Who will win the Haskell? [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

tomcalta

07-31-2007, 10:20 AM

I am rooting for Cable Boy too, though, i don't think he has the seasoning to hang with this group. I believe his trainers (yes theres 2) should have given him another start to see how he handles a longer distance. Curlin will prolly win, but i think it will be a good race with AGS, HS and CB pressing the enitre way.

Something to note... this track is quite speed biased which is well-known to those that play MTH. I say watch out for HS taking the lead and holding on just long enough to win... in this case it will be HS then Curlin, Cable Boy, and AGS.

Am i allowed 2 predictions?

GaryG

07-31-2007, 11:48 AM

I'll have to wait for the pps and run the numbers but with HS, CB and Xchanger the pace should be pretty hot. Tomcalta: you think CB will take back early?

tomcalta

07-31-2007, 12:04 PM

I'll have to wait for the pps and run the numbers but with HS, CB and Xchanger the pace should be pretty hot. Tomcalta: you think CB will take back early?

Yea i think he will be held back early which shouldnt be hard considering Xchanger and HS will be flying. BUT I think it would be wise for him to get to the lead going into the final turn and not faulter, otherwise i think Curlin will get him.

If he can get to the lead by the final turn and open up a bit i betcha Curlin can't catch him. See Lawyer Ron in the Salvatore Mile Gottcha Gold (unraced in any graded stakes) was too far ahead but tiring and LR just couldnt catch him and LR ran like a 107 trying to reel him in.

In CB's last race he rated well and won in hand, just sitting off the pace. I think it would be wise to do the same here... but with this pace, and the speed of this track its hard to tell if Curlin will have a monster close, he'll also have to be pretty close to the pace. I think the winner will need to be leading by the turn for home.
AGS will have a late bid to grab third.

But who knows... I could be completely incorrect.

kyle2227

07-31-2007, 12:15 PM

This is just some information im posting for any one who does not know much about Cable Boy. Cable Boy, who did not start his career until he won a maiden race here on May 13, set a track record of 1:38.78 in his second start on May 26, and last time out won the June 24 Coronado's Quest Stakes in 1:39.42, the second-fastest time ever recorded here for a mile and 70 yards.

Do you guys think Curlin will go off the favorite? I'm sure he will but I think maybe ill just play some exotics. As much as I want to drop $100 on the nose of Cable Boy im still afraid of Hard Spun and Curlin taking the race. I bet Curlin will be even money favorite.

tomcalta

07-31-2007, 12:54 PM

Curlin and AGS will be the favs, imo. CB and HS will be behind them.

Horsefan

07-31-2007, 01:10 PM

I didn't think that Stormello was running in this race.

Robert Fischer

07-31-2007, 02:22 PM

Cable Boy will be sent out of the gate as usual. If someone else wants to go very fast early fine, but they aren't going to rate him.

Basically with Cable Boy they want to see if he is a superhorse with this experiment. I think it is probably an impatient move by the connections who should be pointing this one to the mile70yds race on BC day. Hopefully Cable Boy wins the Haskell and we have another top 3yo.

john del riccio

07-31-2007, 02:42 PM

I'd take 4-1 on AGS.

John

tomcalta

07-31-2007, 03:02 PM

You'd prolly get even longer odd on hard spun... maybe 9-2? 5-1?

Bruddah

07-31-2007, 03:31 PM

tomcalta

07-31-2007, 03:39 PM

well... he has only lost twice (you can throw out the belmont and derby); broke his maiden at first asking. He'll prolly win. He's already beaten most of the threats in this race.

kyle2227

08-01-2007, 01:24 AM

I'm hoping to get at least 3:1 on Cable Boy then maybe I will play him win/place/show across the board bet and then some exotics.

Stevie Belmont

08-01-2007, 03:21 PM

Curlin will go off no higher then 9/5

Stevie Belmont

08-01-2007, 03:22 PM

No higher then 5/2

Curlin will be the fav with AGS 2nd Choice.

I'd take 4-1 on AGS.

John

Stevie Belmont

08-01-2007, 03:30 PM

Yes I did see that...the entry dead heated...it was wild.

An old timer told me he saw two entries dead heat for 1st and 2nd....1 and 1A and the 2 and 2b...Hard to believe, but he said he saw it...

Who do you guys think will win the Haskall? My vote is Cable Boy all the way! Hes undefeated and I hope he stays that way. I love him. - on another note rather then start a new thread for this I'll just post it here. Any one see Monmouth this past Saturday? In race two the entries dead heated! Thats something one will probably only see once in a lifetime. Any way. Would love to hear your guys comments on the Haskall. I will be heading down to Monmouth this Sunday to watch live.

joeyspicks

08-01-2007, 04:13 PM

Curlin (surprise !)

Curlin .....fairly easy

Hard Spun

GaryG

08-01-2007, 04:21 PM

Joey, I agree and by the way nice job on the contest. :jump: :jump:

point given

08-01-2007, 06:48 PM

Cable Boy is getting a MAJOR class test in here with these heavy heads. No doubt he is very talented, BUT............... Is Stormello going to go in here ??? If he does , it will be advantageous to both Curlin and AGS. If he doesnot go, then Hard Spun could have a nice shot. I wouldnot be suprised to see Cable Boy sit off, instead of go, as his connections had planned it last time and the track was so speed favoring that he had to be close up to have any chance. I'll wait for the draw and how the track is playing that day tthough. Its too hard to theorize it otherwise, not knowing the variables. Should be one of the better Haskells though, and a free hat to boot ! :ThmbUp:

ghostyapper

08-02-2007, 12:12 PM

Sucks that drf doesn't have haskell as one of their races of the week. Instead we get the test stakes and the john c mabee handicap.

