Yo, Pace Guys :: Bel 7-22 R 7

[the_fat_man]

I'm looking at this race and I'm real lazy after that full day seminar, so I don't want to do any work and watch a bunch of races.

However, just looking over the field, does

Silver Timber figure to get a NICE SETUP or what?

(And, per Litfin, Rice is 38% 2nd off the layoff. Impressive)

If not, someone is going to get this one running late.

What does the pace analysis say?

[the_fat_man]

See, this is the kind of shit that pisses me off. I just watched the replay.

Quietly Mine, the narrow winner of the previous race for the 3 and the 6, came OUT at the break, slamming into Count on Pal. It wasn't horrendous but it was enough to cost COP the race (he lost it all by a HEAD), as he was off just a bit slow and had to move to the lead. (This while the outside horse in the race, Graynumberfive, came in badly and took out the 2 horses to his inside.)

That horse is supposed to come down.

As the fairness Gods would have it, he got his ASS KICKED next time out by English Colony.

COP is one game mofo.

[bellsbendboy]

Using your replay "system" to handicap, reminds me of an aunt of mine. She watches the "Hercules Poirot" mysteries on the cable, misses half the show and still, is convinced she knows who the killer is. bbb

[Tom]

:lol::lol::lol:

[Tom]

Pace wise, I think he is too slow early to get the lead and hold on. Daddy Joe is much faster early in turf sprints. His last race was very slow early.

[the_fat_man]

Pace wise, I think he is too slow early to get the lead and hold on. Daddy Joe is much faster early in turf sprints. His last race was very slow early.

Who?

[Tom]

Oh, Silver Timber. Sorry about that.

[the_fat_man]

Oh, Silver Timber. Sorry about that.

You misunderstood. I don't see him as speed, either.

Don't you see this race falling apart?

[Tom]

I think so.....I need to really look closer at the race, but it seems top heavy on the front end. This might one to tear apart tomorrow...I had it marked as one to look closer at when I saw the early pace set up.

[rcknhrse]

i would bet the 2 horse el prado rob
2-9-8-4
but i would also box
5-6-9
and
3-4-9
but then again the 5-7-8-9 have the highest trainer %'s

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, let's see.....


Based on yesterday's results, I would say my main contenders are 6-Silver Timber, 4-Daddy Joe, 8-Redefined and 5-Ever a Friend.

4,5,6 all have similar energy numbers, while the 8 is a complete opposite since he tends to come from further back.

Will this race fall apart and set it up for a horse like Redefined or Silver Timber? I'm not all that sure that Silver Timber won't be caught up in the early pace. Fat Man seems to think Silver Timber will get a great trip behind some comeback speed. I wouldn't bet on it, especially given that ST will be chalky.

Silver Timber is quite the strong contender, but at 3/1 on the ML this one figures to go off quite a bit lower, given the Jockey/Trainer combo and the fact that Linda Rice does quite well second off the layoff.

I am going to bet on the fact that Silver Timber might get caught up with the speed on the front end, like he's done in three of his last four. While he hasn't exactly all-out dueled anyone, he hasn't been coming from out of it either.

So, that leaves me with 4,5 and 8 to choose from. I say if a hot pace develops up front, then Redefined is the one who will get the dream trip. I also rate Ever a Friend higher than Daddy Joe, the latter's jock is jumping ship to ride for an owner he is 4 for 5 with.

So, what's my final verdict after such a long winded reply? I'm not sure. Redefined is probably also going to be pounded at the windows given Tony Dutrow's gaudy 30% win rate 1st after a claim, and Johnny V. taking over the riding.

So that leaves me with the 4 and 5. Both these horses have shown speed lately sprinting on the turf. The 5 is getting his sixth different jockey in as many starts while the 4 was soundly beaten by the 8 in May and is facing better overall today.

I think my money will be going on Ever a Friend, the #5, when all is said and done.

[nobeyerspls]

I'm not a pace handicapper but I think that a closer will win this. I'll go with the longshot Miracle Man. Ran well fresh before.
Might take a miracle for him to win but at 20-1 I can be wrong nineteen times and still break even.

