Largest Carryover ($ 3.2 MILLION !) EVER, EVER Assured

[Turfday]

There are NO live tickets going into the (9th) race at Hollywood Park. This insures the largest Pick 6 carryover in Pick Six history for a totally innocuous card on Monday.

[gIracing]

i'll be playing a ticket tomorrow

[Niko]

u should've played it today if you liked the 80-1, or at least the p4

[gIracing]

i actually would have had the first 3 assuming I had a ticket. and I wuld have bombed the next 3. I had the takedown horse in the 8th, i had the 2 in the 9th

but I didn't play because i had no idea in the 8th.. I took a stab in the dark.


just because there is a carryover.. you still hve to be able to hit it.

Ithink tiomorrow's card is hittable

[point given]

OK who is in ?

I just did a all x all x all x all x all x single digit horses in the last
thats 8 x 7 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 8 ticket = $ 451,584
( of course , its before scratches )

With the 3.2 mil carryover, what is the estimate of the final pool $6 mil ?

I'm getting the mortgage out ! :jump:

[gIracing]

try 8-10mil

a 1 ticket hit should pay every bit of 5-5.5 mil

I'll give you a free space

Icanmakeitrain in the 4th is a single.. trust me.. well assuming the form is the same as earlier in the year which considering last race it is

[point given]

try 8-10mil

a 1 ticket hit should pay every bit of 5-5.5 mil

I'll give you a free space

Icanmakeitrain in the 4th is a single.. trust me.. well assuming the form is the same as earlier in the year which considering last race it is

Didn't you try to sell me a car last year ??

[gIracing]

i'm ont going to play a huge ticket... but if I lost I wouldn't be upset.. I would want it to carryover to the 4th of july.

could you even fathom the 4th, with what... a 13-15 million dollar pick 6 pool?

[Turfday]

NM

[gIracing]

Didn't you try to sell me a car last year ??

actually I used to sell Infiniti's funny enough.. for about 2 years. Did real good but got tired of "misleading" customers and left the business.

I'm looking at the 4th.. and I love icanmakeitrain.. but this damn VISAYAS and he scares the crap out of me. you can throw all his past numbers out. he will be a price, but I don't know what lobo did with this horse in his last race.. I've seen all this horses races... and he is a horse that liked to take the lead and get tired. get the lead, pressthe pace, get tired, fade.

After one race, lobo changed his running style and he looked lke Demascus and won drawing away in hand.. mind you it was a maiden 20k claimer but still.. it was impressive.

and to boot he had a 46 and 3 work last week

shoot... demlimas..

[joeyreb]

That's a wide open race

I like the 7 - Coyote Fast there, but if they let 4 -Pressthepace alone on the lead he could steal it.

I would go at least three deep there
4 6 7

My thoughts on the rest of the card

http://www.inside-the-paddock.com/mypicks.htm

[gIracing]

1. pressthepace has no chance whatsoever to win... every race execpt one,a weak 20k claimer maiden earlier this year, she hits a wall at about the 5 1/2 mark, pressed or left alone.. she just doesn't have the stanama.. even in the race she won (which I saw live) it was a defalt win... she looked like me coming home after a long saturday night out. and he's one of thoose horses that when he hits the wall, he STOPS.. Can he win? it's horse racing.. antyhing can happen. But pick 6's are about taking stand, and I am talking a stand against a horse that ha sproven time and time again he fades after pressing the pace... and fades BAD. that and the workout pattern leaves alot to be desired.

2. I am taking a not so big stand against Coyote Fast.. she fights for it, but doesn't like to win.. even with rail skimming ground saving trips, she doesn't have that extra gear to hold off or to surpass.. plus she's been a money burner extrodnaire in the past. She might very well win it, but she has no business being the odds she will get.

3. I like icanmakeitrain because I know no one is oging to look past her last race. she has been keeping better com pany than any horse in the race up until last, and was actually IN the races.. 3rd, 3rd fading... then was shipped up north to break her maiden and RUMPED home.. but look at her class from earlier this year and anyone elses and it's not even close. She was in maiden 70k cliamers, these are 20k claimers.. but everyone iwll at the fact she came from golden gate to win and automatically throw her out.. tisk tisk


don't leave the 5 out of your ticket.. that horse scares me to death

Tony Montana is a good horse, and can actually win it, but comes from the clouds every race, and has to have a damn nea rperfect trip to win.. closes like a fright train.. if I was going deep I would include, but i"m not so I am taking a stand

the other horse has too many question marks for me to put in the winers circle

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I'll give you a free space. Icanmakeitrain in the 4th is a single.. trust me.. well assuming the form is the same as earlier in the year which considering last race it isAs much as I would like to trust you, I just can't share your confidence here, though I will respect it and give him some serious consideration. Gun to my head though.....I think he finishes 3rd.

Damn, I would hate going 3 deep in a 7 horse field.

[gIracing]

i dont' care if you trust me or not, it's my ticket... but don't say I didn't tell you.. I don't bet very many races, only when I have stong opinions.. and I have a VERY strong opinion in that race.

for the record I'm going 2 deep with the 3-6 in that race

[DanG]

i dont' care if you trust me or not, it's my ticket... but don't say I didn't tell you.. I don't bet very many races, only when I have stong opinions.. and I have a VERY strong opinion in that race.

for the record I'm going 2 deep with the 3-6 in that race
Good luck;

I wouldn’t single him with your money…but, it’s your money after all so all the best. :ThmbUp:

[gIracing]

I'm not singling him.. I'm going 2 deep with the 6.

[DanG]

I'm not singling him.. I'm going 2 deep with the 6.
My bad, it’s late and I think I’m starting to see double. :eek:

I thought I read it was a STRONG opinion, so I assumed wrong.

BOL, regardless. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[gIracing]

I do.. my strong opinion is that the 7 will be vastly overbet and that the 3 is in fact the best horse in the race. however at the same time, the 6 has alot of value and will have alot of value if it can reproduce his last race

[chickenhead]

I think the 2 and the 6 are must use. 4 and 7 would be second tier.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

i dont' care if you trust me or not, it's my ticket... but don't say I didn't tell you.. I don't bet very many races, only when I have stong opinions.. and I have a VERY strong opinion in that race. for the record I'm going 2 deep with the 3-6 in that raceDeal!

I won't say that you didn't tell me. Also, it is good to know that when you have a VERY strong opinion, that you back it up with a completely different one, rendering your VERY strong opinion somewhat tepid. Not a bad perspective though in this game, as you should keep your top selection close, and chaos closer.

Icanmakeitrain in the 4th is a single.. trust me..
I'm getting a lot of mixed "singles" here. :D

Seriously, all the best today with Icanmakeitrain. I hope he wins by 10!

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I do.. my strong opinion is that the 7 will be vastly overbet and that the 3 is in fact the best horse in the race. however at the same time, the 6 has alot of value and will have alot of value if it can reproduce his last raceThe key "value" play in the Pik6 wager is a "Single."

So what you are saying is that Icanmakeitrain "isn't" a "free square" after all?

[DanG]

Deal!

I won't say that you didn't tell me. Also, it is good to know that when you have a VERY strong opinion, that you back it up with a completely different one, rendering your VERY strong opinion somewhat tepid. Not a bad perspective though in this game, as you should keep your top selection close, and chaos closer.


I'm getting a lot of mixed "singles" here. :D

Seriously, all the best today with Icanmakeitrain. I hope he wins by 10!

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck
I will say "GI" has confidence Hajck…

Always makes for good reading when a player talks in terms of absolutes and not probabilities. ;)

Best of luck today my friend…I would be honored to share the pot with you. It would be a nice bonus for your Vegas moving expenses. :)

[Maverick58034]

I don't see how that 3, Icanmakeitrain, can possibly survive the duel with the 4, Pressthepace (oh the irony). Neither have shown the ability to rate. While the 3 is lightly raced and potentially could rate today, I'm not so confident. The presence of Victor in the irons certainly helps; After looking at the charts for his previous defeats, it doesn't appear that he ran into any monsters, and it took a 5 horse field at Golden Gate to break the Maiden. I don't see how the 3 will be able to shake that 4 off. Even if he does, how will he have anything left?