Robert Fischer

08-02-2007, 04:00 PM

If AnyGivenSaturday can ignore the pace for a little while , Curlin will have to be sharp to catch him.

Pletcher moved this horse up from the first time he tried to stretch out in good company.

classhandicapper

08-02-2007, 05:42 PM

I think Curlin and Hard Spun may be a tad better than AGS on their best, but both are coming back off long tough campaigns while AGS is a relatively fresh horse that just moved forward.

I'd love to see Hard Spun verify his Derby and Preakness form with a good ride either setting a moderate pace or sitting just off a faster one, but I think there's at least some risk they squeezed the lemon dry and we've seen his best until he gets a real rest (which means never because he'll be retired).

I would probably make Curlin a slight favorite over AGS and HS the 3rd choice.

tomcalta

08-03-2007, 09:48 AM

I had the pleasure of watching Curlin school in the paddock yesterday afternoon in between races at Monmouth. WOW! what an absolutley gorgeous horse. I didnt even bet the race that was about to go off because i was gawking, most left after taking a picture or two but i stayed and watched him the whole time. Looks extremely fit, great disposition, ears perked in every direction and at every minute sound. Just a beautiful animal. They saddled him and walked him around the ring then he went on his merry way. I took about a thousand pictures with my phone... here's a few:

http://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x185/tomcalta_photos/Curlin3.jpghttp://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x185/tomcalta_photos/Curlin4.jpghttp://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x185/tomcalta_photos/curlin1.jpg

Kelso

08-04-2007, 12:24 AM

I had the pleasure of watching Curlin school in the paddock yesterday afternoon in between races at Monmouth. WOW! what an absolutley gorgeous horse.

They schooled him again Friday afternoon. That guy has front legs like a quarterhorse! Nice animal.

Stevie Belmont

08-04-2007, 12:46 AM

Great shots for a phone. He looks like a beast. Will be up close and somewhat personal on Haskell day. Will post some snaps. Looks like Point Given a little bit.

I had the pleasure of watching Curlin school in the paddock yesterday afternoon in between races at Monmouth. WOW! what an absolutley gorgeous horse. I didnt even bet the race that was about to go off because i was gawking, most left after taking a picture or two but i stayed and watched him the whole time. Looks extremely fit, great disposition, ears perked in every direction and at every minute sound. Just a beautiful animal. They saddled him and walked him around the ring then he went on his merry way. I took about a thousand pictures with my phone... here's a few:

http://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x185/tomcalta_photos/Curlin3.jpghttp://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x185/tomcalta_photos/Curlin4.jpghttp://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x185/tomcalta_photos/curlin1.jpg

ponypro

08-05-2007, 11:49 AM

Cable Boy will not have encounterd the likes of Hard Spun who I suspect will be "sent". It sets up very nicely for Curlin and Any Given Saturday

Ron

08-05-2007, 04:49 PM

I can't believe that this race isn't on ESPN. Women's tennis again.

PaceAdvantage

08-05-2007, 05:55 PM

Yeah, the best race of the weekend and nowhere on the telly....

FOr the record, I will be betting Cable Boy, but I think AGS is the best horse here....figure that!

classhandicapper

08-05-2007, 06:02 PM

I haven't seen all the races today, but a quick look at the charts suggests the inside is the best place to be and it doesn't hurt to have some speed.

classhandicapper

08-05-2007, 06:05 PM

FOr the record, I will be betting Cable Boy, but I think AGS is the best horse here....figure that!

You can get 20.5 - 1 on Cable Boy at EhorseX right now. Beats the 8-1 at the track if you like him.

samyn on the green

08-05-2007, 06:10 PM

Hard Spun has than power move on the turn to get the lead and kick for home. At CD and PIM he came up a bit short. At this glib track that power move rarely comes up short. It is a KO punch. They will be spinning their wheels late and Hard Spun will be in front clear. Redemption for the Cowboy and Mario.

Ron

08-05-2007, 06:12 PM

Xchanger..for the price and Prado on board.

Ron

08-05-2007, 06:15 PM

Huh, I just switched to foxsportsnet(?) and it was on there.

Ron

08-05-2007, 06:22 PM

Wow, I hope Pletcher runs this guy in the Travers but they're saying AGS likes more time off.

Bruddah

08-05-2007, 06:23 PM

break the race down or at least post who won and the prices. I can't believe a race of this magnitude and interest isn't televised, especially from Saratoga. :mad:

Ron

08-05-2007, 06:25 PM

1 ANY GIVEN SATURDAY 5.60 4.00 2.10
7 HARD SPUN 5.00 2.10
6 CURLIN 2.10

keilan

08-05-2007, 06:27 PM

13th Race

Haskell Invitational H. (G1)

Off: 6:12 | 1 1/8 Miles | 3 Year Olds | Stakes | Purse:

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
1 Any Given Saturday Gomez G K 118 5.60 4.00 2.10
7 Hard Spun Pino M G 118 5.00 2.10
6 Curlin Albarado R J 122 2.10

Finish Time: 1:48.35

Scratched: Stormello

Also ran: Imawildandcrazyguy, Cable Boy, Xchanger and Reata's Shadow

Winning Trainer: Pletcher Todd A - Owner: Winstar Farm LLC & Padua Stables

$2 Exacta (1-7) Paid $24.20

$1 Trifecta (1-7-6) Paid $23.00

$1 Superfecta (1-7-6-4) Paid $78.90

$1 Pick 3 (2-8-1) 3 Correct Paid $41.80 Pick 3 Pool $66,894

$1 Pick 4 (2-2-8-1) 4 Correct Paid $82.10 Pick 4 Pool $403,059

Ron

08-05-2007, 06:27 PM

It looks like they are showing TVG coverage on foxsportsnet. These guys seem like clowns.

