Nobody Wants to Win!

[Pell Mell]

I thought for awhile that I didn't understand what is taking place on this website but I think I've figured it out. Initially I thought it was about picking winners but now I don't think that's the case at all. It seems to me that this is a place to discuss different theories that have, over time, been proven to be worthless in the quest to make money from horse racing. All these theories that involve data bases, variants, speed and pace ratings, software programs, etc. may give one a general idea as to who might be the fastest animal in a race but in the end it's a guessing game and nobody makes a living guessing even though it may be an educated guess.

It seems that the prevailing MO here is to get the contenders in a race and look for "Value", which for some may be as low as 6/5 while others may demand more. So, because this is a random act in itself, the strategy looks to be that a certain % of these value plays will win at a certain % that a positive ROI will ensue. What is a positive ROI, 5-10%? By using this strategy you are still performing a random act which is the same as a guessing game. After 60yrs playing horses if I couldn't make a min. of 100% profit I would go and get a real job.

There are a lot of very smart people here that could be very rich if they spent as much time at a profession as they do at handicapping. I once knew a guy who said,"I don't got no ed-u-ma-cation, but I got a lot of goddamn money".

As an example of what I mean; I started a thread concerning track variants which I discarded many yrs. ago as a lesson in futility and this thread got 3,716 views and 115 replies. I started another thread giving an idea as to how to actually pick winners and it got 480 views and 1 reply. Enough said!

PS- In no way do I intend to demean or insult anyone but this is just my take as to why there are so many losers out there.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I thought for awhile that I didn't understand what is taking place on this website but I think I've figured it out. Initially I thought it was about picking winners but now I don't think that's the case at all. It seems to me that this is a place to discuss different theories that have, over time, been proven to be worthless in the quest to make money from horse racing. All these theories that involve data bases, variants, speed and pace ratings, software programs, etc. may give one a general idea as to who might be the fastest animal in a race but in the end it's a guessing game and nobody makes a living guessing even though it may be an educated guess.

It seems that the prevailing MO here is to get the contenders in a race and look for "Value", which for some may be as low as 6/5 while others may demand more. So, because this is a random act in itself, the strategy looks to be that a certain % of these value plays will win at a certain % that a positive ROI will ensue. What is a positive ROI, 5-10%? By using this strategy you are still performing a random act which is the same as a guessing game. After 60yrs playing horses if I couldn't make a min. of 100% profit I would go and get a real job.

There are a lot of very smart people here that could be very rich if they spent as much time at a profession as they do at handicapping. I once knew a guy who said,"I don't got no ed-u-ma-cation, but I got a lot of goddamn money".

As an example of what I mean; I started a thread concerning track variants which I discarded many yrs. ago as a lesson in futility and this thread got 3,716 views and 115 replies. I started another thread giving an idea as to how to actually pick winners and it got 480 views and 1 reply. Enough said!

PS- In no way do I intend to demean or insult anyone but this is just my take as to why there are so many losers out there.
Lucky for you you do not have to back up THAT random guess with even a $2 bet!LOL!!

[Overlay]

It seems that the prevailing MO here is to get the contenders in a race and look for "Value", which for some may be as low as 6/5 while others may demand more. So, because this is a random act in itself, the strategy looks to be that a certain % of these value plays will win at a certain % that a positive ROI will ensue.

"Random act"? Maybe it is, if you're relying on subjective opinion. But racing has a sufficient number of statistically documented performance patterns and characteristics that repeat themselves over time (and have for years) that it's possible to base the assessment of a horse's likelihood of winning and the degree of value its odds are offering on more than just intuition or guess.

[PIC6SIX]

Pell Mell, I agree with your analysis. The game is alot like playing roulette even when one does all the analysis with trainers, speed, pace and other methods of handicapping. I think there are few players out there with the determination, self discipline, hcp methods, emotions and common sense judgement to beat this game on a daily/weekly basis as a "Horse Grinder". One thing that hurts many players, as I see it, is they all like the action and do not have the common sense to quite when ahead for the day. I know of one player that has had two signers in one day and went home broke.

[sammy the sage]

shoot...all we've seen from you is REDBOARD...pat yourself on the back...

post a few winner's BEFORE the race...and perhap's a few of us might do the same!

[Pell Mell]

shoot...all we've seen from you is REDBOARD...pat yourself on the back...

post a few winner's BEFORE the race...and perhap's a few of us might do the same!

Show me! Also show me where you ever posted a winner!:p

[judd]

KEEP THOSE GREAT PICKS COMING
PEOPLE FOLLOW (AT LEAST I DO)
JUST SOME GUYS DONT LIKE TO REPLY

[Pace Cap'n]

shoot...all we've seen from you is REDBOARD...pat yourself on the back...

post a few winner's BEFORE the race...and perhap's a few of us might do the same!

The $46 horse was posted in advance.

[Light]

It seems to me that this is a place to discuss different theories that have, over time, been proven to be worthless in the quest to make money from horse racing.

Thats only part of what I see here. It is also an exchange of ideas on what does work(generally speaking). I dont think good handicappers will reveal details of what really works for them. I cant blame them cause this is a little like Poker,you dont reveal your hand. If everyone did indeed reveal their hand,this forum would jump to a whole new level. Of course,their ROI would pay the price.

[boomman]

Pell Mell, I agree with your analysis. The game is alot like playing roulette even when one does all the analysis with trainers, speed, pace and other methods of handicapping. I think there are few players out there with the determination, self discipline, hcp methods, emotions and common sense judgement to beat this game on a daily/weekly basis as a "Horse Grinder". One thing that hurts many players, as I see it, is they all like the action and do not have the common sense to quite when ahead for the day. I know of one player that has had two signers in one day and went home broke.

