Pick 4's

[pic6vic]

Here's a question for all the pick 4 players.

1 How much do you play on the average on the pick 4's?.

2 Do you play a straight ticket?. By this I mean one ticket.


Just curious

Here is the way I structure my pick 4's.

If the paly is $24.00 or under I will play a straight ticket.

When Playing larger tickets, let's say 4 horses in each race for a cost of $256.00

If I like a horse in each race and I think I can hit 2 of the 4 horses I will paly a ticket with all the horses in the $256 ticket, but 2 of my keys must win.the cost is $67.00

Let's say I need hit one of my keys with any of the other horses in the $256 ticket. This will cost $151 or a savings of $105.

The only difference is I have to hit one of my keys to collect.

Of course if I don't have the winner included in my alternates i also lose, but so would my $256 ticket.

Just something to throw out for pick 4 players.

[Speed Figure]

The ticket i almost always play is my $45 "Spectacular" 5 x 1 x 3 x 3 in any order.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by pic6vic
If I like a horse in each race and I think I can hit 2 of the 4 horses I will paly a ticket with all the horses in the $256 ticket, but 2 of my keys must win.the cost is $67.00


Usually, when I play P4's I force myself to hit 2 "A choices" in order to win. If I don't think that I can do that I just don't play it.

My favorite $24 ticket is 1x2x3x4 with 4 alive in the back leg.

[GR1@HTR]

To have an efficient ticket, you really should have 1 single. Having 2 horses on a leg vs 1 doubles the price of the ticket. I personally prefer about a $80ish to $100 ticket formula consisting of 5 tickets. If I hit all my A horses I can cash 5 times ($1) or if I hit 3 A horses and 1 B then I cash once...

[Derek2U]

I like your P4 strategy; I got to think about it for a bit. Almost
always in a P4 I have 2 DEFS ....

[MV McKee]

I'm not really a dedicated serial bet player, but it seems that perhaps the race sequence should dictate the construct of the wager. I don't have any guidelines for how I construct my P4's, but I do have one or two for when I will and will not play the P4.

1) I NEVER even consider playing a P4 if, through my own handicapping, I would consider singling more than 1 horse that is a likely favorite.

2) If ANY of the three legs contain a horse highly likely to be 6/5 or less, I need to be able to shoot enough holes in him to justify going at least 2 deep in that race.

3)My primary price hopeful(s) cannot all be in the last leg.

Aside from those few guidelines, I have used just about every configuration I can imagine, dictated by the likely opportunities within each event (race).

I came to the conclusions in rules 1-3 above through some analysis I do on payoffs that I term "Effective Takeout". One of the reasons I love the sport of HorseRacing, and the parimutual system as a whole is that no matter how adept your competition (fellow horseplayers) become, the worst possible scenario one will ever encounter is that the "house" edge is actually takeout plus breakage. For me, the "effective takeout" is an ROI that takes into account not only the takeout and breakage, but the misappropriation of the money in a given pool, sometimes under particular circumstances. While (for example) some people may look at the 12% P3 takeout at Sam Houston as a great investment op, if many savvy players (thinking along the same lines) invest in that pool, the effective takeout may be as high as
-5%, because the distribution of money in the pools reflects the actual results distribution so accurately. But then on the other hand, perhaps Turf Paradise Trifectas with their stratospheric takeout may actually have an effective takeout of +5% because the money in the pools is so misappropriated.
Anyway, the explanation behind how I calculate this number is a bit long-winded (not to mention sleep-inducing). It is not effective in calculating effective takeouts for serial bets (P3, P4 etc.), because you have to accomodate for late scratches and the subsequent reassignment of those wagers to the favorite. This information is not available in the 3 years of equibase charts that I use to calculate these numbers. P6's are actually impossible to calculate beacuse of the carryovers, which are precluded from even occuring in the schema I use to analyze the pools.
Enough babble, way back in the beginning of this semi-coherent posting I mentioned I had 3 guidelines for my P4 play. The reasons behind #'s 1 & 2 should be relatively apparent to most (why play the P4 when it is actually a P3?). I came to the conclusion in #3 while working with the "Effective Takeouts" stats I alluded to (ad-nauseum) earlier. Nearly every time the only true price (outside of top 3 favs) horse occured in the last leg (P3 OR P4), the serial bet payout was (not slightly) less than would be expected. I realize "less than expected" is a meaningless, ambiguous term, but it saves me another long-winded explanation. I can certainly understand why this likely happens, but, prior to "doing the math" I never accomodated for it in my play.
Anyway, hope anyone reading this is still awake, and above all, I hope it gave you at least a temporary pause for thought.

