CRC 4.5f pace

[county farm]

hello to all,
I have a significant change in the pace call time marks for the 4.5f distance at the Calderracecourse. This distance is used by the 2y olds at CRC. The reported times this year are ~1.52 seconds slower than the historical expected times. The pace1 calls are within an acceptable(1 length slow)range.
I cannot get an answer from the CRC admin or thier parent company Churchhill Downs Inc. Does anyone have contact with the CRC track supervisor?
This season's pace times are about 9 lengths slow. It feels like a timer has been changed. The slow times cut across the 2y classes from MSP on down.
If I had hard knowledge of physical track/timer changes I could immediately change my pace expectations. Without an explanation I have to avoid 2y wagers until the longer distances are used this fall. That's too bad. CRC is known as a 2y old developemental venue.
Is there anyone else concerned with the pace calls for 2y old racing at CRC??
Thanks,
County Farm.

[Murph]

Here are the 4.5F averages for CRC that we have recorded
over the past 2 years.

ALL Male 2YO races 2006 and 2007
19 / 177 races were found for criteria you have defined
Date From Date To F1 F2 F3
2006-04-25 2006-10-09 22.77 47.22 53.88

8 / 177 races were found for criteria you have defined
Date From Date To F1 F2 F3
2007-04-27 2007-06-11 23.18 47.51 53.93


ALL Filly 2YO races 2006 and 2007
22 / 177 races were found for criteria you have defined
Date From Date To F1 F2 F3
2006-05-05 2006-10-19 23.02 47.62 54.32

4 / 177 races were found for criteria you have defined
Date From Date To F1 F2 F3
2007-05-13 2007-06-09 23.08 47.41 53.89


Murph

[county farm]

thanks for the raw times murph,
Your raw figures have given a glimpse of what I am finding. The 2nd pace has moved from 47.22 in 2006 to 47.51 in 2007. That is just under 2 raw lengths of time.
Is it possible to contrast the 2003 to 2006 grouping against 2007 alone?
I beleive the gap will get even wider.

I also have a widening of the P1 ave and the P2 ave. (2 yr males) Historically speaking the 4.5f 1st quarter is faster than the 2nd quarter. The 2yr olds are slowed entering and completing the turn.
My (2003-2006) P1 ave with daily variants applied is 23.01sec. The P2 ave(2003-2006) with daily variant is 46.82. That's an average turn time of 23.81 with the daily variants applied.

Now in 2007 (with daily variant) the P1 is (2y males) 23.17, the P2 is 47.89. Do you notice what happens to the raw time value this year? This is happening because the CRC surface is playing faster in 2007. The turn time this year is 24.72 with the daily variant initialized. That is almost 1 second slower than the historical turn time average with the daily pace variants applied.

CRC is a faster surface this season. I also know as the distances are shorter the daily pace variant increases its application intensity. Thus the CRC fast daily 2nd call pace numbers at all sprint distances this year are hurting the P2 times recorded at 4.5f. Still the adjusted turn times should reflect the dynamics of the track shape. I propose this year's loss of 1 second to the historical 4.5f turn time indicates a physical plant/ timing change.

[RonTiller]

I don't see the changes you are seeing. Here are the average F2 (4f) race fractions broken down by year for several years - CRC 4.5f dirt 2 year olds:

2007....47.53
2006....47.56
2005....47.60
2004....47.47
2003....47.54
2002....47.53
2001....47.67
2000....47.69
1999....47.63
1998....47.53
1997....47.65
1996....47.12
1995....47.81
1994....47.41

I don't see that these times indicate a recent physical plant/ timing change. Neither do I see the ~1.52 seconds slower than the historical expected times you referred to. Am I missing something? Wouldn't be the first time.

Ron Tiller
HDW