Pic6: Although I haven't really taken the time to see how many people respond to threads and in what way, I do agree that many people crave action and will "create" any betting situation they can, and it's not uncommon for certain guys to make a score and give it all back before they leave the track. But there certainly are players (like myself) who use common sense, judgment and most importantly discipline and outwork and out prepare their "parimutuel opponents" on a daily basis to consistently make a profit wagering on horses. I don't say this to toot my own horn or anyone else's just to re-emphasize the fact that not all of the posters on here fall into pell mell's theory............Boomer

[Pell Mell]

Pic6: Although I haven't really taken the time to see how many people respond to threads and in what way, I do agree that many people crave action and will "create" any betting situation they can, and it's not uncommon for certain guys to make a score and give it all back before they leave the track. But there certainly are players (like myself) who use common sense, judgment and most importantly discipline and outwork and out prepare their "parimutuel opponents" on a daily basis to consistently make a profit wagering on horses. I don't say this to toot my own horn or anyone else's just to re-emphasize the fact that not all of the posters on here fall into pell mell's theory............Boomer

Sorry Boomer, I didn't say all. What I was relating is the amount of response to certain types of posts, or at least, that was my intent.

[boomman]

Sorry Boomer, I didn't say all. What I was relating is the amount of response to certain types of posts, or at least, that was my intent.

Pell: Clarification so noted!:)

Thanks, Boomer

[Pell Mell]

Thats only part of what I see here. It is also an exchange of ideas on what does work(generally speaking). I dont think good handicappers will reveal details of what really works for them. I cant blame them cause this is a little like Poker,you dont reveal your hand. If everyone did indeed reveal their hand,this forum would jump to a whole new level. Of course,their ROI would pay the price.

My sentiments exactly! I could completely reveal my method which would then make it worthless. I have had many requests, especially at another website, to teach newbies how to handicap. All I can do is point out what I feel is relevant but I can't disclose exactly how to use these factors. As a matter of fact, when I post picks I usually throw a few out there that I'm not playing because an astute capper would soon grasp what I'm doing while at the same time I don't think many would take a shot on these. I quit posting picks some time back because I noticed, believe it or not, that too many were getting bet down. Since not posting my prices have gone back up and that's another reason I don't post picks everyday.

[Pell Mell]

The $46 horse was posted in advance.

As was the horse in the 1st at DEL. I erred on the post time and had trouble with the website loading but it was still posted 4 min. before the race went off.

[The Judge]

I don't know any handicapper that has been at the game awhile that doesn't use value in determining what horse to bet. We all have a point at which we will say the odds on this horse is too low to make a bet.

We may not make a odds line and write it down ala Mark Cramer or Barry Meadow but we have one in our minds.

This is because we have all seen 3/5 shots who deserve to be 3/5 finish off the board. We have seen winners jump shadows and lose at the wire, we have seen jockeys fall off, we have seen jockeys take deadly closers to the lead and front runners break last.

Pell Mell how many ways are there to win at the track? Can you bet to win or must you bet pick 6's, or tri's? What's the lowest odds you will take on a horse like Invisor, or Ghostzapper? Do you play madiens, or first time horses on the turf, do you play the Breeders Cup with all horses from all over the world and from almost every track in the U.S showing up? Do you play Del Mar and Saratoga? Do you have fun at the track?

[Greyfox]

As an example of what I mean; I started a thread concerning track variants which I discarded many yrs. ago as a lesson in futility and this thread got 3,716 views and 115 replies. I started another thread giving an idea as to how to actually pick winners and it got 480 views and 1 reply. Enough said!

.

Your post reads like a pout.
So you posted a thread on how to pick winners and got 1 reply. Ouch.
Ever thought that the reason that you only got 1 reply, wasn't due to
not wanting to pick winners? Maybe there was something inherent in the post that wasn't worth responding to? Pout on. Pout on.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I thought for awhile that I didn't understand what is taking place on this website but I think I've figured it out. Initially I thought it was about picking winners but now I don't think that's the case at all.

PS- In no way do I intend to demean or insult anyone but this is just my take as to why there are so many losers out there.Interesting perspective.

Just what are the numbers bantered about horseplayers? 10% actually show a profit?.....5% make a living at it? It is a tough game, with so many variables, but I think of the contributors here, those numbers might be slightly enhanced.

This is a forum, an exchange of perspectives, in a game with no absolutes. There are so many ways to look at this game, and that is part of the fascination. There is no way that I could just bet class droppers, but you have found your niche, something the most ardent handicapper can look for his entire life and never find.

You could give me your Piks, guaranteeing me a 100% ROI, and all I would have to do is pay you 10%. GUARANTEED NET 90% ROI!!!! When you present this TREMENDOUS offer to me, I would have to respectfully decline.

Why? Because I would rather grind out my meager 17.2% ROI over the last 5 years using my own wiles. There are those that just want to live in the mansion.... and there are those that just want to build their own cabin.

It is the process, the ability to solve the puzzle using your own acumen that gives the game appeal, and to a decreasing number I might add. I might be a dinosaur in that respect.

The game appeals from so many perspectives. I find this board an interesting mix of those perspectives.

[cj]

I posted yesterday about this in a way. I mentioned in the Fabulous Strike thread that I thought there was a horse that ran at Churchill that week that ran at least as good, and maybe better, than Fabulous Strike did.

You would think one person might at least inquire as to which horse it was. Since noone did, I'm certainly not going to come back and post that the horse was entered at PrM last week, and the favorite was the distant runner up to FS. Benny the Bull, the horse I was talking about, won that race easily and paid $10.

I used to get into making selections here, and did very well as anyone can find if they take the time to search. However, why would I continue to do that? I love talking about the game, but I've become a very serious bettor these last few years. The days of "I'm betting this horse" are over. If someone asks, I'll always give an opinion if I have one, but I'm not volunteering much anymore. It just doesn't make sense.

