SAR 7/30 R 7---How does this horse lose? --for EDUCATIONAL purposes only

[the_fat_man]

Chestoria is coming back for B Levine. Last out she won the Miss Grillo Stakes (Bel 10/22/06) over a yielding turf course, beating the likes of Christmas Kid and Sharp Susan, the latter having equipment problems in the race and running off early. Some of you might know SS as the recipient of a number of EXTREME choke down trips until finally getting blinkers off for Lake George, where she was WIDEST of all. (Ironic) :bang:


Anyway, I've attached the chart for the Miss Grillo.

It need be mentioned that the Miss Grillo was faster than the Pilgrim Stakes, also run that day, won by Pickapocket, with Strike a Deal (2nd), and Giant Chieftain (3rd --nice return by this one yesterday :lol: and Fernando Po (also ran).

Here are the splits for the Miss Grillo:

23.05 46.28 1:12.5 1:38.19
1:50.82
and for the Pilgrim

25.62 50.74 1:16.12 1:40.97
1:52.62

The Miss Grillo was Chestoria's 2nd time on the turf, she had previously broken her maiden on a good turf course, and 3rd start overall.

[toetoe]

fats,

The only other one I saw was 1, and with that one scratched, MMMMMAYBE 1A. As you say, Chestoria appears to be a real filly. :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

Well she got beat, but I think that was mostly a matter of getting beaten to the move in a slow paced race. I'd take her in a rematch. ;)

[point given]

Well she got beat, but I think that was mostly a matter of getting beaten to the move in a slow paced race. I'd take her in a rematch. ;)

johnny outrode eibar badly in this race, w a slow pace , jr 2nd in the 2 path, eibar on the rail saving, jr takes off at the top of the stretch and eibar gets caught and slightly in tight, while jr sprints to the wire. JR is riding really well.

[the_fat_man]

I wasn't about to touch that race. Don't need her at 4:5 and I certainly don't need the winner at 9:2. The betable turf race for me today was the 5th and I blew that one, BIGTIME. :bang:

There's always a concern that horses don't continue to develop from their 2 to 3 year old years.

I understand that she might've been given a race, especially since she opened at 2:1 (thus, it's bet at your own risk) BUT

she sat a perfect trip and didn't really fire in the lane. Coa wasn't beating her up but she's supposed to lay over this field.

The point, Class, is that there's not supposed to be a rematch.

P.S.

I think that after today's 5th, I finally WOKE UP to the differences between BEL and SAR turf and the type of moves to look for. :bang: My horses are running but they can't win on this course.

[classhandicapper]

fat-man,

If she's a lot better, she supposed to win anyway, but there are physical limitations to how fast a horse can close. The winner came home extremely fast for horses of this caliber because of those crawling fractions. I don't think it's too much of a knock on her to lose off the layoff given that pace.

[the_fat_man]

She had essentially the same trip as the winner: better in terms of position from the rail and worse in terms of position given the pace. How much of a jump did the winner really get on her? She's not good enough to make it up against Jesse's Justice? How much of a pace adavantage did the winner have?

If this horse was going to be a (relatively) significant turf player this year, given that she's already missed a good portion of the season, she doesn't come back in a state bred race, needing a race, and a good trip to win.

You're the ultimate excuse guy for these horses.

[bellsbendboy]

Chestoria was a bad favorite today. She was coming off an injury, had been on the shelf for nine months, was dropping back in trip and taking a quantum leap in class.

With that said I am sure her connections are very pleased with her race today. Second to the legit Pletcher filly was a good effort indeed. BBB

[classhandicapper]

You're the ultimate excuse guy for these horses.

:lol:

I think if you turn for home with a length lead while in full stride and your major opponent is just getting going it's a pretty big advantage when the pace is 24.4 49.1 113.4 and 136.3.

The last 1/4 was 22.4 and these were NW2S fillies.

How fast do you expect her to come home?

I used to think the correct way to measure this kind of thing was to simply upgrade the horses that made the best "relative" close into the very slow pace. I still think that's useful, but it's not totally accurate. Sometimes inferior horse have superior kicks for 2F/3F when the pace is extremely slow (see the Bluegrass for an example).