The same story goes with the 4, Pressthepace. His record of 11-1-4-0 reflects his lack of staminia. In his most recent race, on June 10th, he was able to secure the lead but was pressed by Coyote Fast, the 7 in this race. Even if the 4 is able to shake the 3 off, the 7 would be able to pounce easily. With Gryder riding the horse has shown some of his best talent (including his only win), and his presence today suggests another front-running effort.

The 7, Coyote Fast showed rating ability in his last race, sitting off the 4 and passing him before being "worn down late" by Blaze It, who has yet to race again. I think the presence of the 7 in this race further decreases the likelihood of either the 3 or the 4 winning this race. However, I am not sold on the 7 winning this race either. It looks like he will have first run at the fading frontrunners, but history says this horse is destined for another minor share. After failing to win as the favorite in 3 consecutive races (same class as today) the public wised up and let him off closer to 4-1. I doubt he will be that today (maybe 1/2 that), and a likely underlay. Nevertheless, he still has a pretty good chance to win, and I believe deserves inclusion in a multi-race.

So what are we left with? The 1, Dr. Mohrbacher has to deal with the rail in his second start. He raced well enough in his first races, and retains the services of Nakatani. I don't see him as having enough speed to challenge or keep up with the 3 or the 4, so his post could become a potential issue. Trainer Doug O'Neill also shows a weakness for second time starters, with only 2 wins from 29 starts in the past 2 years for second time starters/winners last out. These factors put together do not make the 1 much of an inticing prospect in my humble opinion.

The 2, Tony Montana, is coming off a layoff after a close second at this class, but on the turf, back in March. He was ridden by Alferez at the time, and gets a nice change toda to Talamo, in addition to dropping a few pounds. A race similar to that on January 24 would be tough to deny. His off-the-pace running style should be rewarded today, in addition to a ground-saving trip. Trainer Stacy Young shows a positive Turt-to-Dirt switch of 50%, but out of only 6 starts. I also show Stacy Young as only having 75 stars in the past 5 years, so stats can be quite deceiving. Nevertheless, I would label him as a serious threat.

The 5, Recuerdo Pia, does not appear to belong in this class. I am expecting no performance from him.

Finally, the 6, Visayas, might offer the best value in the race at 5-1. Coming from the hot Paulo Lobo barn, Visayas graduatated from the maiden claiming ranks on June 2nd by rallying from the back of the pack. That 1/2 furlong cutback could prove a problem for him, but the sharp June 24 workout of 46.4H 1/54 makes one wonder how far back he will be today. The 67% jockey/trainer combo doesn't hurt either.


I feel the best value in this race lies with the 6, but I plan on using some variation of the 2/6/7 in my pick 6 ticket.

Thats my $.02,
-Mav

[gIracing]

icanmakeitrain has proven in the past to be rateable when need be. he's not Demascus or anything but he doesn't have to go out wtih icanmakeitrain either.

even if he DID.. and I've thought about this until nasum, the horses that he was going out and pressing the pace with would kill this field and he still was holding on for strong 3rds. That's a chance I am willing ot take.


my bottom line is this... If I had to single, it's the 3 becuase I think he's the best horse. if eh gets beat he gets beat. because there happens to be a 3.2Mil carryover, I'm spreading it out, so I'm going with the 6. I even thought about the 2 but I would need a perfect trip and I"m fine with taking a stand on him.


Yeah, the fading the pressthepace has done has been horrible.. he has been fading against LOWER company where as I can make it rain was presisng the pace in higher classes and still only loosing by a couple of lengths, and hwne he found a soft field, he demolished it.
I thought about it last night... and I'm going to single the 3 for this simple reason. you can't like the 6 without liking the 1... both of their last races are VERY similar..even though the 1 is coming off somewhat of a layoff.. and I'm not going 3-4 deep, so I'm singling the 3. If I get beat I get beat.

