Anybody Taking a Shot Against Street Sense?

[Onion Monster]

I might, if the odds are right.

Here's my line for the Jim Dandy:

#1 Sightseeing 12-1 (Could get a piece if the early speed retreats)
#2 Flashstorm 20-1 (Possible wire threat)
#3 Street Sense 4-5
#4 Cowtown Cat 10-1 (Any Pletcher horse at 20-1 is worth noting)
#5 Tiz Wonderful 6-1 (Undefeated wild card)
#6 C P West 10-1 (Regressed after a solid Preakness, could bounce back)

Street Sense could be compromised by his running style and/or trainer intent: are they treating this as a prep for the Travers? Could this race be a repeat of the Blue Grass? At 2-5, such questions scare me away.

[OTM Al]

The goal for Street Sense is not this race, but the Travers. He is not fully cranked for this, though he should be still the best. Tiz Wonderful is the threat though one would think he needs a race in him to get back to his form. Gutty move to bring him back here though. Remember Tiz Wonderful was the #1 2yo before his injury and it was Street Sense that took the mantle from him. Personally I wouldn't bet this race.

[Robert Fischer]

My Win probability estimates: Streetsense Sightseeing and Tizwonderful:
Sightseeing has a real chance to win on ability. Street Sense has a greater chance. If street sense's win probability is 55% +-10% , then Sightseeing is second with 18% +-12%. Tiz Wonderful may be rated 15% +-25%. because of the huge range of unknown information.

summary - Sightseeing and Tizwonderful
Watching the Dwyer 25-30 seconds into the race Sightseeing is full of run and without the benefit of hindsight (we all watched the rest of the race and now know that Anygivensaturday was at a brilliant level for the Dwyer), Sightseeing appeared to be headed for a strong winning bid. Prado wanted to split horses and Gomez clozed the gap on Sightseeing's face and that was the end of that. Sightseeing continued on well in spite of being checked and boxed.
Tiz Wonderful is a well thought of animal and if he has come back stronger or even as strong, he is the other with a chance to win the race outright.

others:
The other horses have very small probabilities of winning, unless they display dramatic improvement. Pletcher has a hot barn, Cowtown cat has the "unknown" factor going for him in which some of Pletcher's runners have in fact displayed a dramatic improvement recently.

[kenwoodallpromos]

What scares me is if I assume any undefeated is a wildcard!!LOL!!

[classhandicapper]

I'm going to watch as a fan.

I don't expect him to be 100% because the Travers is the goal, but I don't see anyone here with enough ability to take a stand against him.

Tiz Wonderful is obviously a horse with potential, but this is a long layoff off an injury. I'd be a little surprised if he came back sharp enough to beat a reasonable fit SS.

CP West has that pretty good effort in the Preakness, but it's surrounded by mediocrity.

The other horses are cleary a notch below and will either have to improve sharply or catch a very short SS to win.

[bellsbendboy]

I have been on the 'Sense bandwagon for some time and cannot fathom him NOT winning the Travers and being right there in the Classic.

With that said I see C P West as a standout today and will single him in my pick 4. BBB

[Horsefan]

Yes a friend of mine is going with Sightseeing, Street Sense and Tiz Wonderful.

[JustRalph]

I am just wondering how much Street Sense can improve in the 2nd half of the year? That should be answered soon enough.........

[toetoe]

I am more forgiving of CPW. The Preakness was a breakout effort, and the Belmont can be tossed. He sorta/kinda probably has improved enough to threaten the two big layoff guys.

[Premier Turf Club]

FWIW on Street Sense according to my private clocker buddy at SAR.

Pro: His last workout was fantastic, he looks as good or better than he did going into KY Derby where the same clocker told me he couldn't lose.

Con: He has big dish plate feet, the kind of foot that does great at CD but not as well at SAR. Generally speaking small footed horses handle the quick SAR surface better.

Conclusion: Tizwonderful, training very well at CD and with great SAR confirmation in an upset.

These guys are usually pretty good, but on a single race of course anything can happen and Street Sense is a very good horse.

[PaceAdvantage]

THe way the main track has been playing opening week, it seems custom made for Street Sense. I caught SS's work on TVG, and he did look awesome physically....there's a reason he's 2/5....lol

[Premier Turf Club]

Yeah, PA he looks terrific. The only concern that was expressed is that they think he's better on slightly deeper surfaces.

I took a small position with Tiz Wonderful in PK4's.

[classhandicapper]

Unless SS runs a subpar effort, if Tiz Wonderful comes back sharp enough to win here, I would consider it a negative.

If I owned him, the last thing I would want at this point is a giant effort off a layoff that was the result of an injury.

In numbers terms, I'd like to see him come back with a slight new top indicating that he has developed further from his 2YO form, but not taxed himself at all. I think that would be a much healthier way of getting him to develop further.

