What would you spend money on?

[Rick]

Since the subject came up this week in my discussions with others this week, I thought I'd ask others what they thought about what kinds of handicapping products and services are worth spending money on.

Here's my list from best to worst:

1. Information. We all need information to even start handicapping, and if it's unique information it may allow us to get an edge.

2. Databases. Usually don't contain all of the available information but allow you to quickly test concepts.

3. Good Software. Speeds the handicapping process and allows you a limited capability to test different ideas. Of course, the more flexible it is, the more useful it will be. Good software also can create combined ratings that have more value than the individual components.

4. Studies done by others. Can be useful if they uncover very good or very bad factors and can save you a lot of research time, but usually don't look at enough of the really interesting combinations.

5. Books that give you ideas for angles or new concepts that you can test and possibly incorporate into your handicapping.


That's about where I draw the line on useful things that I'm willing to pay for. Continuing with the list, I'll mention things that I don't think are worth paying for.

6. Books that talk about subjective, non-testable theories and give examples of what a great handicapper the author is using races that have previously been run. Vague principles are usually stated without specific rules about how to apply them. May declare that "every race is different" or something like that to justify why they can't say anything objective.

7. Bad Software. Software that does little more than offer selections or a betting line without any visibility about what is being done internally. Hard to learn anything from this.

8. Selections. Somebody gives you their opinion about who the winner will be in a race or races and offers a subjective opinion to explain why they chose that horse. Sometimes several horses are offered in each race so that when one checks the results for the top selections and finds them lacking, the selector can say that he wouldn't have bet the race that way and you're at fault for not betting properly. Practically useless information in my opinion. Nothing to be learned from it to improve your own handicapping and makes you dependent on the ability of another rather than your own. Of course, it does allow you to blame someone else if you lose, which has some value to many people.



Tell me what you think.

[kitts]

I can hardly improve on your list. I do not do the database thing, though. I have tried many times to interpret all the stuff that was winning yesterday and it has never clicked with me. I fear it is an ego thing, but what the heck. If software could somehow question my selected paceline, that might be a plus. Or not.

[Rick]

I guess I forgot seminars. I'd put those in the same category as books, both good and bad depending on the approach.

[andicap]

Mainly, I want information that will save me time. If someone will compute track profiles for me so i don't have to do it, I'd buy them. I've found no place where I can buy them as a single product. HDW has them, but I've got to subscribe to the software. HTR too.
I want something like the excellent track profile set up in the old Brohamer software that had to be manually inputed (they eventually sold one in which it was automatic but the $60 was rather pricey).
The MPH software gave you nice charts that told you graphically at a glance how a track was playing.

I feel with a good track profile I can go to any track and have a fighting chance. Without one, I would be at a big disadvantage, not only because i wouldn't know how the track is playing but if a horse might move up because of a previous bias that has changed.

[formula_2002]

Rick, well written and right headed..

To date, I think the handicapping "weapons" (factors) have been well developed.

Now a "delivery system" (analysis) has to be developed.

Don't excuse the metaphors, I'm "drafting" behind a moving Bush..

http://globalwinningpicks.homestead.com/GLOBALWINNINGPICKSX.html

[Rick]

My reason for starting this thread was that I had a discussion with another member and disagreed with him about what customers really want or need. Now, I realize that the members here may not be typical of players in general but I wondered if I was really all that out of touch with what people really want. I don't spend much money on anything any more but I would if more things that I really could use were available at a reasonable price. Is it more profitable to sell the low-level products and services to the inexperienced horse players or is it better to sell high-end products and services to the experienced players? The inexperienced players are easier to sell dreams to but they probably have less money to spend and won't come back when what you promised them doesn't make them rich. The experienced players probably have more money to spend, but only on something that's really helpful to them. I'm hoping that there's a market for the really worthwhile stuff and that more sellers realize it.

[formula_2002]

Marking is a wonderful thing...Some people have asked why I dont charge for my picks..

The answer is "I'm waiting for my public picks to become so accurate , that some one person will pay me to STOP posting them"

Stop by my site and let me know your comments

Regards

Joe M

http://globalwinningpicks.homestead.com/GLOBALWINNINGPICKSX.html

[Line Mover]

Originally posted by Rick
Continuing with the list, I'll mention things that I don't think are worth paying for.

6. Books that talk about subjective, non-testable theories and give examples of what a great handicapper the author is using races that have previously been run. Vague principles are usually stated without specific rules about how to apply them. May declare that "every race is different" or something like that to justify why they can't say anything objective.

7. Bad Software. Software that does little more than offer selections or a betting line without any visibility about what is being done internally. Hard to learn anything from this.

8. Selections. Somebody gives you their opinion about who the winner will be in a race or races and offers a subjective opinion to explain why they chose that horse. Sometimes several horses are offered in each race so that when one checks the results for the top selections and finds them lacking, the selector can say that he wouldn't have bet the race that way and you're at fault for not betting properly. Practically useless information in my opinion. Nothing to be learned from it to improve your own handicapping and makes you dependent on the ability of another rather than your own. Of course, it does allow you to blame someone else if you lose, which has some value to many people.

Tell me what you think.

These three - especially #6 - sound like a person everyone has bumped into at one time or another - be it at the track, at the betting parlor, or even online.

[BillW]

Rick,

You kind of hinted at it in #2 and #3 ... solid and flexable analysis software. Typically analysis as referenced in #4 is not quite as universal (to varying degrees) as presented. It is a great help to have software to both prove others' studies and to be able to perform your own.

Of course not much is available commercially and must be homebrewed.

Bill

[formula_2002]

bill i agree.

per my previous note:


Now a "delivery system" (analysis) has to be developed.

[Rick]

formula...,

Well, I'm glad to see someone else blatantly advertising so sq764 won't have a monopoly on it.

Bill,

You're exactly right. I don't buy any software now because there isn't anything available that would allow me to do what I'm doing now and test other ideas that might improve it. Some of the best software doesn't include some of the data that I need and those that do are either exorbitantly expensive or inflexible about how I could combine information to come up with my own rating. But, if I were willing to look for some alternatives to the unavailable data, I'm sure I could use several of the available products.

[formula_2002]

Rick, its not an advertisement but rather an attemp to include others in an ongoing study of data, now in its 3rd year.

In addition to the free picks there are three free reports .
The odds by odds results of over 1600 picks and well as a track by track and surface conditions report.

Looking to "spur" on an interchange of ideas taht we can discuss here


"You'll have to agree, we undervalue that which is free."

how fitting!!




Regards

Joe M

[Lefty]

Formula, I go to your page and don't see any picks. I see E-mail you for picks. Under that I see 2-21-02 Sat.doc. I fig. it's a misprint so I DL it. It won't open as I get unexpected error. A guy asked me to check out your page as he thght he was doing something wrong. I don't think he was. Anybody else have trble or find any picks?
Is the e-mail device a way to get an e-mail address for advertisement?

[formula_2002]

Lefty, a password is used to open the picks file.

A passed word is issued to anyone who request the information..

I dont want to send free picks to those that do not Specifically request them.

Regards

Joe M

[Rick]

formula,

I don't really care if you are or not. My beef was about one person being allowed to do it and nobody else. But, I think PA explained that adequately. I'm still in favor of having a separate advertising area with compensation to PA for posting there so this whole thing will be worth his effort.

I'll take a look at your site if it contains something other than just selections and results.

[Lefty]

Rick, I always like to read about new products; especially software, but I agree with you, a separate page would be nice.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Mainly, I want information that will save me time. If someone will compute track profiles for me so i don't have to do it, I'd buy them. ......

TrackMaster has a free profile program, but the charts files will cost you $1.50 a day. Not really bad if you play one track.
There is a LOT of good info in the files, though. If you had a hankering to put it into Access, you would have a really fine DB.
(I do this for NYRA, FL, PEN, and others at times).
You could use Game Theory's chart parser - free data, just some time involved in getting it into a spreadsheet or Access.