Michael

[Larry Hamilton]

Finally, a player without a "hope, wish, IHO, think" in his post. YOur post is long-winded, but if that is what it takes to post the TRUTH, then that's what it takes. Refreshing Michael, post more often, please.

[hurrikane]

Michael...like your post. Only place I would offer an opinion is rule #1. I have played many a chalky p4 (using GR1s strategy) and walked away with 800 or 1000 cashing 5 tickets. In fact it is the only way I can seem to get any money out of the MD tracks where fields are short and chalk is king.
I see why you would say why play a P4 when it is really a P3. I think you play it because the P4 pool is overlayed at many tracks.

I think that I'm wishfully hoping that this is just IMHO. :D

[rrbauer]

When playing P3's and P4's my rules have nothing to do with "template" tickets. They have to do with the nature of the races that make up the P3/P4. I'm a sprint and turf guy. I love maiden sprints. So what's important to me is the race mix. I don't like low-level claimers. They're usually a bunch of cripples, also-rans and one, or two, decent runners. Attaining an edge from handicapping is unlikely.

No more than, either one low-level claiming sprint; or, one dirt route (2-turn), in a P4 mix for me. Neither in a P3 mix.

If I can isolate a set of races that I'm good at in a P3/P4 mix then I handicap them from a "where's the value" perspective. If it turns out that in the race mix there is one horse that is jumping out at me via my handicapping info and looks like it will be a price I will bet "into" that horse from earlier legs, but I will not bet "from" that horse into later legs. I just bet it in the single-race pools if it's in a leadoff leg.

The thread is about P4's so I'll drop the 3's from here on. I don't try to pick winners until I've handicapped all 4 races and identified contenders. Then I grade the contenders, either A or B. I can have multiples of both. If all of my A-contenders are chalk, say 4-1 or less, then from my perspective, there is little value. I might structure a play that stipulates that from the four races that three A's must win and hope that a pricey B completes the package...I won't chase one of those with much money.

What I'm looking for is one, or more, A's that will be nice prices (4-1 or more); and, one, or more, probable favorites that are either B's, or not used in my contender analysis. And, if I can make a case against a horse that I think many players will be singling then that's icing on the cake.

From there I use a computer program that allows me to stipulate, say at least two A's must win across the four races. This tosses all combinations with more than two B's. If I can get a play put together for less than $200 ($1 bets) then I go ahead and make it. It will usually have six tickets, although if I do some additional manipulation to knock out certain favorite-dominated combinations it could take more tickets to make the play. In some circumstances I will go a little higher, but more likely, I will go back through the contender list and try to get rid of one B contender. If I can't get the list pared down, then I pass on the P4. Of course, if one of my A's is a "single" then it's easy to cover the play with less than $200. But, I don't have too many "singles". Maybe once in every five plays.

This approach fits my handicapping style, allows me to concentrate on races that are my strength and offers some saving constraints to my bankroll. I seldom play P4's outside SoCal and do not play them at all if I know the pool will be less than $80k.

[so.cal.fan]

A friend of mine, who is quite successful at rolling pick 3's and pick 4s.......bets as the races come up, but he does have one rule.
If he likes the favorite......he singles it, he doesn't spread.
Of course, he most often likes to bet against the favorite, if possible. His theory is that if you are a good handicapper and you really like the favorite.....don't waste money spreading here, just single it....or move on to the next triple.

[pic6vic]

RICHARD

Great post.

The reason I say this is I agree with your style. I NEVER play a straight ticket. I will always use keys and the value must be there.
Also it gives you a lot more coverage for less money when your keys win. This does not mean the keys are SINGLES.

Good Luck