Que
12-14-2002, 12:18 AM
Winmanwin, MVMcKee, and myself had a very nice, and profitable chat in the war room this evening. The topic was jockeys and trainers darkening a horse's form. The discussion occurred prior, during, and after the 8th race at Sam Houston. I think this was a classic example of a horse showing darkened form, and also it demonstrated the value of trainer/jockey/owner stats to help point it out. But instead of past posting my analysis, with the consent of Winmanwin & MVMcKee, I'm posting the transcript of our discussion. My question is this... how do you determine if a horse's form is darkened and if the horse's connections or stable are prepping the battlefield for a big score? One of my theories is very simple--a stable with family connections, either Trnr/Ownr, Trnr/Jky, or Trnr/Jky/Ownr, is much more likely to tip their hand than other stables/connections. Your thoughts?
(BTW, excuse our typing, grammer, and spelling... we're horseplayers not typists)
begin transcript...
23:01:03 [WINMANWIN] on to the question now.name 3 things in life we can be sure of
23:01:27 [WINMANWIN] a 2 yr old named defy logic from the padua stable they also own VINDICATION
23:01:58 [que] death... taxes... & (hmmmm...)
23:02:03 [WINMANWIN] answer DEATH,TAXES, AND JOCKS NEVER PASSING A POLY TEST ! LOL
23:02:40 [que] Yes... that' true
23:03:17 [WINMANWIN] before they ride there 1st race they know the deal
23:03:34 [que] #6 is an interesting coming up at SH... 12/1 ML now 6-1... Garner & Garner is a good combo too
23:04:13 [WINMANWIN] let me go to ubet and watch
23:04:19 [que] #6's last race was poor, but previous too were decent performances
23:06:41 [que] #6's trnr has a +20% ROI (195 races) when saddling his own horses, plus the jock has the same last name (possible inside action here?--not to mentioned the darkened form last out)--maybe worth a shot at 8-1
23:06:44 [WINMANWIN] tst
23:07:19 [WINMANWIN] good info could be and they are related
23:07:51 [WINMANWIN] how much time to post time
23:08:11 [que] 4 MTP
23:08:22 [WINMANWIN] ok
23:08:27 [que] I'm biting on the #6 at 7-1...
23:08:34 [WINMANWIN] im gonna watch on u bet
23:09:42 [que] My last bet for the night... I'll either finish with a -100% ROI or a +100% ROI for the night
23:10:55 [que] Another scratch at less than 2 MTP
23:11:33 [WINMANWIN] unreal with late scratches i hate that
23:11:55 [WINMANWIN] another beautiful thing about this game......
23:12:15 [WINMANWIN] just like uncoupled horses,,,,another injustice
23:12:41 [que] #6 will need to move up a notch to win here; but her connections have done it before
23:12:50 [WINMANWIN] they are approaching the gate small fiels to good luck que
23:13:20 [WINMANWIN] 6 hoss is up to 13 to 1 wow..........
23:13:36 [MVMcKee] unfortunately I think the 8 looks tough...but this is a very nice price on the 2
23:13:42 [que] Wow... went from 7-1 to 15-1... someone dropped a ton of money on the #8 to win (went from 7-2 to 8/5 in less than a minute)
23:13:45 [MVMcKee] had to use the 2 as a key
23:14:02 [MVMcKee] hope it comes in with your 6 que
23:14:37 [que] Well worth a try at 13-1...
23:15:12 [WINMANWIN] you the man at 16 to 1
23:15:24 [WINMANWIN] hoss won by 5
23:15:36 [WINMANWIN] you the capper que...............
23:15:45 [MVMcKee] nice hit
23:16:02 [que] Definitely an inside job...
23:16:10 [MVMcKee] I got a $1 tri
23:16:47 [que] Make that +200% ROI for the night... should be a nice tri McK
23:16:49 [WINMANWIN] you called the relationship angle trainer jock
23:16:50 [MVMcKee] 100% return que?....or higher at 16-1
23:17:25 [WINMANWIN] husband and wife combo ????????
23:17:41 [MVMcKee] I just wheeled 2 1st 2nd and 3rd with 1,3,6,7,8...$60
23:18:36 [WINMANWIN] $35.40 for the win....how sweet it is
23:18:38 [MVMcKee] damn, nice super also
23:18:41 [que] I don't know, but owner/trnr/jky all had same name
23:18:50 [MVMcKee] way to end the night que
23:19:00 [que] Nice $1,000 tri McK...
