WARN(ing)---SAR 7-25 R5

[the_fat_man]

I have some interest in the 4th and 5th races at SAR tomorrow, and

I finally got around to doing the chart (attached) and watching the replay of WARN's last race at CD.

Good thing that the headon wasn't available, cause I'd be writing for an hour:

Broke sharpy and IN, slamming the 2 into the 1 at the gate

quickly drops to last in the run to the 1st turn

last on the BS

2nd move, HUGE, (after Terror on the Track) on the turn (slowest split)

widest in the lane and repeatedly switching leads in just about the greenest performance you'd ever see, while gaining significantly on the leader

Interested in knowing how fast this race was.

Needless to say, I now have to rethink this race. :bang:

[Bill Olmsted]

100,000

[ponypro]

That looks like the toughest race of the day. After seeing that Ill have to add Warn to my pick 4. Im almost at an "all" for that race

[cj]

Figure wise the race was nothing special. Warn will have to improve and run straight to contend. From the 11 hole on the inner turf, I'd want a lot more than 6 to 1 to back him.

[Bill Olmsted]

Figs on turf is like mayo on corned beef.

[cj]

Only if you don't know how to make them properly.

[speedking]

Figs on turf is like mayo on corned beef.

Bill, I have a ton of respect for you and all your work and would never think of wasting a good corned beef sandwich by adding mayo :rolleyes:, but I disagree with that statement 100%. I only use CJ's figs and the first races I look at every day are the turf events and I live and die with those numbers. Thankfully, I'm living quite well still. :jump:

Have a great meet :jump:

speedking

[Bill Olmsted]

I stand corrected. I suppose I am operating under some preconceived notion that grass figs are not effective so I haven't given the idea serious consideration.

It is good to know that grass figs work. My hat is off to you and CJ. Maybe you CAN teach an old dog new tricks!

[speedking]

I stand corrected. I suppose I am operating under some preconceived notion that grass figs are not effective so I haven't given the idea serious consideration.

It is good to know that grass figs work. My hat is off to you and CJ. Maybe you CAN teach an old dog new tricks!

None of us are that young anymore, Bill ;) and CJ has made it easy for his clients :jump:

Hope to see you at the Spa :ThmbUp:

speedking

[john del riccio]

I have some interest in the 4th and 5th races at SAR tomorrow, and

I finally got around to doing the chart (attached) and watching the replay of WARN's last race at CD.

Good thing that the headon wasn't available, cause I'd be writing for an hour:

Broke sharpy and IN, slamming the 2 into the 1 at the gate

quickly drops to last in the run to the 1st turn

last on the BS

2nd move, HUGE, (after Terror on the Track) on the turn (slowest split)

widest in the lane and repeatedly switching leads in just about the greenest performance you'd ever see, while gaining significantly on the leader

Interested in knowing how fast this race was.

Needless to say, I now have to rethink this race. :bang:

Fats,

Warn's race was alright. It was his first grass start and it was respectable.
The fastest horse of thse who have run on grass appears to be Virginia Minstrel with Teror on the Track behind him. I'm attching the figs for the openning day at SAR here. Good Luck.

John

[Tee]

Runaway Banjo - full brother to Major Idea who wasn't all that bad on the lawn. 30/1 on the morning line doesn't seem right for a colt with some potential moving to the grass.

Borobudur - This one certainly has some pedigree power along with some hefty connections. Steady worktab just might have this guy ready to run. Price will most likely not be something to make one run to the windows.

[nobeyerspls]

Warn should get a decent pace to run at and come flying late. The outside post doesn't bother me at this distance.
I like All Verses chances. Second lifetime start is a productive angle and the connections are solid. The delayed start to his career is probably a conformational issue.
You mentioned the 4th race. Sister Desiree looks vulnerable here as one of the favorites. I'm using Sarah's Smiler, Forest Jazzy, and Egypt Lane.