PaceAdvantage

08-05-2007, 06:29 PM

break the race down or at least post who won and the prices. I can't believe a race of this magnitude and interest isn't televised, especially from Saratoga. :mad:

Apparently, it was televised on (some) FoxSportsNet stations, which carried the TVG feed....but you're right, it should have been presented to a wider audience.

AGS won for fun after a dreamy trip....powerfully drew away down the stretch...Cable Boy set a moderately easy pace, Curlin had every chance turning for home, but came up very wanting....Hard Spun ran better than expected, but that's not saying much given AGS's dominance.

OTM Al

08-05-2007, 06:34 PM

I think both Curlin and Hard Spun ran very well, but they needed the race. AGS was just tighter for the race. It will be fun watching these guys continue to bang heads this year. These guys are all better than what's left of the handicap division. Travers may be too early for AGS, but the Woodward would be an interesting option.....

classhandicapper

08-05-2007, 06:43 PM

I thought it was a good race for all of them.

AGS got a perfect trip, but finished full of run and drew away nicely.

Hard Spun rated nicely off Cable Boy. Pino moved at the right time and the horse finished "OK", but was beaten by a better horse.

Curlin ran decent, but didn't look nearly as sharp as he did earlier in the year. He probably wasn't wound up 100% after the tough Triple Crown series. If he's not worn out, he could still move forward and back to the top of the class off this.

Tom

08-05-2007, 07:38 PM

Hard Spun rated nicely off Cable Boy. Pino moved at the right time and the horse finished "OK", but was beaten by a better horse.

Don't the call that "losing?" :rolleyes::D

NYPlayer

08-05-2007, 07:43 PM

...Curlin ran decent, but didn't look nearly as sharp as he did earlier in the year. He probably wasn't wound up 100% after the tough Triple Crown series. If he's not worn out, he could still move forward and back to the top of the class off this.

I think he's finished. He had nearly 8 weeks of rest from the Belmont, and couldn't even come close to his Preakness performance. I guess he won't be in the Travers, and we probably won't see him until the Classic. Hopefully he's able to at least run decently then, but I won't be betting on him.

AGS did well today, but the price on the upset was miserly. I guess at least some bettors didn't view him as an upstart vs. the "Almighty Curlin". They pounded his number with confidence.

NYPlayer

08-05-2007, 07:45 PM

Bruddah

08-05-2007, 09:26 PM

but, I am having trouble deciding if the connections are going to have him fully cranked or if it's just a nice payday for being in the money. Prepping Curlin for bigger and better things, like the Breeders Cup.

In thinking this through, Curlin has always been well meant, in his races. However, he never has come from off the lay off. I hope some of you have some answers because, I am at an impass. :confused: :D

I know it's not kosher to quote your own posts in a thread, so, I ask for all's indulgence and forgiveness. I passed on this race because I did decide it was a prep race for Curlin, with a big check.

His next race will be at more attractive odds and he will win. He was short today but it was a prep race for the Classic. He will win the Classic. (JMHO) :)

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 08:36 AM

Don't the call that "losing?" :rolleyes::D

Yes, but this time it obviously had nothing to do with his performance, ride, or running style. He ran well. The other horse ran better.

08-06-2007, 08:41 AM

Yes, but this time it obviously had nothing to do with his performance, ride, or running style. He ran well. The other horse ran better.

That has been the case all along.

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 08:41 AM

I think he's finished. He had nearly 8 weeks of rest from the Belmont, and couldn't even come close to his Preakness performance. I guess he won't be in the Travers, and we probably won't see him until the Classic. Hopefully he's able to at least run decently then, but I won't be betting on him.

These days the assumption is that 8 weeks rest is a positive. In the old days it was an excuse for being a bit short. It really depends on whether the trainer had him ready for a peak effort. When a horse has already had a tough campaign, this kind of thing is usually not the best sign. But I don't think it's written in stone he can't start moving forward again.

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 08:44 AM

That has been the case all along.

Let's not re debate this again, but there have been a variety of views on his rides, his ability to rate and still finish, and his performances. Yesterday he rated, finished fairly well, and beat Curlin again. It's at least conceivable that had he been ridden differently in other races the results would have closer or different.

08-06-2007, 08:49 AM

These days the assumption is that 8 weeks rest is a positive. In the old days it was an excuse for being a bit short. It really depends on whether the trainer had him ready for a peak effort. When a horse has already had a tough campaign, this kind of thing is usually not the best sign. But I don't think it's written in stone he can't start moving forward again.

What I am saying is yesterday pretty much proves to me at least the his supposed bad trips (rides) didn't really effect the outcome.

You are constantly straddling the fence with every horse it seems. You have to have an opinion in this game. Unless of course, you view it as a spectator sport.

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 09:01 AM

What I am saying is yesterday pretty much proves to me at least the his supposed bad trips (rides) didn't really effect the outcome.

Personally, I think it's impossible to measure some things with the kind of precision you are implying. I'm still not sure who the best 3YO is. They are similar enough in ability that trip, bias, pace, who just happens to fire the best shot that day, and who continues developing will determine the result.

I never thought HS was best 3YO in the division, but I thought his performances in the Derby and Preakness were better than the finishing positions suggested and that he could demonstrate that if he got a good ride.

