DWYER

[the_fat_man]

This an anticipated REmatch of 3 horses that met up in the WOOD, with an INSIDE BIAS.


NoCount ---had the rail and controlled the pace/race --- he almost blew it when Cornelio drifted out with him in the late stretch but maintained his advantage when he steered him back inside. Interestingly 2nd choice early

Sightseeing --- NO SHOT and he's taking money:lol: Go figure.

AGS ---wide trip in the Wood --no shot given the setup ---chalk today, early

Helsinki --- probably TOO SLOW for these and he ducks in when he changes in the stretch. Bravo gave him a RETARTED ride when he broke his maiden. SOmething constrains me from pulling the trigger. Interesting to see how he performs in a race where he doesn't have to circle and actually runs straight the duration of the stretch.

[citygoat]

i se no biz running wire to wire

[chickenhead]

now how does cornoholio think he's gonna run down AGS from behind? That race was over almost before it started.

[the_fat_man]

There's a dude, a regular poster, on that OTHER forum, who thinks that NOCOUNT actually got the WORST of it in the WOOD because he was on the rail.:lol:

I was reading it last night and LMMFFAO

[46zilzal]

what other forum is that?

[cj]

now how does cornoholio think he's gonna run down AGS from behind? That race was over almost before it started.

He wasn't going to beat him running with him early either. There isn't much he could do when the better horse also has a tactical edge.

[chickenhead]

He wasn't going to beat him running with him early either. There isn't much he could do when the better horse also has a tactical edge.


I've always thought AGS superior. But if you happened to own NBLS, would your instructions have been to sit a few lengths off AGS? Of course not, there is a least some difference between little shot and absolutely no shot.

[cj]

I've always thought AGS superior. But if you happened to own NBLS, would your instructions have been to sit a few lengths off AGS? Of course not, there is a least some difference between little shot and absolutely no shot.

It depends. If I really wanted to win at all costs with the possibility of running last, I'd say gun him. If I wanted to get the best result, I'd let him go and collect 2nd purse.

[chickenhead]

fair point...

[ghostyapper]

Wow what a performance by saturday. I really think he is on the top level with curlin, street sense, and hard spun.

Hope we get to see all these for the breeders cup.

[john del riccio]

Wow what a performance by saturday. I really think he is on the top level with curlin, street sense, and hard spun.

Hope we get to see all these for the breeders cup.

He is the best 3yo in the country is you base it off the DWYER.

John

[Robert Fischer]

It was a big effort by AGS. While he didn't face any adversity in terms of pace or trip, he did run extremely sharp. He showed that he is in fact a legitimate quality horse. Running the last 4.5 furlongs in a brilliant 55.44 ft/second. There is the breeders cup mile and there is also that new Mile-70yards race this year in the BC. Very sharp effort 7-4.


This was Nobiz's best race in terms of style since his 2yo Remsen effort at 9 furlongs. Nobiz seemed to take a few strides to focus on the task out of the gate. He ran a much more stylish race although that meant conceding an advantage to AGS should that one be in top form. There have been so many adjustments with this horse, yet Nobiz's running style in the Dwyer is exactly the form that will need to be carried forward to the 9 and especially 10 furlong classic races. 1:41.41 is really a very good time for horse who is pointed for the 10 furlong races. Nobiz came home the last 4.5 furlongs with a velocity of 54.93 ft/s which is graded stakes older horse level. I hope they don't throw blinkers back on or start forcing him on the pace in these smaller races.


Sightseeing was very sharp for this race. He was extremely fit and was a physical specimen. Any doubts that Sightseeing could "tighten up" to run at the 8.5 furlong distance were erased in the post parade. Edgar Prado made an unfortunate decision (or lost control of the horse) on the backstretch. Sightseeing was making effortless headway, when Prado appeared to misjudge an opening between the early pace setter and Any Given Saturday. Gomez closed the opening and Sightseeing lost all momentum, effectively ending all probability for entering the stretch in winning position and contending for second, but did finish the race with a solid effort. Not the greatest race to carry form forward from, but showed that he is a quality animal and competitive with this group.

[DanG]

He is the best 3yo in the country is you base it off the DWYER.

John
John;

With all due respect I don’t think he’s earned that title yet.

Having said that, I bet AGS in the Derby (and singled him in the Dwyer) and think very highly of the horse. It turns out he bruised his foot in the Derby and that certainly didn’t help his cause.

I’ve seen too many quality animals run the race of their life with Belmont’s one turn configuration. Regardless of his number (and he was very impressive, don’t get me wrong) in the colt division Curlin and Street Sense have just shown more adaptability to me.

I honestly believe Street Sense at this point is actually under-rated. I view him as the division leader and think he has a dimension no other 3yo has at this point.

Time will tell, but this is a very good thing that AGS is healthy and moving forward. With a void in the handicap division we need all the 3yo heavy-heads we can get! :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

At this point, I have to agree SS is the division leader on the basis of putting two big ones back to back ( almost) with Curlin second.

[DanG]

BTW:

First time front bandages for “No Biz” at this point in his life does not instill great confidence going forward...

Please excuse the side bar here…

PS: Congrats Tom on Finger Lakes great Funny Cide 4th celebration. That was a throw back race when a former Derby champ gets on the train and takes his show to the people.

Only positives come from that. :ThmbUp:

[tomcalta]

He's obviously not the best 3YO in the country... He is certainly competitive for that title. I dont want to say that since he raced bad in the Derby he is out, because we have seen in past years (ie. afleet alex, point given) that the derby doesnt always produce that honor.

