Bubbles
08-03-2007, 12:23 AM
I rarely make forays into this neck of the woods, but I stumbled upon something in looking over tomorrow's card at the Spa. In the opener, the 5 horse, Great Point, has a bunch of unimpressive-looking recent starts on the dirt (I'm tossing his last, an also-ran on the grass).
April 21st, KEE: 6th, beaten five lengths
May 3rd, CD: 5th, beaten 6 3/4
June 7th, CD: 6th, beaten 8 3/4
Not exactly an impressive track record. But a further look into the PP's tells a story. The 4/21 start was over Polytrack, and you can't base a future dirt start off of it very much at the Spa (at least that's what I've found so far). The form of CD horses can differ dramatically between Kentucky and the Spa (must be the Big Red Spring water, right Tom? :lol: ). He's one that looks ripe to improve on a different surface, and you know he can do it, as he started the year with two solid runs at GP.
I also like this horse's back class. In 2006, this horse ran a very good second in a G3 at GP to eventual Derby winner Barbaro, and came from out of the clouds to do it. You also know he can run on an off track as well (50% chance of rain Friday at the Spa), as that race was run over a sloppy surface.
The Friday opener is hardly a field of world-beaters. Great Point's not a press-stopping value on the ML at 5-1 (curse the Contessa horses for being coupled and knocking the price down), but if it drifts up to 7 or 8 to 1, I start liking that horse a LOT.
April 21st, KEE: 6th, beaten five lengths
May 3rd, CD: 5th, beaten 6 3/4
June 7th, CD: 6th, beaten 8 3/4
Not exactly an impressive track record. But a further look into the PP's tells a story. The 4/21 start was over Polytrack, and you can't base a future dirt start off of it very much at the Spa (at least that's what I've found so far). The form of CD horses can differ dramatically between Kentucky and the Spa (must be the Big Red Spring water, right Tom? :lol: ). He's one that looks ripe to improve on a different surface, and you know he can do it, as he started the year with two solid runs at GP.
I also like this horse's back class. In 2006, this horse ran a very good second in a G3 at GP to eventual Derby winner Barbaro, and came from out of the clouds to do it. You also know he can run on an off track as well (50% chance of rain Friday at the Spa), as that race was run over a sloppy surface.
The Friday opener is hardly a field of world-beaters. Great Point's not a press-stopping value on the ML at 5-1 (curse the Contessa horses for being coupled and knocking the price down), but if it drifts up to 7 or 8 to 1, I start liking that horse a LOT.