That kind of performance would probably get a him a respectable 2nd here unless you are correct about SS and his hoof. ;)

[Tee]

Check out that show pool people!!

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm gonna take a shot here with Sightseeing at 7-1....he's got the top number in a category that has taken many dirt route races over the past day or so....

[JimG]

I'm playing daily doubles here with Street Sense:

3/1,7,8,9,11

Jim

[Tom]

The Champ is in the house.

For all the one horse wonders we have read about the last couple of years, just look at this guy's lifetime PPs - enjoy the ride, because this is the real deal. :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

Is anyone else a little surprised at the show payoffs given the massive show money on Street Sense? Also, why doesn't the individual totals add up to the show pool total?

I assume this has something to do with "Net Pool Pricing?"

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/SS_show.gif

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/SS_pay.gif

[classhandicapper]

The Champ is in the house.

For all the one horse wonders we have read about the last couple of years, just look at this guy's lifetime PPs - enjoy the ride, because this is the real deal. :jump:

Perfect prep for the Travers.

[cj]

Yes, it is because of net pool pricing. There is good information about it on the Red Mile site, though I don't have the link handy.

[classhandicapper]

Yes, that has to do with net pool pricing.

[cj]

I take it back, found it:

http://www.theredmile.com/index.cfm?a=188

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks for the link CJ....this must be a boon to place and show bettors!

$2.10 Payouts and Minus Pools
Fans will notice that show pools with a heavy favorite that you would expect to return $2.10 for all three runners, now may pay significantly higher on the two non-favorite horses. This is because that even though the payout on the favorite is reduced to a number even farther below the minimum $2.10 payout, it still must return $2.10. But the other horses are not participating in the minus pool as they were under the Standard Pricing model.

[BillW]

Thanks for the link CJ....this must be a boon to place and show bettors!

It makes playing against bridgejumpers a little more attractive too. A $3.50 bet in this case. :cool:

[classhandicapper]

Thanks for the link CJ....this must be a boon to place and show bettors!

No.

It's actually a disaster.

Very short priced horses tend to get underbet in the place and show pools.

Long shots tend to get overbet.

So there used to be some value opportunities in the place and show pools on short priced horses.

The new system tends to lower the price on very short priced horses by about 10 cents. That doesn't seem like a lot, but when when you reduce a payoff from 2.60 to 2.50 and then the breakage takes it to 2.40, that's a disaster. It's less of a problem in NY where you'll just get the 2.50.

It's true that the payoffs on longshots to place and show are now a bit higher, but they are generally just moving from disasterous value propositions relative to win odds, to nothing to get interested in.

I had a very profitable place betting operation in place for about 18 months that I was starting to expand around the country (with rebates of course). I more or less abandoned it as Net Pool Pricing was implemented (and some rebates were reduced, and the NY take went up by 1%). Whatever edge I still have is not worth the trouble of dealing with the volatility of making larger bets than I typically make to win and in exotics etc... I don't need the headaches.

[NYPlayer]

The Champ is in the house.

For all the one horse wonders we have read about the last couple of years, just look at this guy's lifetime PPs - enjoy the ride, because this is the real deal. :jump:

He's an awesome horse. Credit Nafzger for a masterful job. Thanks to this horse and trainer, I'm looking forward to the Travers and the fall season with high anticipation.

[Robert Fischer]

He's an awesome horse. Credit Nafzger for a masterful job. Thanks to this horse and trainer, I'm looking forward to the Travers and the fall season with high anticipation.


great point:ThmbUp:

so many times we see a talented horse and his style is thrown out the window... Nafzger took a horse that probably could run (and win) decent near the front and he developed a classic style. Borel was the ultimate jockey choice. Fearless , capable of running with the top jockeys in terms of timing and grit. As an extra important bonus he rides the horse in workouts!
really nice work from Nafzger.

[startngate]

I'm glad SS won, and certainly it wasn't a big surprise given who he was in against. I watched intently, but made no bets in the race.

As a general rule of thumb I always pass betting on the first comeback race of a "big" horse. It's too easy for the horse to be short, get into trouble, or for the trainer to be looking too far ahead. Yet it's hard to bet against a horse you know is easily the class of the field.

Either way, the "big" horse is almost always overbet, and it's very difficult to find value in the race without having another horse you love being completely overlooked in the pools. There are always exceptions, but normally these are "throw-out" races for me.

[46zilzal]

One often forgets how the better trainers are smart enough not to ruin the best ones. Another reason why the keep getting the best ones.

[SMOO]

It makes playing against bridgejumpers a little more attractive too. A $3.50 bet in this case. :cool:

Yes, it helps when the bridgejumper wins, but how will it affect the jumbo payoffs when the chalk runs out? Anyone observe any differences? :confused: