I learn from everything I read and study, whether the book/author is good or not. Sometimes you learn what to do and sometimes you learn what NOT to do. Best of luck to all.

[46zilzal]

With the "pulses" coming in from other places across the country, this method cannot hold the answers that it once did. Up on the simulcast control room, I see how these pulses are added to the pools and they are uneven to say the least.

[PaceAdvantage]

With the "pulses" coming in from other places across the country, this method cannot hold the answers that it once did. Up on the simulcast control room, I see how these pulses are added to the pools and they are uneven to say the least.On what basis can you make such a statement? Did you used to be a toteboard handicapper? Did you used to get "answers" from the tote, and now those answers don't appear anymore?

These generalized statements from a non-expert aren't very helpful. Obviously, the tote holds answers for SOME FOLKS, just not you. I would think that uneven "pulses" would actually tell you MORE than an even stream of pulses....

[Tape Reader]

With the "pulses" coming in from other places across the country, this method cannot hold the answers that it once did. Up on the simulcast control room, I see how these pulses are added to the pools and they are uneven to say the least.
IMO computers offer the tote board reader advantages that he only dreamed about in the past. I can now spend my time handicaping the tote board without being a slave to the chart paper.

[thespaah]

i do it... of course I use the tote as a supplement to handicapping from the PP's.. I check the exacta probables for anomolies...I look to see if longer shots are dominating the exacta probs..That's a sure sign that the horse with higer odds is a worth a play..some hanicappers recommend betting these exacta underalys to win..I do that sometimes.I will also include them in my exotics as well.

Another thing is if you can be patient and wait until near post time to bet, do so..late money coming in from wise guys and internet players is usually dead giveaway that a particular horse is live..I never bet more than 5 mins to post and usually I wait until 1 or 2 mins to post...Sometimes i get burned by betting the tote. But more often than not I can get pretty good info by watching the numbers..

[thespaah]

yeah really..the ML guy is just the person the track hired to render an opinion of how a horse matches up against the others the racing secreatry writes the race for.

The track handicapper is a public handicapper just like th guys in the newspaper or the various other PP publications..

If I see a say 5/2 ML fav being ignored to say 4 or 5-1. I will include that horse in my wagers.But only if that horse looks good on paper..But in certain cases I will go with the public and toss. For example.. No way am I betting a 4/5 shot in a $15k maiden claimer..That's a terrible favorite..If by chance that horse beats me, so be it.
The bottom line is while I don't try to play beat the favorite on every race, I view wagering on horses as a search for value. A legit favorite is a legit favorite and I will use them. However if my ROI is going ot be so crummy as in the example above I will indeed look elsewhere in the field for a value play..I will simply cut back on my investment for that race race..

[thespaah]

If I were in your shoes I would tell them to go take their eltitist, arrogant naysaying and piss up a tree..This is a forum. A free exchenge of ideas and opinions..

[thespaah]

I never let that happen..When I use the tote to help out I don't eliminate one selection on paper and replace it with a "tote live" horse. I just add the selection from the tote observation to my existing plays.

[eqitec]

See the attached for the extent to which I watch the board within my software. This is an actual race from today. I've left the name of the track and the horses out so anyone interested can try to pick the top 3 from the board. (the projected odds line is my own). After a couple of days I'll post the name of the track and the top 3 finishers.

[ryesteve]

See the attached
You have some strange ML figures there...

[JPinMaryland]

Some people really enjoy my analogies, so here's another one: this is like complaining that people give you a hard time when you tell them you have video of the loch ness monster, when you haven't shown them any footage yet.

I can understand that, I gave up posting my Nessie videos a long time ago. :mad:

[Spiderman]

See the attached for the extent to which I watch the board within my software. This is an actual race from today. I've left the name of the track and the horses out so anyone interested can try to pick the top 3 from the board. (the projected odds line is my own). After a couple of days I'll post the name of the track and the top 3 finishers.

I'll play: 7,12,13 arae the 'live' horses.

