PolyTrack Surface @ Del Mar--TAKACH REPORT

[socalsportsbook]

I have just received some news from Joe and how they are changing their report for Del Mar.
"Every year we always seem to generate something new for Del Mar. I'd like to change the PolyReport by giving not only the total trainer stats as we currently do but break down the satats by the following:
Maiden Special Weights
Maiden Claiming
Claimers
Starter Allowance
Allowance
Stakes
2 year olds
Break down the RP's by Category
Turf Stats on each trainer for their respective classifications"

As I read the changes, I began to think how I would approach DMR this season? It's a whole new ball game. Forget about how "the tide affects the surface late in the card bull. This is an artificial surface! I'll need some historical help and I think this report may give me an edge!!

[46zilzal]

I wonder if handle will be down the first few weeks as a result of the day to night changes?

[Ray]

I wonder if handle will be down the first few weeks as a result of the day to night changes?

I think the handle is going to JUMP! there are tons of fresh horses so there will be huge fields ready to go . I think this place will be pick 6 c/o heaven at least this year

[so.cal.fan]

The handle will be up as long as the pools are on the up and up.
They had two very unfortunate incidents at Hollywood Park, the pool was compromised, 6/1 hitting the stretch.......7/2 at the wire. Hollywood gets a pretty good sized handle.....so do the math. Not a good sign. Looks like the off shore money laundering is back in business.
http://www.dmtc.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15174

[xciceroguy]

They are running at night?

[Maji]

The handle will be up as long as the pools are on the up and up.
They had two very unfortunate incidents at Hollywood Park, the pool was compromised, 6/1 hitting the stretch.......7/2 at the wire. Hollywood gets a pretty good sized handle.....so do the math. Not a good sign. Looks like the off shore money laundering is back in business.
http://www.dmtc.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15174

And they won't let US based shops take in bets. What a shame! :mad:

[so.cal.fan]

Hollywood ran every Friday night except one.....Ky. Oaks day.

[bigmack]

They are running at night?
Nah, Zilly threw in the day to night change line as a bad example of them going from dirt to poly.

[Edward DeVere]

I think the handle is going to JUMP! there are tons of fresh horses so there will be huge fields ready to go . I think this place will be pick 6 c/o heaven at least this year

Del Mar had to ditch its traditional opening dirt (now Poly) race because they couldn't make a $16,000 claiming route go.

When it comes to California racing, "huge fields" is a relative term.

[DanG]

Del Mar had to ditch its traditional opening dirt (now Poly) race because they couldn't make a $16,000 claiming route go.

When it comes to California racing, "huge fields" is a relative term.
For the record…

I think if you polled most horseplayers (and we know how painful that can be) they would swear NY has a larger average filed size than So Cal and it’s just not true.

There seems to be a misconception about So-Cal field sizes as compared to almost any track in their purse range.

[PaceAdvantage]

A database guy ought to be able to answer that question with cold hard facts. What's the average field size of Belmont vs. Hollywood and Saratoga vs. Del Mar?

[BIG RED]

This will be the 1st year I don't bet DelMar, will be watching most of Aug.

and MDNS was my best there.

[SMOO]

The handle will be up as long as the pools are on the up and up.
They had two very unfortunate incidents at Hollywood Park, the pool was compromised, 6/1 hitting the stretch.......7/2 at the wire. Hollywood gets a pretty good sized handle.....so do the math. Not a good sign. Looks like the off shore money laundering is back in business.
http://www.dmtc.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15174

Post I found interesting on that thread:

Why can't Fixed Odds Wagering be implemented in North America ?

Legalized books should be allowed on site to conduct business in the manner
of European race wagering.
With Win odds as well as Exacta Matrices offered in order to stimulate
the local product and get the fans to come out to the racetrack for the live racing programs.

The shop for odds concept would supplement well
with the current parimutuel wagering pools.
A viable alternative solution to the problem.

The racing industry still continues to ignore the problems with the pari-mutuel system
nearly a decade after the Breeders' Cup Fix Six scandal.
Are we bettors not screaming loud enough ? http://www.dmtc.com/images/chat/Emoticon13.gif

[DanG]

A database guy ought to be able to answer that question with cold hard facts. What's the average field size of Belmont vs. Hollywood and Saratoga vs. Del Mar?
Last year of “cold hard facts”…

TRACK AVG_FLD
SA 8.51
SAR 8.5
DMR 8.46
FPX 8.31
HOL 8.29
BEL 8.07
AQU 8.01
AQUi 7.79

[PaceAdvantage]

So the score is even....Hollywood beats Belmont and Saratoga beats Del Mar....

Hollywood vs. Belmont includes the current meet, correct?

[DanG]

So the score is even....Hollywood beats Belmont and Saratoga beats Del Mar....