23:19:10 [MVMcKee] that is $2 pay
23:19:14 [MVMcKee] right?
23:19:18 [WINMANWIN] way to go mckee
23:19:33 [MVMcKee] 522.20
23:20:15 [MVMcKee] thx
23:20:27 [WINMANWIN] 522 for a buck right exacta was 155 for 2 i believe right
23:20:35 [MVMcKee] now I have $112 into a goat race here at PM
23:20:49 [WINMANWIN] 2 exactas and 2 quins there i think
23:21:01 [que] Sometimes I'm amazed at people's picks in this room... real good cappers hang out here
23:21:43 [WINMANWIN] you the capper que......analysis was great and i liked as soon as you said
23:22:07 [WINMANWIN] donuts had a bad line last out possibly stiffed lol and price time
23:23:36 [MVMcKee] damn, this rail is paved here tonight
23:25:08 [MVMcKee] you got the exacta WIN?....good job, how did that come back?
23:25:13 [que] Oh yeah... classic example of darkened form... but comment line said "strong finish"--definitely a indication of darkened form, but connections still had to check her ability last 1/8M before making a bet
23:26:37 [WINMANWIN] yes good point and great price........
23:27:02 [que] We should save the end of this transcript to post on the forum... not to brag, but trainers darking a horses form would make a very interesting topic...
23:27:22 [WINMANWIN] with the smaller tracks the money changes big time and the odds go up and down more often than the larger tracks naturally
23:27:58 [WINMANWIN] que its common knowledge.lets go back to death taxes and jocks never passing a poly
23:28:16 [WINMANWIN] small tracks or large tracks it happens all the time
23:28:37 [WINMANWIN] jocks simply dont try and exercise there mounts at times
23:29:32 [WINMANWIN] i dont have the form so i have no opinions.late workouts not published i just heard on the pa system
23:29:56 [WINMANWIN] que you have pp's who looks ok here
23:30:10 [WINMANWIN] do you follow sam houston much
23:30:15 [que] If you two agree, I'll post the a copy an abreviated version of our discussion--(if not, no big deal...)
23:30:45 [MVMcKee] no prob
23:30:55 [MVMcKee] you want the PP WIN?
23:31:12 [MVMcKee] do you have HDRF?
23:32:20 [que] I kinda like the #2 next race at SH; but don't like the odds
23:32:34 [WINMANWIN] cool with me post it all
end of transcipt...
Que.
(BTW, excuse our typing, grammer, and spelling... we're horseplayers not typists)
begin transcript...
23:01:03 [WINMANWIN] on to the question now.name 3 things in life we can be sure of
23:01:27 [WINMANWIN] a 2 yr old named defy logic from the padua stable they also own VINDICATION
23:01:58 [que] death... taxes... & (hmmmm...)
23:02:03 [WINMANWIN] answer DEATH,TAXES, AND JOCKS NEVER PASSING A POLY TEST ! LOL
23:02:40 [que] Yes... that' true
23:03:17 [WINMANWIN] before they ride there 1st race they know the deal
23:03:34 [que] #6 is an interesting coming up at SH... 12/1 ML now 6-1... Garner & Garner is a good combo too
23:04:13 [WINMANWIN] let me go to ubet and watch
23:04:19 [que] #6's last race was poor, but previous too were decent performances
23:06:41 [que] #6's trnr has a +20% ROI (195 races) when saddling his own horses, plus the jock has the same last name (possible inside action here?--not to mentioned the darkened form last out)--maybe worth a shot at 8-1
23:06:44 [WINMANWIN] tst
23:07:19 [WINMANWIN] good info could be and they are related
23:07:51 [WINMANWIN] how much time to post time
23:08:11 [que] 4 MTP
23:08:22 [WINMANWIN] ok
23:08:27 [que] I'm biting on the #6 at 7-1...
23:08:34 [WINMANWIN] im gonna watch on u bet
23:09:42 [que] My last bet for the night... I'll either finish with a -100% ROI or a +100% ROI for the night
23:10:55 [que] Another scratch at less than 2 MTP
23:11:33 [WINMANWIN] unreal with late scratches i hate that
23:11:55 [WINMANWIN] another beautiful thing about this game......
