Win Without Handicapping

[timtam]

In countless advertisements ( some on this site ) people advocate the

fact you can win at the races without handicapping. Do you think there

is anyone who can either make a living or turn a heathly profit at the

flats without handicapping at all ? I've seen hundreds of systems that

profess this idea and even tried many with / without money and came out

a point blank loser.

[K9Pup]

In countless advertisements ( some on this site ) people advocate the

fact you can win at the races without handicapping. Do you think there

is anyone who can either make a living or turn a heathly profit at the

flats without handicapping at all ?

Yeah the guys that write these things make money.

[Greyfox]

Quite often these people are piggybacking on the ability of others to handicap.
Their methods sometimes employ watching for tote board discrepancies.

[DanG]

Quite often these people are piggybacking on the ability of others to handicap.
Their methods sometimes employ watching for tote board discrepancies.
Serious question…




Does anyone personally know of a chartist who is actually showing a profit?
Is there a direct correlation to the stock market chartist who monitors and anticipate movement?
I say this because we have all seen them frantically scribbling movement and my experience is…


They are often wearing a suit that hasn’t been pressed since the Bay of Pigs.
And their car was once used to sail into Miami from Cuba.
To be clear…I’m not passing judgment on the method or the people who apply it, just a blunt observation.

[rico]

hello is there? good question anything is possible. If they are they aint telling any one. They will pay for the info, make there bets and kick back to the info man.:)

[Tape Reader]

I’m a “chartist” but that does not mean that I don’t handicap, I just happen to handicap the tote board while others handicap past performance.



As far as “piggy backing” on others, that’s an ego statement. How do you know that it is “you” that I am actually following to the window, so to speak?



Handicapping the tote board has many variables just as form analysis does. It is not just following the late money. I look for prices just like you guys do and they are often revealed in suspicious betting patterns.

[46zilzal]

With all the late pulses coming in from off track, this couldn't be as accurate as it once was.

[Cratos]

In countless advertisements ( some on this site ) people advocate the

fact you can win at the races without handicapping. Do you think there

is anyone who can either make a living or turn a heathly profit at the

flats without handicapping at all ? I've seen hundreds of systems that

profess this idea and even tried many with / without money and came out

a point blank loser.

The answer to your question is not simple, but easy to derive. If one bets a horse without handicapping they are betting with the random (non-handicapping) probability of wagering which is historically winning about 33% of the wagers if the odds on favorite are always the bet. However this method does not typically produce a profit because of the low odds.

Another method is the conditional (handicapping) probability of wagering which is betting with given conditions derived from your handicapping. This method is more horse sensitive than odds sensitive and can produce a profit if other conditions are met.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Very seldom does anyone make money on the ponies without being selective as to races they bet, no matter how they 'cap or don't. This is a game of the least informed losing, and the winners being 25% better than the average bettor.

[craig chapman]

I knew the late George Thacker. I watched him play for many years without handicapping. He made his living this way for over 60 years. He strictly played progression and high odd horses. He wrote for PRN and other periodicals.

[TurfRuler]

After you have spent thousands upon thousands of hours scrutinizing the form or other publications to handicap each individual horse in every race conceivable after many long years of study, you can begin to glance at certain races and select winners, whether favorites or longshots. Whether it is just the entries or the past performance pages, without using your detailed or computerized methods of selections. Especially if you are still following the races and the results.

[jonnielu]

In countless advertisements ( some on this site ) people advocate the

fact you can win at the races without handicapping. Do you think there

is anyone who can either make a living or turn a heathly profit at the

flats without handicapping at all ? I've seen hundreds of systems that

profess this idea and even tried many with / without money and came out

a point blank loser.

Hey, I wrote that book. Winning without handicapping is easier to do in these modern times then it used to be. It does help to know something about the particular track you are at, but that is not such a big deal anymore either.

Thank the internet for so much more of the same input into the local pool.

Also, the scope of the handicapper's beliefs is much narrower now, so you can have even more faith that the great body of handicappers nationwide can keep you on the right path.

Take the lowest 4 ML horses, they are usually at the bottom of the program page. Take note of the toteboard activity down to 2 mtp, on these 4 horses. Also take note if any of these are warming up without a lead pony.
If so, and that same horse is at or above its ML odds. Bet it.

No, the at or above its ML is not a typo.

jdl

[fmolf]

Hey, I wrote that book. Winning without handicapping is easier to do in these modern times then it used to be. It does help to know something about the particular track you are at, but that is not such a big deal anymore either.

