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View Full Version : BEL-6-27-R6 ---join in


the_fat_man
06-26-2007, 05:59 PM
Yet another turf race, I know and a sprint at that. This time I've checked to make sure I got the distance right.

But this is yet another intriguing race.

Let me just touch on some of the players

Granny Franny: off since the poly try at KEE against Mini Sermon, which was her 1st race back since last Aug ---gets Gomez so Weaver must think he has something here ---since this isn't a Samyn off, Gomez on angle, I'm not biting. ANd even if I were, the odds wouldn't work.

The others are all coming out of the same maiden claiming race --won by Innovator.

Bunny Junction: Seems like just the type of horse the FatMan has been playing lately. See the FatChart attached. Significant gain the last split in a race where they didn't really come back (they didn't exactly burn it coming home) and adds a furlong. She only passed tired horses, however; would've been nice if she actually got someone late. Gets the MiniANCHOR off and Coa gets on. Hill is prone to falling asleep on horses, and this one was no exception. On the plus side, (or negative, if you like her) she got a rail trip around the track until very late when Hill shot her off the hedge and wide around horses. 5 year old mare making 2nd start.

Lost in the Dark: broke out and then gunned to the lead from the 10 post in a 21.97 qtr. Was there till just about when they entered and then was not asked at all. Seems to be distance challenged but she's here going an extra furlong. Why?

Happy Tears: broke out along with LinD, sat a relatively nice trip outside
and was beaten up in the stretch in 1st race since November. Jara gets off and Hill gets on, which means that she'll have a 'relaxing' trip.

Ivory Star: sat a nice stalking trip, surged to the lead, and couldn't handle the fitter Innovator in the lane. Of course, part of this exercise is to kick around the idea that Innovator will repeat.

how cliche
06-26-2007, 06:21 PM
Hi the_fat_man. Are there free pp's to look at for this particular race? If so I'll take a stab at it. I know nothing, not anything about Belmont, but I'd like to try anyhow.

the_fat_man
06-26-2007, 06:23 PM
Check over at (http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm)

I believe that Weaver's PPs are free

how cliche
06-26-2007, 07:25 PM
Thank you for those pp's. Slow at the office today, so I quick 'capped it and noticed a few items. Granted it would help a lot to know something, anything about the connections.

I dislike the following because these are young fillies who either have an auction price or a stud fee that is too high to be put up for the tag this early in their careers. It says their owners are possibly giving up on them. 3 Fast Read, 4 Granny Fanny, 2B Frozen Prospect, 1 Golden Operator. Now that I've said that watch those runners make up 3 parts of the super, including the w/p slots.

Boy that June 8 race has the look of a negative key doesn't it? But on a quick glance, man the rest of this field who didn't race there is just as iffy. I note that the 5 year old, #5 Bunny Junction didn't run so bad on debut and with some 2nd out improvement could get it done. The chart note says " Going well late." Trainer's stats are better both with 2ts and 2nd turf. Bunny Junction is owned by a family member of the trainer(wife?) & has a low auction price that is more appropriate for mdclm. Every horse in the field is a 3yo except her. Why did it take so long to debut? She's a marginal top pick for me, but I wouldn't bet her with even someone else's money. Best of luck.

Robert Fischer
06-26-2007, 07:48 PM
Golden Operator may have had some problems, but she isn't necessarily a toss here.

I have to some homework on this one

1. watch the race... see if she was really 18 back at the 4 furlong point...
2. google Laudati ,Harry S Patton, Darlene Bilinski
3. have a beer
4. look at the chart from last race and see who she was coupled with at .9
....

anyway she has a slim chance to contend on the grass.
The 4511 looks solid luzzi may or may not have something in the 9

Robert Fischer
06-26-2007, 11:10 PM
[QUOTE=

1. watch the race... see if she was really 18 back at the 4 furlong point...

- She was. late velocity was really nothing exciting, especially combined with lack of speed. JJ may have slammed this one out of the gate, depends if you watch head-on- a little hard to tell and not that important.

2. google Laudati ,Harry S Patton, Darlene Bilinski

-laudati- on the Contessa team - she can get up and give the horses a good workout she handles some at Monmouth and will handle the contessa suspension.
Bilinski -Waldorf farm
same owner/trainers as Daytime Promise

3. have a beer
ahhhhhhh

4. look at the chart from last race and see who she was coupled with at .9
=Sun Shower
....




not really a win candidate, but could easily run a better race here on the grass.

samyn on the green
06-27-2007, 05:32 AM
However Granny Fanny looks powerful as the chalk. The only one to hit the zactor at a route, key in a 7F contest. Weaver reaches for a top jock.

There are only three betting options in this race. Granny Fanny if you believe. If you are a non believer in the Fanny then it is an all button as their is no separating the rest. The final wagering option is the old derriere zacta box of Granny Fanny/Fine Behind.

fiveouttasix
06-27-2007, 05:39 AM
#6 Waymint M/L 20-1
I will take a shot on this longshot shortening up to 7f.