Kind of reminds me of the "teach a man to fish" theory.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I quit posting picks some time back because I noticed, believe it or not, that too many were getting bet down. Since not posting my prices have gone back up and that's another reason I don't post picks everyday.So, what track were you posting for? Arapahoe Park? Not to disparage your perspective, but I would be very curious to find out where you were posting your picks that would have that type of impact on the tote.

Please forgive me, as I may be talking out of school, but that is one healthy ego you possess. It very well may be deserved though, as I have no idea who you are, but from where I sit, you must do VERY well in handicapping tournaments.

Your approach appears to have what tournament champions are made of.

Continued success, sir.

[DanG]

Interesting perspective.

Just what are the numbers bantered about horseplayers? 10% actually show a profit?.....5% make a living at it? It is a tough game, with so many variables, but I think of the contributors here, those numbers might be slightly enhanced.

This is a forum, an exchange of perspectives, in a game with no absolutes. There are so many ways to look at this game, and that is part of the fascination. There is no way that I could just bet class droppers, but you have found your niche, something the most ardent handicapper can look for his entire life and never find.

You could give me your Piks, guaranteeing me a 100% ROI, and all I would have to do is pay you 10%. GUARANTEED NET 90% ROI!!!! When you present this TREMENDOUS offer to me, I would have to respectfully decline.

Why? Because I would rather grind out my meager 17.2% ROI over the last 5 years using my own wiles. There are those that just want to live in the mansion.... and there are those that just want to build their own cabin.

It is the process, the ability to solve the puzzle using your own acumen that gives the game appeal, and to a decreasing number I might add. I might be a dinosaur in that respect.

The game appeals from so many perspectives. I find this board an interesting mix of those perspectives.
To coin a popular commercial…

“Brilliant Post IMO”


Pell Mell; I have nothing but respect for your experience and willingness to share. I would love to talk with you one on one and pick you brain as it were. Your confident in your approach and have found what works for you. Each year I’m on the planet it becomes clearer to me that’s the key to being successful at anything and especially gambling.

Last year was my personal best in the last 13 years. If someone asked “how did you do it and can you teach me” I wouldn’t know where to start to be honest. It’s such a combination of, experience, feel, good information, hard work, concentration etc…not to mention being a little obsessive and being willing to work long hours.

I love Hajck’s point of if someone gave him a method that guaranteed a certain level a profit he would decline and continue with his own methods. This is at the core of the successful player in my experience.

If I could give one piece of advice to someone looking to improve their game, it would be…Stop trying to apply so many handicapping disciplines at once and focus on you strength. If you got to the majors by being a good fastball hitter, don’t spend all you time in the batting cage hitting the deuce. When you get your fastball and it splits the plate you must be ready to unload on it and not foul it back.

Every single person reading this has strength. 1st order of business is to find out what it is and please be sure you enjoy exploiting it. The hours and challenge of showing a profit demand you must love it or you won’t apply yourself enough to make a dent.

Happy 4th to all and best of luck today.



BTW: CJ has a very valid point IMHO. The “Teach a man to fish” line is excellent. I don’t play straight win bets very often, but my records show I lose on average 81% of them. In order for everyone to “benefit” I would have to post all of them over a several year period and just as the bell rings. Just not practical, but I do enjoy threads that discuss selections, especially those in major races where the pools are enormous.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I have posted several of my methods over the years, but I think only 1 person tried any of them even on paper. I think most may want ideas but to handicap for themselves.
I rarely do public handicapping nowadays but my record from day 1 was on the website available to the public; have and still do maintain a + ROI overall.

[Edward DeVere]

After 60yrs playing horses if I couldn't make a min. of 100% profit I would go and get a real job.


Congratulations, sir. 100% profit means you are the greatest handicapper of all time, the smartest person who has ever lived, and richer than Croesus, to boot.

i suppose you're good-looking, too.

[sammy the sage]

"I quit posting picks some time back because I noticed, believe it or not, that too many were getting bet down. Since not posting my prices have gone back up and that's another reason I don't post picks everyday."

Hmmm....and this goes w/the Author's original post...HOW SO? :confused:

I will apologize since a previous poster did say you posted in advance...although I could not find it/still can't in this forum....PROBABLY LOOKED RIGHT AT IT! :lol:

[Pell Mell]

So, what track were you posting for? Arapahoe Park? Not to disparage your perspective, but I would be very curious to find out where you were posting your picks that would have that type of impact on the tote.

Please forgive me, as I may be talking out of school, but that is one healthy ego you possess. It very well may be deserved though, as I have no idea who you are, but from where I sit, you must do VERY well in handicapping tournaments.

Your approach appears to have what tournament champions are made of.

Continued success, sir.

Hajck, I like your attitude, seriously. As to my ego, there's nothing beats confidence no matter what you do, even courting women.

A question for you; what has making money from playing horses have to do with handicapping tournaments? The dumbest player in the world can and I think probably has won a tournament. Winning a tournament is a matter of being luckier at that particular time then the other players.

Actually I'm a lousy handicapper. Once I get past my picks, which are very selective, I have no idea who's going to get in the money and in P3, 4, or 6s I have no clue as to the races other than my play.

I remember a guy getting stopped and arrested on the NJ Turnpike many yrs. ago. The guy had over a hundred grand worth of winning tickets from Yonkers in his glove box. For some reason or other he went before a judge who asked him if he had a magic formula and he replied that it was just a matter of judgement. That's all I do is make a judgement as to whether or not a horse has an edge.:bang:

[Pell Mell]

Interesting perspective.

Just what are the numbers bantered about horseplayers? 10% actually show a profit?.....5% make a living at it? It is a tough game, with so many variables, but I think of the contributors here, those numbers might be slightly enhanced.

This is a forum, an exchange of perspectives, in a game with no absolutes. There are so many ways to look at this game, and that is part of the fascination. There is no way that I could just bet class droppers, but you have found your niche, something the most ardent handicapper can look for his entire life and never find.