I think the only thing you can conclude about a race like this is that she ran well enough to think she may still be a very good prospect. I would evaluate her off her prior form and not any numeric or comparative measurement of this one.

[classhandicapper]

Chestoria was a bad favorite today. She was coming off an injury, had been on the shelf for nine months, was dropping back in trip and taking a quantum leap in class.

She was running against vastly inferior horses today than she beat last time out. Take a look at the PPs of the horses in her last race. They were younger, but with any physical development at all they blow these horses out. Obviously there was a question mark about the layoff. No one in their right mind would have taken 4-5 on her off that layoff.

[the_fat_man]

:lol:


The last 1/4 was 22.4 and these were NW2S fillies.

How fast do you expect her to come home?



22.3

just fast enough to get the job done. :ThmbUp:


I posted this thread cause, to see what the reaction would be (who I could rope in, so to speak), as in the past, these were the type of races I'd get involved in.

Anyone who bet this race is nuts, IMO.

[the_fat_man]

Here's the chart for the race.

Of note is that Chestoria has gained to within 1/2 length at the STR call and LOSES 1/2 length over the final 1/8th.

[toetoe]

fats,

There'll be no ropin'-in on this site, okay? Fer that tomfoolery, go to About.com's "Ropin' & Wranglin'" board, see? Lotsa talk about pretty ponies, too. :jump:

[OTM Al]

You gotta be real careful with these statebred races these days, especially now that they have these optional claimers at the NW2X level. I think your analysis is better suited to a higher class level where form holds a bit better, especially in the turf races

[bellsbendboy]

Class: In my mind, this is a quantum jump in class and while I cannot corroborate that opinion, with study or statistics, I am certain, I am correct.

I queried a friend who is well versed in all aspects of the sport and asked him. He called the jump "huge".

There may not be much interest here, but on its face, any discussion, of any handicapping issue, must exclude, any other factor. A pure test of class, with this filly, would lead most handicappers to conclude she was moving way up. Nevertheless, a fine effort.

Fats: The Pletcher filly is a nice one with six exacta's in seven races. I went three deep in a pick three using 6,7,and 11. I was plenty sold on GRASSHOPPER as he is, and has always been, a stakeswinner in allowance clothing. I scored a modest pick three, but think the Dixie Union colt will choose the Pennsylvania Derby and smoke them there as well. BBB

[classhandicapper]

Class: In my mind, this is a quantum jump in class and while I cannot corroborate that opinion, with study or statistics, I am certain, I am correct.

I queried a friend who is well versed in all aspects of the sport and asked him. He called the jump "huge".



I'm not sure how anyone could conclude that.

Since my name is "CLASS"handicapper", let me elaborate on my thinking. ;)

Yesterday's race was a NW2 Alw for 3+ "Statebred" fillies. Most of the horses in that race were heavily raced 4YO non-developing losers (meaning pretty weak).

Chestoria's last race was an Open Stake for 84K that contained lightly raced decent "prospects". If you look at the actual field of horses, some had already won in OPEN MSW company. Others had already won their first OPEN ALW race (making the race like a NW2 Open ALW) . If you look at how the horses ran coming out of that race, several continued to perform well in open graded stakes.

Right off the bat, a NW1 Open is better than a NW2S. There is no doubt about that. And it's very easy to make the case that the Miss Grillo horses were better than that because several had already won a NW1 and continued to perform well as they moved up the ladder.

The only offset is that the Miss Grillo was an Open Stake for "2YOs". THose kinds of stakes are always very weak relative to stakes for 3YOs or 3+ etc... because the horses are usually still limited winners and not fully developed.

However, with any developmental progress at all, those horses would lay over a NW2 for Statebreds. Even if they didn't develop, it was still obviously a solid Open ALW race - which is typically a much better race than a limited winner Statebred.

[john del riccio]

I'm not sure how anyone could conclude that.

Since my name is "CLASS"handicapper", let me elaborate on my thinking. ;)

Yesterday's race was a NW2 Alw for 3+ "Statebred" fillies. Most of the horses in that race were heavily raced 4YO non-developing losers (meaning pretty weak).