Thank the internet for so much more of the same input into the local pool.

Also, the scope of the handicapper's beliefs is much narrower now, so you can have even more faith that the great body of handicappers nationwide can keep you on the right path.

Take the lowest 4 ML horses, they are usually at the bottom of the program page. Take note of the toteboard activity down to 2 mtp, on these 4 horses. Also take note if any of these are warming up without a lead pony.
If so, and that same horse is at or above its ML odds. Bet it.

No, the at or above its ML is not a typo.

jdl
i have heard second hand from some track buddies that a few old timers used to use the Dr Z method of place and show betting to eke out a supplement to social security.

[Bruddah]

Very seldom does anyone make money on the ponies without being selective as to races they bet, no matter how they 'cap or don't. This is a game of the least informed losing, and the winners being 25% better than the average bettor.

You said a big mouth full in a small space and deserve an even bigger AMEN BRUDDAH!

[DrugS]

Hey, I wrote that book. Winning without handicapping is easier to do in these modern times then it used to be. It does help to know something about the particular track you are at, but that is not such a big deal anymore either.

Thank the internet for so much more of the same input into the local pool.

Also, the scope of the handicapper's beliefs is much narrower now, so you can have even more faith that the great body of handicappers nationwide can keep you on the right path.

Take the lowest 4 ML horses, they are usually at the bottom of the program page. Take note of the toteboard activity down to 2 mtp, on these 4 horses. Also take note if any of these are warming up without a lead pony.
If so, and that same horse is at or above its ML odds. Bet it.

No, the at or above its ML is not a typo.

jdl

I laughed.

[JeremyJet]

In countless advertisements ( some on this site ) people advocate the

fact you can win at the races without handicapping. Do you think there

is anyone who can either make a living or turn a heathly profit at the

flats without handicapping at all ? I've seen hundreds of systems that

profess this idea and even tried many with / without money and came out

a point blank loser.

Dave Schwartz? I think his handicapping is done by " A logic Named Joe". ;)

Regards,

JeremyJet

[nalley0710]

tape reader,
I have never really thought about handicapping the tote. Any suggestions for reading or study of this method ? It sounds interesting, I know it works in financial markets and betting football, why not horseracing. Thanks for your post.

[Robert Goren]

In the early 90's I keep track of odds drops times with which trainers at fonner park. The results were all over the place. There was perhaps only about 5 trainers showed any timed betting with their winning horses. There also enough losing odds drops made at same time as the winning odds drops on these trainers to make real betting on my part really profitable. There was a lot of odds drops at the 4, 6, and 8 mtp marks. I was never able to find a way to turn this into a winning system.

[Tape Reader]

tape reader,
I have never really thought about handicapping the tote. Any suggestions for reading or study of this method ? It sounds interesting, I know it works in financial markets and betting football, why not horseracing. Thanks for your post.

The easiest way to start is to get some graph paper and chart the odds movement. Somewhat similar to Point and Figure charting in the stock market. If you want you could add a time horizon to show when significant changes took place.

The idea is to connect a winner, or runner up, with an unusual betting pattern. After you have a collection of these charts, you will begin to see some repeatable patterns. Some may be a sharp drop down while others may reveal a significant spike down while the trend is rising.

There are many angles/interpretations to this and of course, if it can be computerized--especially with an auto-bet method--all the better.

[BlueShoe]

Tote play,looking for live horses getting non public support,can work,but just like any other method it can get complicated and frustrating.Tote play goes far beyond just watching for the very late drops.One of my favorite tote angles is a runner that gets heavy early money and who then drifts up sharply in the late betting.About five or six years ago,when in a period when my handicapping was in a fuzzy not very sharp mode,decided to just play the board at my local otb site.No form,program,or newspaper,just a small notebook.For two weeks had no idea what kind of race I was looking at or betting.It could have been a bottom level sprint for maiden claiming 3 yo fillies,or a graded stake turf route for older males.At the end of that period I showed a small but positive profit,which really does not prove anything.There was one huge drawback to doing this;it was terribly boring and monotanous.All my time was spent just crunching numbers,felt like an accountant working in an office.Today my best way to use the board is in races in which I had no strong opinion and had intended to pass.If a horse comes up very live,will bet it and see if an extra winner will result.

[bobphilo]

In one of his books, Andy Beyer compares handicappers to those that use fundamental analysis in playing the stock market and chartists to those using technical analysis. The comparison seems valid at first but falls apart when one realizes that the chartists are depending too strongly, IMO, on the correlation between how people are betting and the results of races. On the other hand, those using technical analysis in the market are more appropriately recognizing the effect of human psychology on stock prices. Their success depends on their ability to better access a horse’s chance of winning than the public – a skill that can be developed.


In other words, a good handicapper in studying a horse’s PPs is more like to get a better picture of a horses ability than is a fundamental investor’s prediction of a stocks true value, while a wise investor using technical analysis is more likely to estimate the true value of a stock, including psychological factors, than a chartist’s estimation of a horse’s odds.


I hope that I wasn’t too obscure. :confused:



Bob

[fmolf]

Tote play,looking for live horses getting non public support,can work,but just like any other method it can get complicated and frustrating.Tote play goes far beyond just watching for the very late drops.One of my favorite tote angles is a runner that gets heavy early money and who then drifts up sharply in the late betting.About five or six years ago,when in a period when my handicapping was in a fuzzy not very sharp mode,decided to just play the board at my local otb site.No form,program,or newspaper,just a small notebook.For two weeks had no idea what kind of race I was looking at or betting.It could have been a bottom level sprint for maiden claiming 3 yo fillies,or a graded stake turf route for older males.At the end of that period I showed a small but positive profit,which really does not prove anything.There was one huge drawback to doing this;it was terribly boring and monotanous.All my time was spent just crunching numbers,felt like an accountant working in an office.Today my best way to use the board is in races in which I had no strong opinion and had intended to pass.If a horse comes up very live,will bet it and see if an extra winner will result.
that angle has been a positive one for me too.It is especially fruitful when the odds drop after the first click. Drift up like you say up until post time, and then drop in the last click again, right before post.

[classhandicapper]

Serious question…



Does anyone personally know of a chartist who is actually showing a profit?
Is there a direct correlation to the stock market chartist who monitors and anticipate movement?
I say this because we have all seen them frantically scribbling movement and my experience is…


They are often wearing a suit that hasn’t been pressed since the Bay of Pigs.
And their car was once used to sail into Miami from Cuba.
To be clear…I’m not passing judgment on the method or the people who apply it, just a blunt observation.

Dan,

I have never known a charter that made money exclusively on charting alone, but I knew one professional player that specialized in maiden races. Charting was a big part of his game (and not just for first timers).

I tend to think that if you studied the betting patterns of certain connections it would be a plus for your results. The reason I say that is my own methodology of handicapping is to a large extent based on having large amounts of information, multiple sources of the same information, and viewing races from a lot of different directions. So most of the time, if a horse is getting bet (or not) I know why. It's just matter of whether I agree with the reasons and which source has it "right". However, once in awhile a horse gets bet way heavier than can be justified by any way of viewing the race. In those cases, I would say the horses tend to run better than their figures suggest way more often than not. When I see a horse taking money I can't explain, I am very careful about betting against it. I want to bet against horses taking money that I can explain where I disagree with public's obvious thinking, perceptions etc..

All that said, I think trying to chart what I am talking about is a very dangerous way to go unless you have large amounts of information and understand it all well. Otherwise, you'll be suspecting inside/smart money a lot more often than is actually the case. There are usually very rational reasons for the betting that less informed and less experienced handicappers just aren't aware of.

[DanG]

Dan,

I have never known a charter that made money exclusively on charting alone, but I knew one professional player that specialized in maiden races. Charting was a big part of his game (and not just for first timers).

Since writing that Class I was way too harsh; must have lost several photos that day. :D

Of course there are people who have figured out ways to profit by charting action. Just because I haven’t met someone who has its just arrogant to state it can’t work. It’s like the people who shout from the mountaintops that sheet reading is fiction. It is; unless it works for you.

I agree with your statement of it being very connection oriented and as we all know…certain barns when dead on the board can be dead on the track as well.

[Tape Reader]

About five or six years ago,when in a period when my handicapping was in a fuzzy not very sharp mode,decided to just play the board at my local otb site.No form,program,or newspaper,just a small notebook.For two weeks had no idea what kind of race I was looking at or betting.It could have been a bottom level sprint for maiden claiming 3 yo fillies,or a graded stake turf route for older males.At the end of that period I showed a small but positive profit,which really does not prove anything.There was one huge drawback to doing this;it was terribly boring and monotanous.All my time was spent just crunching numbers,felt like an accountant working in an office.

I agree with you BlueShoe. IMO, this is why it would be extremely helpful to have a computerized auto-bet program. One would just have to type in the user defined variables and come back at the end of the day to see how much he/she won.