Many others thought he couldn't be rated and finish well or didn't even agree with the pace issues of the first 2 jewels.

I think yesterday further demontrated that he can rate without getting rank and then finish well against Grade 1 horses. That there happened to be a new better horse in the race says nothing about him. If AGS went to the Jim Dandy instead, HS would now have a Grade 1 win over Curlin (probably easier because AGS wouldn't have come at him and put him away earlier). AGS has moved forward a great deal as 3YOs sometimes do.

ryesteve

08-06-2007, 09:18 AM

I did decide it was a prep race for Curlin
If trainers are now looking at million dollar races as a prep for something else, this is a development I'm not sure I like...

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 09:53 AM

If trainers are now looking at million dollar races as a prep for something else, this is a development I'm not sure I like...

I think there are multiple issues here.

During the Triple Crown some people were upset that AGS and Street Sense passed races they might have had a shot in. Personally, I would have liked to have seen them run also.

However, if you look at the long term record of top horses like this, you'll find that horses with long hard spring campaigns (especially those that competed in all 3 Triple Crown races) tend to fall by the wayside into the fall, get hurt, not develop etc... unless they get a good rest along the way. That doesn't mean all will, but the 3YOs that tend to develop through the fall are typically horses that passed some of the spring classics and are still fresh.

That's why even though some people were disappointed that SS and AGS didn't compete, we also said that giving them rest increased the probability they would continue developing and be able to peak later in the year for the BC etc..... Pletcher and Nafsger are no fools.

AGS has already moved forward significantly. I didn't see anything in SS's prep performance that suggested he either has or hasn't. But I think the probability remains very high given the skill of his trainer, the fact that he was freshened, and his primary objective is the Travers. We'll find out that day.

Curlin and Hard Spun are problematical. They had the toughest campaigns going into the Triple Crown and then competed in all three races. To me, neither looked like he has gone forward at all in the Haskell. IMO, the probability for them going forward significantly from here is lower than for the other two (and has been ever since they were given such tough spring campaigns).

However, there is no certainty about that either.

I'd be willing to give Curlin one more chance to step forward because his primary objective is probably the BC. But you can't assume it 100% when you are making your "odds line".

I can't see Hard Spun going forward from here. I'm a bit surprised he's still doing as well as he is because he's been active since last year without a real break. Plus, the trainer had to realize that if he was ever going to get a Grade 1, 9F at Monmouth was the best opportunity possible. He had to be wound up all the way. IMO, it was a huge error for that horse to run at 12F in the Belmont.

point given

08-06-2007, 09:55 AM

If trainers are now looking at million dollar races as a prep for something else, this is a development I'm not sure I like...

Agree. However there are 2 1 million $ races 20 days apart here with the Travers up next. But, Asmussen said it was the worst race of his career and he wants to figure out why. Maybe he is a horse who thrives on more racing , while others run their best fresh, or, maybe he ddidnot like the Monmouth surface. Curlin is a real monster of a horse to see in the flesh, a real tank. He didnot appear to me to be on his toes in the paddock, while Hard Spun was jumping out of his skin, and AGS was on his toes. To me , in midstretch, it looked like Curlin just ran out of gas, and was a short horse, unlike all his other races when he was always finishing. What was even stranger to me post race , was to see Satish Sanan, part owner of Curlin in the winners circle congratulating Todd Pletcher. I thought," what a true sporting gesture", THEN, I glanced down at my pp's and saw that he is also part owner of AGS, and he ran 1 & 3 in the Haskell. No wonder he is relocating his farm to Kentucky , owning these 2 horses. Maybe he will get back a few bucks ,on the tens of millions he has invested .

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 10:18 AM

Beyer for the Haskell is 115.

AGS has really stepped up his game. His PP's look a lot like Flower Alley's right now.

Curlin did not run that poorly.

Bruddah

08-06-2007, 11:21 AM

If trainers are now looking at million dollar races as a prep for something else, this is a development I'm not sure I like...

especially top level horses, they have long term objectives. Mainly, when can they have the horse at it's peak performance. Prep races are used to measure where the horse is, so they can train it forward. Also, a $1 million dollar Prep Race allows the trainer to meaure the trainer to make the evaluation against top opponets, who may or may not be an opponet in the race being pointed to. (BC Classic) They also picked up $100k for a non-taxing show. (JMHO) :)

Tom

08-06-2007, 02:16 PM

Our Boy Chuck

08-06-2007, 06:02 PM

It could be Curlin will never win another in this company. It was asking a lot from him to go from msw in Feb to Triple Crown. When it come to Street Sense remember his daddy was better at 4 so he could get really good in the fall.

The Hawk

08-06-2007, 07:24 PM

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the biggest reason Curlin ran a sub-par race and Any Given Saturday ran huge: The rail was tremendous.

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 08:00 PM

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the biggest reason Curlin ran a sub-par race and Any Given Saturday ran huge: The rail was tremendous.

I watched some of the early races and looked at the charts of the others and it also looked to me like the rail was the best spot. But I wasn't familiar enough will all the horses to be sure. I think I commented on that earlier in the thread just before the race was run.

ghostyapper

08-06-2007, 08:29 PM

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 08:32 PM

IMHO, I have no intention of considering HS or Curlen in any furhter Gr1 races, I did not like Curlen at all going in to the Haskel, and see him as a one race wonder. AGS beat beaten horses, if you get my drift. 115 notwithstanding, I see SS as hands down the best 3yo and probably the best of the older ones as well.