Chestoria's last race was an Open Stake for 84K that contained lightly raced decent "prospects". If you look at the actual field of horses, some had already won in OPEN MSW company. Others had already won their first OPEN ALW race (making the race like a NW2 Open ALW) . If you look at how the horses ran coming out of that race, several continued to perform well in open graded stakes.

Right off the bat, a NW1 Open is better than a NW2S. There is no doubt about that. And it's very easy to make the case that the Miss Grillo horses were better than that because several had already won a NW1 and continued to perform well as they moved up the ladder.

The only offset is that the Miss Grillo was an Open Stake for "2YOs". THose kinds of stakes are always very weak relative to stakes for 3YOs or 3+ etc... because the horses are usually still limited winners and not fully developed.

However, with any developmental progress at all, those horses would lay over a NW2 for Statebreds. Even if they didn't develop, it was still obviously a solid Open ALW race - which is typically a much better race than a limited winner Statebred.

Chestoria's last race was on a yielding turf course that she obviously relished. Yesterdays race was on firm ground and the pace was rediculously slow. I think both of those factors played a part in the result.

John

[Tom]

Class, the fact that whe was returning from a layoff in an Allowance race signalled to me that it was a conditioning race. A good play in this type of race would be the stakes winner in an exacta as place bet, which paid $31 here.
Good strategy, but I didn't use the winner!:(

[classhandicapper]

Class, the fact that whe was returning from a layoff in an Allowance race signalled to me that it was a conditioning race. A good play in this type of race would be the stakes winner in an exacta as place bet, which paid $31 here. Good strategy, but I didn't use the winner!:(

After 30 years of handicapping I still have a rough time with those "conditioning" preps. Many of them come back short, but enough of them win for me to question how much value there is betting against them.

For me, it's a lot like the negative class drops. I don't want to bet on them, but I'm not really anxious to bet against them either.

Maybe in another 10 years I'll figure it out. :lol:

[Tom]

As always, the odds tell the tale.
At the short price, no way in heck was that horse worthy of a bet.
Catch-22, would you still like at 6-1?

For me, it was play it underneath or as the race.
Third alternative, lose the race. D'oh!

[classhandicapper]

I more or less thought the odds looked about appropriate - meaning there was no value on either horse. If there was, I'm not smart enough to make that fine a decision. It has to leap off the pages for me to open my wallet. ;)

[the_fat_man]

Chestoria's last race was on a yielding turf course that she obviously relished. Yesterdays race was on firm ground and the pace was rediculously slow. I think both of those factors played a part in the result.

John

It was noted that Chestoria's previous efforts were on off track.

As for the pace, it would be an issue if the winner was able to control it and Chestoria was at a disadvantage as a result of this. But they essentially ran the same race, with JJ getting the 'worst' of it, outside, without cover on the backstretch (2path) while Chestoria was on the rail.
Moreover, JJ was given the more aggressive ride, also. The problem for me, once again, is that when Chestoria got clear in the stretch, she backed up late. She couldn't match strides with the winner. This was not about pace, IMO, but rather fitness or (lack of expected) class.

[the_fat_man]

I more or less thought the odds looked about appropriate - meaning there was no value on either horse. If there was, I'm not smart enough to make that fine a decision. It has to leap off the pages for me to open my wallet. ;)

BINGO.

Too many variables to consider (that go outside just evaluating the ability of the horse) and not enough value.

A definite PASS.

[Robert Fischer]

The pace was moderately slow , it was nothing like the Belmont or Bluegrass, but it was a relaxed pace. In such a race the jockey of the top horse should be making headway on the backstretch! - His horse's natural cruising speed is generally enough to do this without expending energy. You want the horse to be AT LEAST at even terms when the late-kick portion of the race starts out of a slow pace. If the slow pace brings a stalker to the lead on natural ability fine! Jockeys very rarely react to a slow pace by making headway, and it isn't realistic to expect them to do it. Most often if they feel they have the best horse they will ride patiently and confidently, but not aggressive.


I honestly couldn't tell from the replay who was the better horse. Chestoria could well be better.