23:12:15 [WINMANWIN] just like uncoupled horses,,,,another injustice
23:12:41 [que] #6 will need to move up a notch to win here; but her connections have done it before
23:12:50 [WINMANWIN] they are approaching the gate small fiels to good luck que
23:13:20 [WINMANWIN] 6 hoss is up to 13 to 1 wow..........
23:13:36 [MVMcKee] unfortunately I think the 8 looks tough...but this is a very nice price on the 2
23:13:42 [que] Wow... went from 7-1 to 15-1... someone dropped a ton of money on the #8 to win (went from 7-2 to 8/5 in less than a minute)
23:13:45 [MVMcKee] had to use the 2 as a key
23:14:02 [MVMcKee] hope it comes in with your 6 que
23:14:37 [que] Well worth a try at 13-1...
23:15:12 [WINMANWIN] you the man at 16 to 1
23:15:24 [WINMANWIN] hoss won by 5
23:15:36 [WINMANWIN] you the capper que...............
23:15:45 [MVMcKee] nice hit
23:16:02 [que] Definitely an inside job...
23:16:10 [MVMcKee] I got a $1 tri
23:16:47 [que] Make that +200% ROI for the night... should be a nice tri McK
23:16:49 [WINMANWIN] you called the relationship angle trainer jock
23:16:50 [MVMcKee] 100% return que?....or higher at 16-1
23:17:25 [WINMANWIN] husband and wife combo ????????
23:17:41 [MVMcKee] I just wheeled 2 1st 2nd and 3rd with 1,3,6,7,8...$60
23:18:36 [WINMANWIN] $35.40 for the win....how sweet it is
23:18:38 [MVMcKee] damn, nice super also
23:18:41 [que] I don't know, but owner/trnr/jky all had same name
23:18:50 [MVMcKee] way to end the night que
23:19:00 [que] Nice $1,000 tri McK...
23:19:10 [MVMcKee] that is $2 pay
23:19:14 [MVMcKee] right?
23:19:18 [WINMANWIN] way to go mckee
23:19:33 [MVMcKee] 522.20
23:20:15 [MVMcKee] thx
23:20:27 [WINMANWIN] 522 for a buck right exacta was 155 for 2 i believe right
23:20:35 [MVMcKee] now I have $112 into a goat race here at PM
23:20:49 [WINMANWIN] 2 exactas and 2 quins there i think
23:21:01 [que] Sometimes I'm amazed at people's picks in this room... real good cappers hang out here
23:21:43 [WINMANWIN] you the capper que......analysis was great and i liked as soon as you said
23:22:07 [WINMANWIN] donuts had a bad line last out possibly stiffed lol and price time
23:23:36 [MVMcKee] damn, this rail is paved here tonight
23:25:08 [MVMcKee] you got the exacta WIN?....good job, how did that come back?
23:25:13 [que] Oh yeah... classic example of darkened form... but comment line said "strong finish"--definitely a indication of darkened form, but connections still had to check her ability last 1/8M before making a bet
23:26:37 [WINMANWIN] yes good point and great price........
23:27:02 [que] We should save the end of this transcript to post on the forum... not to brag, but trainers darking a horses form would make a very interesting topic...
23:27:22 [WINMANWIN] with the smaller tracks the money changes big time and the odds go up and down more often than the larger tracks naturally
23:27:58 [WINMANWIN] que its common knowledge.lets go back to death taxes and jocks never passing a poly
23:28:16 [WINMANWIN] small tracks or large tracks it happens all the time
23:28:37 [WINMANWIN] jocks simply dont try and exercise there mounts at times
23:29:32 [WINMANWIN] i dont have the form so i have no opinions.late workouts not published i just heard on the pa system
23:29:56 [WINMANWIN] que you have pp's who looks ok here
23:30:10 [WINMANWIN] do you follow sam houston much
23:30:15 [que] If you two agree, I'll post the a copy an abreviated version of our discussion--(if not, no big deal...)
23:30:45 [MVMcKee] no prob
23:30:55 [MVMcKee] you want the PP WIN?
23:31:12 [MVMcKee] do you have HDRF?
23:32:20 [que] I kinda like the #2 next race at SH; but don't like the odds
23:32:34 [WINMANWIN] cool with me post it all
end of transcipt...
Que.