IMO, HS is done. He didn't move forward yesterday and that race most suited his style (9F on an inside speed track). From here, most of the major Grade 1 races are at 10F and/or the competition will get a lot deeper. They should either try him on Turf or look to win some 2nd string stakes. What he really needs is a rest, but that doesn't make any sense now since he will be retired at year end. They should have stopped on him after the Preakness.

It would be hard for me to take Curlin at short odds in a race against AGS or Lawyer Ron because he's going to have to step forward a lot to beat them. His long campaign makes that less likely, but I haven't written him off totally yet.

I thought SS's Jim Dandy performance was only OK. He was pretty extended to beat a real 2nd stringer there and the figure was nothing special. However, we know that the race was only a prep and that Nafzger is great at getting peaks on the right day. We'll find out where he is now in the Travers if anyone that can run shows up.

DanG

08-06-2007, 08:35 PM

For what its worth… (As much or less than any other opinion.) :D

I was at Saratoga for the Jim Dandy and at Monmouth for the Haskell.

Observation…

I’ve always been in the Any Given Saturday camp, but the physical difference between the animal I saw at the Tampa Derby and Sunday was remarkable. Yet another reminder of just how these teenagers can change so rapidly in a few months. This was a beast Sunday and barring injury he will have to be dealt with by anyone going for the classic.

Jim Dandy;

Street Sense was very keyed up in the paddock / hot on the track and fractious / too close to the pace / short in conditioning and still did what good horses do.

Nafzger is playing this animal like a Stradivarius. Perfectly timed preps, works and peaking on big occasions. Street Sense it set up to explode in the Travers. Of course it takes a good / healthy horse to carry out the game plan, but this is text book masterful training at work here and beautiful to watch. :ThmbUp:

Regardless of the remainder of Curlin's and Hard Spun's 3yo campaign I fail to see how the Belmont contributed to their development. I feel AGS and Street Sense will be very glad by BC day they avoided that gut wrenching event. Even the Filly may be paying a price for a long stretch duel at 12f in June.

I personally wouldn’t put these animals in the class of the elite we have seen, but these are excellent horses who I feel are a little under appreciated so far IMHO.

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 08:35 PM

who honestly thinks street sense would have won the haskell had he entered? Not me.

Not me either, but it's more clear that SS used the Jim Dandy as a prep. So we know less about what he is capable of now.

With Curlin, we know he ran well and was against the grain a little, but it's going to take better form than that to beat AGS if they face off again and AGS holds that form.

john del riccio

08-06-2007, 08:41 PM

Personally, I think it's impossible to measure some things with the kind of precision you are implying. I'm still not sure who the best 3YO is. They are similar enough in ability that trip, bias, pace, who just happens to fire the best shot that day, and who continues developing will determine the result.

I never thought HS was best 3YO in the division, but I thought his performances in the Derby and Preakness were better than the finishing positions suggested and that he could demonstrate that if he got a good ride.

Many others thought he couldn't be rated and finish well or didn't even agree with the pace issues of the first 2 jewels.

I think yesterday further demontrated that he can rate without getting rank and then finish well against Grade 1 horses. That there happened to be a new better horse in the race says nothing about him. If AGS went to the Jim Dandy instead, HS would now have a Grade 1 win over Curlin (probably easier because AGS wouldn't have come at him and put him away earlier). AGS has moved forward a great deal as 3YOs sometimes do.

I
He is the best 3yo in the country is you base it off the DWYER.

John

I ould take him head to head against any 3yo, he is NOW head of the class, a little late for the Triple Crown rces, but he is legit.

John

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 08:46 PM

Regardless of the remainder of Curlin's and Hard Spun's 3yo campaign I fail to see how the Belmont contributed to their development. I feel AGS and Street Sense will be very glad by BC day they avoided that gut wrenching event. Even the Filly may be paying a price for a long stretch duel at 12f in June.

Yep.

The history of Triple Crown and top older horses with long hard campaigns suggests that by fall, many of them are done unless they are given a real good break somwhere along the line.

That's one advantage of 30 years of experience. I've seen an awful lot of top horses handled in a variety of ways. There are no real rules, but the tendencies are clear and the best horseman know how to get to the BC in one piece barring an accident.

classhandicapper

08-06-2007, 08:52 PM

I could take him head to head against any 3yo, he is NOW head of the class, a little late for the Triple Crown rces, but he is legit.

John

Why don't we wait until after we see what SS has in the tank in the Travers.

AGS stepped forward a great deal and moved past the spring form of the Triple Crown horses, but developmental progress is normal for many well handled 3YOs. If you look at SS's spring peak and "assume" he will develop by an average amount, it's not so clear to me who the best 3YO is.

What's clear is that HS and Curlin have not moved forward (in Curlin's case...maybe he deserves a "yet").

ghostyapper

08-06-2007, 08:56 PM

Regardless of the remainder of Curlin's and Hard Spun's 3yo campaign I fail to see how the Belmont contributed to their development. I feel AGS and Street Sense will be very glad by BC day they avoided that gut wrenching event. Even the Filly may be paying a price for a long stretch duel at 12f in June.

I'll never complain about the top horses showing up at all the important dances. Isn't that what this sport is supposed to be about?

Again its still too early to make judgements. You can say he was using it as a prep but the fact remains both hard spun and curlin ran a better race against far superior competition that street sense did in his comeback race.

Since curlin is pointing for the breeders cup classic, its not unfair to assume they were using that race as a prep as well.

Indulto

08-06-2007, 09:00 PM

... During the Triple Crown some people were upset that AGS and Street Sense passed races they might have had a shot in. Personally, I would have liked to have seen them run also.

... Curlin and Hard Spun are problematical. They had the toughest campaigns going into the Triple Crown and then competed in all three races. To me, neither looked like he has gone forward at all in the Haskell. IMO, the probability for them going forward significantly from here is lower than for the other two (and has been ever since they were given such tough spring campaigns).

... I'd be willing to give Curlin one more chance to step forward because his primary objective is probably the BC.

... I can't see Hard Spun going forward from here. I'm a bit surprised he's still doing as well as he is because he's been active since last year without a real break. Plus, the trainer had to realize that if he was ever going to get a Grade 1, 9F at Monmouth was the best opportunity possible. He had to be wound up all the way. IMO, it was a huge error for that horse to run at 12F in the Belmont.CH,
I guess I qualified for a re-bait. ;)

Do you "straddle" fences, passhandicapper, or is it that you're too re-tired to get over them in time to bet? :D

Sincerely, I never tire of the thoroughness with which you analyze the relative merits of high class thoroughbred horseflesh, but I have awaken on occasion at my PC to find one of your posts displayed on my monitor. :lol:

Alright, we're not here to have fun. I wonder what Street Sense's connections' reactions were to Curlin's pu$$ywhipping during a 23-4 final quarter at 12 f. (Curlin may have been waiting in the MTH stretch for a close female encounter of the second date kind after getting a whiff of the Matchmaker participants preceding his plunger pulling performance.)

The Haskell result tells me that SS had a better chance to win the Belmont than anybody thought, but not because Curlin didn't show the heart of a champion in both the Preakness and the Belmont. I didn't expect Curlin to drop back to 9f successfully after his back-to-back, all-out efforts in the triple crown. Hard Spun didn't run the entire 12 f, so he had enough in his tank THIS TIME to stay in front of Curlin at 9 f, but no further.

Any Given Saturday, like Lawyer Ron, pulled away in the stretch as if his trainer keeps time in a bottle. His rematch with Street Sense should set a Saratoga attendance record if not another track record.

I’m in the camp of those willing to bet Curlin in the Travers at odds belying his ability because his trainer is no stranger to magic, either.

I don't have the stamina to go back and re-read your posts, but I seem to remember your analysis of Hard Spun's chances in the Belmont as somewhat more positive than a "mistake."

DanG

08-06-2007, 09:09 PM

I'll never complain about the top horses showing up at all the important dances. Isn't that what this sport is supposed to be about?

That sounds good, but there is a reason that was the first Derby Winner since 1995 to run at Saratoga in their 3yo year. A good trainer should do what’s best by each individual.

Nafzger peaked SS for the Derby, maintained him into the Preakness and would have had to get near the bottom of him for the Belmont. The man was not prepared to do that and I respect him for it.

DJofSD

08-06-2007, 09:17 PM

I wish I could have gotten the odds derived from this poll insteand of 9/5.

OTM Al

08-06-2007, 09:35 PM

I think both Hard Spun and Curlin had some cobwebs to shake off in that race and think they both did a fine job. HS is probably just a tick below the other big 3, but I see no shame in that. He has beaten Curlin in two of their 4 head to heads, so you can't tell me Curlin is tons better. I would figure HS next stop may be the PA Derby. Big purse and some connections of the connections to the area. He should pick up a pretty easy paycheck there. SS of course has the Travers dead in his sights. I'm betting Curlin does not face him after hearing the post race comments. Wouldn't be surprised to see him wait for the Super Derby. As I said before, the perfect spot for AGS would actually be the Woodward since Pletcher does not want to run him back so fast, but since Todd already has about half the field for that race, I doubt he'd do it. Even though he's not quite as good as these, it was cool to see that Nobiz stepped up today too and took a G2 on the grass. Nice win. Guess there's a reason no one said this was a week class this year. May be one of the best we'll see for some time. I plan to enjoy the rest of the show while it lasts.

Tom

08-06-2007, 09:51 PM

I think HS would make a nice miler. 7 furlongs - 1m16 at Belmont.....

Robert Fischer

08-06-2007, 10:48 PM

If AnyGivenSaturday can ignore the pace for a little while , Curlin will have to be sharp to catch him.

Pletcher moved this horse up from the first time he tried to stretch out in good company..

Bruddah

08-07-2007, 05:41 AM

You had it exactly correct. Congratulations! :)

classhandicapper

08-07-2007, 08:44 AM

CH,
I guess I qualified for a re-bait. ;)

Do you "straddle" fences, passhandicapper, or is it that you're too re-tired to get over them in time to bet? :D

I don't have the stamina to go back and re-read your posts, but I seem to remember your analysis of Hard Spun's chances in the Belmont as somewhat more positive than a "mistake."

From a sporting perspective I wanted to see SS and/or AGS in the Belmont, but I totally understood both of them passing and probably would have done the same thing. I'm not a big fan of all the passing that trainers do these days, but the Triple Crown series is pretty tough if you also want to make the Travers and BC too (which SS's connections wanted) .

I don't think I totally hated HS in the Belmont, but I didn't consider playing him. I was in John Del Riccio's camp. I thought he needed a rest and should point for the Haskell.

Just for the record, I actually hit the Haskell. On the exchange I got 2.5 - 1 on AGS and 7-1 on HS. I played both of them to win. My own original odds line had Curlin a very slight favorite over AGS and HS the 3rd choce. I decided to let a few moths out after reviewing the races and seeing that the track might be playing to inside speed (pointed out prior to the race in this thread). AGS had the rail and HS figured to either get the lead or stalk. So I more or less made the race a pickem between Curlin and AGS and HS better than 7-1. I do think the track was a factor in the margin of victory. Curlin is closer to AGS than it looks even though he didn't fire his best shot.

classhandicapper

08-07-2007, 09:09 AM

I think HS would make a nice miler. 7 furlongs - 1m16 at Belmont.....

Kings's Bishop - Grade 1 Sprint

http://www.drf.com/news/article/87378.html

Indulto

08-07-2007, 01:37 PM

... Just for the record, I actually hit the Haskell. On the exchange I got 2.5 - 1 on AGS and 7-1 on HS. I played both of them to win. My own original odds line had Curlin a very slight favorite over AGS and HS the 3rd choce. I decided to let a few moths out after reviewing the races and seeing that the track might be playing to inside speed (pointed out prior to the race in this thread). AGS had the rail and HS figured to either get the lead or stalk. So I more or less made the race a pickem between Curlin and AGS and HS better than 7-1. I do think the track was a factor in the margin of victory. Curlin is closer to AGS than it looks even though he didn't fire his best shot.A lot of people seem to be going on the record here, these days. Is this Congress or a racing message board? It was probably Friedman's picking AGS that really lowered his price. Good to hear those moths didn't escape for nothing. :ThmbUp:

classhandicapper

08-07-2007, 06:23 PM

A lot of people seem to be going on the record here, these days. Is this Congress or a racing message board? It was probably Friedman's picking AGS that really lowered his price. Good to hear those moths didn't escape for nothing. :ThmbUp:

I don't like redboarding because some people get pissed, but I rarely know who or how much I'm going to bet until very near post time. I like to watch the races earlier in the card, shop around for prices, then the decision is comes from the gut at the last minute. In this case, I won so little, made some comments reasonably consistent with my play prior to the race etc.. that I didn't think anyone would get upset by me saying I won a few dollars after the fact.

I read Len's analysis. He's one of the few people I go out of my way to read (Davidowitz is the other). Len had a much stronger opinion on the race than I did. He's an excellent handicapper. We view a lot of things differently. Sometimes I think if I could add some of his pattern reading insights to my own methods, I would be pretty dangerous. ;)

NYPlayer

08-07-2007, 06:25 PM

I'm really surprised how many of you are so down on curlin while so high on street sense. Lets not forget the quality of the field for the haskell was far superior to that street sense faced in the jim dandy.

Curlin could just be a horse that needs to race in order to be in form. And while I don't think it was his best race sunday, its not like he ran poorly. He still got a higher speed figure than street sense did in the jim dandy. who honestly thinks street sense would have won the haskell had he entered? Not me.

I'll wait for The Sheets, but I would guess their numbers are about the same for both horses. Street Sense ran as fast as he needed to in order to win the Jim Dandy. The Travers is the traditionally coveted mid-summer prize among horsemen, and that's the main objective for Nafzger. If what you say about Curlin needing the race is true, then it should be an easy decision on Assmussen's part to enter for the Travers. If memory serves, that was Assmussen's original plan, but curiously the Travers was dropped from Curlin's itinerary.

NYPlayer

08-07-2007, 06:34 PM

A lot of people seem to be going on the record here, these days. Is this Congress or a racing message board? It was probably Friedman's picking AGS that really lowered his price.... :ThmbUp:

Friedman picks plenty of horses and is wrong plenty of times. I can't recall the last time one of his top choices was bet down like that. In my opinion a lot of overenthusiastic sharpshooters knew to toss Curlin out completely, but I say 8-5 was either only fair or slightly underlaid.

ghostyapper

08-07-2007, 08:24 PM

I'll wait for The Sheets, but I would guess their numbers are about the same for both horses. Street Sense ran as fast as he needed to in order to win the Jim Dandy. The Travers is the traditionally coveted mid-summer prize among horsemen, and that's the main objective for Nafzger. If what you say about Curlin needing the race is true, then it should be an easy decision on Assmussen's part to enter for the Travers. If memory serves, that was Assmussen's original plan, but curiously the Travers was dropped from Curlin's itinerary.

Curlin did get a higher figure but I don't want to get wrapped up in figures. My point is that street sense did not run any better than curlin did. If they switched spots, curlin would have beaten cp west while street sense would have been left in AGS dust, IMO

Curlins main goal has always been the BC. If they choose not to run in the travers, I won't hold it against him. It's not like street sense never missed a battle (hint belmont)

Indulto

08-07-2007, 08:32 PM

I don't like redboarding because some people get pissed, but I rarely know who or how much I'm going to bet until very near post time. I like to watch the races earlier in the card, shop around for prices, then the decision is comes from the gut at the last minute. In this case, I won so little, made some comments reasonably consistent with my play prior to the race etc.. that I didn't think anyone would get upset by me saying I won a few dollars after the fact.

I read Len's analysis. He's one of the few people I go out of my way to read (Davidowitz is the other). Len had a much stronger opinion on the race than I did. He's an excellent handicapper. We view a lot of things differently. Sometimes I think if I could add some of his pattern reading insights to my own methods, I would be pretty dangerous. ;)I agree 100%. Friedman and Davidowitz are the most helpful stakes race analysis writers to me among those I've read. IMO Freidman's interpretation of the SHEETS is more valuable than the product by itself; a tool in the hands of a master craftsman. It's just that picking my own winner is at the very core of my being. I wouldn't hesitate, though, to use Friedman's contenders in verticals.

I wish redboarding didn't generate such an uproar. While it can be -- and is -- overdone or abused, I really enjoy hearing winners explain why they made their bet(s) and under what conditions they made their decision.

While we both concentrate on stakes, we are polar opposites in terms of decision timing. My best results occur when I find a nightstallion, i.e., a horse I liked the night before and still liked when reviewing my analysis the next morning. ;)

Because I also prefer horizontal exotics, I'm not as penalized by earlybird betting. I'm not a good judge of value except for those rare times when a legitimate contender goes off at astronomical odds, so for me the main advantage in attending live racing is getting to inspect the horses physically, which IMO, isn't as significant for stakes races.

NYPlayer

08-08-2007, 06:28 PM

Curlin did get a higher figure but I don't want to get wrapped up in figures. My point is that street sense did not run any better than curlin did. If they switched spots, curlin would have beaten cp west while street sense would have been left in AGS dust, IMO

Curlins main goal has always been the BC. If they choose not to run in the travers, I won't hold it against him. It's not like street sense never missed a battle (hint belmont)

You're probably right with respct to AGS, I don't think any horse would have beaten him in the Haskell. With respect to Street Sense and Curlin, Street Sense wasn't trying to beat AGS while Curlin was. Even Assmussen admitted it was worst race of the horse's career.

As for the BC being his main objective, It's looking more like a pipe dream. He'll face not only SS and AGS, but likely Lawyer Ron as well, who just ran a minus number on the sheets. Aside from his narrow win in the Preakness, Curlin has done little to convice that he could be considered a top tier contender for the BC. He looks more like second stringer at this point.

I'd say it's time for Curlin fans to face reality, but I guess for every Secretariat there are always some believers in a Sham.

ghostyapper

08-08-2007, 06:40 PM

As for the BC being his main objective, It's looking more like a pipe dream. He'll face not only SS and AGS, but likely Lawyer Ron as well, who just ran a minus number on the sheets. Aside from his narrow win in the Preakness, Curlin has done little to convice that he could be considered a top tier contender for the BC. He looks more like second stringer at this point.

I'd say it's time for Curlin fans to face reality, but I guess for every Secretariat there are always some believers in a Sham.

I disagree completely. He won the preakness narrowly but lets remember he was passed by street sense on the inside and still came back to win. Once he changed leads, he pretty much blew street sense away.

I think street sense is a very talented horse but if you're going to get on curlin, what exactly has street sense done to convince he's a first tier horse other than his rail skimming ride in the derby? He beat AGS in the spring in a photo, lost the Bluegrass to dominican, and was not all that impressive in his dandy win.

I think curlin will be a major contender for the classic. I don't see AGS keeping this form till the spring and lawyer ron is a 9 furlong specialist. And as far as street sense, I really don't see much between these 2.

Indulto

08-09-2007, 02:57 PM

I disagree completely. He won the preakness narrowly but lets remember he was passed by street sense on the inside and still came back to win. Once he changed leads, he pretty much blew street sense away.

I think street sense is a very talented horse but if you're going to get on curlin, what exactly has street sense done to convince he's a first tier horse other than his rail skimming ride in the derby? He beat AGS in the spring in a photo, lost the Bluegrass to dominican, and was not all that impressive in his dandy win.

I think curlin will be a major contender for the classic. I don't see AGS keeping this form till the spring and lawyer ron is a 9 furlong specialist. And as far as street sense, I really don't see much between these 2.I think very little separates Curlin, SS, and AGS on their best days, but LR sure convinced me he could have gone another furlong in the Whitney. Competition may come from other quarters, but I'd play LR over those three 3YO in the 2007 Classic.

Unlike SS skipping the Belmont, I have no issues with the connections of Curlin and AGS skipping the Travers. But who's to say AGS will be the horse in October that he is in August. Passing the $1 million Travers in his current form seems foolish to me since by beating SS at 12 f after beating Curlin in successive G1s should be enough to make him 3YO champion.

Tom

08-09-2007, 03:03 PM

Street Sense wins the big ones.
The BC Juvy and the Derby.
And he wins a lot in between.
Culren has much to prove.

Indulto

08-09-2007, 03:48 PM

Street Sense wins the big ones.
The BC Juvy and the Derby.
And he wins a lot in between.
Culren has much to prove.The Curlin/SS rivalry is what racing has needed, but unfortunately can't seem to capitalize on. My gut feeling is that Curlin is the better of the two on his best day, with his PROVEN stamina giving him the edge.

NYPlayer

08-09-2007, 06:08 PM

The Curlin/SS rivalry is what racing has needed, but unfortunately can't seem to capitalize on. My gut feeling is that Curlin is the better of the two on his best day, with his PROVEN stamina giving him the edge.

It looks as though the rivalry question will have to wait for the Classic - reminiscent of the '73 Belmont.

Robert Fischer

08-09-2007, 06:20 PM

this is the only and last time i will say this, but I doubt a 3yo will win the Classic in 2007. Even as nice a crop as we have this year.

For SS to win he will need to have a nice trip, see no one run brilliantly in front of him and make his move mid-stretch, not at the top as in the Tampa and Preakness or he will be run down. Nafzger probably realizes this. At least Street Sense appeared physically bigger in the Jim Dandy.

Curlin will need to start rolling "early" on the backstretch prior to the turn and make an almost "premature" move galloping to the lead approaching the turn. - He cant run with the pack and hope to outfinish a top class group of horses as in the Belmont or Haskell. Albarado/Asmussen don't seem to be trying this approach.

Any Given Saturday will need to develop into a stronger overall horse. There is a chance that he will, I am just not sure if the natural animal is good enough.