Equiform's Fotias Supports Ellis 4% P4

[trigger]

THE TAKE STOPS HERE
Cary Fotias
President - Equiform
Member DRF/NTRA Players Panel


....."As an added inducement for players to support the Ellis Park Pick-4, Equiform will be offering free products every Saturday and Sunday of the Ellis Park meet. Just go to www.equiform.com (http://www.equiform.com) on the afternoon before to download The XTRAS and The SHORTS
for Ellis Park. You can also download the Legends for both of these products along with the Equiform Pattern Guide.
It's one step by Ron Geary and a giant step for horseplayers."
http://www.ellisparkracing.com/media/Documents/THE%20TAKE%20STOPS%20HERE.pdf


4% facts/figures:
http://www.ellisparkracing.com/media/Documents/Pick-4%20Payoff%20Facts.p

[GameTheory]

Please everyone bet into these 4% pools. If they do in fact go from an avg of 18.5k to 200k or so, that will get noticed -- looks like they are up to 65k or so now.

Corrected link from above:

Facts & Figures (http://www.ellisparkracing.com/media/Documents/Pick-4%20Payoff%20Facts.pdf)

[Rico8812]

I've played the P4 4 times so far. Hit 3 of 4 every time. haha.

[NYPlayer]

Bet all you can. The sale ends on Labor Day.

I think I'll stop everything I'm doing to go play pick 4's at Ellis to prove something about track take. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.:rolleyes:

Now, if it becomes policy at every Kentucky track year round, or if another major circuit adopts the same policy, then absolutely. I would move my game.

[DanG]

Bet all you can. The sale ends on Labor Day.

I think I'll stop everything I'm doing to go play pick 4's at Ellis to prove something about track take. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.:rolleyes:

Now, if it becomes policy at every Kentucky track year round, or if another major circuit adopts the same policy, then absolutely. I would move my game.
With all due respect…

What a narrow minded post IMHO. :ThmbDown:

No one suggested “moving ones game”, but if you don’t think the industry is looking at this your kidding yourself. Players like to talk about change on our behalf…well…here is a rare opportunity.

If only California could bet this and / or Vegas shops would offer it the pools would be 6 figures by now. :(

[NYPlayer]

With all due respect…

What a narrow minded post IMHO. :ThmbDown:

No one suggested “moving ones game”, but if you don’t think the industry is looking at this your kidding yourself. Players like to talk about change on our behalf…well…here is a rare opportunity.

If only California could bet this and / or Vegas shops would offer it the pools would be 6 figures by now. :(

My point is that its just not worth the effort. I only have so much time to handicap a card and limited funds to acquire the necessary information. I need to make everything count. And I think a lot other players feel the same way.

When I first heard about the Ellis P4, I seriously considered handicapping the Ellis card instead of Belmont. Then I found out it's only till Labor Day. What's the point of playing for two months at a discount at an unfamiliar track if you have to play for the other ten months of the year at the usual rate? Well, I guess I shoulda known there was a catch. There's a reason that a product gets put on the sales rack, and the laws of economics are no different whether it's racing or Macy's, and I think this is all self-serving to the industry masters rather than being beneficial for the players.

If a racing circuit was serious about performing the experiment, then they should discount the p4 to 4% or 5% for an entire year at least. That would give a serious player a chance to put together a winning season. Then you can count me in, and very likely the pools would rise dramatically as other players arrived at the same conlcusion. Of course, they know this, and so it's never gonna happen.

Good luck to everyone trying.

[DanG]

My point is that its just not worth the effort. I only have so much time to handicap a card and limited funds to acquire the necessary information. I need to make everything count. And I think a lot other players feel the same way.

When I first heard about the Ellis P4, I seriously considered handicapping the Ellis card instead of Belmont. Then I found out it's only till Labor Day. What's the point of playing for two months at a discount at an unfamiliar track if you have to play for the other ten months of the year at the usual rate? Well, I guess I shoulda known there was a catch. There's a reason that a product gets put on the sales rack, and the laws of economics are no different whether it's racing or Macy's, and I think this is all self-serving to the industry masters rather than being beneficial for the players.

