Hollywood Park : One Pick Only Challenge, Longshot with A chance.

[Greyfox]

The money is huge.
In theory, a $ 2 bettor could take it all.

Let's each Pick 1 longshot with a chance.

I'll take # 11 Alpine Nugget in Race 8 - morning line 8-1.

So far my card will be _ _ _ _ _ 11.

What's you'rs, one pick only.

[gIracing]

Mine is icanmakeitrain in the 4th

[Greyfox]

Mine is icanmakeitrain in the 4th

That would be # 3 Icanmakeitrain.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Race 5 - #7 ADD HEAT 12-1 ML

[gIracing]

can we get some breif pointers on why? so I can know why I am betting at least?

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Race 5 - #7 ADD HEAT 12-1 MLSwitch to a hot jock. Second out on AWT after showing speed in his first. I think that Talamo will patiently rate ADD HEAT today and come with one late run. In the last year, Talamo is 33% with Abrams (5-15) but is 50% (2-4) in routes with average winning odds of 9-1.

That being said, I will play him in tandem with #3 GET OFF THE SUGAR. Those will be the only two on my Pik6 ticket in Race 5.

[gIracing]

just a note about that race


scat theif scratched out of a race yesterday to head for this one.... I don't know if anyone likes that angle or not but keep it in mind.. and I gotta tell ya, if you can find a legit reason to throw out that last race... he has the best backline in the field at 12 to 1.. stakes company

on add heat, his 2 races before he actually showed more speed, but he inhierited hte lead at a slower pace this race and held on for 4th.. but this has become a habit for add heat.. that last race they went I think 6F in 1:11 and he still couldn't hold on.. and when I say couldn't hold I mean he was DONEbefore the 8th pole and that's pretty pitiful for an allowence in socal

[betchatoo]

Skipaslew in the 3rd should run away and hide from the field as a single to start the 6. For a price shot I like Coco Belle in the 7th. Had some trouble at the start last race and I think she might control this one start to finish

[gIracing]

Skipaslew in the 3rd should run away and hide from the field as a single to start the 6. For a price shot I like Coco Belle in the 7th. Had some trouble at the start last race and I think she might control this one start to finish


SHUT YO MOUTH !!!! ;)

Add (She also ran a bang up 3nd to the best filly under a mile in the country.. magnificance.. who earned a freakin 109 beyer, and swiss diva, who would tower over this field)

[samyn on the green]

SHUT YO MOUTH !!!! ;)

Add (She also ran a bang up 3nd to the best filly under a mile in the country.. magnificance.. who earned a freakin 109 beyer, and swiss diva, who would tower over this field)How are these fillies going to beat Glorified? I don't even think they will be able to gallop with her. You guys are wasting precious bankroll trying to beat the lock/single of the day. Come to your senses and spread elsewhere.

[gIracing]

just because TVG has hyped glorified and Ron Ellis to no extent, an ron ellis has a cute daughter, doesn't mean glorified is a lock.

and she very well might win.. but that race might be the most wide open of the day. who has she beat? the 2nd place finisher in her allowence win came back and finished 5th in the same condition last week. Also before that race her best finish in the condition was 8th. To put it persepctve, the 3rd place finisher has been stuck in the same condition for 11 months, with 7 races.

Can Glorified win? sure. Is she the "lock of the day" God no.

Coco belle 3 races ago was the Glorified of the race.. even went off as I think the slight fav against magnificance.. and got demolished. She broke her MSW and allowenence in back to back races... than ran into a buzzsaw in Magnifiicance, and silver swallow in the next race, who finished 2nd to rags to riches in the oaks.

Not saying she's a lock but just to show the depth of the race.

how can you even toss you are the answer!

so lock? god no... I'm thinking about pushing the all button

[Greyfox]

The Ticket So Far is shaping up as follows:


3) #8
4) # 3
5) #3, # 5, # 7
6)
7) # 4, # 6
8) # 11

[chickenhead]

add the 13 in the finale. His race 2 back is the best showing of the field, gets Talamo upgrade today. 8-1 ML.