[the_fat_man]

Fats,

Warn's race was alright. It was his first grass start and it was respectable.
The fastest horse of thse who have run on grass appears to be Virginia Minstrel with Teror on the Track behind him. I'm attching the figs for the openning day at SAR here. Good Luck.

John

If I were betting Warn, I wouldn't be worried about Terror on the Track. If you watch their race, even though TotT made the first move, Warn buried him in the stretch.

As for VM, his race against Ambassador (who I think is OKAY) was very impressive. The race against War Monger, lesser so. It bothers me that if Holiday Trip (who's not much) had room late, VM doesn't get 2nd in that race.

I think I have a reasonable idea as to the ability of these horses EXCEPT for Frankel's horse.

And I really don't like Pletcher's horse at all. All Verses figures to improve but I didn't get the sense off his 1st race that he would be much.

If WARN runs back to the style of his 1st race, he'll be far back and need to circle horses on the inner. Not exactly the best setup. Then again, he did break on top in his last race and was impeded a bit in the run to the 1st turn so this horse might not need to run from far back.

I'll take him if he's around 10:1. He should, at least, be 4th choice.

[the_fat_man]

Fats,


The fastest horse of thse who have run on grass appears to be Virginia Minstrel with Teror on the Track behind him.

John

John

This gets the at the heart of some of my figure concerns.

TotT is 5 lengths behind WARN, in a race where the latter loses at least 5 more lengths (and I'm being VERY CONSERVATIVE) by running extremely greenly in the stretch. So, he's 10 lengths better than TotT. TotT gets blinkers next out and runs a figure that's superior to WARN's figure in their previous race. What does that mean?:bang:

[Robert Fischer]

warn has a shot. He was full of run in the last one, and his Arlington race offers extra confidence that he may have been righted after the layoff and may in fact be better on the grass. I worry a little when I see the erratic running, because you have to decide if that is green behavior or pain. Borel will give it a run.

Rocket Legs showed he has some early speed two back. In his last Luzzi sat behind the wall of horses. This guy has been very one-paced. Terror on Track looks pretty cheap, Dominguez will likely establish strong early position with Rocket Legs who should benefit from the added distance here. I don't think he has to steal the race on the inner but he may have the option. Pletcher's turf horses have also been improving lately, slight improvement from this one wouldn't surprise.

Borobudur is somewhat interesting , and he is already underlayed in the morning line. He has a chance to get on track here under Frankel, but also may be a dud. He didn't beat a whole lot in France, and Fastmambo seemed to have his number, but Fastmambo didn't amount to anything this year. The French imports haven't been doing all that great. Nergal another horse from this class, is a good looking animal, but has only done halfway decent, isn't anything special yet. You have to respect the pedigree and Frankel's skill and expect a heavy "dose" of nutrition for this one being in Frankel's barn for a while to get him right. Not the pick but you include.


you kind of have to guess the quality level of this race. If warn isn't sound or special, and if Frankel has a dud, then you have Dominguez trying to catch these guys sleeping and if the race is only of moderate quality then you have to think Coa will have Virginia Minstrel in the trifecta and you also respect Desormeaux on Task Force.

This will be a good one to watch. Not the worst race to key around a horse and include some middle range odds for a trifecta.

[Tom]

It means you can't look at figures in a vacuum - you have to analyze how the fig was earned, and keep in mind horses improve. The idea is to find a figure that represents what the horse will do today, barring racing luck.
Your trip analysis is perfect for that - the farther back you go to get a fig, the better the price should be.

Now I'm just not going to do all that work everyday, but when you bring stuff like this up, I find it useful in my pace methods.

[john del riccio]

John

This gets the at the heart of some of my figure concerns.

TotT is 5 lengths behind WARN, in a race where the latter loses at least 5 more lengths (and I'm being VERY CONSERVATIVE) by running extremely greenly in the stretch. So, he's 10 lengths better than TotT. TotT gets blinkers next out and runs a figure that's superior to WARN's figure in their previous race. What does that mean?:bang:

Fats,

My interpretaton of what this scneario means is that TotT improved in his next race and if you are correct about Warn being better on th eday they met, if he improves at all today in his second grass start, he should outperform TotT today IIF TotT doesn't continue his improvement as well. The hardest thing to do is projecting further improvement when handicapping a race as well as when making figures. Its both an art & a science in each case.