You could give me your Piks, guaranteeing me a 100% ROI, and all I would have to do is pay you 10%. GUARANTEED NET 90% ROI!!!! When you present this TREMENDOUS offer to me, I would have to respectfully decline.

Why? Because I would rather grind out my meager 17.2% ROI over the last 5 years using my own wiles. There are those that just want to live in the mansion.... and there are those that just want to build their own cabin.

It is the process, the ability to solve the puzzle using your own acumen that gives the game appeal, and to a decreasing number I might add. I might be a dinosaur in that respect.

The game appeals from so many perspectives. I find this board an interesting mix of those perspectives.

Hajck, another post I like. My best friend, and one of the few left alive, would not bet a horse that God told him was going to win. He has never made a score for more than a few hundred bucks. He lives on SS and is always broke but he would rather try to beat me at the track than make money. If I tell him I have a horse I really like he will try to beat it even though he my actually like it himself. Such is human nature.

I'll ask you another question; just what tools does a trainer have to satisfy an owner with a win?:confused:

[Pell Mell]

Your post reads like a pout.
So you posted a thread on how to pick winners and got 1 reply. Ouch.
Ever thought that the reason that you only got 1 reply, wasn't due to
not wanting to pick winners? Maybe there was something inherent in the post that wasn't worth responding to? Pout on. Pout on.

I'm too goddamn old to pout. My point is that playing a game and making money are two different things. It seems to me that most would just rather play the game.

[Pell Mell]

I posted yesterday about this in a way. I mentioned in the Fabulous Strike thread that I thought there was a horse that ran at Churchill that week that ran at least as good, and maybe better, than Fabulous Strike did.

You would think one person might at least inquire as to which horse it was. Since noone did, I'm certainly not going to come back and post that the horse was entered at PrM last week, and the favorite was the distant runner up to FS. Benny the Bull, the horse I was talking about, won that race easily and paid $10.

I used to get into making selections here, and did very well as anyone can find if they take the time to search. However, why would I continue to do that? I love talking about the game, but I've become a very serious bettor these last few years. The days of "I'm betting this horse" are over. If someone asks, I'll always give an opinion if I have one, but I'm not volunteering much anymore. It just doesn't make sense.

Kind of reminds me of the "teach a man to fish" theory.

CJ, Your advice is well taken and I think that in the future I shall follow it.;)

[Pell Mell]

Congratulations, sir. 100% profit means you are the greatest handicapper of all time, the smartest person who has ever lived, and richer than Croesus, to boot.

i suppose you're good-looking, too.

Doesn't deserve an answer:(

[Greyfox]

All I can do is point out what I feel is relevant but I can't disclose exactly how to use these factors. As a matter of fact, when I post picks I usually throw a few out there that I'm not playing because an astute capper would soon grasp what I'm doing while at the same time I don't think many would take a shot on these.


If you're too old to pout, please don't pout when I say that the above emboldened comments border on twisted thinking.
Effectively, you've told us here that you're a liar. That is basically what you've said,
not us.
Throwing out a few that you aren't playing so people won't grasp on to what you are doing makes all of your further posts here unbelievable.

[Tom]

Doesn't deserve an answer:(

So you gave him one anyway? :lol:

[Pell Mell]

I don't know any handicapper that has been at the game awhile that doesn't use value in determining what horse to bet. We all have a point at which we will say the odds on this horse is too low to make a bet.

We may not make a odds line and write it down ala Mark Cramer or Barry Meadow but we have one in our minds.

This is because we have all seen 3/5 shots who deserve to be 3/5 finish off the board. We have seen winners jump shadows and lose at the wire, we have seen jockeys fall off, we have seen jockeys take deadly closers to the lead and front runners break last.

Pell Mell how many ways are there to win at the track? Can you bet to win or must you bet pick 6's, or tri's? What's the lowest odds you will take on a horse like Invisor, or Ghostzapper? Do you play madiens, or first time horses on the turf, do you play the Breeders Cup with all horses from all over the world and from almost every track in the U.S showing up? Do you play Del Mar and Saratoga? Do you have fun at the track?

I don't play 2yr olds, stakes races, (I do play stuff like the TC for fun), I don't play the turf at all, I rarely play the major tracks like NY and CA. I mostly play claimers from 10-15 grand and down.

The odds I will take depends on the race and how strong I feel about the horse. In a short field I may be happy with 3/1 but normally I'm looking for horses that are upwards of 8/1 and love when my horse is 50/1. My biggest straight price was in 2001 when I had my best bet win at CT and pay $165. to win. I have made some good scores going deep on supers but overall the steadiest income is from w/p betting.

I used to have a good time at the track going to the walking ring and liked the banter with other players. I also met a lot of nice guys at the track and became good friends with some. I sometimes miss the nice, really smoke filled rooms and all the yelling and cussing. You know, sort of like the Sat. night poker game with your friends. Now, after all those years, its like watching old re-runs on TV. Most of the time, if I make a bet, I bet early and forget about it. I would rather go fishing or spend time with my lovely wife or spend time with my dogs. Life is getting short.:(

[Hajck Hillstrom]

A question for you; what has making money from playing horses have to do with handicapping tournaments? The dumbest player in the world can and I think probably has won a tournament. Winning a tournament is a matter of being luckier at that particular time then the other players.
My point was this....

You are a spot player that hits often with 20-1 shots. In a tournament format, this type of handicapper is in his wheelhouse. You won't win them all, but you should do very well in half of them, and probably win over 10% with that 100% ROI.

No exotics, just WIN (and/or PLACE) wagers.

If you don't play in tournaments, maybe you should check out the format! Think about it.... Your epitaph could read:

Pell Mell
Eclipse Award Winner :rolleyes:

[DanG]

Effectively, you've told us here that you're a liar. That is basically what you've said,
not us.
There’s the holiday spirit! :ThmbDown::ThmbDown::ThmbDown:

[Dave Schwartz]

I thought for awhile that I didn't understand what is taking place on this website but I think I've figured it out. Initially I thought it was about picking winners but now I don't think that's the case at all. It seems to me that this is a place to discuss different theories that have, over time, been proven to be worthless in the quest to make money from horse racing. All these theories that involve data bases, variants, speed and pace ratings, software programs, etc. may give one a general idea as to who might be the fastest animal in a race but in the end it's a guessing game and nobody makes a living guessing even though it may be an educated guess.

What, sir, is your purpose for posting here?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Kind of reminds me of the "teach a man to fish" theory.
When applying for a job recently, I was asked what I might bring to the table.

My answer:

"If I give a new fan a winner..... he will cash a ticket. If I teach a new fan how to select a winner..... he will cash tickets for the rest of his life."

When leaving the facility, I had to cross a stream. I wasn't sure if I should part the water and pass through, or simply walk across the water..... so I swam through it instead. No point in showing off.....

[Pell Mell]

What, sir, is your purpose for posting here?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Certainly not to hustle books or ratings.:rolleyes:

[Dave Schwartz]

now, now... it was a valid question.

As I see it, you have come in and announced that nothing anybody does here is going to help them to win. Except what you do, of course. And you are not willing to share how that works.

So, again, I ask, "What is your purpose?"

[sammy the sage]

ah...mr. Schwartz....you've spoiled all the fun...by being succinct/direct/to the point! :D

[kenwoodallpromos]

What, sir, is your purpose for posting here?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz
____________
According to his posts he is here to brag about making 100% profit betting horses from win to super, from 3/1 to 50/1 "depending on strong I feel"
And telling everyone else they cannot make good money at their betting but do not wnat to (or like me, can't figure out) howw to folow his "advice", and then throw in a bunch of BS advice and picks.
He sounds to me like a nice, warm, gentle breeze on your back- blow through with hot air, get noticed, affect nothing and not be remembered long.

[Greyfox]

I know that I've been critical of Pell Mell here.
However, in fairness to him, he has another simultaneous post going at

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=37523

entitled 4 Questions.... In that thread, I think that his contributions are worlds apart from what he's shown us in this one. There is some food for thought there.

[Good4Now]

the 'Cat Houses' had a piano.

Wasn't that reason enough to want to learn to play the piano?

We live in a truly dynamic world, and yet our hard wired systems make it very difficult for us to change what become habits.

Prunes are supposed to be one of the healthiest fruits we can eat, and we all should eat more fruit.
Go ahead TRY and eat a prune a day.

Most of us come here to try to learn from others and share what we have learned. This is the best forum I have found for that. Thank you to all who have shared!

I gotta go eat a prune....

[Donnie]

Greyfox-
I think there was food for thought in this thread....but it oh so quickly turned into one of those "Pace Advantage Lynchings".

Follow along, lets look at his original post:

I thought for awhile that I didn't understand what is taking place on this website but I think I've figured it out. Initially I thought it was about picking winners but now I don't think that's the case at all. It seems to me that this is a place to discuss different theories that have, over time, been proven to be worthless in the quest to make money from horse racing. All these theories that involve data bases, variants, speed and pace ratings, software programs, etc. may give one a general idea as to who might be the fastest animal in a race but in the end it's a guessing game and nobody makes a living guessing even though it may be an educated guess.
I, personally, zeroed in on that last sentence. In reality, doesn't this game come down to an educated guess, just before we put our money down? No one on this earth can say with 100% certainty that any event will happen, especially in horseracing. The variables in every race are different. To me EVERY race is unique. I don't believe I have ever bet on a "sure thing". There is no such event! And to track further up into that post....haven't the discussions on this board borne out the fact that much of what some horseplayers hold near and dear, when put to empirical testing, shows to be aberrations? Many horseplayers are part-timers. Pyschlogically, we remember the good hits, and our minds shelve the bad losses. So in many a players' mind, they are "winners".

It seems that the prevailing MO here is to get the contenders in a race and look for "Value", which for some may be as low as 6/5 while others may demand more. So, because this is a random act in itself, the strategy looks to be that a certain % of these value plays will win at a certain % that a positive ROI will ensue. What is a positive ROI, 5-10%? By using this strategy you are still performing a random act which is the same as a guessing game. After 60yrs playing horses if I couldn't make a min. of 100% profit I would go and get a real job.
I think Pell Mell is spot-on in his first line here. My observations of the discussions on this board is that many look for that winning roi%. Using databases to find it may not be the way to get it done. (personally, I use a database myself, but only to "crunch" my numbers and spit out daily reports) So Joe Schmoe has tracked every race for the past 2 years in his database. He finds an angle that is showing 5% profit. "Eureka!" he exclaims. He now dreams of wealth and riches. Isn't this what he has read on the "boards"? Next weekend his daughter gets married and he will miss 16 plays that he should be playing. 2 months from now he takes a one week vacation and his wife will not allow him to take the laptop along! "No big deal" he figures. I'll hit it hard when I get home. Ok. Let's hold Joe's performance up to his data test. We're not even close anymore and only 3 months have ellapsed. Guessing game? You bet! If your performance cannot match the testing parameters, you're fooling yourself. (Greyfox--this is NOT directed personally at you, or anyone else on this board. All "you"s are general.) The line about 100% profit....I don't know. Can spot players make that? I post picks regularly over on the HTR board. (I don't play all I pick, and usually state such. Sometimes we post for fun.) Playing the ponies for 60 years puts Pell Mell beyond my age. I think he may have a different perspective on the game than I do. I think his point is that his intent is to make money. NOT pick winners or show a huge win %.

There are a lot of very smart people here that could be very rich if they spent as much time at a profession as they do at handicapping. I once knew a guy who said,"I don't got no ed-u-ma-cation, but I got a lot of goddamn money".