If a racing circuit was serious about performing the experiment, then they should discount the p4 to 4% or 5% for an entire year at least. That would give a serious player a chance to put together a winning season. Then you can count me in, and very likely the pools would rise dramatically as other players arrived at the same conlcusion. Of course, they know this, and so it's never gonna happen.

Good luck to everyone trying.
I hear ya on one level NY;

Unfortunately tracks do not operate independently of state legislators, so these “experiments” are few and far between.

Even a token bet by every player who has access would do nothing but help all of us in the long run IMO.

[DeanT]

There's a reason that a product gets put on the sales rack, and the laws of economics are no different whether it's racing or Macy's, and I think this is all self-serving to the industry masters rather than being beneficial for the players.



The industry masters hate Ellis Park for doing this.

All the more reason to support it.

[Kelso]

If a racing circuit was serious about performing the experiment, then they should discount the p4 to 4% or 5% for an entire year at least.


This is being offered by an independently owned track, not by a circuit. I understand that the owner is a horse player as well as a businessman. This trial plays well to both of his interests ... but that doesn't prevent it from playing to our singular interest as bettors.

I agree with Dan and Dean that it's worthy of support ... even if only token ... and that other tracks are hoping it will fail so that they (and their legislatures) won't have to cave in to the market for reasonable takeouts.

Hell, throw a buck into the pool and play your kids' birthdays. Consider it an investment.

[DeanT]

It's also a selfish decision for me, and prolly all of us, Kelso. I have played Pick 4's at several tracks. The best I have ever gotten my ROI up to on the sweep bet is around 0.94.

I can not beat a 25% rake, for whatever reason, and I am not afraid to admit it. Heck, some states have lotteries with a 25% rake. It is hard.

I figure if I can achieve a 0.94 ROI at a 25% rake track like Belmont, I am going to make money at a 4% track like EP. The rake is over 600% less at EP than Belmont. I should try something new if I can't beat that take.

In the end it comes down to this: I like money. So I choose EP.

[betchatoo]

Bet all you can. The sale ends on Labor Day.

I think I'll stop everything I'm doing to go play pick 4's at Ellis to prove something about track take. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.:rolleyes:

Now, if it becomes policy at every Kentucky track year round, or if another major circuit adopts the same policy, then absolutely. I would move my game.
Does this mean that if a bank started giving away money for 2 months, you wouldn't take it? Because at the end of those 2 months, what would you do for money?

The point is that the rest of the racing world is watching this experiment. If it is an overwhelming success than others will join in and you might get your year round policy. But if horse players just sit around and do nothing, tracks will have no reason to change.

[SMOO]

In the end it comes down to this: I like money. So I choose EP.

:ThmbUp:

[jma]

Does this mean that if a bank started giving away money for 2 months, you wouldn't take it? Because at the end of those 2 months, what would you do for money?

The point is that the rest of the racing world is watching this experiment. If it is an overwhelming success than others will join in and you might get your year round policy. But if horse players just sit around and do nothing, tracks will have no reason to change.

And it's not exactly a "sale", is it? Ellis is offering the bet the whole time they are open. You might have noticed there are several tracks in Kentucky. It's not as if Turfway and Keeneland run the same races/horses anyway, so the "circuit" complaint doesn't make much sense.

I don't know much about the Indiana Downs horses running at Ellis, but I'm ahead betting the Pick 4 at Ellis. I have to conclude that it's not my brilliance ;) , but the low takeout and having some knowledge of how to play Pick 4s. As Dean (I believe) said, if you can come close to being profitable with 25% takeout, you should do better with 4% takeout.

[DeanT]

It is kinda cool to me too, jma. When I was getting better at Pick 4's I learned that I had to take a stand - go out on a limb in every pick 4. Not because I wanted to, but because you have to because the rake kills you and you have to beat the crowd. That was my single most purpose to try to get better. The strike rate was low, and it is frustrating.

It is very cool now, that I can just do a few fundamental things with the EP tickets. I work on handicapping horses and making smart tickets instead of worrying about tossing faves, or looking for bombs to beat the rake. It is a completely different strategy for me now and it is fun - I can actually try and handicap!

This is probably the most friendly ROI bet in the history of thoroughbred racing. When you are used to trying to beat the crowd by 25 freaking percent for the past twenty years of betting, it will certainly take some getting used to. It feels weird to not get bent over :D

[Figman]

In New York, only New York City OTB takes the Ellis Park Pick-Four that I know of.

Do any of the other five OTBs or NYRA, Finger Lakes, Buffalo Raceway, Monticello Raceway, Saratoga Raceway, Tioga Downs, Yonkers Raceway or Vernon Downs take the Ellis Park Pick-4?

[ezrabrooks]

I don't know the KY takeouts...but at 200K P-4 pools, how much is Ellis Park going to be losing a day?

Ez

[Premier Turf Club]

This is being offered by an independently owned track, not by a circuit. I understand that the owner is a horse player as well as a businessman. This trial plays well to both of his interests ... but that doesn't prevent it from playing to our singular interest as bettors.

I agree with Dan and Dean that it's worthy of support ... even if only token ... and that other tracks are hoping it will fail so that they (and their legislatures) won't have to cave in to the market for reasonable takeouts.

Hell, throw a buck into the pool and play your kids' birthdays. Consider it an investment.

You guys know me by now. There is rarely anything positive I can say about what's going on in the industry.

Ron Geary is terrific for the game. He's also a first class human being. I know Cary Fotias and he's all class as well.:ThmbUp:

[BillW]

You guys know me by now. There is rarely anything positive I can say about what's going on in the industry.

Ron Geary is terrific for the game. He's also a first class human being. I know Cary Fotias and he's all class as well.:ThmbUp:

Any chance of Geary allowing you to give him a hand at building his handle? :)

[Pace Cap'n]

I don't know the KY takeouts...but at 200K P-4 pools, how much is Ellis Park going to be losing a day?

Ez

If the handle increases by a factor of five due to the lower takeout, the loss will be nil.

[ezrabrooks]

If the handle increases by a factor of five due to the lower takeout, the loss will be nil.

Are you talking about the p-4 handle increasing, or the total handle, increasing by a factor of five? If you are talking about the p-4 handle increasing by a facor of five, resulting in a nil loss, you will have to explain it to me.

Ez

[DeanT]

Are you talking about the p-4 handle increasing, or the total handle, increasing by a factor of five? If you are talking about the p-4 handle increasing by a facor of five, resulting in a nil loss, you will have to explain it to me.

Ez

Last year $18K pick 4 pool average. At a 20% rake, $3600 per day went to the track(s) and purses and g'vt.

If it reaches a 90,000 pool at a 4% rake $3600 is returned to the track(s), purses and g'vt.

If handle goes up a megre 2% per day (40K), and the Pick 4 stays at about $60,000 as it has, then they received free advertising of their track, and they have done so while getting appreciably equal revenue.

If this pool goes to 200K like it should, then they will be making more than double the money they made last year on the bet.

[ezrabrooks]

Last year $18K pick 4 pool average. At a 20% rake, $3600 per day went to the track(s) and purses and g'vt.

If it reaches a 90,000 pool at a 4% rake $3600 is returned to the track(s), purses and g'vt.

If handle goes up a megre 2% per day (40K), and the Pick 4 stays at about $60,000 as it has, then they received free advertising of their track, and they have done so while getting appreciably equal revenue.

If this pool goes to 200K like it should, then they will be making more than double the money they made last year on the bet.

So all of the parties involved in the takeout (State, horseman, etc.) are all now participating in the 4% deal. I thought that would have taken an act of God to get them to participate on that basis.

Ez

[DeanT]

I thought that would have taken an act of God to get them to participate on that basis.

Ez

From reading the blog by Pricci, I think it did. Geary isn't only a sharp businessman, it appears he is a magician as well.

Im thinking David Blaine must work at EP :)

[NYPlayer]

This is being offered by an independently owned track, not by a circuit. I understand that the owner is a horse player as well as a businessman. This trial plays well to both of his interests ... but that doesn't prevent it from playing to our singular interest as bettors.

I agree with Dan and Dean that it's worthy of support ... even if only token ... and that other tracks are hoping it will fail so that they (and their legislatures) won't have to cave in to the market for reasonable takeouts.

Hell, throw a buck into the pool and play your kids' birthdays. Consider it an investment.

I have to admit, the enthusiasm is catchy. I'll give it a try this weekend. And with Fotias giving away Xtras, it might be a good time to see what they're all about.