[boomman]

Excellent analysis Mav, and best of luck today!:)

[DanG]

icanmakeitrain has proven in the past to be rateable when need be. he's not Demascus or anything but he doesn't have to go out wtih icanmakeitrain either. :confused:

even if he DID.. and I've thought about this until nasum, the horses that he was going out and pressing the pace with would kill this field and he still was holding on for strong 3rds. That's a chance I am willing ot take.


my bottom line is this... If I had to single, it's the 3 becuase I think he's the best horse. if eh gets beat he gets beat. because there happens to be a 3.2Mil carryover, I'm spreading it out, so I'm going with the 6. I even thought about the 2 but I would need a perfect trip and I"m fine with taking a stand on him.


Yeah, the fading the pressthepace has done has been horrible.. he has been fading against LOWER company where as I can make it rain was presisng the pace in higher classes and still only loosing by a couple of lengths, and hwne he found a soft field, he demolished it.
I thought about it last night... and I'm going to single the 3 for this simple reason. you can't like the 6 without liking the 1... both of their last races are VERY similar..even though the 1 is coming off somewhat of a layoff.. and I'm not going 3-4 deep, so I'm singling the 3. If I get beat I get beat.
I’m honestly dizzy after reading that, :confused: but if you win this thing your posts will be a blast to read.

Go get em GI. :ThmbUp:

[gIracing]

lol, i was thinking out loud.

right now I have a $96 dollar ticket. By adding the 6.. then possibly add the 1.. you gotta stop somewhere.

if I loose I loose.. no biggie, it happens.. but IMHO icanmakeitrain is the best horse in the race, and when you think a horse is the best you bet on him

[gIracing]

aright.... i changed my mind again. I'm putting the 6 on my ticket. I'm basically going for 5 out of 6.. I have no clue in the 7th.. i can see 5 horses winning it, and I was trying to conpensate for that.. but I'm spreading the love in the other 5 races trying to hit them, and I'm going to take a shot on coco belle.... reason being, if I can get 5 out of 6.. I'm still going to get paid, and if coco belle comes in, and not glorified like I know everyone else is going to bet..... can you say single ticket?

[DanG]

aright.... i changed my mind again. I'm putting the 6 on my ticket. I'm basically going for 5 out of 6.. I have no clue in the 7th.. i can see 5 horses winning it, and I was trying to conpensate for that.. but I'm spreading the love in the other 5 races trying to hit them, and I'm going to take a shot on coco belle.... reason being, if I can get 5 out of 6.. I'm still going to get paid, and if coco belle comes in, and not glorified like I know everyone else is going to bet..... can you say single ticket?
Plenty of time left and writers cramp is hours away…Don’t send it in yet; I feel another epiphany is on the horizon. :jump::jump:

[gIracing]

nah.. my ticket is signed sealed and delivered.. I've been debating over the 7th all night long. I don't like glorified... let me rephrase.. I see other horses I like just as much as her. then when I thought about it... 5 out of 6 wll pay easily in the 5 and maybe even the 6 figures... shoot for that.

[GaryG]

Don't leave off Glorified....please. I know her last win was not highly rated but she was under double wraps the entire way and was never asked. This looks like a very nice filly. You don't need to single her if you don't want to but don't leave her off the ticket.

[gIracing]

i sawt he last race, and her maiden.. i'm just not that impressed (for this calibur of jump). the only reason that she is the fav in this race is because it was her last race.. but 3-4 horses in this field won their first allowence race in simiilar fashion.

also, and this is something people forget or seem to at least... the GOOOD maidens race beween say september and January. After say jaunuary, the talent of the maidens drops off dramatically. the fields of maidens and allowence horses that the others beat crushes what glorified did.

[GaryG]

the fields of maidens and allowence horses that the others beat crushes what glorified did.What do you base this opinion on? Observation of races, figures, ???