[how cliche]

add the 13 in the finale. His race 2 back is the best showing of the field, gets Talamo upgrade today. 8-1 ML.

I like that one too chickenhead. Horse also goes here for a $28k tag in order to to get all the weight the rules allow.

In the 7th I think #1 Desire To Excel(12-1 m/l)warrants a long look. As a 2 year old this filly ran fast enough, according to bris to win this when dirt sprinting. She then was raced either going long or trying turf, where she didn't fair so well. One year ago to the day she graduated the first allowance condition at Belmont defeating none other than Octave. The are no fillies in the league of Octave here. Desire to Excel 2nd off the lay & going back to what she does best, main track sprinting, is the price horse of the card, imho.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

on add heat, his 2 races before he actually showed more speed, but he inhierited hte lead at a slower pace this race and held on for 4th.. but this has become a habit for add heat.. that last race they went I think 6F in 1:11 and he still couldn't hold on.. and when I say couldn't hold I mean he was DONEbefore the 8th pole and that's pretty pitiful for an allowence in socalYou are absolutely right!

He should be 20-1!

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[Light]

Skipaslew in the 3rd should run away and hide from the field as a single to start the 6.

He is the top pick here,but I dont think he gets the lead here

#1 had psycho speed last time and will be on the front end with
#2 who gets his speed style jock back.May inherit lead when #1 quits.

If the #8 (Skipaslew) goes with them,he better sit right behind,not duel. He's zero for the last 2 years and hasnt hit the board at this distance in 5 tries. Big positive is his last speed rating for 25k equals the top SR(for 8k) here which is:

#6 Dont know if has has it in him to repeat that effort but Potts knows him and has been hot.

#7 Takes a drop from a 16k turf win @TuP to this 8k dirt.Trainer is 30% with first starts but is 1 for last 31.Not good.

#4 I have this horse ranked last(off his last race) but I have to use him. Miyadi is 34% with shippers.50% when dropping 2 or more classes.The horse is 2 for 3 at this distance(and a show). Is taking a big drop and his last work suggests he's revving up.

Picks: 4-8-6

[gIracing]

i gotta tell you, the 7th and 8th is handing it to me right now. I could very easily hit the all button in both... of course I'm not. I have about 3 hours to finish my ticket

[OTM Al]

My bomber pick is #10, General Ron S, in the 8th. 30-1 ML

Reasons: Good sprint sire that is above average with firsters. Nice series of good works. Going without lasix. And most importantly in a MCL, has never lost.

Will of course use both 13 and 14 though.....


Well, I guess on further review I'll never know as he is scratched already. The one bomber I like. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

[gIracing]

dude, these 15 horse maiden claimers is what makes the pick 6 carry over. I want so bad to just push all

[GaryG]

I will be singling #7 LT. LORRAINE in the 6th.

[toetoe]

Samyn, I give Desire to Excel and Princess Iris huge shots today, but if Glorified is as good as you believe, SHE GAWN !! Carry on, as I know it's not easy being green. :ThmbUp:

My pick in race 6 was chosen BEFORE a glance at the morning line. Second start, open down to statebred in the context of a blah field. 20/1 !!!! I give you ... Guydancefromabove. :jump: I also think the 4th is a two-horse event between Tony Montana and Visayas. In race 5, my greedy self likes the two Becerra entrants, Power Shift and Oliver Twisted. I usually avoid Astrodirt, but some of these prices are irresistible.

Great thread. :ThmbUp:

[gIracing]

to give you an idea of how wide the 7th is. not ONE peson has said a thing about the 5/2 second choice

[GaryG]

I also think the 4th is a two-horse event between Tony Montana and Visayas. I partially agree with you here toe squared. IMHO you have this race surrounded with VISAYAS and COYOTE FAST. See you at Tanforan.

[toetoe]

Light,

A three-horse battle on the lead doesn't constitute a duel, does it? Shouldn't that be called a triangular track meet? :D :confused:

[Light]

In race 5, my greedy self likes the two Becerra entrants, Power Shift and Oliver Twisted.


Whatever you do,dont throw out #3 Get off the Sugar. Chalk,but this is as close as I've seen so far as a single.

[gIracing]

Whatever you do,dont throw out #3 Get off the Sugar. Chalk,but this is as close as I've seen so far as a single.

that IS my single

[Light]

For budget minded tickets,I see 3 possible singles. #2(Tony M) in the 4th.#3(Get off the sugar) in the 5th.And #14 (Cool hand Lucca) in 8th.

It looks pretty hitable today. 6th race is main race where a firster can shock but I think the giant tickets will cover that entire field.

[gIracing]

it's hitable, but I would not be suprised if it doesn't get hit again.. heres wy


two races... the 7th and the 8th.

the 7th, the entire world, stretched out already, will look for financial releif, and they will think they have found a free bingo square in Glorified. She holds the key to the entire pick 6. if she gets beat, and you get get a couple more prices... on to wednesday!

the 8th is so wide open.. simply because the type of race it is.. you neve rknow what you are going to get.

[DanG]

it's hitable, but I would not be suprised if it doesn't get hit again.. heres wy


two races... the 7th and the 8th.

the 7th, the entire world, stretched out already, will look for financial releif, and they will think they have found a free bingo square in Glorified. She holds the key to the entire pick 6. if she gets beat, and you get get a couple more prices... on to wednesday!

the 8th is so wide open.. simply because the type of race it is.. you neve rknow what you are going to get.
Don’t bet on that…

I’ll bridge jump that it’s hit several times over today. Could very well be the biggest carryover we see for years.

[chickenhead]

good luck to everyone. I hope I'm not the only one here to hit it :ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

If I've collected everyone's ideas right, the ticket has grown.
It is now:

3) # 7 , 8

4) # 2, 3, 6,7

5) # 2,3,5,7,8

6) # 3,7

7) # 1,4,6

8) # 10, 11, 13, 14

[gIracing]

This is what I have:

3rd: 6,7

4th: 3,6

5th: 3

6th: 1,5,7,8

7th: 4

8th: 13

I'm keeping it small, because I plan to make a nice sized win wager on a live longshot

[Good4Now]

How many more dollars will go in to the pool today?

Seems about a month or so ago they had a big carryover and when it paid out it was $599--

[Niko]

Dan G;

Has the drool stopped coming out yet....

Looks very hittable and I'm sure you dream about days like this (might take the sting out of your bad beat yesterday--but maybe your 5 of 6's made it an ok day)

[gIracing]

soo close! (3).. I thoght he had him when they hit the stretch but couldn't hit the extra gear needed.

however, at 11 to 1.. i'll take that all day long (the bet, not the loss)

[Hajck Hillstrom]

soo close! (3).. I thoght he had him when they hit the stretch but couldn't hit the extra gear needed.

however, at 11 to 1.. i'll take that all day long (the bet, not the loss)I bow to your superior analysis. Your longshot (3) paid $11.00 to place..... as mine (7) only paid $10.40. I'm thinking the late scratch may have impacted that payout adversely though.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[gIracing]

I bow to your superior analysis. Your longshot (3) paid $11.00 to place..... as mine (7) only paid $10.40. I'm thinking the late scratch may have impacted that payout adversely though.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

looking at that this track, any other day I think the 3 would have won.. it's a roller skating rink out there today, and that got pressthepace won. So now the trainer has to look at the conditions and the track bias book!

superior my ass.. if I was that good I wouldn't be bouned out of the P6 in the first leg :)

[chickenhead]

In the 7th I think #1 Desire To Excel(12-1 m/l)warrants a long look.

Nice call hc. :ThmbUp:

[DanG]

Dan G;

Has the drool stopped coming out yet....

Looks very hittable and I'm sure you dream about days like this (might take the sting out of your bad beat yesterday--but maybe your 5 of 6's made it an ok day)

Nicko...what a two days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :bang:

What other game can give you those 2 minute rushes where you’ go from buying investment property to cursing a good friend of my brother Patty Gallagher. (Not literally...Patty is a great guy)

Patty is a hell of a dart player, but we didn’t include him here. Alive to the 2, 14 and our “clever” pick was the FTS # 7. No second guessing this time, because the non-turf maidens aren’t my responsibility.

Congratulations to anyone who nailed it…Well earned major score. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

Our final ticket:

3) # 7 , 8 Yes #8 Won

4) # 2, 3, 6,7 No # 4 Won

5) # 2,3,5,7,8 No # 4 Won

6) # 3,7 Yes # 7 Won

7) # 1,4,6 Yes # 1 Won

8) # 10, 11, 13, 14 No # 9 First Time Starter Won

Thanks everyone. At least we're better than 50 %

[Premier Turf Club]

I was live into the last leg with 2,5,14,15. When the 2 horse opened up 2 lengths with 150 yards I thought I had it. Nosed again...:mad:

[gIracing]

I was live into the last leg with 2,5,14,15. When the 2 horse opened up 2 lengths with 150 yards I thought I had it. Nosed again...:mad:


you gotta be kiddin me.. that sucks

That's another reason why I stay away from big pick 6 tickets.. because I refuse to get beat by something I've never seen.. so I will include all first timers in my ticket

[DanG]

I was live into the last leg with 2,5,14,15. When the 2 horse opened up 2 lengths with 150 yards I thought I had it. Nosed again...:mad:
Ian…

I feel your pain brother…Alive to 2 of your 4 and it was painful. :ThmbDown:

[Ron]

I was live into the last leg with 2,5,14,15. When the 2 horse opened up 2 lengths with 150 yards I thought I had it. Nosed again...:mad:

I think we were all alive with the 2.

[Premier Turf Club]

you gotta be kiddin me.. that sucks

That's another reason why I stay away from big pick 6 tickets.. because I refuse to get beat by something I've never seen.. so I will include all first timers in my ticket

My wife was really bummed at dinner when I told her the story. Her response was "you guys never win those big ones." No sh** I said, they pay that much because they are really hard to hit.

I only play PK6's once or twice a year. I once had multiple 5 of 6's on a BEL PK6 that paid $700,000. I think each of the fives paid like $2500 and there was 3 $20+ winners.

[Greyfox]

On the replay it looks like you won with #2. Obviously the photo finish camera is different.

[Premier Turf Club]

On the replay it looks like you won with #2. Obviously the photo finish camera is different.

I'm not going to watch the replay. Not now, not ever. My nine year old son came up to me after the race and said, "Dad every time you can win a lot of money you always lose by a nose."

Kids say the sweetest things.:)

[DanG]

I'm not going to watch the replay. Not now, not ever. My nine year old son came up to me after the race and said, "Dad every time you can win a lot of money you always lose by a nose."

Kids say the sweetest things.:)
Oh my Ian…

I don’t blame you if you don’t want to comment but…

If you won the last leg and suffered a miss-punch…Very tough to take my friend. I thought I had a tough two days, but I think you topped it.

All my best to you and Gupta during a very exciting / trying day. :ThmbUp:

[cj's dad]

All the experts on this site and there wasn't ONE (1) who came close to predicting the pick 6 @ Hollywood Park. Maybe the real truth of this game is to going back to the days of going to the track and being prepared to lose a few $$, hoping to win a few more and being happy if you did. Aftre all, how many really win at this???

[DanG]

All the experts on this site and there wasn't ONE (1) who came close to predicting the pick 6 @ Hollywood Park.
If losing by a photo isn’t close, then we have to talk. :confused:

[bigmack]

All the experts on this site and there wasn't ONE (1) who came close to predicting the pick 6 @ Hollywood Park. Maybe the real truth of this game is to going back to the days of going to the track and being prepared to lose a few $$, hoping to win a few more and being happy if you did. Aftre all, how many really win at this???
This post combined with your view of the games demise has a certain jade showing through.

Would you actually scour a message board to see if anyone could "predict" a P6 let alone think that anyone with the wherewithall to play it in earnest would post it or even foolhardidly judge the level of todays game by the absence of an experts preditction here?

[gIracing]

All the experts on this site and there wasn't ONE (1) who came close to predicting the pick 6 @ Hollywood Park. Maybe the real truth of this game is to going back to the days of going to the track and being prepared to lose a few $$, hoping to win a few more and being happy if you did. Aftre all, how many really win at this???

tisk tisk..

Babe ruth lead the league in home runs the majrority of years he was in the major leagues. however what most people don't know, is that he lead the league in strikeouts EVERY year he was in the major leagues

he struck out more than anyone, yet is seen as the most successful homerun person of his generation and to some of all time.

in a game (horse racing) that has sooooo many variables.. tracks, athletes who can't talk (horses), jockies, trainers, track takeout, etc.. you win every race. I do pretty good handicapping races to the point where this is what I do full time and I hover around 32ish percent for the most part... the difference between myself and most people however is I will wait for the correct betteting oppertunity to come along.

alot of horse players are afraid to loose. shoot. it happens. Every race I loose I go back and see if I made a handicapping mistake or if I just lost. half the time it is something beyond my control.. the jockey dropping the whip.. the jockey just not being smart, the race not playing out like you want, horse coming up lame, horse bleeding... alot of stuff you can't control. deal with it

As long as I am making good bets, I'm fine. I dont' chase money, I'm going to loose some (like Icanmakeitrain today) but I don't feel bad in the least bit making that bet. Why? Because i know if you make your bet 100 times (say, the fav) and i make my bet 100 times.. a horse who I thought was the best hose in the race at 11 to 1.. I'm going to make a long term profit and you aren't.

I've made bad bets, and won and not been happy with myself. Good bets over a long period of time will pay it's dues.

however it's people with that mindset that I THIRVE on.. go ahead and bet blindly and throw away your money.

the thing about pick 6's is it is not so much about picking the horses. unlike the dopes on TVG...there wasn't a horse..okay exepct pressthepace for me, that didn't figure. however, going thought a ticket and picking every horse that figures is going to cost upwards of 5 grand! and what if all chalk comes home.. you just lost money on a pick 6 bet! The best way to play a pick 6 is to take stands.. I took a stand against Coyote Fast & glorified.. I wll loose a hell of alot more than I win.. But when I DO win, it's windfall and I didn't have to spend thoudands of dollars to do so.

[Greyfox]

All the experts on this site and there wasn't ONE (1) who came close to predicting the pick 6 @ Hollywood Park. ?


I think that you missed the assigned task.
The assignment wasn't to pick the Pick 6. It was:

"Let's each Pick 1 longshot with a chance."
Several of us indeed came close to the actual pick.

[DanG]

Would you actually scour a message board to see if anyone could "predict" a P6 let alone think that anyone with the wherewithall to play it in earnest would post it or even foolhardidly judge the level of todays game by the absence of an experts preditction here?
I agree with Mack here…

When the three men I work with give me their selections and strategy, I should post them in a public forum so they can fire me? :confused:


That’s the part of this quest that unfortunately rarely goes public. It’s part of the reason why we can’t break through like poker into the mainstream. There is and always will be a clandestine nature to pari-mutuel wagering that leaves many people wondering who the hell is actually taking the cash.

Some people here probably know one of my partners Steve. He’s been around Las Vegas (he just moved to Tahoe) for so long there has to be several people who know him by sight at least. The other two guys are so private; I would have never met them if it wasn’t for Steve.

One of them has earned a living through a multitude of investments and the other has lived a quality life supported only from the races for decades. He doesn’t exist in the horse playing world as we know it. He chooses to operate from the shadows and seeks zero publicity.

I’ve heard so many people speculate on who actually profits from this game…I’ve heard every figure from zero to a few hundred. I’m not sure what figure to put on it, because many who lose…lose far more than they admit and many who win are literally ghosts in the machine.

Sorry about the rambling…two straight 5’s in the pick-6 and several Drambuies will bring out the worst sometimes. :blush:

[how cliche]

Nice call hc. :ThmbUp:

Thanks very much. I appreciate it. It's fun when they perform the way you believe they should.:)

[gIracing]

I agree with Mack here…

When the three men I work with give me their selections and strategy, I should post them in a public forum so they can fire me? :confused:


That’s the part of this quest that unfortunately rarely goes public. It’s part of the reason why we can’t break through like poker into the mainstream. There is and always will be a clandestine nature to pari-mutuel wagering that leaves many people wondering who the hell is actually taking the cash.

Some people here probably know one of my partners Steve. He’s been around Las Vegas (he just moved to Tahoe) for so long there has to be several people who know him by sight at least. The other two guys are so private; I would have never met them if it wasn’t for Steve.

One of them has earned a living through a multitude of investments and the other has lived a quality life supported only from the races for decades. He doesn’t exist in the horse playing world as we know it. He chooses to operate from the shadows and seeks zero publicity.

I’ve heard so many people speculate on who actually profits from this game…I’ve heard every figure from zero to a few hundred. I’m not sure what figure to put on it, because many who lose…lose far more than they admit and many who win are literally ghosts in the machine.

Sorry about the rambling…two straight 5’s in the pick-6 and several Drambuies will bring out the worst sometimes. :blush:


that's a point as well. Twofold. First of all.. turth be told. I want to take every last one of your money at the window. it's the nature of the game. I have to eat. At the end of the day, everyone is looking out for number one. Am I going to give you my horse pick who I have been waitin on for a month to hit the track and I know he's going to go off at a price? Why? s you can beat him down? I want every last dollar I can get.

people, expcially professoinal's jobs are not to provide you with winning information, it's to provide you with information to come back to the track. you will never make any real money unitl you learn how to handicap yourself, truely handcap a race. you will never make a living betting other people's opinions.

[Light]

All the experts on this site and there wasn't ONE (1) who came close to predicting the pick 6 @ Hollywood Park.

With $7.5 million of tickets played in todays pk6 and only 13 winning tickets we stand guilty as charged.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

All the experts on this site and there wasn't ONE (1) who came close to predicting the pick 6 @ Hollywood Park. Maybe the real truth of this game is to going back to the days of going to the track and being prepared to lose a few $$, hoping to win a few more and being happy if you did. Aftre all, how many really win at this???You were right about one thing: there wasn't ONE (1) that came close............there were TWO (2)!

And that, my friend, was as CLOSE as it gets! Once again, not only does the integrity of this board shine through, but its handicapping acumen as well. Playing your cards close to the vest is key in collecting your due. Tickets don't have to be posted for perspectives to be exchanged.

A tip of the cap to DanG and Premier Turf Club on an outstanding effort, and though you will find little solace in the fact....I feel your pain, brothers.:ThmbUp:

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[sammy the sage]

by the way...this is/was not true...

, "is that he lead the league in strikeouts EVERY year he was in the major leagues

he struck out more than anyone,"


he walked more than any-one in his generation...life-time B.A well over 300 as well...you don't get that by striking out!

[cj's dad]

First opportunity I've had to reply to all the responses re: my negativepost about the pick 6.

99% of what I say on this site in reply to posts is said "tongue in cheek".

I respect the judgement of most of the folks here and my point was that even with all the handicapping prowess available that the "6" was not hit.