Improvement

[Doug]

Looking for some input on what other handicappers look at to try and spot an improving horse.

thanks

Doug

[Fastracehorse]

2nd-time starters naturally improve by about 6 Beyer points [ providing ALL SYSTEMS GO OF COURSE ].

fffastt

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse
2nd-time starters naturally improve by about 6 Beyer points [ providing ALL SYSTEMS GO OF COURSE ].

fffastt WHat is the value of 6 beyer points?Depending on the length of the race ,it changes,so what happens if the improved horse changes distance as well?

One thing is (if you use interior fractions)the horse should show some ability to distribute his speed more evenly after a couple of races.You can find some nice place or show horses that look awful but run their race consistently,irregardless where they are in the race.Sometimes if the pace is slow they press or lead,but get passed late,or maybe if the pace is fast,they lag far behind and stagger into contention late in the race.But speedwise,he runs the same way each time .

[dav4463]

I like horses that show a Beyer pattern of small improvements of less than 10 points, but still have not equaled or exceeded their previous best Beyer of last 10 races. A jump up in class with improving numbers is a plus also......I also like horses that were improving and then threw in a clunker, especially if the clunker was at a higher level and the horse drops to a more competitive level today. Another thing I like is a horse who shows renewed early speed last time out for the first time in a while and weakened in the stretch. A positive jockey switch is another indicator of improvement, especially if the jock has run well with the horse before. Post position changes can also indicate improvement in some cases. For horses with 3 or more declining speed figures, I almost never play unless they drop in class to a level they have won at before.

[hurrikane]

one of my favs I use at the little bull rings is a change in the running line.
A horse that usually starts slow came out quick in his last start.
A horse that quits finished strong in his last.
they should come back within 7-15 days. (these puppies don't stay fit for long)
outside of that form 'sheets' and appearance are the best indication I've seen.

[Zaf]

During the paddock inspection, if you look very carefully, you can see the hypodermic needle that the trainer forgot to remove. Works every time. LOL

ZAFONIC

[so.cal.fan]

Fillies and Mares often are kind of unpredictable early in the year, due to their breeding season cycles.
An angle I have noticed for years is mares from So. America.
Their cycles are often different, due to the fact they come from below the equator. Most are at least 6 months younger than our No. American or European runners.
Very often, a good barn will run an Argentine or Chillean mare at Santa Anita's winter meet and they will win at a nice price.
Newly turned three year olds who can finish well, are also signs of improving form.

[JimG]

Originally posted by Doug
Looking for some input on what other handicappers look at to try and spot an improving horse.

thanks

Doug

Signs of life in the last race when compared to the 2 prior. Maybe a middle move and then a fade or a change in tactics..Early speed when normally doesn't show, vice versa.

Jim

[andicap]

Reads "Odds Must be Crazy" best book on form cycles. Don't take everything as gospel, etc., but a good guide as to when horses are improving or not. I use Ragozin's theories with Beyers and while it's not perfect, it has netted some excellent payoffs especiallyin regards to

a) 3 yr olds
b) bounces -- there's more to it than you think. The one thing about the bounce these days is that with drugs you see more horses pairing up -- putting in two good races in a row. If you have time, I suggest tracking the trainers who's horses seem to put in 2 "tops" and then regress. You can make money betting against these horses. Best example I can remember is "Thunder Rumble a few years back, won the Jim Dandy and the Travers. He was a big favorite in the next race (the Woodward maybe), and flopped.
Classic instance of paired tops and big bounce.

[Fastracehorse]

The horse will still improve changing distances.

However, the adjustment would have to be made.

The Beyer contains a pace element so one does not need to look at interior fractions.

fffastt

[delayjf]

I'd agree with andicap, but would also advise taking a look at Fotias's "blinker off" who incoporates pace into the form cycle picture, simular to Raggozin.

[Fastracehorse]

A 2,3, or 4, year old coming off his first lay-off: 10 Beyer point improvement.

