Here is the $172.00 question

[gIracing]

How does a horse, who has never raced on the turf, whoose sire has sired a Grade 1 stakes winner ont he turf, and multiple winners on turf, and the damsire himself won the Grade 1 Secretariat S (which is on turf) and himself has sired a number of turf runners....

go off at 80 ton 1?

Mind you.. I didn't think he should have been the FAV (I'm talking about Bright Perdiction)... but 80 to 1? That's just unreal. needless to say I had him.. off pedigree alone.

it pays to know your pedigrees.. that's most handicappers downfall.. they don't bother looking at a horse and look for reasons to toss a horses and it comes back to bight them in the @@@.

horse shouldn't been over 15 to 1 and even that was a stretch given he never raced on turf.

[Bob G]

You answered your own question. A lot of people don't know much about pedigree or its importance.

[DanG]

How does a horse, who has never raced on the turf, whoose sire has sired a Grade 1 stakes winner ont he turf, and multiple winners on turf, and the damsire himself won the Grade 1 Secretariat S (which is on turf) and himself has sired a number of turf runners....

go off at 80 ton 1?

Mind you.. I didn't think he should have been the FAV (I'm talking about Bright Perdiction)... but 80 to 1? That's just unreal. needless to say I had him.. off pedigree alone.

it pays to know your pedigrees.. that's most handicappers downfall.. they don't bother looking at a horse and look for reasons to toss a horses and it comes back to bight them in the @@@.

horse shouldn't been over 15 to 1 and even that was a stretch given he never raced on turf.
With all due respect…

Pure nonsense concerning his pedigree top and bottom being exceptional for 10f on the grass IMO.

[LemonSoupKid]

In general horses have been inbred to a great degree. Lots of sires have progeny that are successful. There were probably a few in that race that had classically successful sires ... no?

good job though

[gIracing]

but all the others have proved that they can't run on the grass.. he had never raced on the grass.

it was a true educated stab in the dark. even if he would have came in dead last I wouldn't have cared.. I'd make that bet time and time again.

[Overlay]

I don't dispute the influence of breeding on turf preference and ability, but I would be curious (without having the past performances in front of me) whether the horse's record in other respects was dismal enough in comparison to the rest of the field to warrant those 80-1 odds, or whether those odds might have constituted value in any event, considering aspects such as form, pace, speed, and so forth, without factoring turf breeding into the equation. (Not saying that it would have ranked at the top of the field, but just wondering whether its winning chances based on those factors were greater than what the horse's odds indicated.)

[gIracing]

he wasn't anyone's lock of the day. god no

but at 80 to one, a horse that is bred to at least TAKE to the grass if not love it to a certain extent, is worth a shot. I tried to throw him out and I culdn't knowing what I knew. now mind you, if he would have raced once on the grass and came in 8 out of 10, I would have thrown him out.


his record wasn't horrible.. but he wa smaking a HUGE jump in class. like 3-4 classes, hence the odds.

also the 80 to one has alot to do with the size of the field.. in a 7 horse field he goes off at 22 to 1

[point given]

How does a horse, who has never raced on the turf, whoose sire has sired a Grade 1 stakes winner ont he turf, and multiple winners on turf, and the damsire himself won the Grade 1 Secretariat S (which is on turf) and himself has sired a number of turf runners....

go off at 80 ton 1?

Mind you.. I didn't think he should have been the FAV (I'm talking about Bright Perdiction)... but 80 to 1? That's just unreal. needless to say I had him.. off pedigree alone.

it pays to know your pedigrees.. that's most handicappers downfall.. they don't bother looking at a horse and look for reasons to toss a horses and it comes back to bight them in the @@@.

horse shouldn't been over 15 to 1 and even that was a stretch given he never raced on turf.

Well, first off a hearty congratulations on your score.

In the future, if you see a horse who is 50/1 ML and you think is grossly overlaid in his ML could you please educate the uneducated masses before the race ? :faint:

[gIracing]

that's why you don't look at M/L odds.. that's one person's opinion.

lol, but will do.

[point given]

I'm a bit confused here. The rider of the 12 - Daytona was hit by the 1 horse - Mostacolli Mort at the top of the stretch. The jock objected and the stewards made an inquiry which is upheld. Aren't the objection and inquiry the same incident ? Why disallow the objection and then uphold their own inquiry ? :confused:

" Claims of foul by the rider of DAYTONA against MOSTACOLLI MORT and HOIST THE SAIL for alleged interference leaving the second turn were not allowed by the stewards, who ruled there was insufficient evidence to warrant a disqualification. Following a stewards' inquiry, MOSTACOLLI MORT was disqualified and placed fourth for interference in the stretch "

[Overlay]

I haven't seen the race, but it sounds like they might be discussing two separate incidents, with the jockey's claim being one (which the stewards disallowed), and another one concerning a separate (later?) incident in the stretch initiated by the stewards themselves based on their observation of the race.

[gIracing]

yes.. I think what happened is the 1's jockey made an objection for the sole reason to try to keep his placing... but he was all over the damn track.

that pissed me off to no end because I had a 1-3 exacta box in that race...and I think the 3 was going to win, he ahd the most momentum.. then


assumign you didn't watch the race:

they came around the turn for the strech, the 1 lugged OUT causing him to move the 6 wich hit the 3 so hard he almost turned sideways.. it was ovbious someone was coming down it was just a amtter of who.

The 6 also impeeded the 12 (I think..someone impeeded the 12) and a nother foul was loddged.

the 3 had the biggest gripe out of all...I mean he hit the corner like a freight train, at 19 to 1 and got hit so bad he didn't clip heels... he got turned sideways. and still held on for 4th, and got bumped up for 3rd.

anyone wanting a live horse next out.. that's it because I thought he had that race in the bag heading into the stretch.


it was so bad, I wouldn't be suprised if they would have said "you know what...i'm done, leave it all alone".. there could have been about 6 objections loddged if they wanted to.

[point given]

I haven't seen the race, but it sounds like they might be discussing two separate incidents, with the jockey's claim being one (which the stewards disallowed), and another one concerning a separate (later?) incident in the stretch initiated by the stewards themselves based on their observation of the race.

It was the same incident. The jock objected to the 1 and 3. Clearly the 1 knocked the 12 sideways, I didnot see anything with the 3. So, they could have disallowed the obj. on the 3, and allowed it on the 1, and then they took the 1 down for their own objection anyway. I started to think that maybe if the objection was upheld then the 1 would have to be placed in back of the 12, who finished midpack. As it was , they placed the 1 horse 4th, I thought the horse had to be knocked down below the horse he fouled though. Never saw notes like this before on the same incident. Very weird. Maybe they wanted to get their stewards numbers up for the DQ, so it looked like they were doing their job. Weird.

[gIracing]

how could you not see the 3? I don't think the 1 is the one that hit him.. may have been the 6.. I'm going to have to go back and see what happened.. but the big grey horse that got kocked sideways is pretty hard to miss

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I had BRIGHT PREDICTION on my $72 Pik6 ticket going two deep in leg 3. I had to listen to Schrupp go on how impossible it was to be alive, but at the time, I was 3 for 3 on the ticket. I missed the next leg, got DQ'd in the next, and hit the nightcap. 4 of 6 with the $170 and $22 winners on it. Same story as Friday when I had 4 of 6 on a $72 ticket with a $45 and $17 winner on it. Both times, I was focusing the Pik6, though I caught a couple of savers on Friday. Today, I came up totally empty. The lament of the Pik6 player.

Put Jesus Mendoza on your radar. He is a tremendous trainer with horses that just don't figure, but BRIGHT PREDICTION was going on the turf for the first time, so the class hike was tempered. I don't see him winning tomorrow's 6th race with his filly, but I automatically give his entrants immediate contender status, and have been all meeting. His average paramutuel when he wins is about 25-1 now with 6 wins on the meeting.

I'm thinking that I might bump the investment up a couple notches tomorrow.

All the best to all while wading into the very deep pool.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[gIracing]

people think that just because someone has a mic in front of their faces they are expert handicappers.

same here... I don't know what it was about the next 2 legs.. they wrne't longshots.. I just went a different way..

[PurplePower]

I don't dispute the influence of breeding on turf preference and ability, but I would be curious (without having the past performances in front of me) whether the horse's record in other respects was dismal enough in comparison to the rest of the field to warrant those 80-1 odds, or whether those odds might have constituted value in any event, considering aspects such as form, pace, speed, and so forth, without factoring turf breeding into the equation. (Not saying that it would have ranked at the top of the field, but just wondering whether its winning chances based on those factors were greater than what the horse's odds indicated.)As I'm sure many of y'all do I went back to look for the answer to some of those same questions Overlay, and these were the factors I realized I overlooked. Bright Prediction was 8-of-9 in top 3 last year and 3-of-4 going 8.5 furlongs. In addition to first turf and going 9 furlongs for first time, the switch to Chavez was noteworthy. "Chop" may not be as good as the bug boy, but that still could have been plus factor as Chavez brought Belmont Park distance experience to the saddle. I didn't use this gelding primarily because his best speed figures were lower than the worst recent speed figures of at least half the field - but that didn't take into account the surface and distance switch.

[Cratos]

How does a horse, who has never raced on the turf, whoose sire has sired a Grade 1 stakes winner ont he turf, and multiple winners on turf, and the damsire himself won the Grade 1 Secretariat S (which is on turf) and himself has sired a number of turf runners....

go off at 80 ton 1?

Mind you.. I didn't think he should have been the FAV (I'm talking about Bright Perdiction)... but 80 to 1? That's just unreal. needless to say I had him.. off pedigree alone.

it pays to know your pedigrees.. that's most handicappers downfall.. they don't bother looking at a horse and look for reasons to toss a horses and it comes back to bight them in the @@@.

horse shouldn't been over 15 to 1 and even that was a stretch given he never raced on turf.

Most race odds are heavily influenced by the horse’s last start (except first time starters). Therefore looking at the DRf result chart of the race and not at the past performances, it appears that with 2 horses in the race being winners in their last starts and 2 others finishing 2nd; and one other finishing 3rd in their last starts, Bright Prediction being a non-winner at the mile and over distance in 2007 and going 1 ¼ mile this time out while finishing 8th in his last start, he was destined to be a longshot. 85-1 might have been too long, but in an eleven horse field, odds stratify upward quickly.

[steel6061]

give me a break. The horse was coming out of a 10k claimer, in terrible form, and nothing showed he was going to run that kind of race, I don't care if he had the best european turf breeding in the world. I'm glad you had it, I like anyone to hit an 80-1 shot even if it isn't me, but don't come here and act like a hot shot because you liked the breeding. He was 80-1 for a reason and ran the race of his life. Tell me you saw some hidden form or something and I'll tell you great job.

[gIracing]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/bright+prediction

when you have within 3 blood generations a Prince of Wales winner (Dance Smartly), Mr. Prospector, a horse who has sired world class turf horses such as chester house, plus so many more that it would take me about 30 mintues to get my thoughts together, Danzing, who sired Danehill, who is one of the best turf sires EVER, and who is a GREAT turf sire in his own right, Olympio who won the Secretariat which is a Grade 1 Turf race, and has sired multiple turf horses,.. do I need ot go on?



he was 80 to 1 becuase of people like you who don't know crap about bloodlines nor care to learn and look for any reaosn to toss a horse becuase they are too lazy to do any real handicapping beyond what Beyer says, and the fact that it was a 13 horse field didn't hurt either.

[toetoe]

If Barrington Harvey had the mount, I gaw-rawn-TEE I'd have that nag. :D The surprise is that he ran only 2/5 of a second off of Citronnade's time. I expected about 15/5 or 20/5. :confused:

[gIracing]

I wouldn't even call what Citronnade did a race.. she's had more work galloping in the morning

[Dr Win]

I got DQ'd in 8th, was my single
uuuuuuuuuuuuggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhh

[boomman]

give me a break. The horse was coming out of a 10k claimer, in terrible form, and nothing showed he was going to run that kind of race, I don't care if he had the best european turf breeding in the world. I'm glad you had it, I like anyone to hit an 80-1 shot even if it isn't me, but don't come here and act like a hot shot because you liked the breeding. He was 80-1 for a reason and ran the race of his life. Tell me you saw some hidden form or something and I'll tell you great job.

steel: I will never hesitate to give a guy "his due" when he comes up with a nice price horse (in fact I enjoy seeing that)...but I have an idea: Let's make sure that this horse passes his drug test first before we instantly acknowledge that he was able to have a 100% form reversal when simply going to the turf! And gi: Just a hint: I know a little bit about breeding too!:D

Boomer

[gIracing]

steel: I will never hesitate to give a guy "his due" when he comes up with a nice price horse (in fact I enjoy seeing that)...but I have an idea: Let's make sure that this horse passes his drug test first before we instantly acknowledge that he was able to have a 100% form reversal when simply going to the turf! And gi: Just a hint: I know a little bit about breeding too!:D

Boomer

sadly enough, wouldn't be the first time

[GaryG]

Well, if you're gonna red board it might as well be an 85-1 shot.....:lol:

[Greyfox]

# 1 'Mort was , as it turned out, clearly the best horse in the race.
I had bet # 6.
However, Pedroza was too impatient with "Mort" and ended up getting too close to the horse on his front left, and then veered out to his right interfering with the grey. There was no other call to make but to take him down. I collected on # 6.

[gIracing]

I respecftuly disagree.. I think the 3 had the steem going down the stretch and ended up doing doing the hokey pokey when he got bounced around and still finished a bang up 4th....

however I had the 1 as well

[tholl]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/bright+prediction

when you have within 3 blood generations a Prince of Wales winner (Dance Smartly), Mr. Prospector, a horse who has sired world class turf horses such as chester house, plus so many more that it would take me about 30 mintues to get my thoughts together, Danzing, who sired Danehill, who is one of the best turf sires EVER, and who is a GREAT turf sire in his own right, Olympio who won the Secretariat which is a Grade 1 Turf race, and has sired multiple turf horses,.. do I need ot go on?



he was 80 to 1 becuase of people like you who don't know crap about bloodlines nor care to learn and look for any reaosn to toss a horse becuase they are too lazy to do any real handicapping beyond what Beyer says, and the fact that it was a 13 horse field didn't hurt either.

I tried to make a case for him when I saw he was first time turf, but fact of the matter is that both Dance Brightly and Olympio have proved to be below average turf sires.
However, looking back , have to admit that I had forgotten that Olympio did indeed win a G1 turf. Looked it up and it was in fact the Hollywood Derby but he was second in the Secretariat, beaten just a head. Impressive turf record from just 2 tries. Looking again at his form it still seems a stretch..
Anyway, congrats on finding him.

[gIracing]

yeah, it was by no means a lock or antyhing.. I mean we weren't talking about Theatrical with strawberry road on the bottom or anything but still.. it was there

[dutchboy]

Redboarding I guess. But the horse was claimed in 4 of his last 10 races. He was the favorite in his last race. Highest odds in the last 5 races was 7-1. Avg odds last 3 races was 4.3 Why the 50-1 ML seems like a better question that going off at 80-1

The horse really has never been close to winning in his last 10 races but always was well bet except 2 races. Wonder why whoever kept betting a horse for 8 of 10 races that appeared to never be close to winning decided that this was the race to not bet unless they used him in p3 or p4.

I don't know how it would work going forward but I once read that someone should base their wagers for a race based on overlays based on avg odds of the last 2-3 races. Theory is that fairly smart people are betting to establish past odds but they give up on the horse and don't bet the next time if that horse did not run well last race.