[john del riccio]

fats,


on a non-soft turf course, the horses with the best pace figs are (in pp order)

count on pal (77 pace)
mathmetician (77 pace)
redefined (77 pace)

however, mathmetician earned his pace fig vs. MUCH better competition than the other two therefore i beleive he has shown the most pace talent. redefined showed a totally new style last out coming from off the pace. count on pal continues to improve but he didnt run well after a slighly longer layoff previously. mathmetician comes out of a mile race over a yeilding turf course where he ran well and shortens up today. silver timber ran very well last out so he can't be ignored. i like the 3rd start off the layoff, cut back, and versatile style of mathmetician so he
is who i will be looking at.

the figs for this race & the entire belmont card for sunday are attached.

good luck.

john

[pressman]

5 EVER A FRIEND
8 REDEFINED
6 SILVER TIMBER
7 MATHEMATICIAN

just an opinion

[Bobzilla]

I agree with nobeyerspls, regardless if MIRACLE MAN is ready today or not off the 10 month layoff, at 15-1 he would be the value by my estimation. Hennig is only 3/35 off the +180 layoff which makes me pause, but 5/20 when the horse runs for him first time. Miracle Man's competition last year was better than most in today's 7th; he has higher earnings per start; he gets Cornelio and will have the option to save ground just behind the pace. I just watched his 2 races on turf from mlast year and the 7/1/06 race , a OC75/N4X event, was impressive in that he allowed the field to accelerate by him then was brought out to run the rest down. The speed of the track was fast that day at MTH but the fractions in that race were slow, all the more why I think his burst of energy and the way he won that day was impressive. A repeat effort will win today's race. The obvious question is readiness.

[Tom]

My problem with Timber is in his 3 turf sprint wins, he closes, now they are sending him. Wassup wit dat?

I'm hoping Coa has copy of the Form with him today, becase as a closer, Timber looks very good in here.

[classhandicapper]

To me, it looks like Silver Timber does his best racing from off the pace. It also seems pretty obvious there's plenty of speed in the race. So IMI, if Coa goes and gets caught up in the pace, he's pretty much an idiot. True, the horse has been racing closer to the pace lately. But that last race was a slow paced sprint, otherwise he may not have been so close. This is a very rateable horse.

I agree with those that think Miracle Man has been facing better and should get a decent set up. Obviously the problem is he's coming off a very long layoff. There's no way of telling how fit he's going to be today. Turf layoffs tend to do OK, but this is a long one. He could make a huge late run or he could finish up the track and do nothing. It's a guess.

I see the race as very wide open and would be hard pressed to pull the trigger on anyone. I'd probably take Silver Timber if the price was right (which it won't be) or use Miracle Man a little in exotics if I had a gun to my head.

[bellsbendboy]

Since I took a shot at the author of this thread, I felt compelled to at least offer my two cents. I do not play Belmont, never watch replays but have a modicum of understanding of how the movement of the turf rail affects pace.

Todays race is on the hedge which by definition favors closers (the pace is always faster with the rail down) and there is ample speed entered to eliminate a theft. From a scholastic standpoint, Brohamer asks in his classic 2000 book MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING, "Is there a preferred running style at this racetrack"? Then opines "pace handicappers unable to answer this question are playing with one hand tied behind their back". Like most, if not all, books on handicapping, the turf rail is ignored or barely mentioned.

In the seventh today, I cannot fathom REDEFINED as having strong pace figures, unless the analysis/program does not differentiate between distances, a big error. The 6yo Labeeb horse is only a pace factor at two turns. Similarly, Mathematician will not be in front versus these. Both Count on Pal and Daddy Joe will argue the pace.

As a total overview of an enigmatic race:

MIRACLE MAN means business today. A winner of his first three races including his debut at five eighths, Hennig had a myriad of choices to
bring the "governors" 5yo homebred back from off the shelf. A decided edge in class, the question is fitness, but note Yankee Victor 5yo has been working since mid_May and last Sunday, Hennig took him to the main track, probably to put some speed into him. Tagged up here per force and plenty dangerous.

Count on Pal and Daddy Joe appear cheap speed and will be out of all exotics, unless one of them scratches, breaks badly etc.

Ever a Friend was beaten in Delaware at 1-2 by a wire to wire winner with the rail way out (25ft) and his ride was less than inspiring. He has never been tagged, but the zero activity in June is a big bad red flag, even with the clever Clemente driving the bus.

SILVER TIMBER came off the shelf but could not get to 'PAL and a Clemente 3yo. After a bullet turf work, the 4yo was entered by the very vanilla Rice June 29th at seven panels but the race came off. The pace will be severe here and it is difficult to accept a short price with his condition a question, but he is a threat.

"Math" Royal blue color bearer finally gets some class relief from the usually conservative bin Suroor. Machiavellian 5yo made the races at two and won, so you know he's handy. Twice second in listed heats and once in a Grade III behind monster Turtle Bow. On the negative side he is only two for thirteen, has a pair of sixes this year and will be well backed.

REDEFINED has been solid since becoming a grass sprinter and Dutrow always dangerous off the claim. Entered last Sunday in a Jersey stake, but opted out with a salty favorite cruising. Merits a long look with J. R. taking the call
although last looks better than it was after leader lost almost all of his seven length advantage. Cetainly an on the board finish.

