SAR R3---VALUE ---IF

[the_fat_man]

Been watching the shows and just about everyone thinks this is a 3 horse race ---with most making it between Scorpius and Grand Champion (who figures to get a great setup).

Most are of the opinion that Deadly Dealer is suspect---especially given his performance in the W Stephens.

So, if you think that DD had an 'excuse' in the W Stephens and his race in GP wasn't the exception, you should get nice value on him.

[classhandicapper]

My guess is that DD has/had a physical problem. He didn't work for a month after his disappointing effort. The freshening may help him, but IMO it's a gamble for sure.

[the_fat_man]

Have you watched the headon of that race? Clearly, the horse got roughed up pretty badly.

[Robert Fischer]

Scorpius is a well intended animal. They have some big goals for this horse. Draw a line through the All Weather Track race.

Even as hot as Pletcher has been with getting horses to improve from their plateaus recently, Dealer should be out-classed.

[classhandicapper]

I just looked at it. Personally, I didn't see enough of an excuse to toss the race unless it caused a physical problem. I'm sticking with my original guess. I think the horse came out of the race with a minor problem and was feshened up. Your guess is as good as mine as to how he will run today. I don't see him as a mortal lock even if you throw out his last race. So I would probably make him 2nd or 3rd choice in the race based on the fitness question mark. If you are more confident you can toss the last and that he's going to deliver peak effort (or close), there will probably be good value there.

[the_fat_man]

Wow.

Scorpius opens 6:1 (not even 3rd choice), the other 2 at 5:2

And DD looks like a TIRED horse in the paddock.

[classhandicapper]

Scorpius willl probably go off lower than 6-1 and I think Grand Champion will be the favorite coming out of a pretty tough field.

[the_fat_man]

I agree.

But DD looks absolutely LISTLESS in the paddock.

[Robert Fischer]

I guess you put scorpius top and bottom in the exacta over everyone. And maybe box Scorpius Grand Champion and Lord snowden(6/1!) in an exacta as well.
The crowd is over-betting Pletcher.

[Robert Fischer]

Brilliant son for Mclaughlin is also paying well in exactas.

[classhandicapper]

Based on that effort, I believe DD has some problems.

[Robert Fischer]

ooops i just saw the results. i knew on the late look Brilliant son belonged in that box as well.

I'm guessing scorpius quit in a hot pace? Two nice overlays because of pletcher fill out the exacta for 133.50


scorpius was dead on the board but i attribute that to the public betting pletcher more than a sign of big money knowing he wasn't prime. If Dealer wasn't in the race and Scorpius was relatively as cold - then that is a warning sign to me... Really Hard to tell for sure in this situation, i think one underlay scenario is enough justification for an (percieved) overlay. Racing is a tough game even if you think you are following along with every scenario.

[the_fat_man]

Based on that effort, I believe DD has some problems.


I've seen aged GELDINGS that haven't been given their testosterone shot in months display more energy than DD did in the paddock. The handlers almost had to pick his head up to avoid it hitting the ground as they were walking him around.

And 2:1 to boot.

Too bad. I go into the race with opinions AGAINST

Grand Champion and Scorpius.

[classhandicapper]

I passed the race. I didn't see anything that made me want to let the moths out. ;)