[ernie simons]

See the attached for the extent to which I watch the board within my software. This is an actual race from today. I've left the name of the track and the horses out so anyone interested can try to pick the top 3 from the board. (the projected odds line is my own). After a couple of days I'll post the name of the track and the top 3 finishers.
Looks like you're missing a few tote ticks. What happened to the 5 minutes between 15 & 10 mtp? Did none of these odds change in that 5 minutes?
Assuming there are 13 horses running, it must be a route. And judging by the odds on the board, not much class running. And since you have ticks missing from the tote, I'm guessing none of these "live" horses finished on top. My guess is all long shots itm. And your point is watching the tote board is folly??

[JPinMaryland]

$5 exacta: box 13/9

[eqitec]

The toteboard chart I displayed was from the 7th race at Kempton (UK) on Saturday. Which explains the unusual morning lines.
For those who noticed no odds changes, that's because I don't always get the changes for every interval. In which case I just copy the odds from the previous interval point and go on to the next one.
For those who took a shot, the race finish was 13-12. The $1 exacta paid $77. This was a 2 mile race, and the winner got 23 lbs from the favorite. Funny that it's name was "Featherlite".
In my opinion, following the toteboard action is both very interesting and essential, especially for spotting horses to include in the exotics. Most of my good exotic scores have come from a mixture of good handicapping and inclusion of longshots which got unexplainable betting action.

[JPinMaryland]

Dammit I knew I shouldnt have gone vertical!

[Spiderman]

I'll play: 7,12,13 arae the 'live' horses.

Thanks for the test. I'll move my tack to the UK.

[eqitec]

Care to take a whack at another one from a race today?

[Spiderman]

7,9

[spilparc]

7,8 and 10

[ryesteve]

For those who took a shot, the race finish was 13-12.
I can't speak for UK betting patterns, but generally around here, if a horse opens up well above the ML, and then in the last few odds updates, drops but is still above the ML, this isn't really "late action"... the odds are just heading to where some people think should've been in the first place... and the horse being dead on the board for much of the betting is generally a negative indicator.

[ryesteve]

Care to take a whack at another one from a race today?I'd say that a 1,7,9 box is a sure thing, otherwise you would've picked a different race to use as an example :)

[Tape Reader]

4

[allwaysthere]

hi ernie can you post your toteboard method i am interested thanks ...charlie

[raybo]

I'll give my best tote spot play via PM or email but not here for obvious reasons. It hits at 40% rate @ 4/1 to 7/1.

[HUSKER55]

#7, #8, #9

:)

husker55

[jonnielu]

With the "pulses" coming in from other places across the country, this method cannot hold the answers that it once did. Up on the simulcast control room, I see how these pulses are added to the pools and they are uneven to say the least.

The method still holds answers, it was always a piece of the puzzle, it may not be as critical in these modern times, but the answers that the tote can give have never been glaringly obvious. It was always another piece of the puzzle, and it still is.

What should be understood about this method is that it is used to measure the horse that is in today's race, that you can not measure well thru past performances. If you are a good handicapper, regardless of the particular angle that rules your point of view, this horse is usually the one that you are afraid of because you know that you don't have a solid measure from past performances.

In the past, and still today, stables that know what they are doing and do it well, send this horse out today with every intention of winning on purpose and quietly take the 15 - 1 ML down to 9 - 1 over 15 minutes time. Or, from 8 - 1 to 5 - 1, or from 12 - 1 to 10 - 1.

The tote board analyst may well miss the whole thing unless he/she is looking for it in the first place. And, there is still the question of whether or not the win comes off as planned. So, this information must still be well co-related with other pieces of the puzzle for a good fit. The modern wrinkle on this is that every race, with a full field is usually more competitive then yesteryear.

25 years ago, the horse that you may have been afraid of would often be 1 of 4 that you could see as contenders, today, it may be 1 of 6 in a 12 horse field where you still only see 4 contenders.

Chances are, if you do not even recognize this horse as a contender, it is very difficult to be looking for more info on the tote board, while you are comparing 1 contender to the other with the tote board.

Another modern wrinkle is that today, the public is more likely to bet a jockey, or trainer, or simply a number. While a stable can feed the place pool and still cleanup with an unseen bet on a 20-1 horse that floats up to 35 - 1.

In the past, and still today, the usefulness of the tote depends on the other factors that it is related to.

jdl

[podonne]

Sorry for this "i read it in a study" note, but I read an article in an economics journal studying whether the racetrack pools are efficient markets (back in business school when I had access to that kind of thing, which I don't now).

Ths conslusion was that there was a viable betting system around differences in the win-place-show and exacta pools if you made a series of small bets at 1 mtp, but that the advantage dissapeared once all the money "after the post" came in. The thoery was that large computer bettors place enough in bets at seconds before post time to eliminate any existing inefficiency.

So the four markets are terribly efficient, meaning thier isn't much to be made by wagering on horses at different prices in different pools.

Anyway, that was thier opinion and it was at a major track, NYRA i think.

[podonne]

PaceAdvantage and eqitec,

I started collecting minute-by-minute odds information about a month ago, for to study just this kind of thing. I'd be interested in trading data with anyone who has been doing it for longer, or finding out where you get your data from. PM is ok if you don't want to say publicly (actually, you probably don't want to say publicly.)

Phil

[PaceAdvantage]

I was collecting data off of BrisBET (now TwinSpires) before they changed ownership. Once they changed ownership, my program no longer worked, and I haven't had the desire to update the program and get it working again....

It was interesting, but I found more productive use of my time elsewhere. Not saying I won't go back to studying this kind of thing, just that it's on my back burner now...

[allwaysthere]

how do you use your toteboard analysis?.....charlie

[applebee]

heres a toteplay aimed at horses 10/1 or higher ml.
horse must open at least half m/l horses 20/1 or more must open 8/1 or less.
bet must be verified by @50% place bet OR exacta anomoly.
As horse drifts up in odds @12mins.to post watch this can vary by a few
minutes horse must take a drop in odds by a few points (horse is 14/1 with 11 minutes to post and drops to 10/1 at 10 minutes to post).The key is at betting time you want him close or above m/l.
I play this in races where the numbers just wont work with some surprising results. track and try good luck:)

[raybo]

heres a toteplay aimed at horses 10/1 or higher ml.
horse must open at least half m/l horses 20/1 or more must open 8/1 or less.
bet must be verified by @50% place bet OR exacta anomoly.
As horse drifts up in odds @12mins.to post watch this can vary by a few
minutes horse must take a drop in odds by a few points (horse is 14/1 with 11 minutes to post and drops to 10/1 at 10 minutes to post).The key is at betting time you want him close or above m/l.
I play this in races where the numbers just wont work with some surprising results. track and try good luck:)

This is similar to what I do only I don't care what the horse opens at, only what happens between 10 MTP and post time. Any sizeable "smart money" would not be placed early in the wagering because of the lack of pool $ and the resulting dramatic drop in odds at that time causing others to jump on the bandwagon thus, driving the odds even lower. This can be very misleading, IMO. "Smart money" isn't very smart when they tip their hand in such a manner. If the money comes later in the betting and is sizeable enough to affect the odds then, more than likely, it's not coming from more than 1 or 2 wagerers. This represents unknown "public" information, especially if the odds go back up some and then drop again, this can happen several times between 10 MTP and post time.

If you can't figure out why this is happening, beware of this horse. Somebody knows something you don't.

[andicap]

heres a toteplay aimed at horses 10/1 or higher ml.
horse must open at least half m/l horses 20/1 or more must open 8/1 or less.
bet must be verified by @50% place bet OR exacta anomoly.
As horse drifts up in odds @12mins.to post watch this can vary by a few
minutes horse must take a drop in odds by a few points (horse is 14/1 with 11 minutes to post and drops to 10/1 at 10 minutes to post).The key is at betting time you want him close or above m/l.
I play this in races where the numbers just wont work with some surprising results. track and try good luck:)


This method is similar to what Mark Cramer has written about doing in "Lesser of evil" or chaotic races. He looks for an opening bump (maybe not right at the start but within a minute or two). and a couple more bumps as the horse drifts up in price.

The corrolary is the favorite who opens up at a mediocre price and gets hammered after the post parade when the public thinks it haas found a bargain. I don't necessarily mean the ML favorite because so many morning lines stink, but the horse that to an astute handicapper looks like it should be the public's top choice. That's one good reason for reading the DRF because you're seeing the same information the public is reading and you can react to it. High Beyer horse is sitting at 3-1 instead of the 9-5 it should be? that's trouble.