DELTA STORM will be somewhat overlooked but 6yo homebred is one tough hombre. Off for some sixty days, but he always fires fresh. His last would be good enough here when he was tag teamed by Darley entrymates. Bejarano replaces GoGo who is in Toronto and gets first run on the speed. Maybe.

Probably some traffic troubles, although the inside could open up late with the speed stopping and would favor the outside horses, but will not bet this heat. BBB

[DanG]

5, 6, 8 here or I rip up every pick-3 & 4.





1 / Miracle Man: Strictly a conditioning spot and tough to work out a trip at 6f coming from 8th early.
3 / Count On Pal: Won’t enjoy the last 1/16th after playing tag with Daddy Joe.
4 / Daddy Joe: Won’t enjoy the last 1/16th after playing tag with Count On Pal.
5 / Ever a Friend: Fits nicely here off troubled Delaware line and Clement is deadly off short rest.
6 / Silver Timber: Turf sprint specialist likes the course / distance / positive barn angles and plenty of pace to run at…what’s not to like?
7 / Mathematician (IRE): Visually looked flat to me in his two US starts and I don’t like Saeed when his races are compressed such as 3 starts in 35 days.
8 / Redefined: Contender on dope and obvious wicked trainer off claim and only 6/13 with new stock in a turf sprint.
9 / Delta Storm: Hate leaving out animals in career form, but virtually guaranteed to lose ground when the 2 and 3 send hard and doesn’t have enough margin for error IMO.

[BIG RED]

i would bet the 2 horse el prado rob


I was going to take him myself for a longshot angle I like.

He's scratched.
Looks like mathametition?

[DJofSD]

I agree, Mathematician, who should be just behind the early pace setters and inheriting the lead when they fade. Silver Timber up for place.

[toetoe]

I love Redefined. Of course, consider the source. :bang:

[DJofSD]

Silver Timber is the winner while Mathematician ran like a POS.

[BIG RED]

you're good Dan,

I bet to late, kind of 'won', pool closed :jump:

[Tom]

Did Coa ride that 6 or what????
Just like I hoped, took him back, grabbed the rail (more than I hoped for) and set himself up perfectly.

Tip of the hat for bringing up the race......got my interest up and I'll take 7-2 any day. The more I loked at the race, the more I was sure Coa would ride him better.

Pace-wise- if I called him a front runner, how do I justify that slow pace last time, other than the lay off. If I called him a closer, he looked much better. And as you pointed out, 38% 2LO for Rice.

[sammy the sage]

but let's give credit...where credit is DUE...

YO...fat man....NICE CALL!

[DanG]

but let's give credit...where credit is DUE...
YO...fat man....NICE CALL!
Here…Here!!! :ThmbUp:

It’s a 'fat world and were all just visiting…

[classhandicapper]

but let's give credit...where credit is DUE...

YO...fat man....NICE CALL!

:ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

Did Coa ride that 6 or what????
Just like I hoped, took him back, grabbed the rail (more than I hoped for) and set himself up perfectly.

Tip of the hat for bringing up the race......got my interest up and I'll take 7-2 any day. The more I loked at the race, the more I was sure Coa would ride him better.

Pace-wise- if I called him a front runner, how do I justify that slow pace last time, other than the lay off. If I called him a closer, he looked much better. And as you pointed out, 38% 2LO for Rice.

To me it was a no-brainer that the horse was going to rate. Like I said earlier, Coa would have to be a total idiot to get involved there early. The horse did its best running from off the pace and the only reason he was close last time was the slow pace.

How much of an edge he had over some of the other contenders etc... and what price was appropriate was a more personal matter.

[BIG RED]

Dan, not to be prude, but did you catch

the bomb in the next race, for your serial bet?

[DanG]

Dan, not to be prude, but did you catch

the bomb in the next race, for your serial bet?
I did Red, but I can’t in all honesty take credit for it.

I was prepared this morning to single ‘#1 Accountforthegold like the rest of man kind when a friend pointed out a little red flag, so I also used #5 and 6 and got lucky.

His point was why pick this 100k state bred pot when the animal just ran a # that could compete in an open stake in Saratoga? To him it was curious spotting and he proved to be right. :)

[Tom]

OK, TFM was good on this race, BUT......let's see how good he really is.
I want to see a FatChart on the 7th at Canterbury....half the field on turf, half on dirt! :lol: Let me tell, from a pace standpoint, I GOT NO IDEA!

BTW, just saw the ostrich race there - Secrechariot won by daylight, to the call "Secrechariot is moving like a tremendous machine!" :rolleyes:

[the_fat_man]

Talk about a tight field.

Miracle Man ran an almost perfectly even race.

Ever a Friend dropped back on the turn (hard to see whether he found trouble or not)

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm pretty surprised 'Timber went off at 7-2. If I had been betting this race for real, I would have gladly taken that price.

Good call Fats....