As an example of what I mean; I started a thread concerning track variants which I discarded many yrs. ago as a lesson in futility and this thread got 3,716 views and 115 replies. I started another thread giving an idea as to how to actually pick winners and it got 480 views and 1 reply. Enough said!
The point I took here was people in this game don't want to be told how to do something. It IS a very egotistical game. Because you are called upon by your peers to defend your opinion. Later on in this thread the discussion turned to tournament players and I almost took offense to some of that banter. I love tournaments. Pell Mell is accurate in that tournaments, being confined to a limited number of hours or days, is just a matter of who got lucky when. Otherwise you would see the same people winning time after time after time. And that is just not the case. The ego part of that discussion I take umbrage to. I know many tournament players and these people are very humble people....almost to the point of being shy. Yes. There are some very large egos at these gatherings, as there are at nearly all racetracks. But don't stereotype here. Fact of the matter: it's still a guessing game. Someone will get luckier than the others in the room.

PS- In no way do I intend to demean or insult anyone but this is just my take as to why there are so many losers out there.
Ahhhhhhh...the one line that is always so easy to ignore, especially when coming from someone who states they have been playing the horses for 60 years. Dismiss him as a fool. I believe his intentions were honorable in this line. I think he trully is trying to get people to THINK and then enter into a discussion of decision making. But we demand PROOF!! Interesting that at one point this took on the religous twist it did! Was it not the masses who asked for proof from the Saviour?? "Prove to me your are the Son of God! Save yourself!" "Where is your database of said success??" "Who are you to tell us you make 100% ROI??" "Crucify him! Crucify him!!"

.....all this. But I could be wrong.

[Pell Mell]

Great spirits have always found violent opposition from mediocrities. The latter cannot understand it when a man does not thoughtlessly submit to hereditary prejudices, but honestly and courageously uses his intelligence and fulfills the duty to express the results of his thought in clear form. (http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/29604.html) http://www.quotationspage.net/icon_info.gif (http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/29604.html)http://www.quotationspage.net/icon_plus.gif (http://www.quotationspage.com/myquotations.php?add=29604)http://www.quotationspage.net/icon_email.gif (http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/29604.html#email)http://www.quotationspage.net/icon_blank.gif
Albert Einstein, quoted in New York

[Greyfox]

I think there was food for thought in this thread....but it oh so quickly turned into one of those "Pace Advantage Lynchings".

.

I'm glad that you found "food for thought" in the thread.
I for one didn't. Telling me that picking a horse is coming down to being a guess, albeit an educated guess, is hardly enlightening.
Everything that takes place in the future is always a guess. We make decisions in the present based on past probabilities to predict the future.
I'm glad that you found PM's comments profound, I didn't.
But as I did remark, his other thread on the 4 questions offers some substance.

[Greyfox]

Great spirits have always found violent opposition from mediocrities. The latter cannot understand it when a man does not thoughtlessly submit to hereditary prejudices, but honestly and courageously uses his intelligence and fulfills the duty to express the results of his thought in clear form. (http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/29604.html) http://www.quotationspage.net/icon_info.gif (http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/29604.html)http://www.quotationspage.net/icon_plus.gif (http://www.quotationspage.com/myquotations.php?add=29604)http://www.quotationspage.net/icon_email.gif (http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/29604.html#email)http://www.quotationspage.net/icon_blank.gif
Albert Einstein, quoted in New York

Einstein was an extremely bright physicist and mathematician.
His observations about other goings on in the universe and well as his
womanizing showed that he was quite human.
What are you trying to tell us by quoting AE?
(Don't forget Einstein also said that God doesn't play dice with the Universe or something to that effect.)

[Donnie]

Greyfox--

Definitions of profound on the Web:

showing intellectual penetration or emotional depths; from the depths of your being; "the differences are profound"; "a profound insight"; "a profound book"; "a profound mind"; "profound contempt"; "profound regret"
of the greatest intensity; complete; "a profound silence"; "a state of profound shock"
fundamental: far-reaching and thoroughgoing in effect especially on the nature of something; "the fundamental revolution in human values that has occurred"; "the book underwent fundamental changes"; "committed the fundamental error of confusing spending with extravagance"; "profound social changes"
coming from deep within one; "a profound sigh"

Please point out where I said I thought his post was "profound".....
.....please.

[Greyfox]

Please point out where I said I thought his post was "profound".....
.....please.

You said that the post offered "Food for Thought."
In daily parlance "food for thought" is supposed to equal "profound."
Or simply stated "If something isn't profound, it isn't food for thought."

In particular, you said :

"I, personally, zeroed in on that last sentence. In reality, doesn't this game come down to an educated guess, just before we put our money down?"

That last sentence was not food for thought, and certainly was not profound. Yet that was the one that you admittedly focussed in on.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I know that I've been critical of Pell Mell here.
However, in fairness to him, he has another simultaneous post going at

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=37523

entitled 4 Questions.... In that thread, I think that his contributions are worlds apart from what he's shown us in this one. There is some food for thought there.
________________
I went back over his 4 questions thread- I got only to bet horses thbat led and faded in the last race. He claims people should either paly full time based on that 1 angle and make 100% and do it full time or stop betting.
He woiuld be the first person I ever heard of to make any kind of a profit betting strictly on last out faders regardless of odds.

[Donnie]

wow!

"food for thought = profound"...is that what you are saying?? :lol:

I MUST be getting old. Here is what the Internet says:

Definitions of food for thought on the Web:

food for thought: anything that provides mental stimulus for thinking I underlined the word anything, as the object does not have to be profound, as in deep, to be food for thought. But since you say so, then it must be!!!

They didn't use the word profound anywhere in there. And nowhere in the definition of the word profound do they use "food for thought".

I focused on the last sentence of the first paragragh not as the entire point of the post....just as a starter of breaking down his post. But you read it as that line was the all encompassing-Earth-shaking-thought-provoking-profound statement of the entire post.