Hollywood vs. Belmont includes the current meet, correct?
Yes…It includes the current meet.

“Even”…is a bit of a stretch IMHO.

When you consider the locations of feeder tracks and the highest overhead in the world to race, So Cal’s product (fld / handle) is remarkable.

I’m from your neck of the woods Mike and I’m as provincial in many ways as the next guy, but I think you’ll have to admit the circumstances don’t make a level playing field.

[how cliche]

Quinn's Article On The Subject...

http://www.delmarracing.com/season/polytrack-handicapping.php

[PaceAdvantage]

Look, you'll get no argument from me that NY has been suffering from small field syndrome for a while now. That's why they've been carding more and more turf races I suppose, despite claiming in the past that too many turf sprints will "chew up the turf course."

I wonder if the warming attitude towards NYRA by both the Governor and the horsemen will change that situation for the better.

[DanG]

Look, you'll get no argument from me that NY has been suffering from small field syndrome for a while now. That's why they've been carding more and more turf races I suppose, despite claiming in the past that too many turf sprints will "chew up the turf course."

I wonder if the warming attitude towards NYRA by both the Governor and the horsemen will change that situation for the better.
Mike [PA];


I hope what I said isn’t construed as a knock on NY racing. It’s my favorite circuit in the world.

I hope and pray they make the right call on the next management team (assuming they make a change) because with their facilities, tradition, grandfathered graded advantage and access to horses in the region they should clearly be our country’s flagship circuit.

[GMB@BP]

Last year of “cold hard facts”…

TRACK AVG_FLD
SA 8.51
SAR 8.5
DMR 8.46
FPX 8.31
HOL 8.29
BEL 8.07
AQU 8.01
AQUi 7.79

those numbers are very surprising given the amount of tracks that can ship into the NY circuit versus the socal area.

It also shows the amount of mis information. I recently did a study on how front runners faired in socal versus other circuits and suprisingly NY came up second to Florida.

But the myth is small fields and cheap speed win in socal when that does not appear to be the case. I noticed between the 6th race saturday and the last race sunday at belmont they carded 11/13 of the races on turf.

[Tom]

I hope to see a lot more turf sprints. Kudos for carding them more and more.
Now, if they just get a "6" of two in some of the stakes races.......:bang:
What I really miss is the classified allownace races - they were really a puzzle and you had to read the conditions carefully. The Optional claimers are a graet idea, I think. Hey, the more spots they open up for NY breds to win, the better the cards will be. At FL, they can run in NW1,2,3,4 lifetime, then Statebred, NW1,2,3. Makes for a lot more competitive racing.

[thelyingthief]

i question those figures:

SA may card, if not a greater number of maiden races, maiden races more likely to attract generally larger fields than later in the year. additionally, the oaktree meet (is the OT meet inclusive?) usually sees somewhat larger fields than Del Mar and Hollywood, because a) the 2yr olds are running more often, b) the FairPlex meet is treated as part of a freshening schedule for local stock, and c) trainers with nationally prominent barns are starting to move their animals into fall and winter venues.

So, seems to me, one aspect of this question becomes: which of these tracks sees larger fields in PLAYABLE races?

Another question becomes: which of these tracks sees the highest quality of competition in its general population?

in one way, the question can be answered by noting which track cards the fewest cheap claimers; in another, by noting which track shows the highest average odds.

for what that's worth...
tlt

[GMB@BP]

i question those figures:

SA may card, if not a greater number of maiden races, maiden races more likely to attract generally larger fields than later in the year. additionally, the oaktree meet (is the OT meet inclusive?) usually sees somewhat larger fields than Del Mar and Hollywood, because a) the 2yr olds are running more often, b) the FairPlex meet is treated as part of a freshening schedule for local stock, and c) trainers with nationally prominent barns are starting to move their animals into fall and winter venues.

So, seems to me, one aspect of this question becomes: which of these tracks sees larger fields in PLAYABLE races?

Another question becomes: which of these tracks sees the highest quality of competition in its general population?

in one way, the question can be answered by noting which track cards the fewest cheap claimers; in another, by noting which track shows the highest average odds.

for what that's worth...
tlt

you mean the 12 horse 2yo mdn for new york breds are much easier to handicap then the two year old cal breds, of course carded frequently at both tracks late in the year? You are much better then I am because I have been trying to figure those ny breds that proliferate the ny cards for a year now and I am no closer then when I started.

[thelyingthief]

i'm at a loss to see how you interpreted my post in the way you did.

i have only rarely, very rarely bet two year olds, never two year old males, and no two year old claimers. some no doubt can do it, but i'm oblivious to the charm.

i bet vertical exotics to the exclusion of sequential plays, for just this reason, too many types of races, like two year and grass races, needing more data evaluation than i have the desire or feel the need to undertake.

tlt