[gIracing]

I watch all races live. I use speed figures but I trust what I see more.

just go back and look at the fields that everyone has beaten

in this case, I think speed figures are not in factor because it was 1) ovbious that glorified was under a death grip the last 8th of the race and 2) speed figures can be tosses when someone is heads and sholders better than their compitition

put it in perspective: Glorified in her maiden beat no one. Correct me if I am wrong, but no one she has beaten in her maiden has yet broke their maiden

I know Jen's New chapter, the 2nd place finisher against glorified, finished 5th last week in her maiden

Take coco belle.. who did she beat in her maiden? A horse by the name of Silver Swallow as well asInto Reality, who is a stakes winner now.


Coco Belle in her allowence.. it was actually I don't think as tough as her maiden to be honest, but the horses still have run respectable races. Glorifed beat a hose that has been in the same condition for almost a year, and the 2nd place finisher came back last week to finish 5th in the same condition race.

to wrap it up, she looks good, but against who?

If you tell me I can get 15 to 1 on a horse that came to 3rd against Magnificance and Swiss diva, and was caught in THIS in the next race

21.61, 43.98, 1:09.41, 1:22.80

Then I'm in.

And she is just ONE of the fillies i Like.

[point given]

in the pool with 20 mins to post. I put togehter a dream ticket based on MLs less than double digits. Lets see how it does for laffs.

r3 468
r4 1267
r5 123469
r6 245678
r7 4567
r8 23459111314

3x4x6x6x4x8 = $37,648.

[joeyreb]

1. pressthepace has no chance whatsoever to win... every race execpt one,a weak 20k claimer maiden earlier this year, she hits a wall at about the 5 1/2 mark, pressed or left alone.. she just doesn't have the stanama.. even in the race she won (which I saw live) it was a defalt win... she looked like me coming home after a long saturday night out. and he's one of thoose horses that when he hits the wall, he STOPS.. Can he win? it's horse racing.. antyhing can happen. But pick 6's are about taking stand, and I am talking a stand against a horse that ha sproven time and time again he fades after pressing the pace... and fades BAD. that and the workout pattern leaves alot to be desired.


hmmmmm, your ticket is dead

[gIracing]

that's horse racing for ya

my ticket was dead in the first leg, I didn't like skipaslew on the class drop.. and he barely won

I didn't play a huge ticket.. about 50 bucks, but I had a lot of money on the 3's nose and he came just short.. but it was still a damn good bet that I dont' feel bad about

[Ron]

that's horse racing for ya

my ticket was dead in the first leg, I didn't like skipaslew on the class drop.. and he barely won

I didn't play a huge ticket.. about 50 bucks, but I had a lot of money on the 3's nose and he came just short.. but it was still a damn good bet that I dont' feel bad about

I wouldn't say Skipaslew barely won. He ran a perfectly timed race.

[gIracing]

uh.. did you see him staggering down the lane.. if any horse had any late kick he was dead meat. He got really soft fractions.. but that's neither hear nor there.. At 11 to 1 that's a loss I can take.. and he loss by a length or so

[joeyreb]

I don't usually play the Pk 6 - I played a small ticket

race 3 - 8
race 4 - 4, 7
race 5 - 3
race 6 - 7, 8
race 7 - 6
race 8 - 2,3,14

vs

My Pk 4

race 5 - 3,4,6
race 6 - 6, 7, 8
race 7 - 6
race 8 - 2,3, 14

horses on the lead have been tough lately

I left off the #1 on Friday's Race 1, that costed me $15k in the early Pk 4

[gIracing]

Don't leave off Glorified....please. I know her last win was not highly rated but she was under double wraps the entire way and was never asked. This looks like a very nice filly. You don't need to single her if you don't want to but don't leave her off the ticket.

I took a stand against glorified and I was right.. however I wanted higher odds than that on coco belle to make a bet so I stayed out... i'm glad I did

[DJofSD]

Appears to be lots of live tickets going into the last leg with the 12 horse being on one ticket -- $7,000,000+ probable payout according to TVG.