[togachartboy]

I've looked at ATR Pro and it seems like it may have the answer, but I'm looking for software to lessen the burden of pen/pencil & paper exacta and daily double charting. Can you point me in the right direction? Have there been any books on this style of handicapping. I have been charting for over twenty years as a casual summertime handicapper and am getting pumped for Saratoga.

Comparing the data between daily doubles & exactas while charting sometimes comes up with interesting information. Obviously going to the window matters most. Although nothing is a sure thing, I can usually make better assumptions of risk by throwing out a fav i certain situations, wheeling certain combinations and picking up other impulses of cash flow on the toteboard.

Charting can be quite rigorous, with the addition of internet instant toteboard data, I am interested in knowing if someone developed a program that assists chart handicappers yet.

[point given]

heres a toteplay aimed at horses 10/1 or higher ml.
horse must open at least half m/l horses 20/1 or more must open 8/1 or less.
bet must be verified by @50% place bet OR exacta anomoly.
As horse drifts up in odds @12mins.to post watch this can vary by a few
minutes horse must take a drop in odds by a few points (horse is 14/1 with 11 minutes to post and drops to 10/1 at 10 minutes to post).The key is at betting time you want him close or above m/l.
I play this in races where the numbers just wont work with some surprising results. track and try good luck:)

Right on. I had a couple of plays like this last weekend. One I capitalized on and the other not. The first was a 15/1 ML who i put in a pick 4 play , as a similarly connected horse won at $$$$ the previous day. i thought I was sunk when he opened at 4/1 when 2 chalks had won the first two races, but he drifted up to 12/1 and wired the field. In looking at the Wp's going into the last leg, I expected a small payout as the last race was a 4 horse field with a lone speed. Alas, the WP was over $1200. and the last race was a nice workout for the speedplay. the other play was a 15/1ML opened at 3/1 first time starter who drifted to 7/1 , i went with a 2nd time starter and they ran 1-2 , dummy ! But the pools are small at this track and it doesn't take much to tilt the odds. OTOh, i remember the same type thing happening at CD a couple of years ago when I had a 11/1 horse win and it paid 8/1 . Probably a past post thing there though, but thats another story. :rolleyes:

[varocky]

As a long time charter, I'd love to find software to make the job easier. I've tried traditional handicapping, but I keep coming back to charting. It's exciring when you run across one of those horses that you just "know" is going to win based on the way the money is coming in.

My favorite book is The Toteboard Is Alive and Well, by Milt Gaines. Some really good stuff based on different kinds of patterns based on opening odds as compared to the morning line.
Let me know if you come up with anything on th software.

[applebee]

ok today ap race 5 the 1 and the 2 are qualified on early money .will post back.

[applebee]

the 2 is the only one would like to get a little better odds but im a go

[applebee]

off the board darn

[allwaysthere]

pls post the toteboard method thanks charlie

[allwaysthere]

where can i get this book thanks charlie...

[Dave Schwartz]

Amazon.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/0896509435/ref=dp_olp_used?ie=UTF8&condition=used

[BeatTheChalk]

like to hear from you guys & exchage info

I was following the " Pools " - trying to find a horse that had a large amount
of money in the win pool .. vs a small amount in the show pool. Using a ratio
of at least 9 to 1. It is almost impossible to do these days.
So I called my friend the Witch Doctor and asked him what to do :jump:

He said: " The last refuge for tote players -- is the Percentage Column. The
board at Brisnet lists the Percent of the pool that is wagered on the horse
to win.. place.. and show."

The idea is to find One horse if possible .. That has a Larger percent bet to
Win .. Less bet to Place...and less bet to Show. The Doc says this a good
place to start.
I have just started to check it out - and of course - as with any system
on the planet ..the first time I use it -- It works. :bang: :lol:
So there you go. Give it a shot. :ThmbUp:

[allwaysthere]

yes please share the info with me on tote board .....thanks charlie

[raybo]

See the attached for the extent to which I watch the board within my software. This is an actual race from today. I've left the name of the track and the horses out so anyone interested can try to pick the top 3 from the board. (the projected odds line is my own). After a couple of days I'll post the name of the track and the top 3 finishers.

My spot play would have caused a play on the 12, assuming that the horse wasn't ridden by the track's top jockey or trained by the track's top trainer.

[raybo]

Care to take a whack at another one from a race today?

No play here, although the 3 and 4 are tempting as show bets.