Jessies Justice was pumped up and ran very big. Pletcher has that horse better in recent form than whe she started.
Chestoria had a ton of horse and finished strong.

[bellsbendboy]

Class I guess we will have to agree, to disagree. I understand that this case is not as clear cut as many; but this filly is moving way up in class.

Primitively, she is, by the race conditions being asked to do something she has not done (nw2life other than). Notice also, 3yo's 118, older 123, clearly older horses have an advantage, especially at a distance on turf. Chestoria has never faced three year olds, let alone older.

I realize this race came up very light for the conditions, but using that weakness as a criteria for judging class is clinically inaccurate, and, as in this case, will lead to false assumptions.

Tom : Thanks for the data, I owe you. Chestoria was well meant here from several points of view. First, the big purse with about $40K to the winner. Secondly, the work pattern is superb with three nice five furlong turf moves downstate preceded by a six pack of works over the new synthetic surface in Ocala. Whats' next? The Yaddo the 18th, the same class the 22nd, or an overnight stake Sept 2nd all statebred heats. It is always dicey to bet horses returning from the sidelines but this fillies breeding strongly suggests she would need one and the farther they go the better. BBB

[classhandicapper]

bellsendboy,

Do you understand the difference between Statebred classifications and Open Classificiations?

NY Statebred races are MUCH weaker than their open company equivalents for maidens, allowance, and stakes races. It's sometimes as much as 15 points on the Beyer Scale.

Here are some speed figure PARS for 3+ colts based on Saratoga Racing only from 2003-2006.

MSWS - 74
MSW Open - 90

NW1S - 82
NW1 Open - 96

NW2S - 89
NW2 Open - 100

Almost always, a horse that has won an open NW1 has beaten MUCH better horses than the ones it would face in a NW2S because of the Statebred restriction.

[Tom]

I think one thing we can all agee on is.....we will never all agree on anything! :lol:

Good thread!

[john del riccio]

The pace was moderately slow , it was nothing like the Belmont or Bluegrass, but it was a relaxed pace.

Robert,

I don't agree with this point. the 5th & th races were both run at 1 mile on the inner turf. The 7th was for nw2x f&m statebreds, the 5th was for maiden statebreds that were esentially all 3yo's. Simply based on the class of each race, you would expect race 7 to be several lengths better. Based on the figure histories of the runners in each race you would also expect the 7th race to be several lengths better. However, race 5 was 8/5 seconds faster at the 1/2 mile pole and 10 lengths faster after 3/4's of a mile. I do not beleive that this falls
under moderately slow for race 7, I beleive it was exceptionally slow.

As an aside, race 5 had a final time 2/5 better than race 7. Would I be opening up a huge can of worms if i stated that my variant figure for race 7 was 5 lengths better than race 5 ??

John

[Robert Fischer]

Robert,

I don't agree with this point. the 5th & th races were both run at 1 mile on the inner turf. The 7th was for nw2x f&m statebreds, the 5th was for maiden statebreds that were esentially all 3yo's. Simply based on the class of each race, you would expect race 7 to be several lengths better. Based on the figure histories of the runners in each race you would also expect the 7th race to be several lengths better. However, race 5 was 8/5 seconds faster at the 1/2 mile pole and 10 lengths faster after 3/4's of a mile. I do not beleive that this falls
under moderately slow for race 7, I beleive it was exceptionally slow.

As an aside, race 5 had a final time 2/5 better than race 7. Would I be opening up a huge can of worms if i stated that my variant figure for race 7 was 5 lengths better than race 5 ??

John


Exceptionally slow is fine. The fact that it was at a distance of 8furlongs should probably be factored in when I compare the race to a 12furlong and a 9 furlong AWT race.

The main point I was trying to make is that in slow paced races, the best horse can be at a disadvantage if he isn't allowed to make headway on the backstretch and then open up on the kick for home. Jockeys rarely do this.

What is the argument behind your variant fig?

[Robert Fischer]

also 3 good TURF races SAR Wed. 8/1 --

PPS:
MSW63k http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/kiaranmclaughlin_82431.pdf

Stakes80k http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_82443.pdf

Alw68n1x http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_82444.pdf

[john del riccio]

Exceptionally slow is fine. The fact that it was at a distance of 8furlongs should probably be factored in when I compare the race to a 12furlong and a 9 furlong AWT race.

The main point I was trying to make is that in slow paced races, the best horse can be at a disadvantage if he isn't allowed to make headway on the backstretch and then open up on the kick for home. Jockeys rarely do this.

What is the argument behind your variant fig?

I agree that when the pace becomes dawling, inferiror horses are able to finish closer to superiror animals (TUEF vs SS in the BG).

My comment re: variants for these two races is that if the winner of the MSW race were ever to race against the winner of the alw race, the MSW winner would be viewed as 2 length sbetter based on raw time and I am saying th allowance runner winner is really 5 lengths better despite the final time.

John

[Robert Fischer]

I agree that when the pace becomes dawling, inferiror horses are able to finish closer to superiror animals (TUEF vs SS in the BG).

My comment re: variants for these two races is that if the winner of the MSW race were ever to race against the winner of the alw race, the MSW winner would be viewed as 2 length sbetter based on raw time and I am saying th allowance runner winner is really 5 lengths better despite the final time.

John

I agree with that variant from watching the races and looking at how fast they finished.

[bellsbendboy]

Class: I am familiar with statebred races and will stipulate that they are often run much slower than their open cousins.

What they have to do with this filly, and her rise in class I am not sure, as you are comparing apples and oranges. Ask yourself why do younger horses get weight from their elders?

Since this is an educational thread "assume" Chestoria did not win her last and was beaten a nose. Accordingly, assume she returned in an entry level statebred allowance race. Would she be jumping in class? BBB

[classhandicapper]

Class: I am familiar with statebred races and will stipulate that they are often run much slower than their open cousins.

What they have to do with this filly, and her rise in class I am not sure, as you are comparing apples and oranges. Ask yourself why do younger horses get weight from their elders?

Since this is an educational thread "assume" Chestoria did not win her last and was beaten a nose. Accordingly, assume she returned in an entry level statebred allowance race. Would she be jumping in class? BBB

IMHO, in limited winner Alw races, younger horses often actually have an advantage over their older rivals because they are still typically lightly raced and developing while their older rivals are often already demonstrated losers that have maxed out (otherwise they still wouldn't be limited winners at age 4 or 5). The weight concession is about physical development, but IMO, doesn't really correlate to quality very well. Once you move into the stakes ranks, then older horses are usually superior to their younger rivals. (claimers also)

The reason the statebred issue is important here is that THIS was a statebred allowance race and Chestoria ran in an OPEN STAKE last year that was demonstrably "at least" equal to an Open NW1 or NW2 allowance. Either is of higher class than yesterday's race. That's what I was trying to demonstrate with the figures. Speed PARS and quality/class are closely correlated. IMO, she would be dropping in class no matter what level of statebred Alw race she was entered in yesterday and regardless of whether she won or lost by a nose .

We don't need to agree on this though. It's just something I have spent a lot of time on. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

you guys both know your ponys

tomorrow (wed 8/1 SAR) we have 3 Turf races 7.9.10

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/kiaranmclaughlin_82431.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/kiaranmclaughlin_82431.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_82444.pdf


what are going after the MSW , the Stakes or the Allowance ?

Fats John Class BBB ?

heck there is a pick 4 7-9
r8 = http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/winstar_farm_llc_82474.pdf


what are we going to tackle here ?

[Good4Now]

events are fascinating. If a horse has any Oomph from the gate the jockeys will hold their path like their runnin' on rails to keep all horses outside STUCK outside going into the first turn.

In Race 7 I'm lining up with the 11 IF he draws in.
Good luck everyone!

[toetoe]

classy,

You, James Quinn and I agree on this thread of the "class" hairball. The hard part was finding a worthy winner in case of Chestoria's not firing. I stabbed at the 1A and missed. I was NOT impressed with 6's form. She managed to stay ahead of Chestoria the whole way and inherit the lead. Eh, tear up my tix and move on.

Moron tomorrow's after a perusal of the dope. If I'm able, I'll provide some "sure things" which you all can chuck. :D Hey, I think I'll say that for luck every time now.