[gIracing]

let's go UNCLE BUCKY!!!!

I promise if you win i will bet you blindly for the rest of my life

[Steve 'StatMan']

Yeah, I'm afraid if #1 Uncle Bucky wins the last race, and it carries over yet again, that I'll try making another large wager that I probably shouldn't be making. Not sure if I want to root for the #1 or not.

Anyone Still Alive? I'll root for you.

Looks like #12, at 35/1 right now, would take the whole Pick 6 pool.

[chickenhead]

what are the 13 and 14 paying?

[gIracing]

i played a 40 dollar ticket so I'm still good.... if it carries... wednesday will be one of the best days ever in horse racing...

[Steve 'StatMan']

Going into the gate

13 = 5/1

14 = 5/2

[Steve 'StatMan']

OH MAN! Last jump, did the 9 get up, or did the 2 hang on.

9 pays 576,000 & 2 pays 250,000

[Steve 'StatMan']

9 gets it at the wire!

OH MAN! That'd hurt to have only the 2 going into the last.

[gIracing]

I would have been happy with 5 out of 6


I wonder how much that one guy who had the 12 got for 5 out of 6

[Zman179]

I would have been happy with 5 out of 6


I wonder how much that one guy who had the 12 got for 5 out of 6

Probably a tenth of what he put into it.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I wonder how much that one guy who had the 12 got for 5 out of 6

Same as everyone else with 5 of 6 - about $2,200.

12 gave a heck of a run. But hard to go from $7.4 Million to $2,200.

Of course, a lot of us went to zero a couple hours ago.

[GaryG]

9 gets it at the wire!

OH MAN! That'd hurt to have only the 2 going into the last.Hurt? You mean suicide watch! This is a tough game and it can be brutal.

[gIracing]

nothing is worse than that guy who got cheated out of 850 gr earlier in the meet when the whore who won kocked him 3-4 paths out of the way and still only lost by a head, and no objection was called.

580k=5600

[steel6061]

this is when I truly feel for unlucky horseplayers. I have a friend who had the #2 SINGLED in the final leg. Wow wow wow. I feel so bad for him. hope some of you had some winners today and I look forward to this week's racing at Hollywood, should be a good week.

[Dr Win]

That'd hurt
Mist 7th race

[Zman179]

this is when I truly feel for unlucky horseplayers. I have a friend who had the #2 SINGLED in the final leg. Wow wow wow. I feel so bad for him. hope some of you had some winners today and I look forward to this week's racing at Hollywood, should be a good week.

OMG. In my case, that would truly give meaning to the term "bridgejumper." To have a quarter of a million dollars snatched out of one's hands like that...

[DJofSD]

No cost registration required. (http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dwyre7jul07,1,3463033.column?coll=la-headlines-sports&ctrack=6&cset=true)

He's glad he let it ride
With $1,000 in the bank, a struggling bettor turns a $432 pick-six investment into about $600,000. It came down to a photo finish for the delivery man who once had to sell his house because of drug use.

July 7, 2007

For the second time in less than a month, horse racing has enjoyed a Rags To Riches moment.

The first, of course, was the marvelous filly of that name winning the Belmont Stakes with a stirring stretch run that beat the boys June 9.

And now, we have marvelous horse player Steve Mitchell, hitting the wire perfectly in Monday's pick six at Hollywood Park. If they had a winners' circle for bettors, Mitchell would get his picture taken with a check for about $600,000.

Mitchell's story is special because his successful pick six was all his. Frequently, the winners in this super bowl of exotic betting are a syndicate of 27 rich guys in coats and ties in high-rise offices, combining to invest $10,000 on a ticket that has so many permutations you need an MBA from the Wharton School to understand it.

This time, at least two of the perfect bets were made by average Joes, including father-daughter Jack and Lyn Ford, who put down a total of $6 at Los Alamitos and got a return of $1,154,321.

Mitchell's investment was $432. In his case, the term "money well spent" has seldom been more appropriate.