That is 4 unexpected lengths to most handicappers.

fffastt

[hurrikane]

Ok ffffast.
you've said this a couple of times so I'm going to bite.
What do you mean 'The Beyer contains a pace element so you don't need to look at interior fractions'?

[andicap]

Originally posted by delayjf
I'd agree with andicap, but would also advise taking a look at Fotias's "blinker off" who incoporates pace into the form cycle picture, simular to Raggozin.

I read Blinkers Off, a good read, but I've seen absolutely no evidence that his theories work with anything but his own numbers -- and even then I haven't tested them. In other words you can't use BRIS or HDW or HTR figs with Fotias' theories.
No one on this board has said they are succeeding using his book. I've heard people say Fotias is a very successful bettor, cashing large tickets. Maybe he's like Pizzolla -- cashes large tickets infrequently. That is, it could be that his theories point to occasional live longshots that you need to cash in on -- rather than routinely point to $10 winners.

I don't know, just theorizing here since no one has posted here about having success with "Blinkers Off" theories.

[Fastracehorse]

But I don't necessarily need a strong figure before I'll considering USING the animal.

I consider the b's off move as a threat via trainer intention.

Having said that I view b's on the same way.

Simply put, I respect any change that I percieve as trainer intent, hard to put an exact # on these horses. Often they are dangerous overlays.

fffastt

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally posted by Doug
Looking for some input on what other handicappers look at to try and spot an improving horse.

thanks

Doug

Maiden Special Weight
- making 2nd career start after a layoff with an equipment change
of added blinkers and/or 1st time Lasix. Works better if combined with a positive jockey switch. The time off could be the barn tweaking its horse for a winning effort next out.

All Others
- 2nd time blinkers today if it has a non-winning improvement of 10+ lengths in previous race. Preferrably out of the money for
higher odds next out.
- has nothing but a bunch of high single/double-digit numbers in its PPs and then all of a sudden blasts early speed its never shown before and dies into the stretch (public workout?). Sharp if coming back within 10 days.

All of these are pretty much basic. No secrets here. :)

[Fastracehorse]

My adjusted Beyer is based partly on the key race theory.

Not to condescend to anyone but key races are a rough, but useful, handicapping tool to identify strong horses.

I am assuming that the pace in key races are stronger than that of more average races. The Beyer I believe, takes into account not only final times and track variants but it also innately measures pace.

Afterall the sprint, for example, is a race of progressively slower fractions. The Beyer is a measure of this. This progression is different amongst differernt abilities of horses generally.

This may seem alien to you but approach it with an open mind.

Lastly 2 things: 1) I never use DRF fractional splits or final times. This ignoring of popualr pace theories has not hurt my handicapping. I believe Davidowitz agrees with me. 2) I use adjusted Beyers! Key-word: Adjusted.

fffastt

[Tee]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse


I believe Davidowitz agrees with me.

fffastt


Since Steven Davidowitz was was playing thoroughbreds & developing handicapping insights before you were born - I believe you agree with Davidowitz, not the other way around.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse
. 2) I use adjusted Beyers! Key-word: Adjusted.

fffastt

OK, since is the 10th time you have mentioned that you use "adjusted" Beyers, can you give us an idea HOW you adjust them. It does us no good to know that you do adjust them. Do you adjust based on running lines (giving more credit for early speed than if he runs in the middle or rear of the pack?)?
If you adjust for key races, do you use the Davidowitz method of circling races in charts OR do you use Beyers to identify faster than average races.

It is my theory that using just the winners Beyer to identify a fast race could be misleading, that you would do better to average the top two or three Beyers to see if it was fast field, not just a fast winner.

[hurrikane]

fffaaaaasssssssst
yeah..you should probably explain. Unless you are inserting a pace adjustment into the Beyer (which no longer makes it a Beyer..maybe its a BBBeeeyyyeeerr) there is no pace acknowledgement in a Beyer, at least not the one Andy makes.