Good Luck.

John

[Robert Fischer]

sometimes they throw blinkers on a horse, and a jockey like albarado can control a slow pace until the good horses make their run.

[garyoz]

A risk is Borel tries to make his usual rail move and Warn gets shut-off. Do really like Warn's race two back on the Poly at AP with the 11.61 final furlong going 6 after a 124 day layoff. But, still should be a Calvin Borel premium in the price.

Also need to watch the tote action on the first time Frankel French colt--Borobodar--or just toss 'em. Several mystery horses in the mix.

[JustMissed]

Borobudur could spell trouble for my pick, Virginia Minstrel. Although no figs are available for this french horse, he has 2 seconds on turf with race ratings of 112 & 115 respectively.

VM's 2 seconds out of three on grass were race ratings of 112 & 113. With Coa on board with this ratable horse who posted a 92 LP in his last start-he gets the nod over the foreignor who hasn't run in 322 days, even with the 1st Lasix.

Terror on Track likely to spit the bit coming home and I agree that Bo-rail probably get pushed back in rail traffic.

Montauk showed some final kick in last but probably can't go the distance.

Wish I were there.

JM :)

[the_fat_man]

Also need to watch the tote action on the first time Frankel French colt--Borobodar--or just toss 'em. Several mystery horses in the mix.

Borobudur finished ahead of Nergal (by a neck) 4/6/06 at LongChamp.

The latter broke his maiden next out (5/01/06 at St-Cloud) and then won a turf race at KEE (4/13/07) and ran 4th behind Sunriver BEL 6/7/07

Borobudur didn't win in 2 subsequent starts in France.

[Robert Fischer]

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=620640

borubudor's racing post record ^

his best rpr is only 88. A 100 is about what you want to see for this race. However, you have to allow for Frankel to improve the animal off the layoff.

He beat Nergal in a race where Nergal may have been carrying more weight? (and Nergal recieved a higher rpr rating of of 6 pounds more at 91), then Nergal got older and better and Borubodur didn't get better. Fastmambo improved slightly and had Borubodur's "number" and Fastmambo turned out to be a dud. You can check other opponent's subsequent races with a little clicking and none of them seemed to do very much on a few clicks by me. This is purely a Pedigree/Trainer angle, which makes it hard to key around at low odds. Include

[Robert Fischer]

right Nergal was carrying 130lbs in that race. All others were 123.

here are the comments translated from french. Some of the words are mistranslated but they expected Borubodur to improve from that race. Are they saing Borubodur gained at the wire but was in tight?
Nergal may have been carried "wide"?...

"BOROBUDUR: Gone up a little too in confidence, was made overflow by gaining on the wire, not without finding itself with narrow in the last meters. Should clearly progress on this race.
NERGAL: With carried out, and defended oneself well until the end."

[bellsbendboy]

The most likely winner appears to be VIGINIA MINSTREL. Pleasant Tap colt is the best bred horse in the race, has the best pattern coming in and has run big in all three grass starts for terrific connections.

Breeding: A half brother to the very talented Bandini, this homebred's second dam produced solid sire Stormy Atlantic and the fourth dam is the legendary Mocassin.

Debuting as a 2yo in Baltimore the apprentice tried to go around them all with the rail at 70 feet! Promptly fired, J. Rose was put up and the horse was way wide again in a seven horse heat beaten a neck while well clear of third. Next he was 2-5 and came unglued. Transfered to Tagg after working well in the spring in Aiken we singled him in the Memorial day pick 4 but as horses off the shelf often do, he broke running and never got a breather finishing second at some fifteen to one. After a few solid am moves he ran a big second after rating kindly to a horse he had already beaten. Tagg who is fabulous off a steady schedule worked this colt every six days culminating with nice movehere Sunday.

Breeder/Owner Backer is an advertising executive who coined the famous slogan; "Tastes great ...less filling" as well as "Coke its the real thing" and has had a host of nice horses.

A normal advance in this his third off a layoff and clear sailing makes this colt the one to beat at a bettable number. BBB

[Robert Fischer]

Borobudur opens around 2-1 Underlay? or does Frankel have this one ready to fire?

[the_fat_man]

Paddock and warm up update:

thought VM looked best in the paddock - on the muscle- ready to race

and WARN is down to 9:2 with the late scratch.

not exactly longshot odds

[Robert Fischer]

Here is my big bet of the day. I am going to use Rocket Legs. Ideally Dominguez steals the race, with frankel's Frenchy empty, and one of my bombs or Virginia Minstrel third



using the 3 rocketlegs in the trifectas

11,1,7,8 w/3 w/1,2,5,7,8,11,12 = 24

3 w/ 1,7,8,11 w/ 1,2,5,7,8,11,12 = 24

17811,3 w/125781112,3 w/8,3 = 48


and the exactabox 1,3,7,8,11 = 20

$116

[the_fat_man]

COLD!!! baby :cool:

[classhandicapper]

COLD!!! baby :cool:

You are becoming a legend. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

Good Call

[Robert Fischer]

tri was very very short for beating the Pedigree/Trainer horse with a 5-1 shot.

LOL! I made two dollars and twenty five cents....

if rocket beats minstrel i have it twice..

[Bill Olmsted]

COLD!!! baby :cool:

Congrats Fats.

U. B. D. Man.

The sound you hear is me suckin' your kneecaps.

[Rookies]

Good call, Fat One !

I had it based on your writeup... smashed against the rail and still fighting at 1 1/16 was good enough for me ! :cool:

[Robert Fischer]

two dollars and twenty five cents..


just realized the 1 Task Force was scratched so it works out to +46.25.

[john del riccio]

COLD!!! baby :cool:

Fats,

may I light your cigar Sir.....no only that, you said WARN was 5 lenths better than TT which is what he beat him by..... Congrats.

John

[the_fat_man]

Fats,

may I light your cigar Sir.....no only that, you said WARN was 5 lenths better than TT which is what he beat him by..... Congrats.

John

Couldn't of hit the exacta without your figures.

Good job, John

[JustMissed]

Thanks FM.

I was at the office when you first posted and I went to Todd Pletcher's web site and printed the free Bris pp's for race 3 & 5.

I took a late lunch and went to Tampa Bay Downs just in time to bet #2 Lord Snowdon to win. As he was the only stalker(P2) with a chance to hit the board with a bunch of E's & EP's, I went heavy at 6-1. Thank you.

I played Arlington Park, race 2, off the tote while waiting for race 5 and hit the exacta that paid $46for my box, enough to cover the beer and lunch.

After the scratches in the 5th, the bartender and I decided to box the 3-8-11. He went for the 3 to win and I went for Bo-rail as I had decided that he might have enough room to get by and at 6-1, he was a better buy than Virginia Minstrel who was my original favorite.

After about 1 1/2 hours at the track I now have a pocket full of cash and a smile on my face. Please, please keep posting. At this rate early retirement is looking better and better.

JM :cool:

[Robert Fischer]

Fats you are at a whole new level. :ThmbUp:

we need to do this again sometime soon. I plan on cashing.

[KingChas]

TFM is on a (jelly) roll! :jump:

Seriously TFM, Warn was the best......
But after you watch the headons let me know how much Borail gotta way with roughing up Rocket Legs.
Maybe it was the angle I viewed but sure looked like he pinballed him outta few paths to get off the (Bo)rail in the drive? :D

[john del riccio]

Fats,

Warn earned a variant fig (73) that was a four length improvment over his turf debut), I'd suspect that a few out of this race would come back & run well again.

JOhn