how overlooking 1 scintilla of info can cost you a winning bet.

[rcknhrse]

Sunday night 4th race from mountaineer
7.5 f on turf
turf is a little tougher since this race has lot of non turf start horses,but i handicap disregarding whether horse ran on turf or dirt
using bris pp's
pace(taken from 2 most recent starts on fast ,good or firm tracks)
6-5-3
sf1
5-6-7-3 (same as above)
sf(2)
5-6-7-3(taken from last 4)
quirin speed point(taken from 2 most recent)
6-2-(5-7-8)
tr win%
6-3-8-(1-2)
tr ITM%
8-6-3-9
LATE PACE
4-10-5
TOP 4 SPEED FIG TURF ONLY FROM 4 MOST RECENT STARTS
5-6-4-3
THE 5 WAS MADE THE 9-5 FAV.
THE 6 WAS 5-2
FOR ME THE 6 WAS A STANDOUT BECAUSE OF THE TR % ON TURF 35% WIN 65% ITM FROM 52 STARTS
MY MISTAKE WAS NOT DRAWING A CIRCLE AROUND THE TR % ON THE 1 ,WHY I DON'T KNOW EXCEPT I HATE WHEN I GET MORE THAN 4 HORSES IN ANY COLUMN.THAT COL WAS 6-3-8(1-2)
SO AFTER GLANCING AT MY PAPER WORK I NOTICED I HAD EVERY HORSE CIRCLED EXCEPT THE 1 ,SO I WHEELED THE 6 OVER AND UNDER AND EXCLUDED THE 1
I ALSO BET THE 6 PLACE AND SHOW
THE 1 WINS AT 11-1. #1 zero turf starts but trainer had %22 dirt to turf
6 RUNS 2ND pays 4.80 and 4.00
$1 EX PAYS 68.10
THE 3 RUNS 3RD,YOU CAN SEE HOW OFTEN THE 3 AND 6 SHOW UP IN THESE CATEGORIES.
NOT CIRCLING THE 1 EVEN THOUGH I HAD IT WRITTEN DOWN COST ME THAT BET
http://www.theclubhouseturn.com/forums/Themes/dilbermcntp/images/icons/modify_inline.gif

[Kelso]

FOR ME THE 6 WAS A STANDOUT BECAUSE OF THE TR % ON TURF


Rock,
What is a "TR %"? Thank you.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Rock,
What is a "TR %"? Thank you.
My guess is (current race) TRack.

[cj]

Trainer?

[ryesteve]

MY MISTAKE WAS NOT DRAWING A CIRCLE AROUND THE TR % ON THE 1
Somehow I can't imagine that betting the horse whose tied for the 4th best trainer w%, and doesn't rank in the top 4 of ANY other factor you're considering, would be a long-term profitable play.

[Premier Turf Club]

I played the turf races at MNR last night. I think the biggest screw-up was letting the winner of the 2nd get off at 20-1. Trainer Wolfendale (Sue not Howard) did the EXACT same thing the year before, bringing Morgan's Creek back off a long lay at MNR in a cheap claimer to pay $74. This time the horse pays $42.

Of course, I missed it too, having spent just 3 minutes handicapping the race, and keyed the slightly faster 3rd place finisher. After the race when I saw the pattern match, I felt like a dope.:(

[rcknhrse]

sorry for the non descrpt abbreviations

TR means trainer

the trainer of the 6 had a 35% win on turf starts

that is strong
i always look at the top 4 win% trainers
and the top 4 ITM trainers itm= in the money
the mistake was leaving the 1 out of the exacta
certainly having only the %22 win from dirt to turf is not enough to key .i had the key horse #6 who ran an exceptional race considering the 300+ days away

[Kelso]

TR means trainer
horse #6 who ran an exceptional race considering the 300+ days away


Thank you Rock (and CJ/Ken).

As an aside, I recently heard Ron Rippey - 2006 "Handicapper of the Year" and 'capper for the Newark Star Ledger - paraphrase Pletcher to the effect that layoffs don't matter much anymore. Rippey didn't elaborate, but my take was that Pletcher feels layoff training methods are much improved.

I have seen several 200+ day layoffs win/place at Monmouth over the past two meets.

[Robert Fischer]

you have to seperate facts from information, and then relative facts from unimportant facts. I missed a pretty easy superfecta in the american oaks because i put too much weight on the word that Anamato wasn't eating well.