[Fastracehorse]

And Howe was born before Gretzky.

fffastt

[Lindsay]

Fastracehorse wrote: "And Howe was born before Gretzky."

Yeah, and both of them had to have been on drugs, because they were better than everyone else. Well, actually, when they were in slumps, it was because they temporarily stopped taking drugs. Have I captured the thinking in your DRF post, Fastracehorse?

[Fastracehorse]

My speed fig is not one dimensional but yes, the key race element is largely based on early speed types.

Again the theory being this: If an excellent 25 claimer duels early with a 50 claimer he'll tire worse than if he was duelling against another 25 claimer.

So, if this excellent 25 claimer drops to his group he may be an overlay. Most likely due to the fact he quit much worse than he would have against foes of comparable ability.

This may appear simplistic but being able to assign an accurate speed figure to a well beaten horses turns out to be an excellent method of finding overlays.

They don't have to be droppers.

There could be an amazing N1X that annhilated every horse. But the rest of the group could be above average. Meaning a group of overlays.

Yes, my chart work was exactly like Davidowitz's [ I think ], except that now, I have a figure that eliminates hours and hours of tedious chart work.

Chart work is something I recommend to anybody learning about the game. It opens a world of new insights.

One insight taught me to ignore printed teletimer fractions and final times. They vary far too much. I do however, believe in race-shape and track biases strongly-I am careful not to finalize a bias that really isn't there.

fffastt

[so.cal.fan]

Fast, you've been reading my mail?

"Again the theory being this: If an excellent 25 claimer duels early with a 50 claimer he'll tire worse than if he was duelling against another 25 claimer.

So, if this excellent 25 claimer drops to his group he may be an overlay. Most likely due to the fact he quit much worse than he would have against foes of comparable ability.

This may appear simplistic but being able to assign an accurate speed figure to a well beaten horses turns out to be an excellent method of finding overlays".


Now, so. cal. fan is too simple to use, let alone develop any speed figures, but if your figures are based on the above, I would have to say they are pretty good.

[Show Me the Wire]

A. Afterall the sprint, for example, is a race of progressively slower fractions. The Beyer is a measure of this. This progression is different amongst differernt abilities of horses generally.


I assume you mean the final time shows a progression of slower fractions. An effective closer runs progressively faster fractions into the slowing fractions of the leader(s).

B. This progression is different amongst differernt abilities of horses generally.

Agreed, a faster horse with stamina can carry its natural speed further. Class may be defined as a horse carrying its speed over a distance of ground, while bearing weight.

C. The Beyer I believe, takes into account not only final times and track variants but it also innately measures pace.

So does final time and any other speed figure, because pace is part of final time. Final time is a function of pace.

Not to be condenscending, all final time and pace or speed figures accomplish is giving an objective measurement of a horse's performance on a certain day, on a specfic track, against a specific group of horses. Beyers, adjusted Beyers, final time, pace figures, and speed figures do not capture the eagerness of the runner, the stride of the horse, the shortcomings of the other horses and etc.

So adjust, adjust, and adjust.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

My reality is different than yours.

[so.cal.fan]

SMTW writes:

"Agreed, a faster horse with stamina can carry its natural speed further. Class may be defined as a horse carrying its speed over a distance of ground, while bearing weight"

Gee, another guy reading my mail..........;)

PA does have some damn good handicappers!

[Show Me the Wire]

so.cal.fan:

Of course I read your mail, at least ones you send to me.....LOL.

I also remember our posts discussing the esoteric theories of class and such.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Nature acts without intent

[Show Me the Wire]

so.cal.fan:

How about this for the bright zone! Maybe speed figures and pace figures are not as accurate at certain tracks, becuase of the jockey colony. Imagine if most of the jockeys have a propensity to wrap up on their horses, if the jock feels his horse does not have a chance to win.

Might explain a few form reversals also.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Nature acts without intent may the same be said for jockeys?

