United Nations- English Channel or Better Talk Now?

[tomcalta]

$750,000 United Nations Stakes (gr. IT, Race 9, 4:53 p.m.), 3 & Up, 1 3/8 Miles (Turf)
PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey
1. English Channel (KY), 118, John R. Velazquez
2. Better Talk Now (KY), 122, Ramon A. Dominguez
3. Embossed (IRE), 118, Eddie Castro
4. Fri Guy (KY), 118, Joe Bravo
5. Honey Ryder (KY), 115, Garrett K. Gomez


Thoughts??

[Robert Fischer]

I can't make money on these races. 5 horses, 2 strong superstars who will be less 1.5-1 each :ThmbDown: It is almost a waste of a start from these great horses from my perspective.

English Channel has an advantage do to the fact that he need not respect anyone in front of him this race.

Strangely enough Fri Guy is the most important runner. He will have to decide if he wants to be a rabbit or try to earn the $42,000 that goes to fourth money (or if being a rabbit gives him best chance at 42k).

Dominguez will try to be near even terms with Velazquez entering the stretch, as will Garret Gomez.

Velazquez will need to establish a lead of a few lengths entering the stretch.

Will be interesting to see if Pletcher has Gomez use Honey Rider as a tactical weapon and attempt to box-in English Channel on the backstretch, and/or to impede EC from his late run.

[tomcalta]

Both surfaces have been really fast this season so far. I wouldnt be surprised if a long shot runs out for the lead and doesnt look back. A long shot in a 5-horse field may also be a long shot in itself...

...why would Pletcher want to impede his own horse from winning?

[Robert Fischer]

...why would Pletcher want to impede his own horse from winning?

Yea I had that fouled up. Better Talk Now.

Dominguez should be expected to to avoid that type of trouble.

[tomcalta]

well if the wagering is no good, maybe it will atleast be a good race

[cnollfan]

Both surfaces have been really fast this season so far. I wouldnt be surprised if a long shot runs out for the lead and doesnt look back.

That would be Fri Guy, would it not?

[point given]

I can't make money on these races. 5 horses, 2 strong superstars who will be less 1.5-1 each :ThmbDown: It is almost a waste of a start from these great horses from my perspective.


They are running in a G 1 worth $750,000. A waste ?

[Robert Fischer]

They are running in a G 1 worth $750,000. A waste ?

Right. From my perspective it is a waste. No value.

:ThmbUp: Not totally true, As a fan it's nice to see two of the best go at it. I am a fan of the both stars here and both jockeys, it will be a good one.

[o_crunk]

how is it possible that in a race with this much dough on the line, that even some medium GIII types not enter to get a piece of the purse? only 5 horses and the purse pays to sixth....heck, if pommes frites beats 3 of these, she gets a bigger share than if she wins the undercard overnight.

what is the rational of trainers / owners who don't bring horses when there's a big pile of cash on the line?

[gIracing]

how is it possible that in a race with this much dough on the line, that even some medium GIII types not enter to get a piece of the purse? only 5 horses and the purse pays to sixth....heck, if pommes frites beats 3 of these, she gets a bigger share than if she wins the undercard overnight.

what is the rational of trainers / owners who don't bring horses when there's a big pile of cash on the line?

the timing of the race is HORRIBLE

It's weeks after the CW at hollywood and not too long before the arlington million. Two Grade 1's. Every year there is a Grade 1 or Grade 2 that suffers becuase of the timing. Perfect Example was the Stephen Foster, The Suburban and the Gold Cup. there are only so many grade 1 calibur horses. I wouldn't even call the SF a grade 1 race this year. and you spread them over 3 races.

[tomcalta]

It is sad, if you look at the nominations for this race, sure i had my eye on English Channel and Better Talk Now, but there were some really well-raced horses nominated. see it here: http://monmouthpark.com/sharedimages/snpp/THE%20UNITED%20NATIONS%20STAKES.pdf

Unfortunately, this has been happening both here and in NY (Mother Goose, et al) and you would think a few more trainers would want to test their horses on this turf in prep for the BC. Alot of random horses have just been showing up, shipping in from CA and elsewhere. This one just didnt materialize... minus the two big boys.

Is this the racing secretary's fault? MONMOUTH ONLY HAS 2 G1, YOU WOULD HOPE WE COULD AT LEAST GET 2 GOOD RACES!!?!?!

[Wickel]

Horrible ride by Domingues on BTN. I don't understand these jocks that think they can pull a "Silky Sullivan" in a short-horse field. Garrett Gomez went through the same phase earlier this year. I felt BTN had a better-than-average shot with a decent ride. Guess not.

[Tom]

I'm no expert, but I was thinking, "What the heck is this guy wating for????? Someone aake him up!"

It was pretty obvious BTN had zero shot at any point in the race past the half. Very poor ride.

[ghostyapper]

It was a horrible ride by dominguez. He was choking the horse untill they got to the stretch. Arguably BTN's 2 best races (2004 bc, 2005 mow) was when he was allowed to explode around the turn.