I would like to see this horse compete against street sense in the jim dandy or maybe the haskell. Remember his neck and neck race with SS in the the Tampa Bay Derby... i'd like to see a rematch.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/derby_prep_videos.asp

[john del riccio]

My comment was that "if you base it on the Dwyer, he is the best 3yo in the country". that is because he earned the best rating of any 3yo to date.

AND yes, 1 turn at BEL is not 2 turns at SAR but simply based on a raw variant rating earned in the Dwyer, he is the best 3yo as for today.

I would ove to see him, Street Sese, Curlin, and Hard Spun get it on but I doubt
we will see that.

John

[DanG]

My comment was that "if you base it on the Dwyer, he is the best 3yo in the country". that is because he earned the best rating of any 3yo to date.

AND yes, 1 turn at BEL is not 2 turns at SAR but simply based on a raw variant rating earned in the Dwyer, he is the best 3yo as for today.

I would ove to see him, Street Sese, Curlin, and Hard Spun get it on but I doubt
we will see that. John
Understood John;

Agreed; you would need a shotgun to get them all in the same gate pre-BC. ;)

[46zilzal]

Three year olds are like developing teenagers: as the Summer continues they get stronger. Holy Bull and Chief's Crown couldn't get the trip at 10 furlongs in May but they could in August.

Improving sophomores..

[classhandicapper]

John;

Having said that, I bet AGS in the Derby (and singled him in the Dwyer) and think very highly of the horse. It turns out he bruised his foot in the Derby and that certainly didn’t help his cause.



I've been a big fan of AGS since last year.

He was better than Street Sense when they met the first time (though that was SS's first start of the year) and he was at least as good (probably better) than No Biz in the Wood.

I also played him in the Derby despite the outside post. The price was fairly attractive at the Exchange.

I'm always happy when a horse I am impressed with comes back to run the way I expected, even if it's later in the year and not on the day I bet them.

The race was fast, but I don't think I'd put him ahead of the leaders of the division off a pretty easy trip against the second string.

[the_fat_man]

I liked this guy a bit as well. Not as much as Curlin or SS but probably better than some of the rest. I remarked on a number of occasions how he got the WORST of it in the WOOD and I'm certainly on record as being one of NoCOUNTS earliest detractors.

So I think he's better than NoCOunt and I also think that Sightseeing has no shot BUT I didn't particularly get a rise out of the race.

8:5 and a cold $11 exacta don't quite do it for me these days. The reward is meager, to say the least, for having a strong, and correct, opinion.

And why would I be impressed about AGS' effort when it's expected that he dusts this field?

The pretty girls are away on vacation and we're fawning over the fat chicks.

Let's 'concede' the Haskel to this guy (assuming the big boys pass)

[classhandicapper]

I don't think No Biz is such a bad horse. The thing about him was that his first couple of races out of the box were reasonably impressive. So naturally, he got hyped beyond what he had shown to that point. But I don't think it was at all unrealistic to assume he was going to develop into a really nice horse this spring even if the hype was overdone. The disappointing part was that he didn't develop much at all this spring. More often than not a well bred lightly raced horse trained by a very competent guy will develop unless there are physical issues.

It looks to me like he finally moved forward a bit in the Dwyer. So at least they have him going in the right direction.

IMO, the difference between him and AGS is less than it looks at this point based on that result. He's not among the leaders of the division, but if he wasn't so hyped and overbet early on, people wouldn't be so critical of him now.

[46zilzal]

I

He was better than Street Sense when they met the first time (though that was SS's first start of the year) and he was at least as good (probably better) than No Biz in the Wood.

If he was so much better, then his showings were, what, fixed?

He showed the classical "going off form" in his last three races: total energy falling off and % median climbing....The rest did him well.

[classhandicapper]

If he was so much better, then his showings were, what, fixed?

He showed the classical "going off form" in his last three races: total energy falling off and % median climbing....The rest did him well.

The day he lost to Street Sense he lost a lot ground but was coming again late. He was better than SS that day (who saved every inch), but like I said, he had a conditioning edge because it was SS's first start of the year.

In the Wood, he again lost a lot of ground and made a nice move into the pace while wide, before weakening. Some people have argued the inside was the best part of the track that day. If it was, that makes AGS's effort look even better.

In the Derby, he had an outside post, lost a lot of ground, again made a nice move into a lively pace but dropped out of it because of the combination of the trip and the fact that some of the other horses moved forward sharply and he didn't. They were just better.

I"m not going to be critical of your figures, but I never view any figures in a vacuum.

Pletcher tends to do well when he freshens his horses. In this case, I think it's turning out to have been a good move because the horse is developing at the exactly correct time if you want to win important races later in the year. A few of his main competitors may have depleted their batteries in the Triple Crown chase. We'll see.

[Robert Fischer]

It will be good to get a win over the Monmouth track if you have the BC on your list of goals. AGS may be best suited to the BCmile.

[46zilzal]

what a horse does, pace wise, overwhelms trip notes, especially when they reproduce a trend that says "I need a rest!"

[cj]

I look at the numbers and trips. The horse ran as well in the Derby as he did in both the Wood and Tampa race, in my opinion. There was no decline if you consider all the factors involved.

[DanG]

what a horse does, pace wise, overwhelms trip notes, especially when they reproduce a trend that says "I need a rest!"
BTW: AGS bruised his hoof in the Derby.

Please plug that into your energy readouts 46…