[Zaf]

Originally posted by andicap
I read Blinkers Off, a good read, but I've seen absolutely no evidence that his theories work with anything but his own numbers -- and even then I haven't tested them. In other words you can't use BRIS or HDW or HTR figs with Fotias' theories.
No one on this board has said they are succeeding using his book. I've heard people say Fotias is a very successful bettor, cashing large tickets. Maybe he's like Pizzolla -- cashes large tickets infrequently. That is, it could be that his theories point to occasional live longshots that you need to cash in on -- rather than routinely point to $10 winners.

I don't know, just theorizing here since no one has posted here about having success with "Blinkers Off" theories.


Have any handicappers out there used the XRTA's

ZAFONIC

[so.cal.fan]

I think a handicapper must be familiar with his own tracks.
I am not too good a handicapper, but I am really bad at tracks other than So. Cal. So are many other people I know.
Leads me to believe that every area is different and there are no universal "angles" that work everywhere.
Perhaps, SMTW is right. Could be the riders. Probably the trainers as well.

[Rick]

socal,

A very astute observation. I think it's more important to choose tracks that fit your method than it is to try to improve your method. But, if you really want to play a specific circuit, with say 3 tracks, you'd better understand the differences between them very well. The closest thing to universal angles involve claims, but even there you have differences in the rules (jail time) and percentage of horses claimed so some tracks will still be a lot better than others.

[Fastracehorse]

E-mail me at fastracehorse@hotmail.com because my other address is forked up.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Like I said,

I beleive pace is part of the Beyer.

Ask U'reself this abstract question: "What does the Beyer measure really?"

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Repetition my good friend.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

"Not to be condenscending, all final time and pace or speed figures accomplish is giving an objective measurement of a horse's performance on a certain day, on a specfic track, against a specific group of horses. Beyers, adjusted Beyers, final time, pace figures, and speed figures do not capture the eagerness of the runner, the stride of the horse, the shortcomings of the other horses and etc."

I disagree:

a) Final times do not give a worthy obj. meas'm't.

b) Pace is in a good speed figure.

c) Beyers are a good objective meas'm't.

d) Especially if I adjuast, adjust, and, adjust.

fffastt

[cj]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse
Like I said,

I beleive pace is part of the Beyer.

Ask U'reself this abstract question: "What does the Beyer measure really?"

fffastt

Why do you think pace is part of the Beyer? I don't get it, but I know the guys who make the Beyers have the hardest time with extreme fast and extreme slow paces.

CJ

[Tom]

Originally posted by teeitup
Since Steven Davidowitz was was playing thoroughbreds & developing handicapping insights before you were born - I believe you agree with Davidowitz, not the other way around.

Post of the Day!
Congratulations <G>
You win two free passs to the War Room tonight. Enjoy.
(PS - NO SMOKING)

[Tom]

Originally posted by Rick
socal,

A very astute observation. I think it's more important to choose tracks that fit your method than it is to try to improve your method. But, if you really want to play a specific circuit, with say 3 tracks, you'd better understand the differences between them very well. The closest thing to universal angles involve claims, but even there you have differences in the rules (jail time) and percentage of horses claimed so some tracks will still be a lot better than others.

Which is why I use HTR as my primary program. I can scan the performance of every track running and look for ones that offer a menue of the food I enjoy. For instance, at FL, there were a lot of longshots, but in the analysis, less than 8% of them were hit using standard HTR longshot indicators. I know what not to use at FL, and I can also look at other tracks and find those offer better W% of HTR factors. Since I look at all races on my computer screen, they are all my home track nowadays.
I play where my strengths are winning. I love to scan proficles and find tracks where lat speed is winning-it usually pays more because everyone is speed oriented. Kind of like going on a picnic and checking out the weather report- no sense going if they are calling for rain.

[Rick]

Tom,

HTR is probably the one I would choose if I were to use anyone else's software. It doesn't have everything I need, but it does have the extremely useful benefit of allowing you to inexpensively build up a database of all tracks.

[Fastracehorse]

I asked this following question earlier to Hurrikane.

What does the Beyer measure really??

If U think about that for a while maybe U will suggest a speed figure isn't just one dimensional.

fffastt

[cj]

Here is an example...

One horse runs :45 1:11
One horse runs :47 1:11

Both win on the lead and get the same speed figure, how is the pace figured in here?

CJ

[Fastracehorse]

My adjd Beyer does??

Take a look at this post from Gulfstream in March. I hope U recognize the significance of the key word ANOTHER.

Today's winner at Gulfstream Park is Fastracehorse!! Congrats Fast you nailed another nice longshot $45.60 to put you over the top. Way to go !!

1) Fastracehorse 3 wins, 1 show = $122.30

2) RbeanBlossom 3 wins, 3 place, 1 show, 1 DD = $ 83.80

3) SilverBullet 3 wins, 3 place, 1 show = $83.10

4) JJHammond 2 wins, 2 place, 2 show = $54.20

5) Jack300S 1 win, 2 place, 2 show = $32.90

6) DowMorris 2 place, 4 show = $22.70

7) PaceMaster 1 win, 2 place, 1 show = $26.60

8) Geotie 1 win = $13.60

If U need the link it is available.

fffastt

[Tom]

Not Florida, Finger Lakes.
And the most common LS factors hit 8% there.
This is no problem. I know not to use them there. They work well at other tracks. I play them there.
That is the point - the Tester tells me what is working and where.
I go where things are working today.

[Derek2U]

Sir: Forget about these dimwits, tell me what & how you adjust
the Beyers and I'll be sure to give you 20% if they score big.
hehe ... Quite seriously, I read your posts, I accept what the logic
of your posts, now tell me something more.

[cj]

I don't know what the regulars here think, but fastracehorse sure smells like RayGordon. Hope I'm wrong!

CJ

[Derek2U]

Who, prayTeLL, is Ray Gordon?

[cj]

He showed up bragging of his Beyer adjustment and his site, posted a couple hundred times in a few days, then vanished when he was beaten up here.

CJ

[Tom]

Originally posted by Derek2U
Who, prayTeLL, is Ray Gordon?

He used to operate under the nickname Flash.
He had a Ray Gun and a spaceship and saved the world from the evil emporer Ming. A real hero until he hit the skids. Started smoking, got busted in public, did time, you know the story. Sad.
If only smoking bans had been in place in '75, he might still be patroling the universe. Go figure.

[Fastracehorse]

A link for U.

Of course these guys are good and I only beat them some of the time:



http://forums.prospero.com/dr-picks/messages?msg=1343.1


fffastt

[thoroughbred]

How can we tell if a horse has improved? Here is my technique.

Let's start by thinking of a horse in its present degree of fitness. Such a horse, to some extent, can trade off early speed against
its ability to rate. If the horse increases his early speed the next time out, without changing his overall fitness, it's reasonable to expect that the horse will tire sooner.

If on the other hand, a horse decreases his early speed, then, again, if his overall fitness has not changed, it's reasonable to expect that his rating, or come-from-behind capability, (stamina), will be better.

So what does it take to see that an overall improvement has taken place? It's easiest, when we can see both an increase in early speed and stamina.

Other situations are less clear, but the principle is the same. For example, there may have been a decrease in early speed which was more than made up for by a stamina increase.

So, there is a continuum in the measure of fitness, ranging from fitness having become worse, to fitness improving, and analyzing early speed and stamina is a way to get a handle on it.

[Fastracehorse]

I assure U I am not Flash Gordon.

I have been a regular on DRF since July 10/2001 and realize that alot of people do post under different aliases.

I am not one of them.

Anywho, I am not bragging.

I would never suggest that I hit longshots everyday. I am suggesting that I hit enough so that I have a + ROI with my best bets only.

fffastt

:)