[tomcalta]

BTN was flat. This is how he runs, he sits way off the pace and has a huge late surge. In the 1 1/4-mile Manhattan he was 6 or more lengths from EC the entire way and was only asked in the last 1/4 to pick it up. In the UN, he had to be a little more patient since it was a longer race (1 3/8). The horse was just flat. EC finished in a record time and it didnt look like BTN ever responded to the rider. Thought it was a boring race, but how about the filly, Honey Rider almost reeling him only beat by a length. All respect to EC, he is an amazing horse and all heart (he's no bigger than 15 hands!)

[ghostyapper]

BTN was flat. This is how he runs, he sits way off the pace and has a huge late surge. In the 1 1/4-mile Manhattan he was 6 or more lengths from EC the entire way and was only asked in the last 1/4 to pick it up. In the UN, he had to be a little more patient since it was a longer race (1 3/8). The horse was just flat. EC finished in a record time and it didnt look like BTN ever responded to the rider. Thought it was a boring race, but how about the filly, Honey Rider almost reeling him only beat by a length. All respect to EC, he is an amazing horse and all heart (he's no bigger than 15 hands!)

Were you watching the same race I was? BTN clearly wanted to go before the turn but was being choked by dominguez. Sometimes BTN waits till the stretch to kick into gear but when he wants to go earlier you have to let him. See the 2004 bc classic.

Once into the stretch he was not flat he was moving and accelerating very well. There are some races like the 2006 arlington million where he's flat in the stretch but yesterday was not one of those days.

BTN and the tin man are 2 amazing creatures. To continue to race at this high level at the ages of 8 and 9 is amazing to me.

[DanG]

Let’s keep in mind BTN is 8yo and still competing in Gr-1’s which is remarkable.

EC loves to hear his feet rattle and the current Monmouth billiard table is right up his alley. Small maneuverable animal loves the tight configuration and if he gets the same pavement in the fall he will fire big in the BC IMO.

Blaming Dominquez is really over the top IMO, but as always a completely subjective call. The rides Ramon has given this animal over the years are world class.

[Tom]

And this latest ride rhymes with world class! :eek:

[DanG]

And this latest ride rhymes with world class! :eek:
LOL… :D


Tough crowd Tom…tough crowd.

[tomcalta]

ok, watched the race again... cuz im at work and this is what i do at work (sad). He did have a late bid. You are right, the jock prolly should have been digging those heels into BTN's side while going into that turn especially since horses with alot of late speed have recently not had enough to catch the front-runners at MTH... he might have even won the race...
mah bad!

[DanG]

I guess I’m really in the minority on this one.

That is exactly the same timing that horse needs to run his best. He doesn’t have a ½ mile move in him, especially at his age. It didn’t help his cause that the pace was not wicked (the reason they used to enter rabbits) and he was smashed in the face by EC at the start.

If you watch his wins, that is his best move…middle of the turn and send hard. Perfect ride from a great grass rider up against a course / pace and younger foe that he was not going to beat.

I realize its boring too many to discuss past races and tactics, but for some strange reason I think its fun. :jump:

[Robert Fischer]

There was no quality in front of English Channel for the entire race. When a closer and a stalker of equal ability battle, the closer benefits from quality on the pace. When there is no quality on the pace such as the UN, the stalker nearly always has a perfect trip and is full of run at the finish. The only way the closer can compete is to be at near even terms at the top of the stretch.

Even if Dominguez had correctly achieved that position, he would have been all out for 2nd place in the UN. English Channel and Honey Ryder were both very fast that day.

One could argue that BTN's race allows for the possibility of carrying form forward to later goals, as opposed to changing the horse's running style for the sake of the U.N.
However, I think it is very possible that English Channel and Better Talk Now are not at equal levels of ability, and that if both have their way, one of them is simply more talented.

[DanG]

Even if Dominguez had correctly achieved that position, he would have been all out for 2nd place in the UN. English Channel and Honey Ryder were both very fast that day.

One could argue that BTN's race allows for the possibility of carrying form forward to later goals, as opposed to changing the horse's running style for the sake of the U.N.

Robert,

With all due respect…BTN is 8.5yo…

There is no changing running styles anymore for this man. Every time he makes the post it’s a blessing. :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

I thought the horse was trying to make a run and was needlessly restrained.
But I haven't seen a replay. First impressions.

[o_crunk]

btn was 9-10 lengths off the lead at the 3/8 pole. don't care if it's 20k claimers or G1....if anyone has had there eyes open watching the mth grass the last year and a half.....you'd know he'd have his work cut out for him in a major way...almost impossible. throw in the fact that it's a 5 horse field...and they could run that race 1,000 more times and he'd still have no shot.

maybe that's the horses style...and it's impossible for the jock to change....but as i watched this race progress on the back stretch....i knew he had 0 chance.

[Robert Fischer]

Robert,

With all due respect…BTN is 8.5yo…

There is no changing running styles anymore for this man. Every time he makes the post it’s a blessing. :ThmbUp:
Dan, not sure you and me are on the same page, but i happen to agree 100% with your statement.