Here is the entire last line:
All these theories that involve data bases, variants, speed and pace ratings, software programs, etc. may give one a general idea as to who might be the fastest animal in a race but in the end it's a guessing game and nobody makes a living guessing even though it may be an educated guess.
Now tie that into the next line. Or go back up and tie it into what his perception of this board is....or what it has become.

But, back to the point, if you can't find the word in my post, then don't attribute me with having said it. I did not. Also I said "...I think it offers food for thought...." Sorry about offering my opinion or my perception. It must of stepped all over yours. And in a game of egos, always remember, the only one that counts is yours!!

[Greyfox]

________________
I went back over his 4 questions thread- I got only to bet horses thbat led and faded in the last race. He claims people should either paly full time based on that 1 angle and make 100% and do it full time or stop betting.
He woiuld be the first person I ever heard of to make any kind of a profit betting strictly on last out faders regardless of odds.

You'd better ask Pell Mell those questions.
I gather from his comments in both threads that he is:

1. looking at basically cheap claiming races.
2. looking for early speed runners that are into the race for the first two fractions last time out, and appear to quit.
3. today they are dropping in class.

Elsewhere he has posted a third thread with his picks. But don't forget he said that he sometimes gives out "falsies" so people won't figure out what his real angle is. I'm not sure that I read into it about that being the only angle, but could have.
My only comment is that there is more meat in that thread to chew on that the backhanders that he has given here.

[Donnie]

Sooooooo....by your definition......this can be considered PROFOUND....??!! :lol:

Food for Thought in Pell Mell's Other Thread.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I know that I've been critical of Pell Mell here.
However, in fairness to him, he has another simultaneous post going at

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...ead.php?t=37523

entitled 4 Questions.... In that thread, I think that his contributions are worlds apart from what he's shown us in this one. There is some food for thought there.

My only comment is that there is more meat in that thread to chew on that the backhanders that he has given here.
Now I am way friggin' confused...... :bang: :bang:
Which is it? Profound? Or no longer Profound?? I feel a little back-pedalling?

[cj's dad]

Just like previous posts, you have once agian spoken of your handicapping prowess and your ability to win,win,win !! What fools we are to not follow your advice. You try to explain your winning methods and we ignore you; go figure!!

Please ,please write a book so we can all get rich. After all, when the information contained in the book proves invaluable and sales rise to astronomical proportions, followed by appearences on ESPN and the likeyou will no longer have to go to the track and associate with such losers as you seem to think those on this site must surely be. Hell man, you may even be invited to appear on Oprah's "book of the month" show ! :lol:

[Greyfox]

wow!

"food for thought = profound"...is that what you are saying?? :lol:

I MUST be getting old. Here is what the Internet says:

!!

Sorry that you have such a narrow view of the word "profound."
I don't need the net to look up definitions. In the words of
Humpty Dumpty
'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone,' it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.' "

So if you've got hardening of the categories, you must be getting old.:lol:

[Good4Now]

from my piano lesson. Glad to see you guy's are still hashing this out,
I gotta go PICK some WINNERS!

[Donnie]

I won't deny my age, but I'd never deny my own intelligence.

In the words of HH....

"carry on! carry on!" (I think that means: it's your world. be happy in it.)

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Pyschlogically, we remember the good hits, and our minds shelve the bad losses. So in many a players' mind, they are "winners".
Interesting.

Some of my most "profound" memories are of my bad losses.

Probably because they were accompanied by my head hitting the table.....

[Donnie]

LOL

....deep, Hajck, deep.....

[kenwoodallpromos]

As I suspected, the MSN definition of the phrase "Pell Mell":

"pell-mell [ pèl mél ]


adverb

Definition:

1. in disorderly rush: in a disorderly frantic rush


2. messily: in a confused, jumbled, or messy manner"

_______________
Mr. Pell Mell is trying to make fools out of all the "losers" on this forum!!!LOL!!

As for the PA Lynching, few if any instant 'capping gurus who have come on this forum have begun by flaming with the "loser" or any other title, and then proceeded to teach "pell mell" method of 'capping!

[how cliche]

Greyfox-
I think there was food for thought in this thread....but it oh so quickly turned into one of those "Pace Advantage Lynchings".

Follow along, lets look at his original post:


I, personally, zeroed in on that last sentence. In reality, doesn't this game come down to an educated guess, just before we put our money down? No one on this earth can say with 100% certainty that any event will happen, especially in horseracing. The variables in every race are different. To me EVERY race is unique. I don't believe I have ever bet on a "sure thing". There is no such event! And to track further up into that post....haven't the discussions on this board borne out the fact that much of what some horseplayers hold near and dear, when put to empirical testing, shows to be aberrations? Many horseplayers are part-timers. Pyschlogically, we remember the good hits, and our minds shelve the bad losses. So in many a players' mind, they are "winners".


Educated guess? 99% of the time. There are however those plays in a spot guys' experience that are more than that. They obviously can't be a 100% certainty to win, because the rider can still fall off or the horse can still get injured. Those are the only ways the runner will lose. Oh, and did I mention they're quite rare? 1 to 3 times a year rare. These plays can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt that they will win. They are most commonly related to patterns of intent, racing into shape & the intentional darkening of form. Prep & go patterns. They're so exact that a program like formulator will never find them. It must be sleuthed out via clipping pp's and proven out by several examples winning over the months or years. Once all that has been completed, what you've suspected is in fact true & you can wager as aggressively as you're comfortable.

[QUOTE=Donnie@HTR]
The point I took here was people in this game don't want to be told how to do something. It IS a very egotistical game. Because you are called upon by your peers to defend your opinion. Later on in this thread the discussion turned to tournament players and I almost took offense to some of that banter. I love tournaments. Pell Mell is accurate in that tournaments, being confined to a limited number of hours or days, is just a matter of who got lucky when. Otherwise you would see the same people winning time after time after time. And that is just not the case. The ego part of that discussion I take umbrage to. I know many tournament players and these people are very humble people....almost to the point of being shy. Yes. There are some very large egos at these gatherings, as there are at nearly all racetracks. But don't stereotype here. Fact of the matter: it's still a guessing game. Someone will get luckier than the others in the room.[QUOTE]


People DO want to learn. People DO want to win. People DO want to be taught.

People DON'T want to be burdened with providing analysis. I don't know why, but it is so. As an aside, but on point, I've never understood why so many people who have proven nothing, not anything get so much respect on PA, while I receive none. All I've done is put my prerace opinions & analysis on the line to this forum and watch them win over and over again. Is it because my methods don't fit nicely on a computer screen? Game theory is fine, but the game itself is the proving ground. I respect the people who have the stones to put themselves out there & give it up to them. How about some reciprocation.

[rastajenk]

I once had the power to affect odds. It was in the pre-simulcasting, pre-internet good ol' days. I made picks in the city's only newspaper, which had far better circulation than the tip sheets sold on-track. I made three selections per race, with a brief reason as to why; it was fairly easy to be right much of the time without having to put too fine a point on it.

But I can't imagine in this era anybody lowering their own payoffs by posting pre-race picks, regardless of the track or the circumstances. It just ain't happening. Nor can I imagine anybody else analyzing those picks so carefully as to discern the method used, and stealing it away for his own profitable use. Not buying that claim, either.

[Donnie]

I agree with you How Cliche.

The best we can do is an educated guess. That, in itself, can be an overburdening chore. I am amazed at people who use tip sheets, and newspapers and computer printouts and whatever else has the data they need to make a "proper analysis", all at once. While I realize the "value" of all of this information, there is a point of paralysis by analysis.

Agreed, pattern recognition is extremely helpful in making these educated guesses. There used to be a trainer at CBY who was an in-and-outer. Every other race, his horses were "sent". Did they win every other race? No. But if you recognized this pattern, then you at least knew the horse was a "go" on the right days. Interestingly, the crowd never seemed to catch on. His horses more times than not were NOT overbet!

I agree, on the whole, that people want to learn. People do want to win. But by nature, many have become lazy. Or tired. Tired of trying crap that doesn't win. The author-Gods actually have not done much for the sport if their guidance mis-directs. But yet people quote them over and over.

I used to post picks on any given night over at HTR for MNR (one of my favorite tracks) and would give a short analysis of why I thought the horse may stand a chance in the upcoming race. Some of the subscribers would happen thru the thread and once in a while we would debate the merits of our choices. Looking at the number of people actually viewing the thread, there were many others just eavesdropping, never participating. The game is tuff. No mistakes there. And when you are ridiculed, why not stand in the shadows?? There is security in the darkness. Even when the darkness is out in the open.

Bring your game over to HTR, HC.....a lot of nights I catch the last 6 or 7 races. And no, you don't need a computer screen to participate. Ken's forum, like this, is open to anyone willing to take 10 seconds to sign up. I'll stick my nads out there....and if I REALLY like a horse, I'll tell you. If I am leary of my choice, you'll pick that up as well. I've had hot nights. I've had cold nights. On cold nights I normally know by my 3rd or 4th bet how things are going and I call it a night early. Either way...it's always fun!

[DanG]

Some of my most "profound" memories are of my bad losses.

Probably because they were accompanied by my head hitting the table.....
LOL… :lol:

Hallelujah brother!!!

[NYPlayer]

I thought for awhile that I didn't understand what is taking place on this website but I think I've figured it out. Initially I thought it was about picking winners but now I don't think that's the case at all. It seems to me that this is a place to discuss different theories that have, over time, been proven to be worthless in the quest to make money from horse racing. All these theories that involve data bases, variants, speed and pace ratings, software programs, etc. may give one a general idea as to who might be the fastest animal in a race but in the end it's a guessing game and nobody makes a living guessing even though it may be an educated guess.

It seems that the prevailing MO here is to get the contenders in a race and look for "Value", which for some may be as low as 6/5 while others may demand more. So, because this is a random act in itself, the strategy looks to be that a certain % of these value plays will win at a certain % that a positive ROI will ensue. What is a positive ROI, 5-10%? By using this strategy you are still performing a random act which is the same as a guessing game. After 60yrs playing horses if I couldn't make a min. of 100% profit I would go and get a real job.

Well said! I still think handicapping theory is valid for analyzing a horse race and weighting out each horse's chances, but in the end, there's always too much randomness that comes in to play. I have a real job, for which I am very grateful especially after a tough day at the track. My MO for betting the horses is take a bankroll and make it last as long as I can. In 11 years of capping '07 has been my best year yet. I was alive from January up until early June getting a lot of action. Aqueduct was good to me. Belmont has proven to be a much tougher game, and lot of it has been because I can't get the right prices, so I'm settling for low prices (although I never bet at 6/5) or impossible longshots. So I'm waiting for Saratoga, where I plan to make a tepid start with a new bank.

I'm convinced what messes up most players is mixing good bets with the bad. There are overlays out there, but there's not enough of them to warrant a full time venture. I figure that if I take my game at a slower pace and reduce my action, I have a decent chance of finishing out the year even or a little ahead. But damn it, I won't give up!

As for this site. I fnd it very entertaining, and even kind of therepeutic in a way.

Long live the game!

[classhandicapper]

IMO, you are absolutely correct that many of the people here would be better served financially if they gave up horseracing and put their energy into something else.

I could easily make more money playing poker to satisfy my gambling instincts and I'm not even very good at it.

I often make more money in a single day of stock market activity than I have in my best year at the racetrack.

Life is not all about money though. It's about enjoying yourself, spending time with family, friends, helping others etc... (whatever floats your boat). Most of us love the challenge of handicapping and the gratification that comes form being able to beat a game that very few people can beat. We also love the sport. That's why we play it.

As far as discussing single races goes, it's often fruitless because a single result doesn't mean very much and we often disagree about what the result means anyway.