KingChas
06-27-2007, 09:18 AM
Ivory Star would be the pick but pp-12 no bet.
Granny Fanny if runs back to Spa debut? no bet

I'll take 2 horses that I'm looking to show improvement.
The old lady in the group Bunny Junction.2nd race improvement/like workout.
And a longshot Taintedlove off the layoff/new trainer/ 1st time lasix.

Best of Luck to all ;)

how cliche
06-27-2007, 10:01 AM
The old lady in the group Bunny Junction.2nd race improvement/like workout.

About the workout, I noticed it too but didn't write it out. A question. Is it characteristic for the majority of Belmont based horsemen to space their charges' workouts so sparsely? Every filly in here either has no workouts or if they do they have one every 3-4 weeks. This is 180 degrees opposite of the rigorous tab schedules most conditioners use in CA. Just curious.

the_fat_man
06-27-2007, 11:47 AM
I don't know how many of you watch the replay headons. Bunny Junction had a rail trip last out with Hill; but Hill did something interesting. He SHARPLY swung off the rail, around horses, to get to the outside and clear, just before they hit the wire. Now, the reason he did this is because the horse that was on the rail ahead of him, never moved off the rail the length of the stretch, and there were other horses to her outside, and thus Hill would've run up their asses when they stood up after crossing the wire. This indicates a horse that is full of run.This is something that is somewhat typical in turf races.

Not saying this means BET her. But she gets a better jock, more distance, and, probably, a good pace today.

Robert Fischer
06-27-2007, 12:27 PM
I will wait and see if I can get the 4 or 11 over any of the 4,11,1,5,9 at a decent exacta overlay. This is a tough race. Bunny has an outside shot. 11 should be best but is inconsistent, 4 may have major problems?
Maybe the 9 has raced itself into shape finally and is due to return to the grass.

toetoe
06-27-2007, 12:31 PM
3, Fast Read. If 1A draws in, also a possibility.

HEY DUDE
06-27-2007, 01:00 PM
I like the 5 - Bunny Junction and 3 - Fast Read


For exotics, got to use the 4 and 11.

PaceAdvantage
06-27-2007, 03:29 PM
I like Bunny Junction here. Nice jock switch (although second call for Coa), excellent closing number in last race, plus getting another furlong today.

The only problem is I don't see any sort of decent pace developing up front to enhance Bunny Junction's late run, which makes the current 5-1 odds quite borderline.

Robert Fischer
06-27-2007, 03:35 PM
my only wager here is $1 exacta 4,11 over the 9

Tee
06-27-2007, 03:36 PM
I'll start with,

#2 - Lost In The Dark - Catches post 10 in her debut at Belmont. Did at least show some spd before backing up. I think we can forgive that effort coupling new surroundings with the bad draw.

#3 Fast Read - Shortens up in distance today, goes from Luzzi back to Desormeaux, Blinkers On, 3rd off the bench & dropping in class. Looks like they are pulling out all the stops hoping for a little something out of her today.

#4 Granny Franny - Guess one would have to like the debut. Bad post, better company & polytrack in the clunker at Keeneland. Might be able to forgive her for that poor effort. Looks a little light in the worktab to me, but I don't know Weaver that much so. Gomez takes the mount so she must not be that bad?

#5 Bunny Junction - Not crazy about 5 year old mare making just their 2nd career start. Doesn't look like there is much talent in here so is wouldn't be a total surprise if she gets in the mix.

#11 Ivory Star - Nice effort last out, wondering if her post position is going to hurt today. Do not really like her chances on the win end at the current 5/2 offering.

Looks like its Granny's race to lose, I would try to get the 2 & 3 into the mix for value. If it comes any combo of 4,11 & 5 I won't have it , wouldn't ever play it that way.

Robert Fischer
06-27-2007, 03:42 PM
whattit come in ?

Light
06-27-2007, 03:48 PM
Bunny Junction.Nice call TFM,PA and HD. These type of prepped horses are my favorite plays. Dont want to see a strong finish or you'll more likely get a bounce and no value.Just a nice hidden workout like TFM stated.

the_fat_man
06-27-2007, 03:54 PM
For anyone who didn't see the race, they took the winner out of the gate after she'd been loaded and looked her over a bit. Suspected they might scratch her.

Didn't EXPECT to see her with the pace but wasn't that surprised by it. And, she was in hand, so there wasn't really a doubt that she'd hold on. She also ran DEAD STRAIGHT in the lane, never leaving the hedge, under both right and left whip; a good indication that she might just have another one in her.

Robert Fischer
06-27-2007, 03:55 PM
alright Bunny Junction. She did it!:D
Paid good good to win and in the trifecta.

Not the greatest race in the world, but it was fun to go through the process, and take a guess at what might happen.

how cliche
06-27-2007, 09:36 PM
made the winner the favorite, the overwhelming favorite. Only 10 of us contributed our prerace thoughts on the matter. But of those 10, 5 of us chose Bunny Junction. Good job group.

KingChas
06-27-2007, 11:01 PM
All over her. Way to go gang. :ThmbUp:
Did anyone notice the excellent pick-3 payout Bunny Junction capped off? :cool: